January 27, 2016 at 10:21 am #28327
Panthers, Broncos clash in Super Bowl 50
By Zach Cohen
CAROLINA PANTHERS (17-1) vs. DENVER BRONCOS (14-4)
Kickoff: Sunday, 6:40 p.m. ET
‘Super Bowl 50’– Levi’s Stadium – Santa Clara, CA
Line: Carolina -4.5, Total: 45.0
Cam Newton will be looking to cap off a magical season by leading the Panthers to a win over Peyton Manning and the Broncos in Super Bowl 50.
The Panthers embarrassed the Cardinals in the NFC Championship Game, winning 49-15 as three-point home favorites. Carolina comes into the Super Bowl with three straight victories both SU and ATS. The team has been dominant on both sides of the ball, averaging 39.9 PPG and allowing just 16.3 PPG over the course of the winning streak. The Broncos, meanwhile, defeated the Patriots 20-18 as three-point home underdogs in the AFC Championship Game. Denver has now won four straight games coming into this contest, but the team covered in just one of those victories. The last time the Broncos faced the Panthers was Nov. 11, 2012, when Denver won 36-14 as a 3.5-point favorite in Carolina. There are plenty of trends that will need to be taken into consideration when looking into this game. Working in Carolina’s favor is the fact that the team is 11-2 ATS when playing on a grass field this season and 17-3 ATS after three consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better since 1992. Denver, meanwhile, is 17-4 ATS when playing with two weeks or more of rest since 1992 and 10-1 ATS in games played away from home on a grass field over the past three seasons. Another thing worth noting is that underdogs are 11-3 ATS in the past 14 Super Bowls. The Panthers will be dealing with a number of injuries in this game, as S Roman Harper (Eye), LB Thomas Davis (Arm) and DE Jared Allen (Foot) are listed as questionable for this one. All of the players are likely going to take the field, but they may be less effective than usual. For the Broncos, S Darian Stewart (Knee) and S T.J. Ward (Ankle) are listed as questionable for this one.
The Panthers have been dominant all season long and the team continued to roll with a 49-15 victory against the Cardinals in the NFC Championship Game. Carolina forced Arizona to turn the ball over seven times and the defense will be looking for more of the same against Denver in the Super Bowl. Peyton Manning is one of the best quarterbacks ever to play, but he has an extremely weak arm at this point in his career. Luke Kuechly will be somebody that Manning will really need to keep an eye on, as the linebacker has had a pick-six in back-to-back games. The Panthers must also focus on stopping the run, though. Denver has leaned heavily on the rushing attack and Carolina’s fourth-ranked rushing defense will need to be ready to play in the biggest game of the year. Offensively, this Panthers team will attack Denver in a number of different ways. Cam Newton must come through with a big game against the Broncos and it’s hard to imagine him not finding success. Newton threw for 335 yards with two touchdowns and just one interception against the Cardinals last game. He also added 10 carries for 47 yards and two scores. The field opens up for all of the Panthers’ weapons when Newton is running the ball well and Carolina will definitely try to get him going on the ground in the first half of this game. Jonathan Stewart will also help wear down the defense with some punishing runs up the middle. Stewart has rushed for 189 yards and two touchdowns on 38 carries in two postseason games. He is looking as explosive as ever and will be leaned on heavily in this one. Through the air, Newton will be targeting Greg Olsen and Ted Ginn Jr. often. Olsen has 12 catches for 190 yards and a score in the postseason and is Newton’s go-to option. He is capable of creating space for himself as well as any tight end in the league and Newton won’t hesitate to find him in this one. Ginn Jr., meanwhile, is a deep threat that Newton will be looking to take advantage of. He has blazing speed and will make the Broncos pay for any mistakes in coverage in the Super Bowl.
The Broncos had to go through Tom Brady and the Patriots in the AFC Championship game and their defense played an unbelievable game to secure the win for Denver. The league’s top-ranked defense forced Tom Brady to throw two interceptions in the game and also sacked the legendary quarterback four times. Denver was dialing up blitzes left and right and will need to find a way to get pressure on Cam Newton in the Super Bowl. Newton is an explosive player in a number of different ways and the Broncos absolutely must contain him. Offensively, the Broncos could use a vintage performance from Peyton Manning. That is unlikely to happen, though, and the team would probably be equally as happy if Manning can just avoid turning the ball over in this one. He did just that against the Patriots last game, throwing for 176 yards with two touchdowns and no picks. Owen Daniels was a big factor in the victory over New England, catching both of the touchdowns in that game. Manning will likely be looking to him often in this game as well. Demaryius Thomas could help Denver win by performing at a high level in this one. Thomas has struggled in the postseason, catching just six passes for 52 yards. He is one of the best receivers in the league and must make a bigger impact in this one. The most important thing for the Broncos offense, however, is the running game. C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman will need to make some plays in this game, as Manning no longer has the arm to defeat his opponents through the air. If they can take some pressure off of Manning and the passing game then the Broncos could pull off the upset in Super Bowl 50.January 27, 2016 at 10:23 am #28328
Super Bowl 50 Betting Update
January 26, 2016
By Micah Roberts
Update – 1.26.16 – 12:45 p.m. ET
The easy part for Las Vegas sports books was posting a Super Bowl number on Sunday night. But the tough roll-up-your-sleeves type of work starts on Tuesday and continues through Thursday as the books start making numbers on just about everything offered in a box score.
It’s Super Bowl prop time and to get some insight on what kind of timeline were looking at before wagering starts, we talked with Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook assistant manager Jeff Sherman as he was on his way to Manager Ed Salmons’ house for what is expected to be an all day affair of cramming through data to compile what has becomes the world’s most famous Super Bowl propositions.
“We’ll work about 10 hours today and probably another eight hours tomorrow,” said Sherman, who has been doing this prop routine with Salmons and VP Jay Kornegay for nearly two decades dating back to their days together at the Imperial Palace. Supervisor Randy Blum has also been included in the meeting of prop minds for the past few Super Bowls.
“We’ve been setting up our template’s in the system and preparing sheets for the last couple of days. The only thing we need to add is players names and the actual odds. After reviewing everything Thursday, we should have about 350 props opened for wagering at 7 pm PT.”
Sheets will be available Friday and prop wagering on the Westgate’s new phone app will be turned on Saturday — they want the sharp early action coming through the bet windows first. If in Nevada, no account is necessary to download the Westgate’s app. It’s a nice tool to have for the next week just to compare real time prop prices at other books.
This Westgate crew deserves a lot of credit for what has happened in the Super Bowl prop world here in Las Vegas. They took things to a new level and forced the competition to catch up. First it was 20 props, then 50, 100, 200 and 300 — higher and higher each year. They were one of the first crews in the city to use box scores from other sports to make a Super Bowl prop. They thought outside of the box and others followed — some books even stole their sheets and used the same bet numbers and pasted their own logo on it and passed it off as their own.
Jay Kornegay says that 50 percent of their Super Bowl handle comes from props. No other book in town has that kind of equal action, but they’re all catching up as the prop wagers have become so popular with fringe once-a-year type of bettors. The beauty about the props is that the books get another outlet for making money and aren’t at the risk they used to be in if the worst side and total decision comes in on the Super Bowl. They also get tons of free national publicity.
We’ll have all 350 props posted on Friday afternoon.
What’s going on with the number?
It’s been all Carolina money from the masses so far and Boyd Gaming has the highest number in town with the Panthers at -5.5. Everyone else is at -4.5 or -5. The total is steady at 45.5 at most places with Stations being the highest at 46. The lowest money-line price on Carolina is -200 at several books with Aliante being the highest at -220 with a take back of +190 on Denver, which is the best dog price in towm. William Hill sports books’ head oddsmaker Nick Bogdanovich said they took a $623,000 wager (wins $327,894) on the Panthers money-line at -190 and moved to -200 (+175 take back on Denver).
Update – 1.26.16 – 12:05 a.m. ET
While I love the idea that ESPN’s First Take is talking Las Vegas Super Bowl numbers, I thought analyst Skip Bayless did an awful job of disseminating the actual betting information when reporting that lots of big Denver money came in to drop the number.
Yes, early Denver money did come in at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook Sunday night when they posted +5.5, but with such small early limits and a market not set yet, they weren’t married to the number and got in line with other books.
The real story in Las Vegas is that everyone is betting the Panthers as if they’ve seen the final score already. William Hill’s 104 sports books across Nevada has seen 90 percent of its tickets Super Bowl tickets on the Panthers (-4) and 86 percent of actual cash wagered on them as well. It’s the same story all across town.
