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CBB • Monday Service Plays • 11/16/15

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  • #14772
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    Keymaster

    College Basketball

    Notes for Monday’s games……….

    Tennessee outscored NC-Asheville 13-7 over last 2:47 to win Barnes’ first game as Vols’ coach; Tennessee has four starters back from LY’s club that went 16-16, 7-1 1in SEC. Georgia Tech waxed Cornell 116-81 in its opener, shooting 71% inside arc; ACC home favorites are 5-2 vs spread so far this young season. Vols are on their third coach in last three years.

    Indiana State lost 72-70 at home to IUPUI in opener, going 20-35 on foul line, 4-18 from arc; Sycamores have three starters back from team that was 11-7 in tough MVC LY. Wyoming hammered a stiff in its opener, so hard to tell lot about team that lost four starters from 25-10 team that won Mountain West tournament, lost in first round of NCAAs.

    Miami has four starters back from 25-13 team that lost in NIT title game; they’ve got senior guards, better not be looking ahead to Puerto Rico trip later this week. UL-Lafayette has four starters back from 22-14 team and is expected to contend in Sun Belt; they’ve won 46 games last 2+ years. ACC home favorites are 5-2 vs spread so far this young season.

    James Madison won local rivalry game 87-75 over Richmond in opener, scoring 1.34 ppp, making 11-24 on arc- they’ll get way more defensive pressure vs West Virginia, which has three starters back from 25-10 team and presses a lot. Dukes have all five starters back from 19-14 team that went 12-6 in a declining CAA; curious to see how they handle pressure.

    Virginia beat George Washington 59-42 LY, holding GW to 16 points in second half after trailing by 4 at half; Cavaliers have three starters back from 30-4 team that won a game in NCAAs LY, but lost Anderson, their best player to NBA. GW has three starters back from 22-13 team; they beat Lafayette 85-76 in opener, despite going 2-17 from the arc.

    San Diego State beat Utah 53-49 LY in dreadful game that was 18-17 at half; Aztecs held Illinois State to 31% from floor in 71-60 opening win, going 22-37 on line. Utes held off Southern Utah by 11 in opener, even though T-birds went 10-19 from arc. Utah has four starters back from LY’s 26-9 team that made it to the Sweet 16.

    Cal waxed Rice by 32 in its opener, going 10-23 from arc. Golden Bears had one of best recruiting classes in country, and three starters from LY’s 18-15 team- they’re expected to contend in Pac-12. UCSB won its opener 60-59 at Omaha, surviving 4-18 shooting from arc. Pac-12 home favorites are 3-5 vs spread this season; Big West underdogs are 3-3 vs spread.

    Baylor opened strong, pounding good SF Austin team by 42 in opener, making 9-16 from arc, shooting 68% inside arc. Bears have three starters back from LY’s 24-10 team. Oregon has three starters back from 26-10 team that went 13-5 in Pac-12 and won NCAA game, but they lost best player in Young. Ducks are well-coached, should be deeper than LY.

    Oral Roberts beat Missouri State of MVC by 15 in its opener, hitting 8-17 on arc, 24-32 on line; Eagles lost three of top four scorers from LY, but they recruited six good newcomers. South Carolina is 28-74 in SEC games last six years; Gamecocks have four starters back from LY; no one had more than three assists in their opener, a little troubling.

    IUPUI won its opener by hoop at Indiana State, big win for Jaguar club that has four starters back from 10-21 team (6-10 in Summit). Marquette got upset 83-80 by Belmont in its opener; Eagles brought in five frosh to supplement LY’s returnees- they’re very young, play Iowa/LSU in next two games. Summit road underdogs are 5-2 against the spread.

    Manhattan is only MAAC team that hasn’t playet yet; Jaspers has two starters back from 19-14, 13-7 club that won second MAAC tourney in a row, then lost play-in game by 10 to Hampton. St Mary’s lost all five of LY’s starters from 21-10, 13-5 team; Gaels have no seniors, two juniors, are extremely inexperienced- curious to see Manhattan press them.

    Belmont won its opener 83-80 at Marquette, a great win; Bruins hit 12 of 34 from arc, 18-32 inside arc; they’ve got four starters back from a 22-11 team that lost by 12 to Virginia in NCAAs LY. Arizona State started the Bobby Hurley era the wrong way, losing to Sacramento State after being up 10 with 11:37 left. ASU was just 2-17 on arc, 15-27 on foul line.

    USC hammered rebuilding San Diego by 38 in its opener, Trojans have all five starters back from 12-20, 3-15 team- not 100% sure thats good thing. Monmouth upset UCLA 84-81 in OT in its opener after trailing by 13 with 12:07 left– Hawks lost to West Va, Maryland, SMU LY, but none by more than 12 points, so they know they can compete here.

