13-2 ATS NFL Division Statement Game
Tom rates his online plays 1* to 5* with a 5* being the strongest.
1* #302 HOUSTON (+) over Indianapolis at 8:25 PM EST
At 1-3 SU, this is a critical game for Houston. The Texans can’t afford to fall to 1-4 SU and definitely don’t want to lose to the Colts again. Indianapolis owns an impressive 22-4 SU record in this series (13-11-2 ATS) and has quietly won five straight.
Off last week’s embarrassing 48-21 beatdown in Atlanta, Houston will be hungry too. The Texas have played well at home in a revenge mode and off a straight up loss posting a profitable 15-6-1 ATS record. In this role lined up against an opponent that played in the comforts of home less, Houston improves to a sound 14-3-1 ATS. Based on their current record, there is also a reliable 45-23-4 ATS early season pro system that backs the Texans as well. (Because this technical situation applies to a few other teams this weekend, the parameters that make this system pop will remain for my eyes only.)
The Horseshoes will most likely welcome back quarterback Andrew Luck to the lineup on Thursday night. Luck is nursing an injured shoulder but, since this is a division game, there’s a pretty good chance he’ll be the starter. It is noted that the Colts are an impressive 15-0 SU and 11-2-2 ATS in their last 15 AFC South battles. However, on foreign soil priced as an underdog or a favorite of -2 or less and matched up against a foe that checks in off an ATS loss, Indy owns a soft 34-50-1 ATS record. Also, since 1985, game five teams that own a 2-2 SU record are a dismal 16-30 ATS provided they enter off back-to-back straight up wins and their opponent carries a won/loss percentage less than .500. If this is a division game, this situation crashes to a woeful 2-13 ATS
The Colts have owned the division lately. But, with Pro Bowl running back Arian Foster back, the Texans have enough weapons on offense to compete with the banged up Horseshoes on Thursday night. Take Houston. Thank you and best of luck, Tom Stryker.