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Reply To: Week 4 – 'Thursday Night Football' Service Plays 10/1/15

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RAVENS vs STEELERS Thursday night
3*** OVER / UNDER Winner
Plays rated 2 thru 5 stars
8:25pm ET – 5:25pm PT / #101
3*** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL

We are well aware that Pittsburgh is down to their 2nd string QB for this game (Michael Vick). The oddsmakers are ALSO aware. This game opened with an OU line of 46.5 points. That line was on the assumption that Pittsburgh would be ‘playing with a full deck’. We all know now that they will not. As a result, the line has gone down to 43.5 points (as we type this on Wednesday afternoon). With that said, we will STILL be going ‘OVER the Total’ in this game. Having QB Ben Roethlisberger OUT does nothing to ether team’s defense. And this just in: Both defenses BLOW.

We’re talking two of the worst passing defenses in the entire league. Pittsburgh has allowed 260 passing yards per game so far. Baltimore is even WORSE at 291 passing yards per game allowed. That’s ranked #29 in the entire league.
This Pittsburgh / Baltimore SERIES has gone 11-4-1 O/U in the last 17 meetings IN ‘The Steel City’…

PITTSBURGH has gone a PERFECT 6-0-1 O/U since the start of last season at HOME when the OU line is 48 < points. They are also a PERFECT 4-0 O/U after scoring < 15 points in their last game. Finally, they have been installed as home UNDERDOGS four times in the last two seasons. They have gone a PERFECT 4-0 O/U in those games… with a whopping average point total of 65.5 ppg! BALTIMORE has gone a PERFECT 4-0-1 O/U in their last five division ROAD games. Also 16-5-1 O/U on the road versus any opponent with a winning home record. The fact that the ROAD team is laying points (Balt -2.5 to -3) in this Thursday night has a BIG impact on our call on the ‘OVER’. That’s because: NFL ROAD FAVORITES on a THURSDAY have home 11-1-1 O/U in the last four years (BALTIMORE) when the OU line is < 49 points. In the last two seasons, these games have gone a PERFECT 9-0-1 O/U with an average of 50.5 combined points per game. Also, THURSDAY teams who are WINLESS on the season (like the RAVENS) have gone a PERFECT 5-0 O/U in the last three seasons (51.8 combined PPG). Systems and Situations that apply to this particular Game of the Season (#4)… GAME FOUR winless division favorites of < 4 points (RAVENS) have gone 6-1 O/U… GAME FOUR home teams who are 2-1 (.667) on the season (STEELERS) have gone 10-1 O/U in the last four years… Baltimore comes in with a 0-3 record on the year. They lost as a home favorite last week (vs Cincy) and as a road favorite the week before that (vs Oakland)… 9-1-1 O/U since 2006: All NFL favorites of < 10 points off a SU home FAV loss… and a SU road FAV loss (BALTIMORE). This one seals the deal for us: DIVISION road favorites in the first half of the season are almost AUTOMATIC ‘Over’ plays… 17-2 O/U last two years: All GAME EIGHT or less DIVISION road favorites of < 13 points with an OU line of 48 < points (RAVENS). These teams went 9-1 O/U last year… and already a PERFECT 3-0 O/U THIS season (GREEN BAY vs Chicago in Week One / SEATTLE vs St Louis in Week One / INDIANAPOLIS vs Tennessee in Week Three!).

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