NFL Week 5
Jaguars (1-3) @ Buccaneers (1-3) — Third straight road game for Jax, historically 30% or so play in NFL; Jags outgained Luck-less Colts by 110 yards, but couldn’t make FG at end lost in OT- they’re 8-9-1 as road dogs under Bradley, 3-7-1 in non-division games, 6-10 in games with spread of 3 or less points. Winston threw pick-6 in first quarter of both games at home; Bucs allowed 79 points in losing both home games- they failed to cover four in a row as home favorites. NFC South non-divisional favorites are 6-1 vs spread. AFC South underdogs are 2-4. Jags won last four series games, three by 7 or less points; home side won four of last five in series. Teams split a pair of one-point decisions in last two here.
Bills (2-2) @ Titans (1-2) — Buffalo’s last playoff game was Music City Miracle loss here in ’99. Tennessee won last five series games, four by six or less points; Bills lost last four visits to Nashville, with last win in ’94. Titans lost four of last five post-bye games; they are 2-12 SU off a loss and since ’12, they’re 4-10-1 as home underdogs- all three of their games went over. Buffalo won its only road game 41-14 at Miami; they allowed 14 points in both wins, 40-24 in losses, both to QBs with multiple Super Bowl wins. Since ’07, Bills are 6-3 as road favorites. AFC South teams are 3-7 vs spread out of conference. Titans are in odd stretch in that Tennessee doesn’t play a road game in October (4 home and the bye).
Browns (1-3) @ Ravens (1-3) — Baltimore got first win LW in Pittsburgh, had three extra days to prep for this, vs Cleveland team they’ve beaten 13 of last 14 times. Browns lost last seven visits here, with last five all by 10 or less points. Over last 8+ years, Ravens are 7-14-1 as home favorite in divisional games; Browns are 6-2-1 in last nine games as a dog in divisional tilts- they’re 7-4-1 as divisional road dog since ’11. Cleveland lost both games on road, allowing 30-31 points; they lost on last play in San Diego last week after jumping offside on missed FG, giving Chargers second chance to win. All four Browns games went over total. All four Baltimore games this season were decided by six or less points.
Redskins (2-2) @ Falcons (4-0) — Unbeaten Atlanta has 10 TDs on 21 drives in last two games; they haven’t turned ball over since Week 1. Falcon OC Shanahan worked for his dad with Redskins as recently as two years ago, when Washington lost here 27-26. Atlanta is 4-6 as home favorite last 2+ years, 2-5 in non-divison games. Falcons won last four series games, scoring 26.5 ppg. Skins are 4-11 as road dogs the last 2+ years, 2-5 in non-division games; they are 29-62 on 3rd down this year; Cousins has moved chains well. Under is 3-1 in Washington games this year; over is 14-10-1 in its road games last 3+ years. Redskins were outscored in second half in all four games. NFC West non-divisional home favorites are 6-1 vs spread so far this season.
Bears (1-3) @ Chiefs (1-3) — KC allowed 35 ppg in losing last three games; they gave up 9.0/13.4 ypa in last two games. Chiefs are 5-3 in last eight games as a home favorite; they were 5-19-1 in that role from ’07-’13. Bears got first win LW, with Cutler returning from injury- they converted 10-17 on third down (5 of 25 in previous two games). Chicago was outscored 46-9 in second half of last three games; their last second half TD was in Week 1. Bears are 13-24-2 as road dogs since ’08; over is 18-7 in their last 25 road games. Reid was 4-0 vs Fox last two years when Fox was in Denver; Chiefs are 6-5 in series, 3-2 here; this is Bears’ first visit to Arrowhead since ’03. All four KC games this year went over total.
Saints (1-3) @ Eagles (1-3) — Iggles rallied from down 13-0 at half to lead in 4th quarter at Washington last week, but Cousins marched Skins to winning TD in last 0:30 to drop Philly to 1-3 and Bradford’s career record to 19-33-1. Eagles are 14-20-1 as home favorites since ’10. Saints won in 0:13 of OT vs Dallas, fastest OT in regular season history; they’ve won five of last six games vs Philly, scoring 34 ppg in winning last three; NO won 26-24 in last visit here, a ’13 playoff game. Saints’ only win was vs backup QB Weeden (5-17 as an NFL starter); Eagles were +3 in turnovers in only win- they didn’t score in second half of that game or first half last week. Since 2009, New Orleans is 6-9-1 as a road underdog.
Rams (2-2) @ Packers (4-0) — Green Bay won/covered all four games, winning all four by 8+ points; they’re 8-1-1 in last ten games as home favorite, 7-6-1 in last 14 non-divisional games. Emergence of rookie RB Gurley should give Rams balance on offense, but loss of LB Ogletree is big loss to talented defense. St Louis is 13-11 as road underdog with Fisher. Green Bay won last four series games, all by 10+ points, scoring 30.8 ppg; St Louis lost three of last four visits here, losing by 10-28-21 points. Rams beat Seattle/Arizona by total of five points, looked pathetic in other two games, getting inside opponents’ 20 once in the two games. St Louis covered one of last four pre-bye games. Over is 27-15 in Green Bay’s last 42 home games.
