- January 16, 2016 at 4:00 pm #26217
Kansas City / New England – Under 44
1 unitJanuary 16, 2016 at 4:02 pm #26218
3* Teaser ‘GOY’
Cardinals and SeahawksJanuary 16, 2016 at 4:18 pm #26219
Arizona -4 (-120)
$1000January 16, 2016 at 4:29 pm #26223
Premium Play Dangerous Divisional Rounder
Kansas City Chiefs vs. New England Patriots (NFL)
4:35 PM EST New England Patriots
Play Title: 8 Star Dangerous Divisional Rounder
Play Selected: Money Line: -224
Analysis: The 13 different O-Line combinations that the New England Patriots have put out certainly raises a flag. However, this game is in Foxborough & their HC is still Bill Belichick, who is a brilliant 14-2 SU @ home in the playoffs. Let’s now answer & examine a few facts. Yes, the Tea-Men have looked flat the last weeks of the season (versus the Jets & the Dolphins) largely due to their extensive injuries combined with the fact that Belichick didn’t care (with healing for the playoffs at a premium). Yes, they were manhandled last year 41-14 in KC in a game where Tom Brady (36/7 TD/INT ratio, 4,770 passing yards good for a 102.2 passer rating) was actually benched for Jimmy Garoppolo. Yes, NE has to face a Bob Sutton defense that is flexible – using 6 DB’s about 40% of the time. Those facts may be all good but the Red & Gold “D” can’t put added pressure on the experienced Brady by putting their safeties in the box, an advantage the Patriots’ “D” might get to employ since the Chiefs won’t have a healthy WR in Jeremy Maclin roaming downfield. When following Kansas City HC Andy Reid’s mantra of minimizing mistakes (just 16 in 17 games) & forcing opponent miscues (+20 in their 11 wins consecutively & 34 in 17 games), one would think this is a juicy spot to pile a ton of money on the Boys from Arrowhead. I just don’t see it playing out that way. My bottom line says Tom Brady is 10-2 SU in his 1st game of a playoff year for good reasons – experience & adaptability. HC Andy Reid has also beaten Bill Belichick just once in 5 tries. So where is this game won? OC Josh McDaniels & Belichick will devise a game plan predicated on creating mismatches over the middle with his TE Rob Gronkowski while also utilizing his WR’s Julian Edelman (Pats scored 30 or more in 67% of games he was in) & Danny Amendola with rub routes (also known as picks) which they know KC’s defense has struggled with in the past. On defense, DC Matt Patricia can afford to load the box to stuff RB’s Charcandrick West, Spencer Ware (won’t be 100%) & Knile Davis for the majority. They know forcing QB Alex Smith (20/7 TD/INT ratio, 3,486 passing yards good for a 95.4 passer rating) to throw 35 or more times to a lack of playmakers is a stat in their favor. Remember, it is the New England “D” that’s 2nd in the league (only to Denver) with 49 recorded sacks. When it comes down to the nitty gritty, HC Reid is great when his team is the underdog. But face it, he’s a terrible clock manager overall. Let’s not over-react to the KC shutout win over a bad Houston team. With already 4 straight AFC title games played in a row, I feel this is #5 for Foxborough’s Finest who also get key OLT Sebastian Vollmer back this week. This also represents the 1st playoff game in 56 years between the Patriots & Chiefs (formerly the Dallas Texans). Let’s get ready to go up to the 35 degrees & slightly soggy Gillette Stadium to play the New England Patriots for the “W” as my 8 Star Dangerous Divisional Rounder!January 16, 2016 at 4:58 pm #26228
Over 43 – KC vs NEPJanuary 16, 2016 at 5:20 pm #26229
NFL: *TEASER* $800
CHIEFS +12 :: CARDINALS -PK
(7PT TEASER ‘ TIES REDUCE) -125
KC CHIEFS -ML (+215)
*BUY PT* -130January 16, 2016 at 5:20 pm #26230
*PT BUY* -130January 16, 2016 at 5:21 pm #26231
*PT BUY* -130January 16, 2016 at 5:21 pm #26232
JLB SPORTS INFO
*PT BUY* -130January 16, 2016 at 5:23 pm #26235
Exodus to Black
NEP-5January 16, 2016 at 5:24 pm #26236
(302) NE PATRIOTS -4-120
2 TM TEASE (304) AZ CARDINALS -1 / (308) DEN BRONCOS -1January 16, 2016 at 5:25 pm #26237
Chiefs / Patriots – Under 43
Packers / Cardinals – Over 49January 16, 2016 at 5:32 pm #26238
Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (-5) 4:35 EST CBS
Round two of the NFL Playoffs begins with the Kansas City Chiefs, the hottest team in the league, visiting the New England Patriots, the defending Super Bowl Champs. Kickoff is at 4:35 eastern as televised by CBS. One would normally expect the Patriots to be rolling this time of year. Rather, it is New England that is entering off consecutive season ending losses, while the Kansas City Chiefs enter as the hottest team in the league with 11 consecutive victories. None of the other seven teams have more than a two game win streak. Yet the opinion here gravitates toward the defending champs in bounce back mode against the upstart Chiefs.
