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Reply To: NCAAF Week 5 – Previews, Articles, Info. Saturday 10/3/15

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2015 College Football

Top 13 games
Louisville
are 0-3 vs I-A teams, with pair of losses by FG, but they’ve covered last ten tries as road underdog. Cardinals allowed 206 rushing ypg in losses; they beat a I-AA team last week, face Florida State next, so loss here would be dicey. Louisville (-18) beat NC State 30-18 LY, in first ACC matchup. Wolfpack is 4-0 against parade of stiffs, so hard to tell much about them; they’re 5-5 as home favorites under Doeren.

Oklahoma had last week off, plays Texas next; they won last three tilts with West Virginia by 1-9-12 points (1-2 vs spread). WVU lost 13-7 in Norman (+21) two years ago; they’re 12-6 as road dogs since ’05, 6-4 in Holgorsen era. Sooners outgained Tulsa 52-38 last game (TY 773-603); Tulsa threw for 427 yards. Oklahoma is 9-12 in last 30 games as a home fave. TY was 513-510 WV in LY’s 45-33 Sooner win in Morgantown.

Wisconsin won last three games with Iowa by 1-19-2 points; underdogs are 7-5 in last 12 series games. Hawkeyes won three of last four visits to Madison (4-0 vs spread) but haven’t been here since ’09. Iowa won only road game 31-17 at Iowa State; since ’10, they’re 4-8 as road underdogs. Badgers outscored three stiffs by combined 114-3 since getting spanked 35-17 by Alabama in neutral field opener; they’re 19-12 as home faves.

Home side won two of three Miss State-Texas A&M games; Aggies won two of three, with average total of 70.7. Bulldogs lost their last visit here 51-41 (+19) in ’13. A&M is 4-8 in last dozen games as a home favorite; they beat Arkansas 28-21 in OT on neutral field LW. State split first two SEC games, losing 21-19 at home to LSU, winning 17-9 over QB-challenged Auburn last week- they’re 5-1 in last six games as road dog.

Home side won eight of last nine Kansas St-Oklahoma St games; K-State lost last four visits to Stillwater, all by 7 or less points- they covered the last three here. Cowboys are 4-1 in series when they score 33+, 0-6 if they score less than 33. Wildcats gave up 314 PY in OT win vs La Tech last game; they’re 19-6 in last 25 games as road underdog. Since ’06, OSU is 29-13-1 as home favorite; they won 30-27 at Texas LW, tough game.

Arizona QB Solomon was hurt LW, is ?? here; Wildcats lost eight of last ten vs Stanford- average total in last four, 73.3. Arizona lost last three in Palo Alto by 6-35-1- their last win here was in ’06. Underdogs are 5-3 vs spread in last eight series games. Cardinal played three of first four on road; they covered five of last seven as home favorite. Arizona won only road game 44-20 at Nevada; they’re 4-6 as road dogs under RichRod and got eviscerated 56-30 at home by UCLA last week.

Home side lost last three Texas-TCU games; Longhorns won 30-7 in last visit here in ’13. Texas lost last two games by total of four points, with special teams blunders in last ninute costing them both games. Horns are 2-5-1 as underdogs under Strong, 0-2 on road. TCU escaped Lubbock with wild 55-52 win last week; they allowed 89 points last two games, but covered six of last seven as home favorite. Frogs allowed 722 passing yards the last two weeks.

Alabama is underdog for first time in 73 games; they won 32-28/41-30 in last two games with Georgia- last meeting was in ’12. Underdogs are 4-1 vs spread in last five series games. Bama scored 34+ points in all four of its games this year, but lost 43-37 to Ole Miss in only SEC game- Rebels threw for 341 yards. Georgia is 6-3 in last nine games as home favorite; they won first two SEC games by 17-32 points. Underdogs are 7-5 vs spread in SEC games this year.

Over last decade, Ole Miss is 5-13 as road favorite, 3-4 under Freeze; Rebels won 43-37 at Alabama in only road game this year. Florida rallied from down 27-14 with 5:00 left to beat Tennessee last week; underdogs covered Gators’ last four games with Ole Miss, but last meeting was in ’08. Rebels won 31-30/20-17 im last two visits here. Florida is 2-3 as a home underdog since Meyer left; they were never a HU in Meyer era.

Total of 90.5 in Texas Tech-Baylor is highest-ever listed total; average total in last five series games, 95.8. Baylor won last four games vs Tech, with +11 turnover ratio, scoring 58.3 ppg– favorites are 12-4 vs spread in series. Tech had its heart ripped out LW when TCU scored on tipped pass in last minute to win 55-52; Raiders are 5-9 as road underdogs last 5+ years- they allowed 227+ rushing yards in all four games this season.

