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2015 college football

Top 13 games
Iowa is 6-0 with wins at Iowa State (31-17), Wisconsin (10-6);
they’ve covered last seven tries as road favorite. Favorites won/covered last four Iowa-Northwestern games, after dog had won SU in previous six games; Iowa lost 28-17/23-17 in last two visits here. Northwestern got waxed at Michigan last week for first loss after 5-0 start; since ’08, they’re 8-10 as a home underdog. Big 14 home underdogs are 4-2 against spread.

Alabama pounded Texas A&M 59-0 LY, after surviving wild 49-42 tilt vs Manziel year before; Bama won last three games since Ole Miss loss by combined 99-24. Crimson Tide covered twice in last nine tries as road favorite; they won 38-10 at Georgia in only true road game this season. Aggies scored 38.8 ppg in 5-0 start; they’re 1-2 as home dogs in Sumlin era. SEC home underdogs are 5-3 against the spread this year.

Nebraska is having gut-wrenching season, losing four games, all 5 or less points and in last minute. Cornhuskers lost to Minnesota as double digit favorites last two years; they’re 4-1-1 in last six games as road underdog. Minnesota is 4-2 with three wins by exactly 3 points; Gophers are 9-5 as home favorites since 2012, but 0-2 this year- in last two games, they are just 26-50/181 passing. Big 14 home favorites are 4-4 vs spread.

Snyder is 11-4 in last 15 games as home underdog; K-State has QB who didn’t start a HS game, but they’ve scored 79 points in first two league games, losing 36-34/52-45 to unbeaten teams. Wildcats upset Oklahoma two of last three years, winning 31-30 (+7) LY, but Sooners won five in row at Little Apple, all by 10+ points. Oklahoma got drilled by Texas in rivalry game LW; over last 10+ years, they’re 18-9 vs spread off a loss.

Miami “faithful” aren’t happy with coach Golden; ‘canes lost last two games (both on road) after beating Nebraska in OT, blowing 3-TD lead in 4th quarter. Miami whacked Virginia Tech LY, just its second win in last five series games; dogs covered five of last seven in series. Hokies won two of last three visits here. Tech allowed 59 points in splitting pair of road games (Purdue/ECU); they covered four of last five as a road dog. ACC home favorites are 3-7 vs spread.

Michigan hasn’t allowed a point since Sept 19 vs UNLV; two of three teams they’ve blanked (BYU/NW’ern) will go to bowls. Wolverines lost six of last seven games with Michigan State, losing 35-11/29-6 last two years, but they did beat Spartans 12-10 in last meeting here. Michigan is 3-1 as HF under Harbaugh. State is 6-0 but struggled to beat Purdue and Rutgers last two games; they covered four of last five as road underdog.

Arizona State scored 86 points in winning last two games since horrible home loss to UCLA; Sun Devils won last four games with Utah, winning last two years by total of four points. ASU is 3-5 as road dog in Graham era. 5-0 Utah is in Cal/USC sandwich; they’re 10-11 as a home favorite since ’11, 1-2 this year. Pac-12 home teams are 3-11 against spread this season; home faves 3-6. Utes ran ball for 253 ypg the last three weeks.

Colorado gave up 592 rushing yards, 89 points in losing first two Pac-12 games, by 17-25 points; Buffs are 5-2 in last seven games as a home dog. Arizona gave up 111 points in losses to UCLA/Stanford, then pounded Oregon State LW; Wildcats are 4-2 as road faves under RichRod. Buffs lost last three games with Arizona by 18-24-25 points, with Arizona running ball for 377 ypg. Pac-12 home underdogs are 0-5 against spread.

Since 2011, Louisville is 10-0 as road underdogs; they lost 42-31 (+3.5) to Florida State LY, first ACC matchup. Cardinals are 1-3 vs I-A teams, upsetting NC State in last game. Florida State is 5-0 but scored only 22.3 ppg last three games- they’re off 29-24 win over rival Miami; Seminoles are 2-8 in last 10 games as a home favorite. FSU gave up 405 PY against Miami LW, could it be a red flag? ACC favorites are 4-10 against spread, this season, 3-7 at home.

USC heads to South Bend with another interim coach; this is fourth HC they’ve had in last four games with Notre Dame. Irish are 3-2 in last five games vs USC, but Trojans won 49-14 LY in LA, gaining 577 TY. USC is 5-13 vs spread in last 18 road games. Notre Dame ran for total of 394 yards last two games, after having 214+ YR in first four wins- they are 3-0 as home favorites this year, but just 21-31-3 since ’05. Pac-12 road underdogs are 3-1 vs spread out of conference.

