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Reply To: Week 5 – Thursday Service Plays 10/8/15

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COLTS @ TEXANS Thursday Night
NFL 3*** OVER / UNDER Winner
Plays rated 2 thru 5 stars
8:25pm ET – 5:25pm PT / #302

Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans
3*** Play on: UNDER the TOTAL

The pointspread and the OU line in this game were posted pretty late in the week. It was not until late on Tuesday night that the oddsmakers made Indy a short road favorite, and posted an OU line of 45 points. The reason for that is the questionable status of Colt QB Andre Luck. It looks like he WILL play on Thursday, but he will not be 100% healthy. He certainly has not looked good in the month of September. BOTH of these quarterbacks are ranked #22 or worse in the NFL QBR ratings for the season.

Ryan Mallet of Houston is ranked #22. What is surprising is that Andrew Luck is ranked #31. That’s right, he’s currently the second WORST quarterback in the league in QBR ranking (right behind Alex Smith of the Chiefs). With both QB’s struggling, there has STILL been NO Over / Under line adjustment. The average OU line in this Houston / Indy series has been 45.9 over the last five years. And yet, Thursday’s line is still at 45 points. Speaking of SERIES history, these two teams have gone 2-7 O/U in the last nine meetings… with an average of 42.2 combined points per game. With both offenses struggling, we’ll tale a bite with the UNDER on Thursday.
AFC South Division games have been ‘trending UNDER’ as of late anyway. We went UNDER in last week’s Colts / Jags game… and we’ll do it again.

2-15 O/U since 2011: All AFC SOUTH division games with an OU Line of > 43 points (Colts @ Texans) in GAME FIVE or greater.
The Colts are one of only TWO NFL teams that have yet to cash an ATS win this season (Indy: 0-4 ATS and Baltimore 0-3-1 ATS)…
GAME FIVE road teams who are 0-4 ATS on the season (Colts) have gone 1-7 O/U since 2009 when the OU line is 47 < points. In last week’s home win, the Colts were a favorite of -4 points. And they scored only 16 points against the Jaguars… 0-7 O/U last three years: All NFL teams off a SU home win as a favorite of < 10 points (Colts) in which they scored only 16 or LESS points. This will be Indianapolis’ third STRAIGHT division game in a row… 2-12 O/U since 2001: All favorites of 9 < pts… off a SU win… in their third STRAIGHT division game (Colts)… when the OU Line is 39 > points.

Houston got smacked around pretty good last week against the 4-0 Atlanta Falcons. They ended up losing by 27 points…

1-8-1 O/U last four years: All DIVISION teams off a SU non-division road loss of 27 or more points (Houston)… when the OU line is 51 < points. Final score of that road loss last week was Atlanta 48 - Houston 21. We were on the OBER in that game, and it cashed one minute into the fourth quarter. Based on this last database query, we’re switching gears this week and going UNDER… 0-5 O/U last two seasons: All NFL teams who scored 21 > pts last week and ALLOWED 45 > points (Texans)… when the OU line is < 51 points.