Seahawks (2-2) @ Bengals (4-0) — Unbeaten Cincy has 16 TDs on 40 drives and averaged 10.9/13.4 ypa last two games, huge numbers that’ll be tested by Seattle defense that hasn’t allowed offensive TD in two games since Chancellor returned. Hawks survived tough tilt late Monday night; they’re 0-2 on road- since ’11, they’re 8-5-3 as road dogs. Last couple of years, Bengals are 10-3-1 as home favorites. Seattle is 3-2 in last five series games; they are 5-3 in last eight visits here, but last one was in ’03. NFC North non-divisional favorites are 5-2; NFC West underdogs are 1-4. Over is 12-6 in Bengal home games last 2+ years; three of four Bengal games went over the total; last three Seahawk games stayed under.
Cardinals (3-1) @ Lions (0-4) — Short week for Detroit after last-minute loss Monday nite in Seattle; Lions are only NFL team with less than 20 rushing attempts in every game this year- they’re 1-4-1 as home dogs since 2010, losing 24-12 to Denver in only home game so far. Redbirds are 4-2 in last six games as road favorite; they crushed Bears in only game on road, running back for TD and scoring defensive TD. Arizona is 12-5 vs spread in last 17 road games, 20-5-1 in last 26 non-division games, 7-4-1 in games following an upset loss. Cardinals won last six series games; five of those six were in desert; they lost three of last four visits here, winning last viist in ’09. Arians vs Caldwell is huge coaching mismatch.
Patriots (3-0) @ Cowboys (2-2) — Since 2009, Patriots are 11-3 vs teams playing backup QB due to injury; they Weeden is now 5-18 as NFL starter (0-3 for Dallas) but he did lead tying TD drive last week and never got back on field as Saints scored last ten points of game; Cowboys are 4-18 on 3rd down last two games, after going 10-23 in first two; they also haven’t had takeaway in three of four games so far. New England is just 3-7 as a home favorite last 2+ years, 1-3 vs spread in last four post-bye games- they won last four series games with Dallas; three of those four were in Foxboro; Patriots lost four of last five visits here, but won 48-27 in last visit here, in ’07. Since ’08, Dallas is 6-2 as a home underdog.
Broncos (4-0) @ Raiders (2-2) — Del Rio was Broncos’ DC last few years; his Raiders are improved at 2-2 after tough loss in Chicago last week- they’re 10-15 as home dogs since ’10. Oakland averaged 7.5/9.8 ypa in their two wins, 4.1/4.9 in two losses. Broncos are yet to allow more than 5.9 ypa. Raider foes converted 18-33 on third down last two weeks; three of their four games went over total. Denver won last seven series games, all by 13+ points; they won last four visits here by average score of 35-16. Del Rio came to Oakland from being DC in Denver; four of nine TDs Broncos scored vs Oakland LY came on drives of less than 50 yards. Since 2011, Broncos are 15-8 against the spread as a road favorite.
49ers (1-3) @ Giants (2-2) — TE Fells is in hospital with MRSA; not sure how much of a distraction this is for Giant club that won last two games by 11-14 points after blowing a double digit 4th quarter lead in each of first two games. 49ers were outscored 90-25 in two road losses, giving up 13.7/9.3 ypa at Pitt/Arizona. Niners were outscored 67-13 in first half of last three games; only offensive TD they scored last two weeks came on drive of 19 yards. Big Blue won five of last seven series games, but lost three of last five played here; 49ers ran for 148 yards in 16-10 win here (-3.5) LY. Last 2+ years, Giants are 8-5 as home favorites. Niners are 2-5-1 in last eight games as a road underdog, but they’re 6-2-1 in last nine games as a non-divisional road dog.
Monday
Steelers (2-2) @ Chargers (2-2) — Expect Pitt to try and run ball; Chargers allowed 176/163 rushing yards in two losses, 69/100 in wins. Not convinced Vick isn’t washed up; he was 19-26/96 passing LW, but that was on short week of prep; they have three extra days to prep here after OT loss to Baltimore LW. San Diego allowed 24+ points in all four games; they beat Browns on last second FG, rallied from down 21-3 to beat Lions. Pitt is 20-11 vs spread in last 31 games as an underdog; they’re 8-2 in last ten games vs San Diego, with last visit in ’12. Pitt hasn’t been here since 2006. Since ’11, Bolts are 9-12 as home faves; they’re 9-13 vs spread in last 22 games where spread was 3 or less points; Steelers are 14-7 in last 21 such games.