Okay, so it’s early and everyone has the Panthers 49-15 win over the Cardinals fresh in their minds. Arizona was a team many thought was truly super and destined for a title, including myself, and the Panthers beat them down like they were a nobody such as the Tennessee Titans. They also slapped the Seattle Seahawks around the week before, a team most oddsmakers had rated as the tops in the league.
However, after a week or so of thinking about things, bettors may start to soften on the Broncos and its No. 1 ranked defense. Defense is supposed to win championships and Denver’s has carried them all season and now play in the big game. Sure, quarterback Peyton Manning isn’t allowed to throw more than 30 yards downfield — he can’t physically do it anymore, but if he can refrain from turning the ball over like early in the season they can stay in this game.
The bettors who like Denver are waiting on the sidelines with their wads of cash waiting to see how many points they can get. Why take the high number of +5 at Stations or MGM right now when the Panthers risk is only going to get higher. Knowing that 5 and 5.5 are dead numbers, large money waiting for Denver knows they can wait things out for 13 days and possibly get +6. There’s no edge or reason to bet Denver now.
Limits will be raised higher over the next week at most books, but when the straight action and parlay money starts creating lopsided risk on Carolina the books will be forced to move. Sharps know this and the books know this and it will be like a staring contest to see who blinks first.
Stay tuned, we’ll have more updates daily as stuff happens in Las Vegas.
Update – 1.25.16 – 12:05 a.m. ET
Most Las Vegas sports books opened the Carolina Panthers as 4-point favorites over the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl 50, a number that was elevated to extreme measures based on power ratings.
“We opened Carolina -5.5,” said Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook VP Jay Kornegay, “but early Denver action dropped the number.”
The Westgate settled at Carolina -4 after all the early wagers with a total at 45. Las Vegas oddsmaker Kenny White had Denver 1-point better on a neutral field than Carolina before Sunday’s games.
When the Panthers demolished the Cardinals, 49-15, the public was all in with Carolina with early wagers.
“We wanted to be high with our number knowing the public would take Carolina,” said MGM Resorts sports books VP Jay Rood who opened -4.5. “So far we’re at a 6-to-1 ratio on tickets bet with the Panthers and we’re at a 4-to-1 ratio with cash taken in.”
The good news for the sports books is that the game isn’t a ‘3’ which means they have lots of wiggle room to maneuver.
The bad news is that they know the majority public wagers will be on Carolina and its possible that if the wagers become too one-sided that from the public that it could rise to -6 passing the dead numbers of -5 and -5.5.
However, sharps showed that they liked Denver at +5.5 at the Westgate. But remember that “sharp money” pales in comparison to the overall handle is wagered in the Super Bowl.
We’ll be updating everything that happens in Las Vegas regarding the Super Bowl spread, so be sure to check us out. Props are expected to open this Friday (1/29/16).
Roberts is a former Las Vegas sports book director that has been covering the sports betting industry for the last 12 years.January 27, 2016 at 10:24 am #28329
NFL oddsmakers have Panthers favored for Super Bowl 50 after impressive win
By Colin Kelly
The Carolina Panthers and the Denver Broncos, both No. 1 seeds, have made it to historic Super Bowl 50. But it sure feels like that old bit on “Sesame Street,” doesn’t it?
“One of these things is not like the other. One of these things just doesn’t belong.”
Carolina, the top team all season long in the NFC, sure looked like all that and more on a Sunday that couldn’t have featured a larger dichotomy of conference championship games. One game was an absolute blowout, the other an ugly nailbiter right down to the wire.
The Panthers led No. 2 seed Arizona 17-0 by the end of the first quarter and never let off the accelerator, boatracing the Cardinals 49-15 as a 3-point home chalk in the NFC title game. Carolina is now a robust 17-1 SU, with a stout 13-5 ATS mark to go with it heading into the Super Bowl on Feb. 7 at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif.
Waiting for the Panthers will be the Denver Broncos, who slogged to a 20-18 victory over No. 2 seed New England, getting the outright win as a 3-point home underdog in AFC final. After leading 17-9 at halftime and looking somewhat capable on offense behind Peyton Manning, Denver mustered just three second-half points, yet somehow managed to beat the defending Super Bowl champions.
The Pats got a late TD to make it 20-18, but the 2-point try failed, as a missed extra point early in the game came back to haunt New England big time. The Broncos, riding a defense that has been as amazing as the offense has been dismal, are 14-4 SU and 10-8 ATS.
John Lester, senior lines manager for Bookmaker, set the line at Panthers -4.
“You’ve got the top-ranked defense in the league against the most dazzling offense we’ve seen in years. Hopefully, this matchup will live up to the Super Bowl 50 aura,” Lester said. “Bettors have been down on Denver all year, so we felt comfortable making Carolina a favorite higher than -3.
“It’s likely we’ll see many of the very recreational bettors backing Denver because of the Peyton Manning legacy. Everyone wants to see him ride off into the sunset.”
Johnny Avello, executive director of race and sports for Wynn Las Vegas, didn’t let Carolina’s performance sway him quite as much, opening the Panthers as 3.5-point chalk.
“I was thinking 3 at halftime of the Carolina game, but the Panthers’ play has elevated my and the bettors’ appreciation of them,” Avello said. “It’s a neutral site, and Peyton Manning is the opponent, along with the top defense, so I didn’t want to get too carried away. But the Panthers have been fast starters in their games as of late and difficult to slow down.”
Jay Kornegay, executive vice president of race and sports for the Westgate’s Superbook, said his shop got an early jump by posting a line well before the Carolina-Arizona game ended.
“We put Carolina up at -5.5, and it was quickly bet down,” Kornegay said. “We took some larger plays on Denver, and now Carolina is down to -4.”
The Wynn posted a total of 45.5, while the Superbook was at 44.5. Up next for those shops and many others: Super Bowl proposition bets.
“The line’s up, and it’s on to the props,” Avello said.January 27, 2016 at 10:30 am #28330
Manning opens a Super Bowl underdog for first time in his career
By Andrew Caley
If Peyton Manning wants to ride off into the sunset a Super Bowl champion, he will have to do it as an underdog.
Manning and the Denver Broncos will enter Super Bowl 50 at Levi’s Stadium on Feb. 7 versus the Carolina Panthers as pups, opening at +4 at several offshore books including Pinnacle Sports and Sportsbook. They are +3.5 at William Hill.
It is the first time in Manning’s career he will be an underdog in the Super Bowl and according to Pete Childs, supervisor of risk management at Sportsbook, that number should grow and already has in some cases.
“We already moved the Panthers to -5 with all early money so far on the favorite. The Panthers been very good to bettor’s pockets, I can only see them backing them again here in the last game of the season,” Childs.
The Panthers enter Super Bowl 50 as one of the NFL’s best bets, going 13-5 ATS this season and are coming off the complete dismantling of the Cardinals, easily covering the 3-point chalk in their 49-15 NFC Championship win.
Meanwhile, the Broncos upset the New England Patriots 20-18 as 3-point home dogs in the AFC Championship game and are now 9-8-1 against the spread this season, but 5-0 ATS as pups. (Two of those covers were with Brock Osweiler at quarterback).
The total opened between 43.5 and 44.5 depending on the book and has even been bet up to 45 already at Sportsbooks. The Broncos are 6-11-1 over/under this season, while the Panthers are 12-5-1 O/U.January 27, 2016 at 10:32 am #28331
Sharps share best plan of attack for betting the Super Bowl 50 odds
By AAA SPORTS
Each week during the pro football season, Art Aronson of AAA Sports looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later and and which total to watch as the week plays out. This week, he helps you plan your attack on the Super Bowl 50 odds.
Super Bowl 50: Denver Broncos vs. Carolina Panthers (-4, 45)
How to navigate spread
Denver’s game plan for the Super Bowl is simple: knock Cam Newton silly by sending him to the ground 20 or more times. What, wrong game? The Broncos are likely to find a completely different opponent from the wounded group of wildebeests that the New England Patriots imitated on Sunday in the AFC Championship Game.
While Carolina’s plans are not yet completely formed, it is rumored that unlike the Patriots, the Panthers actually plan to include some offensive linemen on their active roster when the game takes place on Feb. 7 in Santa Clara, California.