Last week, the Chiefs put a 30-0 whipping on the Houston Texans. They outrushed and out passed Houston for a combined 314-226 advantage, but the real reason for the victory was a +4 net turnover margin for Kansas City, which gave Houston no chance at being in the game. With that +4 net turnover margin last week, Kansas City enters today with a +18 net TO margin for the season, a lofty number to be sure. If they are going to rely on turnovers for their success, however, it will probably not happen against a New England team who is #1 in the NFL with a miserly 14 giveaways for the season. There is lots of respect from this bureau with Andy Reid and his road record as head coach. In fact, the road team in Kansas City games is now on a 34-9 ATS run. Chiefs’ QB Smith has been more than serviceable in the Chiefs’ late season run, but he does not have nearly the playoff experience with a record of 2-2 SU in playoffs. His efficiency will be further hampered if WR Maclin is unable to make post. Before you get too excited about that Chiefs’ record, note that it came courtesy of a weak schedule down the stretch, with their last seven regular season games against non-playoff teams. In the role of underdog, they were just 1-3 ATS this year, with a victory at Denver, but losses at Minnesota, Cincinnati, and Green Bay. Defense became their calling card, as they allowed just 17 PPG and only 323 yards for the season.
On the other bench is the far greater experience of QB Brady, who is 21-8 SU in the playoffs. He may well welcome back WR Edelman. At his disposal, Brady also has two powerful weapons in TE Gronkowski and PK Gostkowski. The Pats enter the playoffs following consecutive losses at the New York Jets and Miami. In the season ending loss to the Dolphins, they rested many of their regulars in a game where they were outgained 438-196. Looking for more motivation for the New Englanders? How about 41-14 MNF revenge for a loss at KC last season. You can do a lot worse in this game than line up with New England off consecutive favorite losses, and against a KC team who brings a short road dog price tag off their 11 game win streak.
Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals (-7) 8:15 EST NBC
Green Bay travels to the desert for this revenge matchup against an Arizona Cardinals team who looks to bounce back from their most embarrassing defeat in the last several years. With emotional factors favoring either team, it is a bit shocking to this bureau that at this writing the Cardinals are drawing more public money than any of the other seven playoff teams. That is a good reason in and of itself to favor the Green Bay Packers, who were a totally different team in the last three quarters of their playoff victory over Washington last week.
When these teams met on this field just three short weeks ago, Arizona won the matchup 38-6 in a game that was not as close as the final score. The fierce Arizona pass rush overwhelmed the injury plagued Green Bay line, sacked QB Rodgers multiple times, and forced him to spend much of the game in a horizontal position. Fat off that victory and facing divisional opponent Seattle whom they had beaten November 13th 39-32, Arizona mailed it in in a 36-6 defeat to the Seahawks. What goes around comes around. In that game, they were outrushed 145-27 and were a -3 in the net turnover column. In the previous millennium, there was a strong school of thought that rested home teams were like money in the bank in the playoffs. But with the line being inflated on many of these teams in recent years, these rested homers in the playoffs are just 13-23 ATS. There is no doubt merit to playing moneymaking HC Arians off a loss, a situation in which he is 11-4 SU ATS. But QB Palmer, despite his many years in the league, is 0-2 SU ATS in the playoffs. Finally from a technical perspective, Arizona is just 1-5 ATS on their home field recently, with that lone cover coming against Green Bay. There is little doubt that Arizona is the best offensive team remaining in the playoffs. They average 31 PPG, 408 YPG, and 6.4 offensive yards per play. With the way in which they dominated Green Bay just three weeks ago, there is little wonder they are attracting ample public money.
But you need look no further than last week’s Minnesota/Seattle playoff game to see why regular season dominance is no guarantee of post season success. Surely the psychological edge belongs to Green Bay. Following that embarrassing loss to Arizona, many handicappers, including this bureau, believed the Packers would bounce at home, vying for the divisional title and a home game in the playoffs vs a Vikings team they had earlier defeated 30-13. But when the smoke cleared, the Vikings emerged with a 20-13 win, their first against the winning team all season. Again, the Green Bay offense was in total disarray. That’s the way their playoff game at Washington began last week, with the nadir of their discontent coming when QB Rodgers was sacked for a safety. It took until midway in the second quarter for the Packers to regain their mojo. I understand it was “only Washington”, but the confidence exhibited by Green Bay in the second half signaled a clear turnaround in their psyche. With the momentum of that victory, the revenge from three short weeks ago, and the greater playoff experience with QB Rodgers, it would be no surprise to see the Packers garner the surprising upset.January 16, 2016 at 8:48 pm #26248
4* AZ -7 over Packers
2* Patriots / Chiefs – Over 42 (sorry late)January 16, 2016 at 8:56 pm #26249
5* UNDER 49.5 – Packers @ Cardinals
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.