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PACKERS vs CHIEFS Monday night
3*** NFL Over / Under WINNER
Plays rated 2 thru 5 stars
8:30pm ET – 5:30pm PT / #489
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS
3* Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
I’m aware that tonight’s OU Line is on the high-side (48.5 to 49 points). I’m also aware that ALL THREE Monday night games so far this season have gone ‘UNDER the Total’. And finally, I’m aware that 65% to 67% of all totals action in tonight’s game is on the OVER (squares?). With that said, we’re still very confident in our play. At the very least, I have multiple situations that I queried in our NFL database that point to a high-scoring outcome tonight.
I can’t speak for ‘Joe Public’, BUT I at least have the ‘OU ammo’ to back up our call. Green Bay is a team in which you must almost AUTOMATICALLY play the ‘Over’ when they are at home against non-divisiion competition. The PACKERS have gone a 12-1 O/U in the last 5 years (8-0 O/U in last 4) as non-division home favorites of -4 > Points when the OU Line is > 45 points (like tonight). This situation came up four times last season for Green Bay, In those games, the OVER went a PERFECT 4-0… and the average combined points in those games was a very impressive 65.8!
So when we go into our database and query non-divsion Monday night games in which the host is a hefty favorite and the OU Line is in the high side… we come up with the following: 7-1 O/U since 2004: All MONDAY NIGHT non-division home favorites of > 4 points (PACKERS) when the OU line is 48 or more points.
Kansas City is playing this game with extended rest. They last played 11 days ago on THURSDAY night at home against the Denver Broncos. The OU line in that division game was 41.5 points, and the final scored was 31-24. That game went OVER the Total… and that outcome plays a big part in the situation that I uncovered…
NFL teams playing off a THURSDAY home game that went ‘OVER the Total’ (CHIEFS) have gone a remarkable 32-4 O/U in their next game over the last five years. That’s 89% OVERS. But wait, there’s more. If these teams are on the ROAD in their next game (like KANSAS CITY), the results improve to an unreal 20-0 O/U. That’s 20 ‘OVERS’…and ZERO ‘Unders’! How can we go against that?
Kansas City was a division home favorite in that last game, and lost to Denver OUTRIGHT. These teams usually rebound with a high-scoring result in their next game… 11-1 O/U since 2005: All non-division underdogs of > 1 points (CHIEFS) playing off a SU division home FAVORITE loss… when the OU line is 47 > points.
Green Bay comes into Game Three with a perfect 2-0 record. They won AND covered the spread in each of their first two games…and are now favored at home. Check out how these teams have done from an OU perspective in their next game.
11-2 O/U since 2007: All GAME THREE home favorites of > 3 points off BB SUA and ATS wins in their first two games (PACKERS). When the OU linen in these games is 39 > points, the results improve to 9-1 O/U. We had two more such teams playing YESTERDAY in the NFL in the same situation (Game 3 HF > 3 off BB SUATS wins). Those two teams were the CAROLINA PANTHERS (vs New Orleans) and the ARIZONA CARDINALS (vs San Fran). Guess what? BOTH of those games ALSO went ‘Over the Total’. So we will ride this HIGH-scoring pattern one more time on Monday night.
Green Bay plays in the NFC NORTH Division while Kansas City plays in the AFC WEST Division…
10-1 O/U since 2007: All NFC NORTH favorites (PACKERS) versus any AFC WEST opponent (CHIEFS)… when the OU line is 36 > points.
In 2013 (two years ago), there was a great ‘in-season’ pattern which pointed to a HIGH-scoring outcome in all non-conference games (AFC vs NFC). That pattern came back dow to earth last year. But in SOME situations, we STIL want to look to go OVER (like tonight). In the last three years, NFC Conference favorites of -5 > points (PACKERS) have gone 23-7-2 O/U versus any AFC Conference opponent (CHIEFS) when the OU line is > 40 points.