Books moved fast to set the line Sunday night, and while four seemed to be the consensus number, savvy line shoppers could find the number a half-point lower or a half-point higher, depending on where they wanted to place their money. Early money was down on the Panthers by a wide margin, bettors obviously impressed by their dominating 49-15 victory over the Cardinals in which Carolina jumped out early and then played with Arizona the way a cat would play with a dead mouse.
Peyton Manning was as good as he had to be against the Patriots, but will that be good enough against a young, strong and “running against the wind” Panthers team that has the best player in the league, a real offensive line and momentum that 31 other teams can only dream about?
How to navigate total
So it comes down to this: can the Broncos turn this into a field position game in which the teams give up first downs grudgingly? Or will the Panthers strike early like they did against both the Seahawks and Cardinals, put a few scores on the board in the early going and then dare Manning to start throwing the ball?
Manning was as good as could be expected against a pretty good New England defense, but against Carolina he may be forced to do what may be impossible given his age and the wear and tear on his body – namely, bring his game to an even higher level. The Broncos sent Brady to the turf 20 times in the AFC title game. If Carolina has its act together early and can let its defensive linemen loose, it might be Manning’s turn in the barrel.January 27, 2016 at 10:35 am #28332
Sharp bettors are drooling over these can’t-miss spot bet opportunities
By Ben Burns
Spot bets are classic handicapping practices that have proven profitable no matter what sport you’re betting. Whether it’s a team looking past this week’s opponent, one coming off a hard-fought victory, or a rough patch of schedule, bettors can find value picking their spots. Ben Burns points out his favorites:
Super Bowl 50 is still about two weeks away from kickoff, which gives both the Panthers and Broncos plenty of time to build butterflies in their stomach before the Big Game. As is the case in most championship tilts, contending teams are a little tight early on – manifesting in dropped passes and mental mistakes – and go through a bit of a “feeling out” process in the opening minutes of the game. Super Bowl is no exception.
The last eight Super Bowls have averaged just over a touchdown in the opening 15 minutes, including a big goose egg between the Patriots and Seahawks in Super Bowl XLIX last year. Those 7.12 average points sit below the set total for the first quarter, which opened 7.5 (Over -125/Under +105). Carolina was the highest scoring team in the NFL this season and averaged 7.2 points in the opening frame but allowed just 3.9 points against in that span. Denver put up 4.4 points per while giving up an average of a field goal against in the first quarter. With some big stage jitters, there could continue to be value with a first-quarter letdown.January 27, 2016 at 10:38 am #28333
Is Super Bowl a young man’s game? It is for quarterbacks
Jan 26, 2016
Since 1990, there have been 12 matchups in the Super Bowl that have seen a young quarterback (29 years or younger) against a veteran signal-caller (30 years or older).
Football bettors got this contrast in Super Bowl XLIX with Russell Wilson vs. Tom Brady, and have it again with Cam Newton (26) and Peyton Manning (39) facing off in Super Bowl 50 on February 7. Newton’s Carolina Panthers are 4-point favorites against Manning’s Denver Broncos, with the veteran passer set to become the oldest QB to ever start a Super Bowl game.
Looking at those past dozen matchups of young vs. old QBs, the Super Bowl appears to be a young man’s game with those sub-30 quarterbacks leading their teams to an 8-4 SU record while going 7-5 ATS. Last season, Wilson threw a now-notorious goal-line interception to give Brady and the Patriots a 28-24 victory as 1-point favorites.
In those select 12 “Big Games”, the younger counterpart has been used more sparingly compared to their elder, with young QBs boasting an average of 218.3 yards through the air per Super Bowl on a 61 percent completion rate while older QBs posted an average of 272.3 yards passing and completed 63.3 percent of their throws.
In terms of touchdowns-to-interceptions, older passers have amassed 20 TD passes to 16 interceptions while younger QBs have connected for 17 scores and just 10 total interceptions in those past 12 situations.
Heading into Super Bowl 50, Newton has averaged 239.8 yards passing per game in the regular season (59.8% completions) and 248 average yards (70% completions) in two postseason games. He has 38 total passing TDs and 11 INTs in those games.
Manning, on the other hand, averaged 224.9 yards passing (59.8% completions) in 10 regular season games and has passed for an average of 199 yards (55.1% completions) in two playoff games. He has just 11 total touchdowns to 17 INTS in those contests.January 27, 2016 at 10:40 am #28334
Super Bowl 50 MVP Betting Odds
January 26, 2016
By VI News
Super Bowl 50 is quickly approaching as bettors continue to handicap the upcoming matchup between the Panthers and Broncos.
Earlier this week, oddsmakers at Sportsbook opened odds on who will win the Most Valuable Player for the finale.
To no surprise, the top betting choices are quarterbacks Cam Netwon (5/8) and Peyton Manning (3/1). In the first 49 Super Bowls, the quarterback has captured the award 27 times and five of the last six MVPs in the Super Bowl were quarterbacks.
Two years ago, Seattle linebacker Malcom Smith was named the Most Valuable Player. Smith, an unlikely winner, was part of the Field (Any Other Player) bet and cashed at a 25/1 price (Bet $100 to win $2,500). Including Smith, he was the ninth defensive player named the MVP in the Super Bowl.
Oddsmakers are giving a little more respect to the defensive players in this year’s matchup. Carolina middle linebacker Luke Kuechly has odds listed at 14/1 while Denver outside linebacker Von Miller is right behind him with 18/1 odds.
Running backs have won the award seven times, the last instance coming in 1998 when Denver running back Terrell Davis was named the MVP. This year’s version of Davis for the Broncos is C.J. Anderson, who is listed as an 18/1 betting choice. Carolina RB Jonahtan Stewart has 20/1 odds.
Wide receivers have been named MVP six times, three of those winners coming in the last 10 years. The top betting choice for wide outs is Carolina’s Ted Ginn Jr. at 22/1 and he garners more attention due to his return abilities on special teams.
Listed below are all odds to win 2016 Super Bowl 50 MVP per Sportsbook.
Cam Newton (Panthers) 5/8 (Bet $100 to win $62.50)
Peyton Manning (Broncos) 3/1 (Bet $100 to win $300)
Luke Kuechly (Panthers) 14/1 (Bet $100 to win $1,400)
C.J. Anderson (Broncos) 18/1
Von Miller (Broncos) 18/1
Greg Olsen (Panthers) 20/1
Jonathan Stewart (Panthers) 20/1
Ted Ginn Jr (Panthers) 22/1
DeMarcus Ware (Broncos) 30/1
Demaryius Thomas (Broncos) 30/1
Emmanuel Sanders (Broncos) 30/1
Josh Norman (Panthers) 40/1
Aqib Talib (Broncos) 50/1
Brandon McManus (Broncos) 50/1
Corey Brown (Panthers) 50/1
Graham Gano (Panthers) 50/1
Ronnie Hillman (Broncos) 65/1
Chris Harris Jr. (Broncos) 75/1
Owen Daniels (Broncos) 75/1
Danny Trevathan (Broncos) 100/1
Derek Wolfe (Broncos) 100/1
Devin Funchess (Panthers) 100/1
Brandon Marshall (Broncos) 150/1
Cody Latimer (Broncos) 150/1
Jerricho Cotchery (Panthers) 150/1
Jordan Norwood (Broncos) 150/1
Kurt Coleman (Panthers) 150/1
Andre Caldwell (Broncos) 200/1
Cortland Finnegan (Panthers) 200/1
Mike Tolbert (Panthers) 200/1
Robert McClain (Panthers) 200/1
Shaq Thompson (Panthers) 200/1January 27, 2016 at 10:44 am #28335
NFL Super Bowl Betting Trends – Sunday – Feb, 7
Carolina vs Denver, 6:30 ET
Carolina: 7-1 ATS after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored
Denver: 80-53 OVER after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last gameJanuary 27, 2016 at 6:26 pm #28389
Super Bowl betting could be a nightmare decision for sportsbooks
By Jason Logan
Super Bowl 50 doesn’t kick off for another week and a half, and already sportsbooks are starting to get nervous.
After a dominating display in the NFC Championship, blowing out Arizona by 34 points, and handling Seattle with relative ease in the Divisional Round, the Carolina Panthers have made believers out of early football bettors garnering as much as 90 percent of the Super Bowl betting action at some sportsbooks.
The Panthers have moved from as low as 3-point favorites to as high as -6 against the Denver Broncos on February 7, with most markets opening Carolina -4 and dealing -5.5 as of Wednesday afternoon.
