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CBB • Friday Service Plays • 2/19/16

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    NEWSLETTER College Basketball Prediction From Doc’s Sports

    Take #877 Richmond (+10) over VCU (7 p.m., Friday, Feb. 19)
    The Rams are starting to be exposed in recent weeks and thus we will gladly take the points in this inner city affair. Richmond gave away the game in their first meeting and they will enter this game with revenge on their minds. The Spiders beat the Rams in both regular-season games last year and they have just as much talent as do the Rams.


    College Basketball

    Northern Illinois won its last two games after a 5-game skid; Huskies are 2-9 in last 11 games with Ball State, sweeping Cardinals 75-63/71-67 in LY’s games, after having lost nine in row. MAC home favorites of 6 or less points are 23-14 vs spread. Ball State won four of last five games, but lost three of last four at home- they lead division by game over three teams. Huskies lost last four road games, can tie Cards for first here.

    Akron won eight of last nine games, losing by point at NIU; Zips won nine of last 12 games with Kent State, beating Flashes 53-51 in MAC tourney LY- they lost last two visits here by total of five points. Kent lost four of last six games after a 15-5 start; they won five of last six at home, losing to Toledo. Akron is 4-3 on MAC road, also losing by 11-14 at CMU/Toledo. MAC home favorites of 6 or less points are 23-14.

    Columbia won 55-54 at Harvard Jan 30, after trailing early 29-9; Lions are 2-12 in last 14 series games, losing in OT twice in last four series tilts in this gym. Columbia is 12-2 vs teams outside the top 200, with both losses in November. Harvard lost six of last seven ganes; they’re 0-3 on Ivy road, losing by 13-21-10 points- they’re worst FT shooting team in America. Ivy League home favorites of 6+ points are 4-5 vs spread.

    Brown lost six of last eight games, but one of wins was 89-83 at home vs Penn Jan 30, when Bruins hit 13-24 on arc. Brown won last five series games, winning 76-67/71-55 in last two visits here. Quakers won three of last four games after a 6-11 start, winning last two at home. Brown is 0-3 on ivy road, losing by 9-6-7 points. Ivy League home favorites of 5 or less points are 4-3 against the spread.

    Yale leads Princeton by game with six to play; there is no tournament in Ivy League, so Yale win here goes long way to clinching first league title in 57 years. Yale is 6-1 in last seven vs Princeton, winning two of last three here. Princeton lost 79-75 at Yale Jan 30, its only loss in last nine games. Bulldogs made 11-19 on arc that night. Ivy League home teams are 6-5 vs spread in games where spread was 4 or less points.

    Dartmouth lost five of last six games, one of which was 77-73 home loss to Cornell Jan 30; Big Green blew 12-point lead with 10:14 to play, for Cornell’s 7th win in last ten series games. Home side won six of last eight series games; Big Green won 56-45 here LY, its first win in Ithaca in at least 12 years. Ivy League home favorites of 5 or less points are 4-3 vs spread. Cornell lost its last four games overall, allowing 86.5 ppg.

    VCU beat Richmond 94-89 in OT Jan 16, its 13th win in last 17 series games in this intense rivalry; Rams trailed by 4 with 1:59 left– Spiders got a technical for having six guys on floor, game wound up in OT. VCU won 14 of its last 16 games. Richmond won by 14 here LY; they lost at Davidson Tuesday even though Wildcats’ best player didn’t play. A-14 home favorites of 9+ points are 16-13 vs spread.

    Valparaiso won 84-67 at Oakland Jan 8, first win for visitor in five series games; Grizzlies lost by 3-6 in two visits here. Valpo is 12-2 in Horizon but lost last home game; their 43.3 eFG% defense is #5 in country, but they’re not as good as usual on offense. Oakland won eight of last nine games, scoring 85+ points in seven of eight wins; they’re undefeated on Horizon road (7-0). Horizon home favorites of 8+ points are 11-7.

    Detroit won five of last six games after starting season 9-11; Titans ran out to 28-9 lead, pounded Ill-Chicago 87-69 at home Jan 8, its 7th win in last eight series games. Titans won last three visits to Windy City, by 12-6-11 points. UIC is 3-2 in last five games after starting season 2-18; they won three of their last four home games. Horizon home underdogs of 8 or less points are 7-11 against the spread.