Oregon was smoked 62-20 LW at home by Utah. Ducks are 13-3 as road favorites since ’11; they lost only road game this year, 31-28 at Michigan State. Oregon won four Pac-12 games with Colorado by average score of 54-11 (4-0 vs spread); Ducks won 45-2/57-16 last two visits here- they gained total of 1,969 TY last three series games, but their defense has issues– I-AA Eastern Washington gained 549 yards on them. Colorado covered five of last six games as home underdog.

Arkansas coach Bielema has lost 13 games in row decided by 7 or less points, dating back to his Wisconsin days; Razorbacks lost three games in row, by 4-11-7 points, losing in OT to Texas Tech last week. Hogs lost last four visits to Knoxville (2-2 vs spread); these teams haven’t met since 2011. Tennessee blew late leads in losses to Oklahoma/Florida two of last three weeks; seems like their coaches are poor game managers. Dobbs hasn’t progressed very much as a passer.

Notre Dame is 2-7 vs spread in last nine road games; they won first two games vs ACC teams, 34-27 at Virginia, 30-22 vs Georgia Tech- they’re playing backup QB who is playing well (68%, 8.5 ypa) so far. Clemson hasn’t played in 16 days; they won 20-17 at Louisville in only real test so far; they’re 16-11 vs spread in last 27 home games. ACC favorites are 11-8 vs spread in non-conference games this season, 5-5 at home.

Rest of card………

— Georgia Tech lost its last two games, completing 14-46 passes; they’ve won 14 of last 16 games with North Carolina, including last eight here.

— Penn State won last three games by 13-15-16 points; they resume Big 14 play next week vs Indiana. Army ran for 556 yards LW in first win, after they lost first three games by total of ten points.

— Underdogs covered seven of last nine Bowling Green-Buffalo games; Falcons won last four meetings, three by 14+ points. Bowling Green is 5-0 vs spread in its last five visits here.

— Favorites covered Toldeo’s last four visits to Ball State; Rockets won two of last three in Muncie. Toledo ran ball for 240+ yards in four of last five series games. Underdogs are 3-2 vs spread in series.

— Wyoming is getting 25 points at Appalachian State? Cowboys are 0-4, with a home loss to I-AA North Dakota; they allowed 302 rushing yards in 38-28 home loss to New Mexico last week.

— Ohio won its last seven games with Akron, covering five of last six; Bobcats won last three visits here by average score of 33-10. Zips ran ball for 220 yards in impressive 35-14 win at UL-Lafayette last week.

— Favorites covered last four Miami-Kent games; Flashes won three of last five vs Miami, but lost four of last six played here. Three of last four series totals were 30 or less points.

— Iowa State won four of last five games with Kansas; Jayhawks lost last three viists to Ames- dogs covered four of last six visits here. ISU ran for 200+ yards in five of last six series games.

— Underdogs are 6-1-1 vs spread in last eight Purdue-Michigan St. tilts; Spartans won last six series games (1-4-1 vs spread). Boilermakers lost last three visits here by 14-4-14 points.

— UMass is 0-3, allowing 45 ppg; they passed for 695 yards in last two games- Notre Dame ran for 457 yards last week. FIU is playing 4th road game in five weeks; they won at UCF, losing by 14-10 at Indy/La Tech.

— Minnesota is 4-3 in last seven visits to Northwestern; dogs covered four of Gophers’ last five visits here. Minnesota won its last three games all by three points, after losing 23-17 to TCU.

— Underdogs covered six of last eight Pitt-Virginia Tech games; Panthers lost three of last four visits here, losing by 10-3-20 points, but they’ve won five of last six series games overall.

— Central Florida won five of last six games vs Tulane, winning 20-13 in last meeting (-19). Green Wave completed less than half its passes in last three series games. UCF is 0-4 this year, scoring 12.5 ppg.

— Western Kentucky scored 36.5 ppg in its 3-1 start, with only loss by 3 at Indiana; Hilltoppers gained 569+ TY in last three games. Rice gave up 1,274 yards in last two games, but they did win at North Texas.

— Underdogs covered six of last nine Houston-Tulsa games; Cougars are 3-1 in last four visits here (dogs 3-1 vs spread). Tulsa scored 41.7 ppg in its 2-1 start; their only loss was 52-38 at Oklahoma.

— Underdogs are 12-3-1 vs spread in last 16 Air Force-Navy games; AF lost four of last five visits here, with three of five decided by 3 points or less. Navy ran for 718 yards in its two wins over I-A teams.

— Boston College-Duke haven’t played since 2011. Duke upset Georgia Tech last week, holding Tech to 173 rushing yards. BC scored total of 17 points in last two games, completing 10-29 passes for 148 yards.

