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CFL Betting Notes – Week 16
By David Schwab
Week 16 of the CFL regular season features a unique five-game schedule starting this Tuesday night with the Ottawa RedBlacks on the road against Toronto. Looking back at last week’s results, the RedBlacks got things started with a 39-17 victory against Montreal last Thursday as three-point home favorites.
Calgary tightened its grip on another West Division title with a key 23-20 win over Hamilton on Friday to cover as a two-point road favorite. Saturday’s CFL action saw Edmonton sneak past Winnipeg 24-23 as a 6 ½-point road favorite while British Columbia closed things out with a 46-20 romp over Saskatchewan as a three-point favorite at home.
Friday, Oct. 9
Saskatchewan Roughriders (2-12 SU, 4-10 ATS) vs. Hamilton Tiger-Cats (8-5 SU, 9-4 ATS)
Point-spread: Hamilton -7
The Roughriders continue to ride out the string in lost season. They come into this game with a 1-5 record ATS on the road this season and they are 3-5 ATS in the eight games they closed as underdogs. Saskatchewan is averaging a respectable 24.4 points a game on offense, but its defense is ranked dead-last in the CFL in points allowed (30.9).
Hamilton needs to hold on in the absence of quarterback Zach Collaros, who was lost for the season with a knee injury. In his place against Calgary last week, Jeff Mathews completed 15 of his 23 attempts for 155 yards and he could not get his team into the end zone through the air. The Tiger-Cats also struggled to move the ball on the ground with just 31 rushing yards on the day.
Saskatchewan is 6-3 ATS in its last nine road games against the Tiger-Cats and the total has stayed UNDER in four of the last six meetings in Hamilton. The Roughriders lost the first meeting this season 31-21 on July 26 as two-point home favorites.
Saturday, Oct. 10
Edmonton Eskimos (10-4 SU, 8-6 ATS) vs. Calgary Stampeders (11-3 SU, 4-10 ATS)
Point-spread: Calgary -4 ½
The Eskimos needed a 53-yard field goal with time running out in the fourth quarter to get past Winnipeg last week to clinch a spot in this season’s CFL Playoffs. Quarterback Mike Reilly found his form in that game-winning drive and he ended the day with 298 yards passing and one touchdown throw, but he was also picked-off twice. He did add 36 yards and a score on seven rushing attempts.
Calgary has also clinched a playoff spot with last week’s win and while it has now won eight if its last nine games SU, its record ATS during this same stretch is just 4-5. Credit running back Jon Cornish with much of the Stampeders’ offensive production in the big win against Hamilton. He ran the ball 14 times for 90 yards and he caught seven passes for another 64 yards.
The season series is split 1-1 both SU and ATS with each team winning at home and the total stayed UNDER in both contests. The Stampeders are 12-1 SU over the last 13 games in this series and they have a 7-1 record ATS in the last eight meetings. The total has gone OVER in four of the six games played in Calgary.
Winnipeg Blue Bombers (4-10 SU, 6-7-1 ATS) vs. British Columbia Lions (5-8 SU, 7-6 ATS)
Point-spread: BC -7 ½
Total: 50 ½
Give the Blue Bombers credit for putting up a valiant fight against Edmonton last week, but that SU loss was their seventh in their last eight games. They have been able to cover ATS in three of their last four outings with the total going OVER in their last three games. Matt Nichols put the ball up 39 times in last week’s game and while he did pass for 320 yards and a score, he only completed 56.4 percent of his throws.
BC is hanging tough for the third playoff position in the West, but even with last week’s win the Lions are just 2-5 SU in their last seven games. They have covered in their last three matchups with the total going OVER each time. Jonathon Jennings turned in a solid performance as BC’s starting quarterback against the Roughriders with 364 yards passing and four touchdown throws. Wide receiver Emmanuel Arceneaux also came up big with four catches for 137 yards and two of the four scores.
The Lions have won seven of the last nine meetings SU and the total has stayed UNDER in 17 of the last 22 games between these two division rivals. Winnipeg won the first meeting this season 23-13 as a three-point home underdog.
Monday, Oct. 12
Toronto Argonauts (7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS) vs. Montreal Alouettes (5-8 SU, 6-6-1 ATS)
Toronto will be back in action on Monday to close things out in Week 16. The Argonauts have been able to average a respectable 26 points through their first 12 games of the season, but they have their issues keeping opposing teams out of the end zone behind a defense that is allowing an average of 29 points a game.
The Alouettes are two and a half games in back of Toronto for the third playoff spot in the East, but they are still in good position to make it into the CFL postseason as a crossover team. Montreal has not been nearly as productive on offense with 21.7 points a game, but its defense remains one of the stingiest units in the league with the same scoring average when it comes to points allowed.
Montreal has the clear edge in this division rivalry for the past several years with a SU 18-7 record in the last 25 meetings and a 17-8 record ATS. The total has stayed UNDER in 11 of the last 12 meetings.