“We don’t mind a decision but not the decision to end all decisions,” Nick Bogdanovich, U.S. director of trading for William Hill sportsbooks in Nevada. “I always thought there would be Denver money, since I thought the number was a little high, but it looks like any Denver money is going to have to come from the professionals.”
Bogdanovich is referring to the growing Super Bowl pointspread around the sports betting industry, and sharp bettors buying back Denver as those extra points are tacked on. A few online markets have flirted with Broncos +6, in order to drum up some Denver money, and a couple Las Vegas properties have mulled over the move as well.
“It’s funny, because we has that conversation about 20 minutes ago,” Jeff Stoneback, sportsbook manager at the MGM Mirage in Las Vegas. “We have a feeling it could get up to six and we contemplated it but decided to lay off for now.”
In Stoneback’s 30 years behind the counter on the Vegas scene, he can’t recall having such a lopsided decision this early into Super Bowl betting. MGM opened Carolina -4 and took instant action from the sharps who pushed the line to -5, which was bet hard by the public and tacked on a half-point hook.
As for the moneyline, Stoneback was surprised by how little money was coming in on Denver to win straight up, with Super Bowl underdogs being a popular moneyline play. MGM is dealing Carolina -220/Denver +180, and some other markets have gone as high as Broncos +190.
“If you’re going to bet Denver, there’s no reason to bet right now,” he says. “See how long the line will go.”
At the Southpoint Las Vegas sportsbook, which caters to more of a local crowd than the tourists, Panthers and Over has been a popular parlay and teaser in the days since opening the Super Bowl odds. Veteran sportsbook director Bert Osborne has been busy juggling his other odds to offset that one-sided money.
“I could see us testing six and getting some quick buyback at six,” Osborne tells Covers. “We’re high right now at -5.5 (-110), and we’ve been there since (Tuesday) morning. I’m usually about a half point ahead of some of the other places, because of our local business. I’m moving the line based on my business, if it’s pushing it there.”
Osborne says his smarter action took Denver +5 and he believes they’re waiting for the six to show on the board before hitting the Broncos again. So far, at +5.5, there hasn’t been anything from wiseguys.
“They’re not going to dabble in the +5.5, they’re sitting on the sidelines waiting for that six,” he says. “They know some of the local places will test the water at six, and it will be quickly eaten up.”
It’s the same song coming from the online sportsbooks as the Super Bowl odds reach four days old. According to Peter Childs, supervisor of risk management for Sportsbook, they opened Carolina -4.5 at halftime of the NFC Championship Game and outside of some sharp money on Denver at +5, the public steamed this line all the way to Panthers -6.
“I would say of the first 500 bets we wrote, 400 of them were on the Panthers,” Childs. “While we do respect the sharp action that hit the +5 on the Broncos, the public is just overwhelmingly betting the Panthers and I really can’t blame them.”
Fellow offshore shop Bookmaker.eu, which is dealing a 5-point spread, has been overrun with Panthers plays, according to lines manager John Lester, who tells Covers that 83 percent of the current Super Bowl 50 ticket count is on the favorite while 69 percent of the handle rests on the Panthers.
Greg Sindall, of SportsInteraction.com, reports nearly identical betting patterns, with his linemakers moving Carolina from -4 to -5 after juggling the vig at 4.5, hoping to drum up Denver action. “Everybody keeps piling on Carolina so we moved out to -5,” Sindall. “It looks like bettors are thinking that Carolina’s offense will be too much for the Broncos defense to handle.”
So what happens if people keep piling on the Panthers – could the Super Bowl spread sit six, 6.5 or even get to a touchdown by February 7? It’s unlikely sportsbooks would open themselves up to that exposure, vulnerable to a middle (betting both sides and hitting in the middle of those numbers), and they do see Denver money coming from sharps and Broncos backers alike if six hits the board.
However, there’s a lot of time between now and kickoff on Super Sunday, and any sports bettor that’s been around the Big Game will tell you anything can happen when it comes to the betting frenzy that is Super Bowl. An estimated 95 percent of the total betting handle will come in the two days – Saturday and Sunday – before the game.
“I can’t see us getting much higher than -6, but we still have 10 more days before this game kicks so you never know,” admits Childs. “If there happens to be any kind of weather on Super Bowl Sunday, this thing could get to -7 because Manning can’t throw the ball if there’s any kind of wind or a heavy rain. So we’re definitely keep our eyes on the 10-day forecast.”
As for the Super Bowl total, the number fluctuates depending on the book being offered as low as 45 and as high as 46.5.
Public money has taken the Over, as will likely be the case when tourists roll into Nevada books and log into their online accounts in the 48 hours before game time. And with some books moving up to 45.5, 46 and 46.5, sharp action has shown up on the Under in a battle between two strong defenses: Broncos ranked No. 1 and the Panthers ranked No. 6 in total yards allowed.
The Over has cashed in three straight Super Bowls and four of the last five while the betting underdog has covered in 10 of the last 14 Super Bowls. Last year, the Patriots closed as 1-point favorites and beat Seattle 28-24, playing Over the 47.5-point total.January 28, 2016 at 3:08 pm #28515
Six mistakes Super Bowl bettors make
By Jason Logan
The bigger the game the bigger the action – and unfortunately, the bigger the bloopers. Whether you’re a seasoned sports bettor or wagering for the first time, the Super Bowl has a unique set of pitfalls to look out for. Covers’ Jason Logan points out these mistakes before it’s too late.
Betting the Big Game?
Of course you are. It’s the Super Bowl. What a stupid question.
But massive matchups like the Super Bowl breed stupidity, especially when it comes to sports bettors. It doesn’t matter if you’re a first-time gambler or a seasoned sharp: the Super Bowl can make even the most disciplined bettor lose their god damn mind.
There’s a little less than two weeks before the Denver Broncos and Carolina Panthers showdown in Santa Clara on February 7. That’s more than enough time to completely tank your Super Bowl bets. It’s also plenty of time to heed these warnings.
Here are six mistakes Super Bowl bettors can make:
You bet too early/too late
If you’ve been paying attention to the early line moves for Super Bowl 50, you’ve seen the Panthers go off at anything from -5.5 to -2.5, after kicking the snot out of the Cardinals in the NFC title game.
If you’re a Panthers backer and you didn’t get down on that small spread, you may have missed your chance. Maybe you jumped the gun and took Denver +3 and watched two free points pass you by.
First off, let those odds go, ‘cause man they’re gone. Second, breathe. Third, realize that there are two weeks of wagering to be had on this game and that 95 percent of the money doesn’t come in until the 48 hours before game time. That means movement is coming. Fourth, get an opinion and plan of attack. Know what you realistically want for a line and how much you want to pay for it.
Denver fans, you may want to grab the points on your beloved Broncos now. Books could see action on Denver and Peyton Manning’s storybook ending before it closes, so value could be shrinking as you read this. Panthers backers, you may want to wait out that movement and see if you can get this game back down to -3.5 or even a field goal before showtime.
Last year, the line jumped back and forth between the Patriots and Seahawks in the days before kickoff. That said, don’t let a solid number pass you by.
Waiting out a line move (I think that’s a Bob Seger song…) that may never come could have you scrambling on Super Sunday and playing an over-juiced number or grabbing a spread you’re not crazy about.
The best plan of attack for wagering on Super Bowl props is to start with the spread and total, and then work backwards. Figure out how the game will play out. If you have Carolina to cover, then who and what will get them there.
If you like the Under, make sure your prop plays coincide with those wagers. That means taking the Under in passing props, leaning toward the Over in rushing props and having a few more “No” than “Yes” bets.
The worst thing you can do is have props that go against each other in the Super Bowl.
If you think Manning finds the Fountain of Youth passes for 300-plus yards, then don’t load up on the Over in the Broncos’ rushing yard props.
Believe Cam Newton dominates on the ground? You may want to shy away from Ted Ginn’s Over on total receptions prop and jump on how many football’s Superman hands out to youngsters in the end zone.
Didn’t pay attention to prices
One of the worst rookie mistakes a new bettor can muff is not paying attention to the juice attached to each wager. And especially come Super Bowl time, when you’re not just limited to a side and total, bettors can easily overpay for props and alternative wagers.
Certain props can hold a hefty price tag, either set that way to draw action or adjusted after the betting market has had its say. Professional handicappers are always wary of high-priced moneyline favorites, setting a limit to just how much they’ll put down. Some pros won’t pay more than -150 for a bet and it may be a rule you integrate into your Super Bowl capping.