— Nebraska gained 1,145 TY in last two wins over Illinois: 39-19/45-17, covering both. Cornhuskers passed for 300+ yards in all four games, but allowed 28+ points in three of four games.

— Ohio State won last 14 games with Indiana, covering last four; OSU covered five of last six visits here, but last visit was 52-49 win. Hoosiers are 4-0, despite allowing 22+ points in all four games.

— Northern Illinois lost four of last five visits to Centeral Michigan; NIU failed to cover last three series games as single digit favorite. Huskies just lost at Ohio State by 7, BC by 3; this is their MAC opener.

— Favorites covered seven of last ten Hawai’i-Boise games; Broncos won 10 of last 11 series games, including last five here (3-2 vs spread). Boise won last four series games by average score of 43-9.

— Washington State passed for 734 yards vs Cal LY, lost 60-59; they’re 1-4 in last five visits here, but covered five of last six. Coogs are 10-5 as road dogs under Leach. Cal won last two games by total of 7 points.

— Struggling Auburn lost SEC games last two weeks, after beating I-AA team in OT week before. SEC home favorites are 4-8 vs spread outside SEC. Mountain West road underdogs are 9-6 vs spread.

— Underdogs covered last six Idaho-Arkansas State games; ASU is 5-1 in those games, winning 44-28/48-24 in last two. Average total in last nine series games, 65.3. Idaho allowed 49.3 ppg in three I-A games.

— Louisiana Tech won last seven games with UL-Lafayette, going 2-1 vs spread in last three played here. Tech is 2-2, scoring 71 points in pair of losses. ULL allowed 75 points in losing both its I-A games.

— An SEC team visiting Middle Tennessee is a big deal, even if it is only Vanderbilt, which is 0-3 vs I-A teams, scoring 14 ppg. MTSU lost 27-25 at Illinois LW (TY 368-378).

— Missouri suspended QB Mauk (22 starts), huge red flag; they scored 22 points in last two games. South Carolina will go with Nunez at QB, the better runner; they were awful in only true road game, at Georgia.

— LSU is a 45-point favorite over Eastern Michigan team that gave up 556 rushing yards to Army LW; hopefully, LSU will give Fournette a day of rest and let his backups run amok over an overmatched foe.

— Old Dominion lost 49-0 at home LW to I-A newbie Appalachian State LW; they lost 56-21 to Matshall LY, game that was 42-7 at half. Herd is allowing 220 rushing yards per game in its three I-A games.

— East Carolina threw for 410 yards in 45-24 (-40) win over SMU LY; Pirates allowed 34.7 ppg in 1-2 start vs I-A teams, giving up 76 points in two road losses. SMU lost to I-AA James Madison last week.

— Road favorites won both North Texas-Southern Miss games last two years; USM gave up 50 points in only I-A game they won- they allowed 40 ppg in three I-A games. North Texas is 0-3, allowing 42.8 ppg.

— South Alabama (-14) beat Troy 27-13 LY, its first win in three tries vs Trojans, who gave up 296 YR in LY’s game. Hard to tell a lot about two teams who spent September playing big $$$ schools and getting waxed.

— Georgia Southern got crushed at West Virginia, then ran ball for 854 yards hile scoring 43.5 ppg in wins over W. Michigan/Idaho. Eagles beat UL-Monroe 22-16 LY, in game they trailed 7-3 at half.

— Florida State won last three games vs Wake Forest by combined score of 154-6; they covered five of last six series games. Reloading Seminoles play Miami/Louisville next two games; they need to develop depth.

— Maryland (+6) won 23-16 at Michigan LY, but Terps allowed 245.3 rushing yards last three weeks, losing 45-6 at home to West Virginia last week. Wolverines outscored last three opponents 94-14.

— Colorado State/Utah State split last four games, with Rams’ two wins by total of four points (CSU 3-1 vs spread). Colorado State’s three I-A games this year have been decided by total of eight points.

— Road team won last two UTSA-UTEP games; Roadrunners won last visit here 32-13 in ’13, but got squashed 34-0 LY. UTSA allowed 43.5 ppg in 0-3 start, losing 3-31 at home to Colorado State last week.

— Underdogs are 4-1-1 vs spread in last six New Mexico-New Mexico State games, 4-2 in games played here; Lobos won last three series games by 13-49-3 points, running for 973 yards in last two games.

— Nevada won nine of last ten games with rival UNLV, which covered three of last five games. Rebels (+6.5) won 27-22 in last visit here in ’13, their only cover in last five visits to Reno.

— Fresno State won last three games with San Diego State, by 11-7-12 points; favorites covered four of last six series games. Fresno won 35-28 in last visit here, its first win in last three trips to San Diego.