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Reply To: Week 3 – "Super Sunday Football" Service Plays 9/27/15

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Brady Kannon | NFL Side – Sunday, Sep 27 2015 8:30PM

488 DET 3.5(-115) vs 487 DEN – single-dime bet

Analysis: I don’t necessarily want to play this at +3 and you should not have to as I already see one +3.5 with minimal juice. +3.5 should show up by game time if not sooner. Don’t rush to the window on this one, wait until the right number shows.

The Broncos are definitely a good team and the defense is very good but the offense has been mediocre and the team has benefited greatly from turnovers here early in the season. The defense intercepted Joe Flacco twice in Game One but on offense, Manning threw one interception and failed to ever get his team into the endzone, while enduring four sacks. In Game Two, Denver got rare turnovers from Alex Smith in the red zone and a huge late game fumble from Jamaal Charles, winning the turnover battle in this game 5-to-1.

The Lions broke out to an early lead in Game One against The Chargers and things went sideways in the second half. Against Minnesota in Game Two, it was not surprising that Adrian Peterson came out firing after such a poor performance in Game One. This along with losing the turnover battle 3-to-1, led to a Lions defeat.. but against a team tonight that has an offense that has not been incredibly productive, and a running game that has yet to get on track, I expect Detroit to be able to turn things around in its ho ™me opener. The perception is that Denver is 2-and-0 and looks like the same ole Peyton Manning led team but reality is that the defense is covering up for many of the offense’s inefficiencies. The Broncos have been pretty lucky so far in the turnover column, and The Lions have been unlucky. I expect this to turn around tonight and when that does, it will help this Detroit team stay in the game. If they do not win outright, I expect it to be inside of 3-points, either way.

Lions Coach, Jim Caldwell has been known for starting out the season hot. In the first four weeks of the season prior to this year, he is 9-and-3 SU and 8-and-4 ATS.. and 5-and-0 SU at home along with 4-and-1 ATS. Earlier this Summer when the first lines came out on this game, it went up as Pick ‘Em.. and now it has adjusted to Denver -3 or -3.5. Again, I don’t see these teams being that much different from what the oddsmakers originally projected. If anything, both teams have been less impressive than what we might have predicted, meaning the line should not have moved as much as it has.

I will take The Lions here plus the points but am recommending you try to get +3.5 if you can as this game gets closer to kick off.

Today 0-3 so far,,,,