SEC non-conference favorites are 8-15 vs spread, 1-3 away from home; Ole Miss won last six games vs Memphis, beating Tigers 24-3 LY, with previous meeting in ’09, before Memphis’ program was revived. Rebels ran ball for 215+ yards in three non-SEC games, but only 104 ypg in SEC play- they play Texas A&M next year. Memphis is 5-0 but they gave up 41 points to Bowling Green, 46 to Cincinnati in narrow wins.

Ohio State is 6-0 this season but failed to cover last five games, going 0-4 as a home favorite (12-14 under Meyer); four of last five games stayed under total. Buckeyes are 10-3 in last 13 games with Penn State, winning last three by 9-49-12 points. PSU did split last four visits here; they’ve beaten five stiffs since losing opener at Temple, only previous road game they’ve had. Since 2006, Lions are 5-11 vs spread as a road underdog.

Oregon is 3-3, allowing 47 ppg in losses, 34.7 in wins; they’re 2-0 as a road underdog since 2010. Ducks allowed 431+ TY in four of six games; they gave up 505 PY to Wazzu LW, 318 in win over Georgia St. Oregon won/covered 11 games in row vs Washington , with 17 points closest of the 11. Pac-12 home teams are 4-11 vs spread, 4-6 at home. Huskies are 11-6 as home favorites since ’11- they’re coming off upset win at USC.

Rest of card………

— Eastern Michigan lost last four games, allowing 44.3 ppg; they’ve lost last eight games with Toledo (2-6 vs spread). Toledo is 5-0 with wins over Arkansas, Iowa State.

— Central Florida is 0-6, allowing 38.7 ppg in last three games after they lost to a I-AA team; Knights beat Temple 39-36/34-14 last two years. Owls are 5-0, winning last two weeks by a combined 86-13.

— Buffalo lost last two games by total of nine points; Bulls lost last four games with Central Michigan, last three by 7 or less points. Chippewas lost three of last four games- they lost 41-39 at Western Michigan LW.

— Marshall won its last four games, three by 20+ points; Herd won last two games with Florida Atlantic, 35-16/24-23. Owls is 1-4 after 27-26 home loss to Rice LW; their only win was 17-7 over Charlotte.

— USF won last three games with UConn: 17-14/13-10/13-6; they had 282 rushing yards in 45-24 in over Syracuse LW, its first W in four I-A games. UConn lost three of last four games, but beat UCF 40-13 LW.

— Georgia Southern won its last four games by average score of 41-20 after a 44-0 loss at West Va in its opener; Eagles beat New Mexico State 36-28 (-19) LY. Aggies are 0-5, allowing average of 47 ppg.

— Middle Tennessee lost last three games, is 2-4; they scored 70+ points in both wins. MTSU is 6-3 in last nine games with FIU (favorites 6-2 vs spread in last eight). FIU is 3-3, 0-3 when it allows more than 14 points.

— Ball State lost last three games, allowing 843 YR, 35.7 ppg. Georgia State lost its last three games by average score of 46-21. MAC non-conference favorites are 5-4, 3-3 at home.

— Boston College has lost games 14-0/9-7/3-0 this year; they scored 24 points total in last four games. BC lost last four games with Clemson by average of 31-18; underdogs covered seven of last ten series games.

— Virginia is 0-4 vs I-A teams, losing 26-19 at Pitt in only I-A game this year; Cavaliers lost 34-27 to Notre Dame, 56-14 to Boise State at home. Syracuse allowed 550 rushing yards in losing last two games by 10-21.

— Wisconsin won last nine games with Purdue, last seven by 17+ points; Badgers won four of last five games; their last two were decided by total of six points. Purdue lost last four games by average of 38-22.

— North Carolina suspended two CBs (off-field) for this game; Tar Heels allowed 253 rushing ypg last three games, including 279 to I-AA team. Wake Forest won 3-0 at BC LW, they’re 0-3 allowing more than 14 pts.

— Kansas lost 66-7 at home to Baylor LW; they’re 0-5 with loss to I-AA team, with I-A losses by average of 46-14. Texas Tech scored 51 ppg in last three games, but lost two of three- they won 35-24 at Arkansas.

— Nevada won two of last three games, running for 289/351 yards in two wins. Wyoming is 0-6 with I-AA loss, allowing 38-31 points in its two MW games- they allowed 283 rushing ypg in last three games.