On top of some extremely juiced prop prices, books limit the amount you can wager on these alternative bets. So, throwing down $20 on a -170 prop bet is only going to net you like $12 in profit. And playing vig-heavy props can turn a winning record into a loss. Nothing stings like going 5-3 on your bets and still ending up in the red.
In a game as big as the Super Bowl, bettors can panic if things aren’t going according to plan by the time they start setting up the halftime show stage. That can often lead to people chasing their first-half prop losses and going against what they so intensely handicapped for the past two weeks.
Halftime lines hold value, if you have a strong opinion. Many times, when a game didn’t play to the oddsmakers’ expectations in the first two quarters – high total had low-scoring first half or favorite underperformed – things will correct themselves in the second half.
But, when faced with the shame of a Super Bowl loss, some bettors will go against their existing bets just to have some black ink on the board. If they took the Over, and the halftime score is 10-7, they pull the trigger on the second-half Under. If they laid the favorite, and the chalk is getting beat up through two frames, then side with the underdog.
As mentioned, these abnormalities often even out and bettors can quickly wipe out a winning bet – that was perfectly handicapped – with a horrific halftime wager made in sheer panic.
Too much media
Trust your instincts when it comes to the Super Bowl line. If you’ve watched the NFL intensely each week since the preseason and haven’t missed a minute of playoff action, you already have a firm grip on the two Super Bowl teams and how things should shake down.
If your knee-jerk reaction was “Denver +4 is easy money”, then it probably is. But for the next two weeks, the media is going to break down this game and put it back together 100 times. You will second guess your wager probably just as much.
Like a promoter hyping up a title fight, the Super Bowl will be sold as the matchup of all matchups. Both sides will present excellent reasons why they’ll win. The public consensus will flip flop like fish back and forth. Sharps will be on the Panthers one day and the Broncos the next. Stat heads will throw trends and numbers at you that go all the way to the invention of the forward pass.
And in the end, what was supposed to be a tightly-contested game with a near-FG spread is a 22-0 wash at halftime. So much for all the media hype.
Stick to your guns. First instincts are usually the right ones. Don’t over-soak your brain in two weeks’ worth of media mush. Pick and choose who you listen to, or get your bets down and tune out the Big Game buzz until kickoff like avoiding Star Wars spoilers.
You sucked all the fun out of it
If you’re a fan of the Panthers or Broncos – you’ve earned the right to be a little uptight for this game. I would be if my team was playing in the Super Bowl. But for the rest of us losers, who are left to just bet on the Big Game, don’t ruin what is the final football game that matters until Week 1.
Some guys think “Big Game” equals big bets. If you’ve been stashing your nickels away for a big-ass betting bonanza on Super Bowl Sunday, then have at it – but only if it’s within your means. Nothing takes the fun out of watching the Super Bowl like wondering how you’ll pay the rent after a disastrous interception in the end zone.
And if you’re watching the game with friends or even in a sports bar around strangers, keep your rage in check. There’s no need to start dropping f-bombs and getting your Super-Cam Underoos in a bunch because you didn’t nail that coin flip bet.
Sports betting is entertainment. And there’s no bigger show that the Super Bowl. Enjoy the game, win or lose.February 1, 2016 at 11:23 am #28859
50 Super Betting Angles
By VI News
Super Bowl L between the Carolina Panthers and Denver Broncos will be the 50th installment of the big game on Sunday Feb. 7, 2015 from Santa Clara, California.
Before you start your handicapping the matchup and prop bets, you might want to check out 50 angles this year’s Super Bowl.
1- Super Bowl 50 will be the first pro football finale that features two former #1 NFL draft picks squaring off.
2 – In the last 10 Super Bowls, the NFC has only been favored 2 times and they’ve gone 1-1 in those games with San Francisco losing and Green Bay winning, by just five points. Going back 20 years, the NFC is 4-2 SU but 1-3-2 ATS in the role as a favorite.
3- There have been three NFL players that have won a Super Bowl as a head coach and as a player – Mike Ditka, Tom Flores, Tony Dungy. Carolina head coach Ron Rivera would be the fourth since he was part of Chicago’s victory in 1985.
4 – Denver has been installed as an underdog four times this season and it’s gone 3-1 straight up and 4-0 against the spread. The lone loss came in Week 15 when it lost to Pittsburgh 34-27 but covered as a 7 ½-point underdog.
5 – The Broncos own a 2-5 record in the Super Bowl and holds the record for the most setbacks in the finale with five.
6 – Denver has registered six non-offensive touchdowns this season, four of them coming via interceptions. Carolina has accounted for six “pick-six” scores from its defense and has seven total non-offensive scores.
7 – Prior to this matchup, there have been seven Super Bowls since 2001 that featured head coaches meeting in the finale with no SB experience. The AFC has gone 5-2 during this span.
8 – The Broncos have gone 8-2 in their last 10 games when playing with a week of rest and that includes two wins this season – Week 8 vs. Green Bay (29-10) and the Divisional Playoffs against Pittsburgh (23-17). The ‘under’ has produced a 7-3 mark in these games.
9 – In 18 games, the Panthers have held nine of their opponents to 17 points or less.
10 – Denver has won 10 straight road games played in California, divided equally against the Raiders and Chargers. More importantly, the Broncos have covered all 10 while the ‘under’ has gone 7-3.
11- The Broncos have seen the ‘under’ go 11-6-1 this season, which includes a perfect 2-0 mark in the playoffs.
12 – This will be the 12th Super Bowl played in California and the first since 2003. Favorites have gone 7-4 both SU and ATS in these games and the ‘over’ is 9-1.
13 – Carolina has gone 13-6-1 versus the AFC since 2011 with Cam Newton under center. They only faced the Broncos once and Denver captured a 36-14 victory in the 2012 regular season.
14- Cam Newton has averaged 8.5 carries per game this season, with 14 rushes being the most this season which came in Week 1 at Jacksonville.
15 – Prop bettors should note that Carolina QB Cam Newton has been held under 21 completions in 15 of his 18 games this season.
16 – The Carolina offense has been lights out this season but the defense has been just as good. The Panthers have surrendered 16.3 PPG in their last three games, and 19.3 PPG overall.
17 – Broncos QB Peyton Manning has tossed 17 interceptions this season, the most in his four years with Denver. Carolina led the league with 24 picks.
18 – Denver’s defense was one of the most consistent units this season, both home away. Denver surrendered 18.2 points per game at home and 18.5 PPG on the road.
19 – Since 2008, this will be just the 19th time that Peyton Manning has been installed as an underdog in a game. In the first 18 games, he’s 9-9 SU and 11-7 ATS.
20 – Bettors have seen underdogs cover the point-spread in 20 of the 49 Super Bowls and 13 of those clubs pulled off outright victories.
21 – Super Bowl teams that fail to score 21 points in the Super Bowl are 1-22 SU and 3-19-1 ATS. The lone winner that failed to eclipse the 21-point plateau was the N.Y. Giants, who recently beat the Patriots 17-14 in SBXLII.
22 – Since 2005, Peyton Manning has accounted for 22 rushes in the postseason and he’s only scored one touchdown.
23 – In the first 49 Super Bowls, 23 of them have been decided by 14 points or more.
24 – When Cam Newton scores a rushing touchdown, the Panthers have scored at least 24 points in eight of their nine games this season.
25 – In the first 25 Super Bowls, the favorites have gone 17-8 against the spread and the ‘under’ went 13-11 in those games. In the last 24, the underdogs have produced a 12-9-2 ATS mark with last year’s result not counting since the line was pick ‘em.
26 – Denver QB Peyton Manning has played in 26 postseason games and owns a 13-13 record.
27a – Super Bowl teams that have scored at least 27 points are 26-2 SU and 23-4-1 ATS. The two teams that failed to win were Carolina (29) in SBXXXVIII and San Francisco (31) in SBXLVII.
27b – Quarterbacks have captured the Super Bowl Most Valuable Player award 27 times, which includes five of the last six years. Cam Newton (5/8) and Peyton Manning (3/1) are the top two betting choices for this year’s popular prop wager.
28 – How much of a drop-off has Denver’s offense had this season? In 2014, the team averaged 28.9 PPG comparted to 22.1 this season. To make you really notice Peyton’s regression, he averaged 30.4 PPG in his debut season in Denver and an eye-opening 36.4 PPG during the 2013 Super Bowl run.
