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Best betting value takes timing for these NFL Week 5 odds
By AAA SPORTS
Each week during the pro football season, Art Aronson of AAA Sports looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later and and which total to watch as the week plays out.
Spread to bet on now
Chicago Bears at Kansas City Chiefs (-10)
This line says more about the Bears than it does about the Chiefs. Kansas City was buried at Cincinnati last week and was a double-digit loser at Green Bay the week before, but is now a 10-point favorite back home against a Bears team that is shedding players and heading into rebuild mode before even Columbus Day.
Money is solidly on the Bears in this one but the line hasn’t budged yet. Kansas City is at the bottom of the AFC West and needs this one badly. If you like the Chiefs in this one at Arrowhead, best lay the money now before the betting swings toward a home team in a must-win situation.
Spread to wait on
New England Patriots at Dallas Cowboys (+9)
Action on the Patriots has already bumped this line up a point and a half, and it yet may go to the magic 10 as attention is focused on these two high-profile teams. The Patriots crushed Indianapolis last year coming off their bye week, and were one bad call from winning at Carolina after their 2013 bye.
Add in the fact that New England is healthy and the Cowboys are missing key players on both offense and defense, and there is the possibility of plenty of volatility. Heavy money on Sunday morning/early afternoon could also affect this number.
Total to watch
Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (43.5)
Has this number been set low enough to entice Over bettors? Before you jump, bear in mind that Denver has been held to 24 points or fewer in three of its four games, and the Broncos are being carried by the league’s best defense. The Peyton Manning-is-finished crowd got more ammunition last week when he completed just 17 of 27 passes and had more picks (2) than TDs (1).
Oakland has a below-average running game that will go up against a Top-8 defense. The Raiders should get a little boost playing at home, but yards will still be at a premium for both teams.