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StraightUpWinners Sharp – Xavier Singleton
NFL Game of the Season
Detroit Lions vs Seattle Seahawks
15-Units Lions +10
10-Units Lions +6.5 1st half
Prop – 8-Units Ameer Abdullah Over receiving/Rushing 68.5 yards -115
3-Units Lions ML +399
You’re not going to like what I have to say to start this email, but the way this game goes, youll understand and love this email. The Denver Broncos defense is better than Seattle Seahawks. Now don’t get angry, but there’s a reason I say this. Instead of arguing this, Allow me to say why I said it. The biggest difference is the Broncos have 2 of the better pass rushers in the NFL in DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller. Against Detroit last week they lined up one on each side and went after Manning. It makes it really tough for the offense to help these Detroit Tackles because it’s coming from each side. Seattle only has one pure pass rusher and that’s Cliff Avril- who is no Ware or Miller. And Don’t Say Micheal Bennett who has recorded 1 QB hurry in 3 games. Because there’s only one real threat, the offense can help out to whatever side he is on. You can do this with a double team, or the running back/TE chipping over there. Or even run directly at the pass rusher.
That’s why this game will look different than Detroit did against Seattle. Joe Lombardi, Detroits OC, knows this and has publically said that Abdullah will have a much bigger role.
But there’s another major issue I want to talk about, Seattle’s defense is good, but have they proven they are elite? They allowed 31 points to the Rams — Who’s has averaged 13.33 points a game outside of SEA/STL match up. They played GB, who does score on everyone, allowed 27 points there too. And yes, they did shut out Jimmy Claussen lead Bears, but what does that prove? They can be dominate over terrible teams? The number one thing that the Public does wrong in the NFL is assume that last year carries over. Forget everything you know about NFL teams for a new season, and re-learn with what you see. Right now I see some problems with the Seahawks defense. Mainly their pass defense. They are allowing 7.2 yards per pass attempt, that’s the 12 HIGHEST in the NFL. They averaged 5.8 yards per pass attempt a year ago, 2nd in the league. They’ve been getting beat through the air. So let’s talk about tonight’s match up.
You can argue that Richard Sherman is the best in the league, and you although I’d throw other names out there, I do respect his ability. He’s aided by his Safety’s that allow his to taken more chances and play closer than other CB’s. But here’s my real issue, particularly for tonight. Sherman only plays the left side of the field. So, if you don’t want Calvin covered by him, then put Calvin on the right. Calvin catches slightly more balls on the right side of the field in his career anyways. I highly regard Joe Lombardi, the Ex- Saint QB Coach who Brees credits for his career, should be able to exploit this.
Seahawks pass defense is more passed on reputation than what’s it’s been able to produce this year. Without a doubt, the Lions are a spread them out, spacing and passing offense. This year Stafford has a career high in completions. Everyone wants to talk about Stafford getting so much pressure, but the fact of the matter is he’s only sacked on 4.77% of his drop backs. That’s 11th fewest in the NFL. Russel Wilson on the other hand, over 10% 3rd most in the NFL.
I do think Amer Abdullah will play a huge role in the offense tonight. I predict hell have a career high in carries and in yards! Seattle’s rush defense currently ranks 13 in the NFL. And although DET rush offense ranks dead last, they’ve only ran the ball 17 times a game! It equates to about 24% of their play calls. This is a good match up for them to be more balanced, and not because of Seattle’s rushing defense, but because Seattle’s just not a team that runs up the score. You don’t feel like you have to keep up by scoring every drive. It will be a major difference in the play calling tonight.
Finally, I want to address the importance of Marshawn Lynch to this Seattle team. It should be obvious. Lynch probably doesn’t get the credit he deserves as an individual talent. Here’s a stat I think that describe what he does well. Yards after contact. Lynch lead the NFL in 2014 in number of rushes of 10+ yards after initial contact. He also lead the NFL in number of 3+ yards rushes after contact, by a huge number. Lynch had 133 rushes where he was hit and still went for another 3+ yards. The 2nd most, 101 rushes by Eddie Lacey. 33% more than the 2nd best in the NFL. That’s mindblowing. This offense completely relies on Lynch’s individual ability. Rawls needs to have yards after contact because these numbers prove it’s not the offensive line that creating this rushing offense. It is Lynch.
Last time these two met, was 2012. Barely worth talking about, but some of the notable things. Stafford threw for 352 yards and 3 touchdowns. He’s not intimidated by the “Legion of Boom”. For the Seahawks, Lynch rushed for over a 100 yards — out tonight. And Golden Tate lead the WRs for Seattle, now in Detroit.
Now that I’ve presented you a whole lot of information let’s talk about how tonights game will go. Seattle’s lower scoring affairs will be to Detroits advantage as they will be more balanced. If Abdullah has any success, and I think he will given Seattle allows 103 rushing yards per game, this will give Stafford better opportunities. Even still, in obvious passing situations, we wont have a repeat of Broncos vs Lions because Seattle just doesn’t have that type of pass rush, without using a blitz. To generate that type of pressure, Seattle does have to Blitz and with Stafford has a career high in completing passes on these short routes vs the Blitz. Also, the Lions have the weapons outside to use Johnson and Tate that will maximize their advantage out there. Yes, Seattle has Sherman but we always know he will line up on the left side of the field. I fully expect the Lions to have the chance to win this game outright. They will lead at some point. but the fact we are getting 9.5 points makes it a 15-Unit Lock. They will never trail by more than 10 points. Seattle relies too much on Lynch offensively, and Lions have too many weapons in a must win situation.