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Reply To: NCAAF Week 6 – Previews, Articles, Info. Saturday 10/10/15

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Why wiseguys are betting these college football odds at the right time
By Steve Merril

Each week during the college football season, Steve Merril looks at the NCAAF odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

Minnesota Golden Gophers (-3) at Purdue Boilermakers

Minnesota and Purdue played two totally different games last week. While the Golden Gophers got shutout 27-0 at Northwestern, the Boilermakers lost a close 24-21 game at home to Michigan State. Off such performances, we can expect Minnesota to have more motivation while Purdue figures to be flat.

The oddsmakers opened Minnesota as a 1.5-point favorite in this game, and early money has pushed that line up to -3. Based on my power ratings, the line is still a tad short and it wouldn’t be a surprise if it goes up throughout the week. Lay the three points with Minnesota now.

Spread to wait on

Washington State Cougars (+17) at Oregon Ducks

Oregon won 41-24 in Colorado last Saturday night, and off that win, the public may think the Ducks are back to themselves after getting embarrassed by Utah 62-20 at home in their previous game. But Oregon still has serious issues, and it can’t be trusted inside this pointspread range.

Washington State comes in with a 2-2 SU record with its two losses coming by a combined 13 points. The Cougars are a scrappy team and since they possess a strong passing offense, they always have backdoor potential if needed. Wait this game out, and grab at least an extra half point on Washington State.

Total to watch

Navy Midshipmen at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (54.5)

Notre Dame just faced a triple-option offense a few weeks ago when the Irish beat Georgia Tech 30-22. Notre Dame allowed the Yellow Jackets to score just six points in the first 59 minutes of the game before Georgia Tech miraculously scored two touchdowns in the final minute. That experience will have Notre Dame more prepared to stop Navy’s triple-option offense in this game.

The total on this game opened at 55 at the majority of sports books, but it has been bet down slightly to 54.5. There’s no reason to expect a high-scoring game, especially since Navy has held their four opponents to an average of just 15.0 points per game this season. This total will likely drop even lower as the week goes on, so take the Under now.