29 – The Broncos have lost by an average margin of 29.6 points per game in their five Super Bowl setbacks, the largest deficit coming by 45 points to San Francisco in Super Bowl XXIV.
30 – The Panthers were installed as road favorites seven times this season and they went 6-1 SU and 4-3 ATS while averaging 30 PPG.
31 – The highest point total scored by a losing team in a Super Bowl was 31, which happened twice. San Francisco dropped a 34-31 decision to Baltimore in SBXLVII (2013) and Dallas came up short to Pittsburgh 35-31 in SBXIII (1979).
32 – Carolina averaged 32.2 PPG this season, ranked first in the league. Was this surprising? It was certainly out of the ordinary considering the Panthers averaged 21.3 PPG in 2014 and 22.3 PPG two years ago.
33 – The Panthers led the league with an average of 33.6 rushing attempts per game and they also led the NFL with rushing first downs and rushing touchdowns.
34 – The Steelers dropped 34 points on the Broncos in Week 15, which was the most allowed by Denver this season. In that game, Pittsburgh scored 21 in the second-half and only managed to score 16 in the rematch game in the Divisional Playoff round.
35 – The most points ever scored in a quarter of a Super Bowl was 35 by the Redskins in their 42-10 victory over the Broncos in SBXXII.
36 – Since the NFC South was created in 2002, the division has sent three teams to the Super Bowl and they’ve averaged 36 PPG in the finale. They’ve gone 2-1, the lone loser being Carolina in SBXXXVIII to the Patriots, 32-29.
37 – Denver has kicked 37 field goals this season, seven of those 3-pointers coming in the postseason. Carolina has posted 33 field goals in 18 games.
38 – The last Super Bowl winner to score 38 points was in 1985 when San Francisco defeated Miami 38-16 in SBXIX, which was coincidentally the last finale that took place from Northern California (Stanford Stadium).
39 – Carolina racked up a league-high 39 takeaways (24 interceptions, 15 fumbles) this season and also led the league with a plus-20 turnover margin. Denver was minus-4 (31-27) in turnovers on the season.
40 – Cam Newton has attempted 40 or more passes in two games this season. The Panthers won those games, but both victories came on the road and by three points against the Saints and Giants.
41 – Denver’s passing offense had 41 plays this season for 20-plus yards and coincidentally the defense surrendered 41 plays of the same yardage to opponents. Carolina’s offense (53) and defense (53) also put up identical numbers, but they were a tad higher.
42 – Carolina had a net punting average of 42.7 yards per game this season, which was ranked fifth in the NFL. Just barely ahead of them was Denver, who had an average of 43.4 YPG. Carolina allowed two return touchdowns while the Broncos allowed one.
43 – The Panthers converted 43% of their third down conversions, which was ranked fifth in the NFL. Meanwhile, Denver was ranked 27th in the league with a 34% conversion rate.
44 – Carolina racked up 44 sacks in the regular season and it added to that number in the postseason with an additional eight in two games. Denver led the league with 59 sacks, seven of them coming in the playoffs.
45 – There have only been two Super Bowl totals listed at 45 and the ‘over/under’ went 1-1 in those games.
46 – Peyton Manning owns a 46-21 all-time record against NFC opponents, which includes a 13-4 record the last four seasons with Denver.
47 – The longest run by the Panthers this season was 47 yards, which came by quarterback Cam Newton. The Broncos have two players – Ronnie Hillman (72) and C.J. Anderson (48) – that have topped that number.
48 – There has only been one Super Bowl where the combined score has landed exactly on 48 points. This occurred in SBXLIV when the Saints defeated the Colts 31-17 in 2010.
49 – Since QB Peyton Manning joined the Denver Broncos, the franchise has captured 49 victories.
50 – Cam Newton has accounted for 50 total touchdowns this season, which is the same amount of scores he accumulated when he won the Heisman Trophy award at Auburn.
***Betting Angles provided by Chris David, Kevin Rogers and Marc LawrenceFebruary 3, 2016 at 1:04 pm #29136
Fifty betting notes you need to know before Super Bowl 50
By Joe Fortenbaugh
Super Bowl 50 will feature a plethora of first-time occurrences, from the first Super Bowl matchup between quarterbacks who were drafted first overall (Peyton Manning in 1998 vs. Cam Newton in 2011), to the first time the No. 1 overall pick from a draft (Cam Newton, 2011) will square-off against the No. 2 overall selection from the same draft (Von Miller, 2011) in professional football’s ultimate encounter.
But that’s just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to what Covers has in store for you, as the following 50 need-to-know sports betting notes for Super Bowl 50 should put you firmly on the right track toward beating your bookie one final time this football season.
Enjoy, best of luck and enjoy the game.
*All prop bets courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook unless otherwise noted.
1. Super Bowl 50 will be played in Santa Clara, California at the open-air venue known as Levi’s Stadium, which features a natural playing surface comprised of Tifway II Bermuda grass and Perennial Ryegrass.
In outdoor games played on a natural grass surface this season, the Carolina Panthers went 13-0 SU and 11-2 ATS (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS on the road), while the Denver Broncos went 13-3 SU and 8-7-1 ATS (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS on the road).
2. As it pertains to the Super Bowl coin toss, it is imperative to make one fact abundantly clear: no amount of research, trends or statistical data will give you an edge when it comes to selecting the winning result. This is an independent event with only two possible outcomes, so your chances of winning are exactly 50 percent. But that doesn’t mean we can’t have some fun…
3. In the 49 previous Super Bowls, the coin toss has landed on “Heads” 24 times and “Tails” 25 times. Five of the last seven coin tosses have come up “Heads,” but “Tails” has been the outcome in each of the last two Super Bowls.
In addition, the NFC has won a staggering 16 of the last 18 Super Bowl coin tosses. Finally, of the 49 Super Bowl coin toss winners, 24 have gone on to win the game, with four of the last six coin toss winners eventually emerging as Super Bowl champions.
4. Peyton Manning-led Super Bowl teams are 0-3 when it comes to the coin toss.
5. The team to record the first score in the Super Bowl has gone on to win 33 times (33-16, 67.3%), which includes each of the last five Super Bowls. PROP: Will the team that scores first win the game: YES -180, NO +160.
6. Weather update: Sunday’s forecast for kickoff in Santa Clara is currently calling for temperatures with a high of 73 degrees and a low of 50 degrees. There is currently a zero percent chance of precipitation with the humidity expected to hover around 61 percent and winds out of the north-northwest at 8 miles per hour.
7. Of the 50 quarterbacks to start the last 25 Super Bowls, not one recorded a lower regular season passer rating than the 67.9 Peyton Manning posted in 2015.
In addition, only one of the last 25 Super Bowls (Patriots vs. Giants in Super Bowl XLII) featured a greater disparity in regular season passer ratings between the two starting quarterbacks than Sunday’s Super Bowl 50 (Newton: 99.4, Manning: 67.9).
8. Super Bowl 50 will pit the offense that made the most trips inside the red zone during the regular season (Carolina, 63) against the defense that allowed the fewest trips inside the red zone during the regular season (Denver, 37).
The good news for the Panthers is that if they can make it inside the Broncos’ 20-yard line, there’s a reasonable chance that Carolina will turn those opportunities into touchdowns, as Denver’s opponents found the end zone 59.5 percent of the time this season after entering the red zone (13th-most in NFL).
9. The Carolina Panthers are 9-4 ATS over their last 13 playoff games, while the Denver Broncos are 2-5-1 ATS over their last eight postseason contests.
10. With eight years and 123 games of NFL experience under his belt, Clete Blakeman was named as the head official for Super Bowl 50 last week. Blakeman served as a field judge from 2008-2009 before earning a promotion to head official in 2010, a role he currently serves to this day.
In games officiated by Blakeman, the Denver Broncos are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS, the most recent of which was a 47-14 throttling of the Oakland Raiders back in 2014. On the flip side, the Carolina Panthers are 2-2 SU and 2-2 ATS in games officiated by Blakeman, the most recent of which was a 24-17 win and cover over Houston on September 20.
11. In 2015, home teams went 8-8 SU in games officiated by Blakeman, while favorites went 8-7-1 ATS. As for the total, Blakeman’s crew was on the field for eight Overs and eight Unders in 16 games this season. Of those 16 aforementioned matchups, an average of 46.1 points per game was scored, with nine of those 16 contests featuring more than 45 total points.
