2015 NFL
Week 4
Jets (2-1) vs Dolphins (1-2) (@ London)— Miami was dreadful in home opener; since ’08, Fish are 23-11-1 as underdogs of 3 or less points, but they allowed 174 rushing yards last two games, forced no turnovers despite spending lot of $$$ on DL- they gave up 8.3/9.6 ypa last two weeks. Teams split last ten meetings. Jets are +8 in turnovers in two wins this year, -3 in loss. Since 2009, Jets are 10-5 as road favorites; they’re 2-5 in last seven games with spread of 3 or less, 8-4 in last 12 AFC East road games. Jets outscored foes 37-7 in second half this year. Divisional underdogs are 10-4 vs spread so far this season. Starting off 1-2 when favored in all three games has natives restless in south Florida.
Jaguars (1-2) @ Colts (1-2)— Indy pulled out 35-33 win in Nashville to avoid 0-3 start, giving up 27 straight points after taking 14-0 lead; they’ve won last five games vs Jaguars, with all five wins by 17+ points. Jaguars lost last two visits here, 30-0/23-3; over last 4+ years, Jax is 13-30-1 as single digit dog, they are 6-3 in last nine games as AFC South road underdog. Colts have 10 turnovers (-7) in first three games; they’re 8-3-1 last 12 games as home favorite. Indy ran ball for 319 yards in two wins over Jags LY, but are averaging just 96.7 ypg on ground so far this year. Last five years, Colts are 10-4-1 in divisional home games. Over last 9+ years, under is 34-22-1 in Indianapolis home games.
Texans (1-2) @ Falcons (3-0)— Atlanta trailed all three wins in 4th quarter, were down by double digits twice; they’re 3-0 but not like they’re the ’72 Dolphins. Julio Jones has 34 catches, most of any player ever thru three games- they targeted him 20 times in Dallas Sunday (12 catches). Houston had 30 first downs last week, scored only 19 points; they haven’t started a drive in enemy territory yet; opponents started 7 of 39 drives in Texan territory. Since ’10, Texans are 8-12-3 as road dogs. Last three years, Atlanta is 7-10 as home favorite. NFC South teams are 5-3 in non-divisional games (3-1 when favored), AFC South teams are 3-6. Under is 15-10 in Houston’s last 25 road games.
Panthers (3-0) @ Buccaneers (1-2)— Trap game for 3-0 Carolina, which won last four vs Bucs, including both games LY, when backup QB Anderson played both games. Panthers won three of last four visits here, winning by 19-18-6 points. Carolina is 3-6 as road fave last 3+ years, but over last 10+ years, they’re 5-2 as divisional road favorite. Tampa Bay is breaking in rookie QB; they’re 9 for 40 on third down, have only three TDs on eight red zone drives. Bucs’ kicker missed PAT, three FGs in Houston; only one he made was 58 yards. Last 8+ years, Tampa is 7-18-1 as home underdogs. Under is 14-10-1 in Tampa Bay home games last 3+ years. 14-19-1 in Carolina road games the last 4+ seasons.
Giants (1-2) @ Bills (2-1)— First game in NY for Giants since 2007; visitor won four of last five series games- Big Blue won 19-17/38-21 in last two visits here. Giants had three extra days of prep for this after Thursday win over Redskins last week, Since ’11, Giants are 14-10 as road underdogs; they had double-digit 4th quarter leads in all three games, but lost two of them- they’ve won field position by 11-9-20 yards. Buffalo scored 100 points in its first three games; running ball for 169.3 ypg; they’re +5 in turnovers, outscored foes 20-0 in last 2:00 of each half. Bills are 8-12 as home favorites since 2011; since ’07, dogs are 25-14-1 vs spread in Buffalo’s non-division games. Thru three weeks, AFC East teams are 5-2-1 vs spread in non-divisional games.
Raiders (2-1) @ Bears (0-3)— Chicago traded two defensive players for draft picks earlier in week; have they waved white flag already? Bears punted all 10 times they had ball last week in 26-0 loss at Seattle. Clausen is 1-11 as NFL starter. Oakland is road favorite for second time in last 8+ years; they lost 35-13 (-2) at Miami in Week 2 of ’12 season. Bears won six of eight series games; Raiders are here for first time since ’03. Raiders’ win last week ended 11-game road losing skid; they gained 917 yards, scored 64 points in winning last two games- all three of their games went over. Last 3+ years, Chicago is 1-7 as home underdog. AFC West teams are 6-4 vs spread outside division; NFC North teams are 3-5.
Eagles (1-2) @ Redskins (1-2)— Washington averaged 8.9/8.2 ypa in splitting pair of FG decisions with Eagles LY; Philly won six of last nine series games, with average total in last five, 53.8. Philly won four of last six visits here. Redskins had extra prep time after Thursday loss last week; Skins ran ball for 343 yards in first two games, but only 88 last week- they lost starting G Lauvao to injury, so that hurts. Philly is 12-5 under Kelly in games with spread of 3 or less; they’re 7-12 as road favorites since 2010. Philly didn’t score in second half last week; they passed for only 108 yards. Last 2+ years, Redskins are 4-7 as home underdogs, 5-10 in games with spread of 3 or less points. Under is 15-10 in Washington’s last 25 home games.
