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RIVER CITY SHARPS
Bears at Chiefs
While actual game statistics are always important in evaluating certain match ups, the NFL seems to be a much different handicapping game. In our opinion, it’s much more abut playing numbers and situations than offenses vs. defense. Lines are tighter, much more is known about internal team news, etc., that makes the NFL a difficult game for many handicappers to navigate. We have enjoyed a pretty good run in the NFL this season (70% ATS) and this isn’t a fluke as last year, we were the number one ranked handicapper on ROI with industry independent monitor Handicappers Watchdog.
We bring that up because we are taking a look at the Bears game Sunday at the Kansas City Chiefs and see that the home team is a 9-point favorite. Both teams enter this game at 1-3 on the season and the Bears are actually coming off a pretty nice home win over the Raiders. The game opened at an eye popping 10 point spread in favor of the Chiefs and has basically settled at 8.5 to 9 points, all of which are big numbers in the NFL, so what gives? Bigger numbers when you consider that the Chiefs aren’t exactly killing it so far this year.
While Andy Reid can be questioned for some of his early season play calling and the poor performance of the defense, he tends to be a master motivator in these type of situations when their backs are to the wall. Here’s the analysis of this game…The Bears have some major injury problems, especially on the offensive line, and we expect a serious Kansas City pass rush to welcome Cutler and the Bears this Sunday. He will also likely be missing WR Alshon Jeffery, which limits this offense even more against a Chiefs defense that is eager to prove their worth. The Chiefs have been a pretty good play against bad teams, going 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. teams with a losing record and in what is a more interesting (albeit somewhat obscure) trend is that these Chiefs are 13-2 ATS after allowing 25 points for three consecutive games.
Last time they went on the road, the Bears gave up almost 160 rushing yards in a loss to the Seahawks and we expect more of the same Sunday from Charles and the Chiefs. You are going to see an inspired, high energy effort from these Chiefs on Sunday and we fully expect a double digit victory. The Sharps say…
3 Units – Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5)