12. NFL officiating crews threw an average of 13.7 penalty flags per game in 2015, with Blakeman’s crew throwing an average of 14.0 penalty flags per contest.
13. Teams that have ranked first in total defense during the regular season are 9-2 SU when playing in the Super Bowl. However, the Seattle Seahawks ranked first in total defense last season and lost to the New England Patriots in Super Bowl XLIX. The Denver Broncos ranked first in the NFL in total defense this past season, surrendering an average of just 283.1 total yards per game.
14. Of the 49 Super Bowls played prior to Sunday’s showdown in Santa Clara, not one has gone into overtime. The price on whether or not Super Bowl 50 will go into overtime is currently listed at YES +550, NO -800.
15. PROP: Total first half points scored by the Carolina Panthers: 13.0 (Over: Even, Under: -120). Through 18 showdowns this season, the Panthers are averaging 17.8 points per game during the first half, with a plus-10 turnover differential.
In addition, the Panthers scored 13 or more points during the first half in 12 of 18 games this season, which includes 10 of the last 11 contests. The Broncos surrendered 13 or more points during the first half in six of 18 games this season. Through their last seven matchups, the Broncos have surrendered an average of just 7.8 points per game during the first half.
16. The underdog is a highly profitable 14-5-1 ATS over the last 20 Super Bowls. That’s good news for Denver fans, as the Broncos opened the week as 6-point underdogs for Super Bowl 50.
17. Sunday will mark Cam Newton’s first Super Bowl appearance, while Peyton Manning will be under center for his fourth Super Bowl. Quarterbacks making their Super Bowl debut have won four consecutive matchups over signal-callers with previous Super Bowl experience.
Manning won in his Super Bowl debut back in 2007 against Rex Grossman and the Chicago Bears, but lost to Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints (2010) and Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks (2014), both of whom were making their Super Bowl debuts.
18. The Over (currently listed at 45) is 4-0 in Carolina’s last four playoff games, while the Under is 5-1 in Denver’s last six postseason contests. In addition, the Over is 20-7-1 in Carolina’s last 28 games against teams with a winning record, while the Under is 5-2 in Denver’s last seven matchups against opponents with a winning record.
19. PROP: Total made third-down conversions by the Carolina Panthers (conversion by penalty does NOT count): 5.5 (Over: -120, Under: Even). Carolina converted an average of 5.6 third downs per game in 18 contests this season, which includes six or more third down conversions in five of the team’s last six outings. Conversely, the Broncos permitted an average of 4.6 third down conversions through 18 games this season, with opponents converting five or fewer third downs in seven of the club’s last 10 contests.
20. Jacksonville Jaguars signal-caller Blake Bortles was the only NFL quarterback to throw more interceptions (18) during the 2015 regular season than Peyton Manning (17), despite the fact that Manning appeared in just 10 games. However, Manning has yet to throw an interception through 69 playoff passing attempts, which is notable because the Denver quarterback has never made it through a postseason that features more than one game without throwing at least one interception. PROP: Will Peyton Manning throw an interception: YES -220, NO: +190.
21. Through 18 total games, the Denver Broncos are averaging 5.5 punts per contest while the Carolina Panthers are averaging 4.3 punts per outing. Take note that the Broncos have punted the ball five or more times in four of the team’s last five outings, while the Panthers have punted the ball three or fewer times in three of the club’s last four matchups. The current Over/Under for total punts in Super Bowl 50 is 10.0 (-110 both ways).
22. The Carolina Panthers defeated the Arizona Cardinals by 34 points in the NFC Championship game on January 24 and in the process became just the sixth team since the merger to win a conference championship game by 30 or more points. Of the previous five clubs to win a conference title game by 30 or more points, only two went on to hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy (1991 Washington Redskins and 2014 New England Patriots).
23. The Denver defense led the NFL in sacks during the regular season, with 52 (3.25 per game) and have since added seven more to that total through two playoff games. Cam Newton was sacked a total of 33 times during the regular season (12th-most in NFL) and was brought down while attempting a pass twice more during the postseason. In addition, Newton was sacked three or more times in a game just four times in 18 contests this season. PROP: Total number of quarterback sacks recorded by the Denver defense: 2.5 (Over: +150, Under: -170).
24. PROP: Will there be a safety scored in Super Bowl 50: YES +550, NO -800. Nine safeties have been scored in the NFL’s previous 49 Super Bowls. However, four safeties have been scored since 2009, with a safety occurring in each Super Bowl from 2013-2015 before that streak was snapped last February.
25. For those of you predicting a Carolina blowout that rivals what the Seahawks did to Manning’s Broncos two years ago, you may be interested in wagering on an alternative pointspread. At the moment, you can play Carolina -14.5 at +350, Carolina -17.5 at +475 and Carolina -21.5 at +600.
However, be advised that only four of Carolina’s 17 wins this season came by more than 21 points, with nine of those 17 victories coming by 11 or more points. Take note that Denver lost just one game by more than seven points this season (29-13 vs. Kansas City in Week 10).
26. Of the 13 successful field goal attempts that occurred over the last five Super Bowls, none came from a distance of greater than 38 yards. You have to go back to February of 2010 to find an instance of a successful Super Bowl field goal attempt of greater than 40 yards, when Saints kicker Garrett Hartley connected from 47, 46 and 44 yards in New Orleans’ 31-17 win over Indianapolis.
PROP: Longest made field goal in Super Bowl 50: 45.5 yards (-110 both ways). Carolina kicker Graham Gano went 15/20 from outside of 40 yards in 2015 while Denver kicker Brandon McManus went 10/15 from 40 yards or longer during the regular season.
27. PROP: Total field goals made by both teams: 3.5 (Over: +105, Under: -125): The last five Super Bowls have featured an average of just 2.6 made field goals per game. Denver kicker Brandon McManus is averaging 2.05 field goals made per game through 18 contests this season, while Carolina kicker Graham Gano is averaging 1.83 field goals made per game through 18 outings this season.
The Broncos surrendered an average of just 1.6 made field goals per game during the 2015 regular season, while the Panthers permitted an average of only 1.3 made field goals per game this year.
28. The Denver Broncos allowed an average of just 3.3 yards per rushing attempt during the 2015 regular season (first in NFL), but Sunday’s matchup with Cam Newton will provide a unique challenge for a variety of reasons. For starters, the Denver defense faced just 21 designed quarterback rushing attempts through 18 total contests, but 14 of those were kneel-downs and two were mishandled snaps or handoffs.
Conversely, Newton recorded 124 designed rushing attempts through 18 games this season, good for an average of 6.8 designed rushing attempts per matchup. So you can’t help but ask yourself how Wade Phillips’ defense will react to something it hasn’t faced all season.
29. Speaking of Newton’s ability to create positive yardage with his legs, the Carolina quarterback notched 28 scrambles this season, which resulted in a total of 211 rushing yards (7.5 yds/scramble) and two touchdowns.
Defending the scramble has been a weak spot for the otherwise stalwart Denver defense, as only three NFL teams permitted more yards per scramble this past season than the Broncos. Of the 22 quarterback scrambles the Broncos were tasked with defending in 2015, 12 went for 10 or more yards.
30. Cam Newton rushing props include: Cam Newton’s first rushing attempt: 6.5 yards (Over: Even, Under: -120), Total rushing yards by Cam Newton: 37.5 (-110 both ways), Longest rush by Cam Newton: 12.5 yards (-110 both ways).
31. PROP: Which team will accrue more penalty yardage: Denver (-145) vs. Carolina (+125). During the 2015 regular season, the Broncos ranked eighth in the NFL in penalty yardage (1,063 yards) while the Panthers ranked 19th (887 yards). However, Denver has notched 51 or fewer penalty yards in seven of its last eight matchups, while Carolina has not recorded more than 45 penalty yards in any of its last four showdowns.
32. 2015 marked just the seventh time in NFL history that a team (Carolina) won exactly 15 games during the regular season. Of the previous six franchises to win exactly 15 games during the regular season, only the 1984 San Francisco 49ers and 1985 Chicago Bears went on to win the Super Bowl.
33. The Carolina Panthers and Denver Broncos tied for 10th in the National Football League during the 2015 regular season in big-play touchdowns (touchdowns of 20 or more yards) with 11. Only three playoff teams recorded a higher total than the Panthers and Broncos this season (Seattle with 19, Arizona with 15, Green Bay with 13).
