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Reply To: NCAAF Week 6 – Previews, Articles, Info. Thursday 10/8/15

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JOE GAVAZZI

Pointspread Prognosis

SMU at Houston (-25-) 8:00 ET ESPN2

Unusual AFP situation here sees the line the same as it would have been opening week, despite the 1-4 SU ATS SMU record in which they are (-40) AFP, and the 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS Houston record in which they are (+42) AFP. That is how much more impressed the linemaker is with SMU and first year HC Morris (former OC Clemson), as opposed to Houston and their first year HC Herman (former OC Ohio St.). Ponies have a greatly improved offense at 31/429. But, the defense is worst in the world at 45/593, a clear member of the PLAY AGAINST 200 DEFENSE CLUB, allowing 285 or more both running and passing. That defense is death against a Houston offense who will relish the National TV exposure. Cougars are averaging 46 PPG, running AND passing for at least 297 YPG for 604 total offensive yards per game. Cougar defense at 23 PPG is tough enough to close the back door, much as they did against Tulsa last week.

Washington at USC (-17) 9:00 ET

Each of these teams is 3-1 ATS, covering the number by a (+31) AFP. That means the pointspread is right in line with the opening number. Much of the hype in this game surrounds USC HC Sarkisian, the former coach of Washington. Mainstream thinking is that the Washington players will be hungry to avenge his defection, when he bailed on them shortly before their 2013 Bowl Game against BYU. The other side of the coin, of course, is that Sarkisian, and much of his staff, are the guys who recruited the current Washington players. These current USC assistants include the ex-recruiting coordinator at Washington. Also, the addition by Sarkisian of the Oklahoma St. OL coach is key. For, it is that assistant who spent a month preparing to beat Washington in their Bowl Game last season. Looks like the intangibles are all on the side of the host Trojans. Then, there is outstanding Trojan QB Kessler with a 15/1 ratio, who has led the USC offense to 47/532/8.1. No chance for the Huskies, right? Not unless you consider that current Washington HC Petersen is a righteous 8-1 ATS as dog of more than a touch and has 2 weeks to prepare for this contest. Well aware that Huskies bring a frosh QB in Browning to his first major road start, but they also bring a Dandy Defense, allowing just 16 PPG and 321 YPG on 4.3 YP play. Plenty of room for the Huskies in their preferred dog role!

100-45-3 ATS (69%) ATS Joe’s FREE Plays this Season