    Siena’s current 7-2 run started with 63-52 home win over Rider Jan 21, when they held Broncs to 2-20 on arc. Saints won four of last five series games, but lost three of last four visits here. Siena won three of last four road games but did lose at Marist. Rider won five of last six home tilts, losing by point to Monmouth last week. MAAC home teams are 12-10 in games where spread was 2 or less points.

    Monmouth made 13-22 on arc in 110-102 win at Iona Jan 15, there was almost a fracas in the handshake line after the game. Gaels are 4-2 in this series, losing 92-89 here LY, routing Hawks 95-77 in MAAC tourney. Iona won five of last six games, winning last three on road, by 8-18-14. Monmouth won its last eight games, in 7-0 at home in MAAC games. MAAC single digit home faves are 16-18 vs spread- 10pm start is odd. .

    Denver beat Oral Roberts 78-75 at home Jan 6, despite Titans making 12 of 19 behind arc; home side won all three series games- Titans lost 60-57 here LY. Last four Denver games were all decided by 4 or less points; they’re 2-4 on Summit road, winning at WIU/Omaha. ORU won its last two games after a 3-12 drought; they’re 3-4 at home in conference play. Summit League home favorites of 5+ points are 9-17 vs spread.


    StatFox Super Situations™ – FoxSheets

    Play Under – Road teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points playing with 5 or 6 days rest, a bad team, winning 20% to 40% of their games on the season
    41-15 over the last 5 seasons. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units )
    11-6 this year. ( 64.7% | 4.4 units )

    Play On – An underdog vs. the money line (BROWN) after going over the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games, a bad team (20% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record
    161-203 since 1997. ( 44.2% | 85.3 units )
    9-11 this year. ( 45.0% | 3.4 units )

    Play Under – All teams where the first half total is 65.5 to 70.5 off a road win, on Friday nights
    46-18 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
    8-5 this year. ( 61.5% | 2.5 units )


    Friday’s Tip Sheet
    By Brian Edwards

    **Richmond at Virginia Commonwealth**

    — VCU (19-7 straight up, 15-6 ATS) won its first nine games in Atlantic-10 play before dropping back-to-back games. Since then, however, the Rams have produced a pair of home wins over Saint Louis (85-52) and Rhode Island (83-67). They took it to URI on Tuesday night as 9.5-point home favorites. Mo Alie-Cox led the way with 21 points on 10-of-12 shooting from the field. Melvin Johnson added 19 points and four assists, knocking down 4-of-9 from beyond the 3-point arc. Korey Billbury finished with 14 points and six rebounds.

    — The Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas opened VCU as a 9.5-point home favorite vs. Richmond late Thursday afternoon.

    — VCU has won 13 of its 15 home games, posting a 7-3 spread record in the process.

    — VCU is No. 52 in the RPI Rankings, producing a 2-3 record against the Top 50 and a 4-6 mark versus the Top 100. The Rams have quality wins at St. Joseph’s, at Middle Tennessee, at Davidson and vs. St. Bonaventure at home. There’s no shame in a few of their defeats like neutral-court setbacks vs. FSU (76-71), vs. Duke (79-71) and vs. Wisconsin (74-73).

    — Johnson paced VCU in scoring by averaging 18.2 points per game. Johnson is shooting 41.7 percent from downtown. Billbury (11.5 PPG, 5.0 RPG) is hitting 42.1 percent of his attempts from 3-point range. JeQuan Lewis (11.2 PPG) leads the Rams in assists (125), steals (46) and 3-point shooting percentage (44.1%).

    — Richmond (14-11 SU, 9-12 ATS) owns a 4-5 record both SU and ATS in nine road assignments.

    — Richmond is No. 119 in the RPI, compiling a 2-5 record against the Top 50 and a 2-9 mark versus the Top 100. The Spiders have quality wins at George Washington and vs. California on a neutral floor.

    — Richmond saw its three-game winning streak snapped in Tuesday’s 83-79 loss at Davidson as a one-point underdog. T.J. Cline had 25 points, five rebounds and three assists without a turnover in the losing effort. Terry Allen added 17 points, eight rebounds, four assists and a pair of steals. Nevertheless, the Spiders came up short despite the fact that Davidson star guard Jack Gibbs didn’t play due to an illness.

    — Richmond has been an underdog nine times this year, going 3-6 both SU and ATS.

    — Allen lead the Spiders in scoring (18.4 PPG), rebounding (8.2 RPG) and steals (1.6 SPG).