— Mississippi State resumes SEC play next week; they beat Louisiana Tech 26-20 in OT in last meeting, in ’11. Tech won last three games since 39-33 loss at K-State, scoring average of 34.7 ppg.

— UMass (even) won 40-16 at kent in first series game LY; UMass gave up 725 TY in 62-38 loss at Bowling Green LW- they’re 1-4, with losses by 34-2-35-24. Kent is 1-4 vs I-A teams, scoring 7 or less points three times.

— Western Michigan won four of last five games with Ohio U, three of four wins were by 13+ points. Broncos gave up 993 TY last two games, winning 41-39 LW. Ohio is 5-1 with a 27-24 loss at Minnesota.

— Northern Illinois won six of last seven games with Miami, but is 0-5 vs spread in last five, with three wins by 5 or less points. Huskies ended 3-game skid with 59-41 win over Ball State LW. Miami lost its last five games, allowing 41 ppg.
— Air Force won eight of last nine games with Colorado State; favorites are 5-3 vs spread in last eight series games. Falcons won first two MW games by 21-14 points. Colorado State lost four of its last five games.

— Road team won all three Mizzou-Georgia games; Dawgs won 34-0 in Columbia LY. Tigers lost two of last three games; they gained less than 300 TY in four of last five games. Georgia lost 38-10/38-31 last 2 games.

— Georgia Tech lost its last four games, allowing 36.3 ppg; they were 32 of 81 passing (585 yds) in those games. Tech beat Pitt 56-28/21-10 last two years. Panthers are 4-1, with only loss 27-24 at unbeaten Iowa.

— Baylor lost 41-27 at West Virginia LY; Bears are 5-0 his year, scoring 63.8 ppg- 28 points is least they’ve won by. West Virginia lost in OT at home to Okla State LW; they lost only road game 44-24 at Oklahoma.

— Indiana (+8) lost 45-23 at Rutgers LY; Hoosiers are 4-2, they have to win this game, if they want to go bowling- rest of their schedule is hard. Rutgers lost three of last four games, but lost only 31-24 to Mich State last week- they gave up 357 PY.

— Why are Idaho, Troy in same league? Mapquest says they’re 2,541 miles apart. Vandals are 0-4 vs I-A teams, allowing 49.3 ppg. Troy lost last three games, scoring total of 38 points (12.7 ppg)- they lost Sun Belt opener 24-18 at home to South Alabama.

— Tulsa is 3-2, they’ve gained 563+ TY in four games; Hurricane lost last five games with East Carolina (1-4 vs spread), allowing 50.5 ppg in last four. ECU is 2-3 vs I-A teams, with an average total of 67.8.

— Southern Miss (+9) lost 12-10 to Tx-San Antonio LY; Golden Eagles are 2-3 vs I-A teams, scoring 56-49 in wins. UTSA is 1-5 with win at UTEP; their last two losses were by total of five points.

— Appalachian State won last three games by combined score of 117-20 since losing at Clemson; they’ve run ball for 253 ypg in those wins. ASU (-4.5) beat UL-Monroe 31-29 LY. ULM is 0-4 vs I-A teams, allowing an average of 42.5 ppg.

— Old Dominion lost last three games by combined score of 104-21 as realities of being I-A newbie set in. But Charlotte is also a newbie; they lost last three games by combined score of 127-24.

— South Carolina has interim coach after Spurrier quit earlier in week; they’ve lost four of last five games overall, but won six in row vs Vandy by average score of 26-15- Commodores covered last three series games.

— Washington State won three of last four games; they upset Oregon in Eugene LW. Coogs are 3-8 in last 11 games with Oregon State- dogs are 4-1 vs spread in last five series games. Beavers lost 42-24/44-7 in first two Pac-12 games.

— Bowling Green scoring 41.7 ppg in winning last three games; they won last six games vs Akron (five by 14+ points). Zips won three of last four games, with only loss 14-12 at home to Ohio U.

— TCU won 52-45 at K-State LW after being down 35-18 at half; Frogs are 6-0, scoring 50+ in last five games- they beat Iowa State 55-3/21-17 in last two visits here, but are just 3-11 vs spread as a road favorite.

— New Mexico allowed 659 rushing yards in last two games; they won 35-23 (-2) in last game with Hawai’i (’12). Hawai’i overscheduled, so it is tough to analyze them; they lost 28-14 at home to San Diego State LW; total yardage was 402-251, Aztecs.

— San Diego State beat San Jose State last two years, 34-30/38-7; Aztecs won first two MW games 21-7/28-14 but they also have ugly home loss to South Alabama. San Jose won 33-27 in OT at UNLV last week.