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Reply To: Week 4 – 'Football Super Sunday! Service Plays 10/4/15

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Brady Kannon | NFL Side

dime bet – 270 SFX 9.5 (-115) vs 269 GBP
Analysis: The +9’s are now long gone as I write this on Saturday but I do still see some +8’s or better. At +7 or worse, I would be a little leery as it becomes a decent sized miss on the best number. However, the fact remains that 90% of the tickets are still being written on Green Bay, yet we are seeing the line move steadily in the other direction, which as I have said before, is a situation I like for our side.

The 49’ers have been wholeheartedly embarrassed in two straight weeks now but even more so, most recently in Arizona. In their defense, we have seen them run the ball very well with Carlos Hyde in Game One. Game Two was an extremely tough spot, after the big opening win, on a short week, going back east, against a team that had 10-days rest. Finally, back to last week in Arizona.. and I will say, let’s not make quite as much of that game as the final score would indicate – because this game was not even really a game. With Kaepernick’s two immediate, nearly identical, pick sixes to start the contest, it was really over before any sort of normal form had a chance to develop.

I expect San Francisco to get up off the mat this week and put together a good performance as they are back in the friendly confines of home and embarrassment is nothing that sits easily with a professional athlete. The Packers and Aaron Rodgers are a much different team on the road than they are at home.. and this too for Green Bay, similar to San Francisco in Week Two, is a short week in which they are coming off of a big win, and are now on the road… and prior to the big win on Monday Night, they also had a huge revenge fueled win over Seattle. My thought is that this is the perfect spot for a wounded home dog to rise up against a high profile foe that would appear to be ripe for a letdown.

Let’s also keep in mind that The Packers are 0-and-5 ATS after playing under the Monday Night lights and since 1995, home underdogs that lost by 40 or more points in their last game, are 10-2-and-1 ATS, with 6-outright wins.

Finally, with Reggie Bush expected to be back for The 49’ers, they will have Hyde, Kaepernick, and Bush in the backfield.. in Game One, we saw Matt Forte torch this Green Bay defense, which is weak against the run, for 141-yards.. again, when The Packers were on the road – as a favorite.

I am not sure San Francisco will win this game straight up but a contest that opened this Summer as Pick ‘Em, does not now warrant a 8-9 point adjustment in my opinion.