    — The ‘under’ is 11-10 overall for VCU, but the ‘over’ is 6-4 in its home games.

    — The ‘over’ is 13-8 overall for the Spiders, 5-4 in their road contests.

    — ESPN2 will have the broadcast at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.

    **Iona at Monmouth**

    — The Westgate opened Monmouth (22-5 SU, 16-9 ATS) as a six-point favorite, while a few offshore shops had the total at 165 Thursday night.

    — Monmouth has won eight in a row but it has failed to cover the number in its last two outings. Even worse, the Hawks lost a key part of their arsenal moving forward in Monday’s 79-70 non-covering win over Manhattan as 14-point home ‘chalk.’ Deon Jones (10.4 PPG, 6.2 RPG) is ‘out’ indefinitely after breaking his hand against the Jaspers.

    — Monmouth is No. 40 in the RPI, going 2-2 versus the Top 50 and 6-2 against the Top 100. The Hawks own neutral-court victories over Notre Dame and Southern Cal. They also won at UCLA and at Georgetown, in addition to sweeping the season series from Siena (RPI: 91).

    — Robinson is the captain of the ship for King Rice’s club. The 5’8”, 160-pound point guard is averaging 20.3 points, 3.8 assists, 3.5 rebounds and 2.1 steals per game.

    — Monmouth is unbeaten in eight home games, posting a 4-3 spread record.

    — Iona (15-10 SU, 10-14 ATS) has been an underdog five times, going winless with a 1-4 spread record.

    — Iona has won five of its last six games both SU and ATS, including Monday’s 78-59 win vs. Quinnipiac as a 15-point home ‘chalk.’ A.J. English scored 16 points, dished out six assists and grabbed five rebounds. Ibn Muhammad and Isaiah Williams scored 15 points apiece.

    — English leads the Gaels in scoring (21.2 PPG) and assists (6.4 APG).

    — When these teams met in New Rochelle on Jan. 15, Monmouth captured a 110-102 victory as a 1.5-point road underdog. Robinson tallied 29 points, four rebounds, four assists and three steals. He was 12-of-12 from the charity stripe to help Monmouth backers cash tickets. Jones added 18 points.

    — The ‘under’ is 14-10-1 overall for Monmouth, 5-2 in its home games.

    — Totals have been an overall wash (12-12) for Iona, but the ‘under’ is 6-5 in its home contests.

    — Tip-off is scheduled for 10:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPNU.


    Basketball Crusher

    Richmond +9 over Virginia Commonwealth
    (System Record: 51-3, lost last game)
    Overall Record: 51-58-3

    Kent State +4 over Akron

    Brown +5 over Pennsylvania

    Oakland +8.5 over Valpo





    SG – Houston Sports Group

    Friday’s NCAAB Regular Plays
    Princeton Tigers -145
    Cornell Big Red -130



    100* Penn -5



    Play Dartmouth +1.5 over Cornell (TOP NCAA PLAY)–VIP PLAY
    Cornell has lost 29 of the last 43 games against the spread when playing as a home favorite of six points or less and they have lost 19 of the last 33 games against the spread vs. conference opponents. Cornell has lost 12 of the last 19 games against the spread when playing in the month of February and they are allowing an average of 83 points in their last five games.

    ‘Extra NCAA Basketball Plays’

    Play VCU -9.5 over Richmond

    Play Akron -4 over Kent State



    Play Valparaiso -8.5 over Oakland—Top Play (100 Units)
    Valparaiso has covered the spread in 31 of the last 46 games when playing on a Friday and they have covered the spread in 60 of the last 97 games after having won four of the last five games. Valparaiso has covered the spread in 16 of the last 23 games when playing their 3rd game in a week and they are only allowing an average of 55 points in their last five games.

    Play Ball State -4 over Northern Illinois—Top Play (50 Units)

    Play Detroit -6.5 over Illinois-Chicago—Top Play (50 Units)



    10000* Play VCU -9 over Richmond
    (Friday Night Game of the Year)
    Richmond has lost 22 of the last 34 games against the spread when playing as an underdog and they have lost 72 of the last 135 games against the spread when playing in the month of February. Richmond has lost 12 of the last 17 games against the spread when playing their 3rd game in a week and they are allowing an average of 79 points in road games this season.

    500* Play Valparaiso -8.5 over Oakland

    500* Play Detroit -6.5 over Illinois-Chicago

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