34. Will Super Bowl 50 score at least the fourth-highest Nielsen Household Television Rating in Super Bowl history? That’s what you have to ask yourself if you want to beat the following prop currently being offered at Sportsbook.ag: Over/Under Nielsen Household Television Rating for Super Bowl L: 48.5 (Over: -115, Under: -125).
Of the previous 49 Super Bowls, only three (Seattle vs. New England in 2015 with a 49.7, Washington vs. Miami in 1983 with a 48.6 and San Francisco vs. Cincinnati in 1982 with a 49.1) went over the 48.5 total currently on the board. Here’s a breakdown of the Nielsen Ratings for the last five Super Bowls:
Seattle vs. New England in 2015: 49.7
Seattle vs. Denver in 2014: 46.4
Baltimore vs. San Francisco in 2013: 47.1
New York Giants vs. New England in 2012: 47.1
Green Bay Packers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers in 2011: 46.0
35. Fun fact: This Sunday will mark Denver’s eighth trip to the Super Bowl since the franchise joined the American Football League in 1970. Did you know that seven of those eight Super Bowls will have featured a Broncos starting quarterback who was originally drafted by the Indianapolis Colts (John Elway: 5, Peyton Manning: 2)?
36. Each of the last five Super Bowls has featured a first score that was not a field goal (three touchdowns, two safeties). However, in the five years prior to that stretch, the first score of the Super Bowl was a field goal four times. PROP: First score of the game will be: Touchdown (-150), Any other score (+130).
37. When it comes to the all-important turnover battle, the regular season edge definitely resided with the Carolina Panthers, who finished the season plus-20 in turnover differential (first in NFL), while the Denver Broncos ranked 19th in the league in turnover differential (-4). Of the 12 teams that qualified for the postseason, no club recorded a worse turnover differential during the 2015 regular season than the Denver Broncos.
38. During the Super Bowl’s 49-year history, only six games (12.2%) have been decided by exactly three points. However, five of those matchups have taken place since 2002 when Tom Brady and the New England Patriots defeated Kurt Warner and the St. Louis Rams 20-17 in Super Bowl XXXVI. PROP: Will the Super Bowl be decided by exactly three points: YES +375, NO -450.
39. Coming from someone who lives in the city of San Francisco, I can tell you without a shadow of a doubt that it infuriates Bay Area residents to no end that this is being considered a “San Francisco Super Bowl,” even though the actual game is taking place an hour south in the city of Santa Clara.
PROP (courtesy of Bovada.LV): How many times will the Golden Gate Bridge be shown during the broadcast: 0.5 (Over: -300, Under: +200). A steep price to pay, but I personally guarantee that the “Over” cashes in this situation, if only to piss off the fine people of this great city one more time.
40. Including the 2015 postseason, the Carolina Panthers have rushed for 100 or more yards in 31 consecutive contests, which is the third-longest streak since the 1970 merger. Through 18 games this season, the Denver defense has permitted an opponent to run for 100 or more yards just seven times.
41. PROP: Will the Denver Broncos score in all four quarters (Overtime does NOT count): YES +300, NO -360. The Broncos scored in all four quarters in just five of 18 total games this season, while the Carolina Panthers allowed the opposition to score in all four quarters just four times in 18 matchups in 2015.
42. The Super Bowl Most Valuable Player Award has been given to a quarterback 27 times (55.1%), an offensive player 39 times (79.6%), a defensive player nine times (18.4%) and a kick returner/punt returner one time (2%). Your top-five favorites to win the Super Bowl 50 MVP Award are:
Cam Newton: 5/7
Peyton Manning: 7/2
Jonathan Stewart: 15/1
Greg Olsen: 18/1
C.J. Anderson: 20/1
43. PROP: Total solo and assisted tackles by Von Miller (Sacks do NOT count): 3.0 (-110 both ways). Eliminate Miller’s sack total and the Denver pass rusher is averaging just 1.6 tackles per game this season, with all but one of 18 contests resulting in three or fewer tackles.
44. Key to the game: Third down conversions. The Carolina Panthers ranked seventh in the NFL in third down conversions during the regular season at 42.4 percent, while the Denver Broncos ranked 25th at 35.3 percent. Defensively, the Panthers ranked 13th in the NFL at 37.9 percent, while the Broncos ranked seventh at 35.2 percent.
45. If the current spread of Carolina -6 holds until kickoff, Super Bowl 50 will mark the eighth consecutive year in which professional football’s championship showdown featured a closing line of -7 or less. In addition, take note that 13 of the last 14 Super Bowls have featured a pointspread of -7 or less.
46. Lady Gaga will sing the National Anthem for Super Bowl 50, with the Over/Under set at 2 minutes and 20 seconds. While there’s currently no information available as to how long the six-time Grammy Award winner will take to perform the Anthem, history has shown us that credible intelligence regarding the performer’s rehearsal will leak sometime prior to kickoff. As of now, here’s a rundown of the last 10 Super Bowl National Anthem performances, which saw the “Under” cash six times:
Super Bowl 40: Aaron Neville & Aretha Franklin at 2:08
Super Bowl 41: Billy Joel at 1:30
Super Bowl 42: Jordin Sparks at 1:54
Super Bowl 43: Jennifer Hudson at 2:10
Super Bowl 44: Carrie Underwood at 1:47
Super Bowl 45: Christina Aguilera at 1:54
Super Bowl 46: Kelly Clarkson at 1:34
Super Bowl 47: Alicia Keys at 2:35
Super Bowl 48: Renee Fleming at 1:54
Super Bowl 49: Idina Menzel at 2:04
47. Carolina Panthers running back Jonathan Stewart averaged 18.6 rushing attempts and 78.5 rushing yards per game through 15 total outings in 2015, which equates to a total of 4.2 yards per rushing attempt. On the flip side, Denver’s defense surrendered an average of just 3.3 rushing yards per attempt this past season, which ranked first in the NFL. PROP: Total rushing yards by Jonathan Stewart: 66.5 (-110 both ways).
48. Only one team in Super Bowl history has scored more than 14 points during the first quarter, which took place in 2014 when the Seattle Seahawks outscored the Denver Broncos 16-0 during the first quarter of what turned out to be a 43-8 annihilation in Super Bowl XLVIII.
49. PROP: Total solo and assisted tackles by Luke Kuechly (Sacks do NOT count): 8.5 (-110 both ways). The three-time Pro Bowler averaged 9.1 tackles per game this season and has notched eight or more tackles in five straight contests and nine or more tackles in three of his last five outings. In addition, Kuechly is currently listed at 25/1 to win the Super Bowl 50 Most Valuable Player Award.
50. Through 49 Super Bowls, no team has ever been held scoreless and no field goal kicker has ever converted an attempt from 55 yards or longer.February 3, 2016 at 1:10 pm #29138
NFL Super Bowl Betting Trends – Sunday – Feb, 7
Carolina vs Denver, 6:30 ET
Carolina: 7-1 ATS after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored
Carolina: 13-5 ATS in all lined games
Carolina: 11-2 ATS in games played on a grass field
Denver: 50-62 ATS after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games
Denver: 20-24 ATS off a upset win as an underdog
Denver: 9-13 ATS after gaining 4 or less yards/play in their previous game
Carolina: 8-1 OVER off a home win
Carolina: 7-0 OVER after a win by 10 or more points
Carolina: 7-0 OVER after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better
Denver: 60-39 OVER in non-conference games
Denver: 80-53 OVER after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game
Denver: 182-145 OVER in games played on a grass fieldFebruary 3, 2016 at 1:37 pm #29140
Game: Carolina Panthers (101) vs. Denver Broncos (102)
Time: Sunday 02/07 6:30 PM Eastern
Pick: Total Field Goals UNDER 3.5 (-120)
In 2015, the average number of field goals per game was 3.26. Both of these teams averaged 1.88 field goals made per game. So this total is about right based on those numbers. But, this is not just any game. This is the big game and the Super Bowl is a different animal. Teams are generally less conservative overall in the big game when all is said and done. Its all or nothing. The coaches do not want to leave anything on the field. If a team is ahead, they dont want to give their opponent any chance of coming back. If a team is behind, they are not playing to keep it close they are playing to win the game. So, there are fewer field goals in the Super Bowl than in your average NFL game. Through the first 49 Super Bowls, there have only been 125 made field goals which comes to an average of 2.55 per game. In only 12 of the 49 games have more than three field goals been made! That comes to just 24.5% and fair odds on that are -308. Yet, we get -120 odds here. This bet should come through about 75% of the time. Take the UNDER on this prop.
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