Chiefs (1-2) @ Bengals (3-0)— Cincy scored 85 points in fast start; last two wins were by total of nine points- they averaged 7.9+ ypa in all three games. Bengals won last three vs Kansas City by 10-7-22 points. Chiefs lost last four visits here; their last win here was in 1984. KC is travelling on short week; they’re 7-4-1 as road dogs under Reid, but are 1-3 vs spread in game after last four MNF games. AFC North non-divisional favorites are 4-2 vs spread; AFC West underdogs are 3-4. Bengals are 9-4-1 in last 14 games as home favorite; they’ve had four TD drives of less than 50 yards. Chiefs finally got TD catch from WR; they’re just 5-30 on third down, have been outscored 34-0 in last 2:00 of each half.
Browns (1-2) @ Chargers (1-2)— San Diego lost field position by 9-16 yards in losing its last two games; opponents started 6 of 29 drives in SD territory- they’ve got injury issues on OL. Bolts won five of last seven games with Browns, losing last meeting 7-6 in 2012. Best QB in Cleveland might be #3 QB Davis, who played for Rams and got contract from Browns this week. Cleveland fired OL coach after domestic violence issue; they’ve got distractions; they’re 5-2-1 as road underdogs under Pettine. Since ’11, Chargers are 9-11 as home favorite; they were down 21-3 in their only win this year. AFC West non-divisional favorites are 3-0 so far this season; AFC North underdogs are 0-2-1 vs spread.
Packers (3-0) @ 49ers (1-2)— Long trip, short week for Green Bay team averaging 32 ppg in first three wins, scoring 11 TDs on 29 drives. Packers covered six of last eight as road favorites, but allowed 33 ppg in losing last four games vs Niners (two playoff games), but those 49ers aren’t these 49ers. SF was outscored 90-25 in losing last two games, allowing 13.7/9.3 ypa to Steelers/Cardinals; Kaepernick threw two pick-6’s in first 6:00 at Arizona Sunday. 49ers are 3-0-1 as home dogs since ’09; they won opener vs Minnesota as home dog, running for 230 yards. Green Bay has nine TDs, four FGs in 13 red zone drives, but they’re 0-5 vs spread in last five games that followed a Monday night game. Average total in last seven series games, 55.1.
Vikings (2-1) @ Broncos (3-0)— Denver is winning with defense, allowing four TDs on 32 drives this season, only three TDs on eight red zone drives- they’re 17-7 as home favorite in Manning era, 11-4 in non-divisional games. Minnesota ran ball for 362 yards last couple weeks at home, after they laid egg in opener in Santa Clara, losing 20-3- they’re just 11-32 on 3rd down, sign of a young QB. Denver has 10 takeaways (+6) in three games;its foes are just 6-32 on third down. Vikings are 7-6 in series (3-3 here), with five of their last six meetings decided by 4 or less points. Seven of last nine Viking road games stayed under total. AFC West non-divisional favorites are 3-0 against spread; NFC North dogs are 0-4.
Rams (1-2) @ Cardinals (3-0)— No love lost here; Rams KO’d Arizona starting QBs both meetings LY, Cardinals are 13-4 in last 17 meetings, winning last three by 20-6-17 points- they scored pair of defensive TDs late to break open close game in Rams’ visit here LY. St Loius has one TD on 21 drives in last two games, with lone TD on one-play drive woth long pass for TD- they’ve been in red zone once in last two games. Arizona is scoring 42 ppg; they’ve had three defensive TDs and KR TD in last two games; they’re 9-2-1 as a home favorite under Arians. Rams were 5-9 as road dogs last two years, after going 7-1 in Fisher’s first year. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 3-8 vs spread this season.
Cowboys (2-1) @ Saints (0-3)— Brees (shoulder) is expected back here, but McCown was not problem in loss at Carolina last week. Saint defense gave up 9.8 ypa to Newton and hasn’t held any of three foes under 8.1 ypa this season. Dallas wilted in second half last week, giving up last 25 points of game to 3-0 Falcons. Cowboys lost eight of last ten vs New Orleans, with average total in last four meetings 60.8, but that was with Romo and a healthy Brees. Cowboys ran ball for 190 yards in 38-17 hone win over Saints LY; they’ve lost four of last five visits here. NO covered twice in last nine games as home favorite; they’ve given up 28 ppg (9 TDs on 31 drives) in first three games. Dallas is 22-8 in last 30 games as a road underdog.
“Monday” – Lions (0-3) @ Seahawks (1-2)— Detroit blew 21-3 lead in opener at San Diego, its been all downhill since; they’ve run ball 51 times in three games for 135 yards while dropping back to pass 134 times, a terrible ratio and Stafford is banged-up. Seattle blanked Chicago in Chancellor’s first game after holdout, but opposing QB was Clausen, which helped a lot. Seahawks are 22-8 in last 30 games as home favorite; under is 10-7 in last 17 home games. Lions are 4-11 in last 15 games as a road underdog; under is 13-5 in last 18 road games. Home side won eight of last 11 series games; Lions are 1-5 in Seattle, with only win way back in 1996. NFC West non-divisional favorites are 3-1; NFC North underdogs are 0-4.