    #14773
    admin
    Keymaster

    StatFox Super Situations™ – FoxSheets

    CBB | AUSTIN PEAY at INDIANA
    Play On – Home favorites of 20 or more points (INDIANA) after a blowout win by 20 points or more, with four starters returning from last year in the first 5 games of the season
    41-15 since 1997. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units )

    CBB | GEORGE MASON at MERCER
    Play On – A road team vs. the money line (GEORGE MASON) after a game where a team made 33% of their shots or worse
    832-1419 since 1997. ( 37.0% | -144.1 units )

    CBB | JAMES MADISON at W VIRGINIA
    Play Under – Neutral court teams against the total after scoring 85 points or more, with 2 more starters returning from last year than opponent
    46-18 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )

    #14782
    admin
    Keymaster

    CRUSHER

    Monmouth +9.5 over USC

    Baylor (pk) over Oregon

    #14788
    admin
    Keymaster

    PAUL LEINER

    100* Kansas State -3.5

    100* Oral Roberts +15

    #14790
    admin
    Keymaster

    INTPICKS

    College Basketball
    #536
    8:00 PM ET
    1 Star
    Bradley @ Arizona
    Take Arizona -28

    #14803
    admin
    Keymaster

    SMART SPORTS INVESTMENTS

    Risked 3 units to win 2.86
    Wyoming +5.5 -105 vs Indiana State

    Risked 3 units to win 2.86
    Eastern Illinois +7 -105 vs Ball State

    #14806
    admin
    Keymaster

    INDIAN COWBOY

    3* Georgia Tech -7.5

    3* Mercer -7.5

    3* South Carolina -14

    #14810
    admin
    Keymaster

    JACK JONES

    15* USC -9.5

    #14814
    admin
    Keymaster

    SHAKER’S SHORTS

    CBB Total Monday, 11/16/2015 7:00 PM
    514 Georgia Tech / 513 Tennessee – Over 146.5

    Analysis: The effective open at Pinny, our personal standard, was 145.5 here although BOL opened it much lower. As always we wait until the line matures and is Widely Available, which it is now. You can play the full 2% here up to 150.5. This one might drift down a bit during the betting cycle but we are not taking that chance..

    #14815
    admin
    Keymaster

    WUNDERDOG

    Game: James Madison Dukes (523) vs. West Virginia Mountaineers (524)
    Time: Monday 11/16 7:00 PM Eastern
    Pick: Game Total UNDER 152.5 (-110) at Bet33
    James Madison beat Richmond 87-75 on Friday as a nine-point underdog, largely due to a big advantage from three-point range. The Dukes made 11-of-24 while Richmond was just 5-of-17 from beyond the arc. Shakir Brown totaled 20 points and 12 rebounds, and Ron Curry added 19 points and eight assists. James Madison returns all five starters this season with an emphasis on an improving defense. West Virginia is coming off a 107-61 win over Northern Kentucky. Jevon Carter led his team with 24 points, followed by Daxter Miles, Jr. with 19, and Devin Williams with 18. The Mountaineers always play a physical game under coach Bob Huggins, and this game is being played on a neutral court in Charleston. The posted total is too high for this matchup. Play this game to stay UNDER the total.

    #14818
    admin
    Keymaster

    DAVE COKIN

    2* Marquette -14.5

    2* Saint Mary’s -8

    2* USC -9

    Free play – Boise -16

    #14820
    admin
    Keymaster

    Red Dog Sports
    (won yesterday with UNC/Fairfield over).

    UConn at Ohio State (Women’s BB)
    5:30pm Monday
    OVER 139

    UConn opens the season today at Ohio State. OSU just lost at South Carolina 88-80 (168). Guard Kelsey Mitchell scored 36 and Alston had 23. Cooper was just 2/17 and should play better at home. This is the opener for UConn and last year they opened with 102, 77 (before OT), 96, 85, 91 and 89 points. The Lady Huskies return Brianna Stewart, Kia Nurse and Moriah Jefferson. They usually play solid defense but hope they get into a shootout with OSU, who play in a conference that is offensive minded.

    I usually look for unders in women’s college hoops,especially in the tournament, but think we have a solid chance for an over if the Ohio State guards can score.

    #14826
    admin
    Keymaster

    Dave Essler | CBB Sides Mon, 11/16/15 – 8:00 PM

    dime bet – 533 Drake 7.5 (-110) vs 534 Tulane

    Analysis: I don’t often play basketball teasers and some would argue that it’s never a good idea – but, I like this one. First of all the money is on Drake – and that game SHOULD be low scoring, hence more value to the points, so I will take them. Secondly, G-Tech is a very, very good team, and I will fade Rick Barnes (UT coach) almost every chance I get, so:

    Drake +7.5 to Georgia Tech – 1.5

    TBH (too be honest) I am simply not looking to make a million the first six weeks or so of CBB. It’s a learning curve, and we usually kill Conference play, so I am looking to make SOME or stay above the Mendoza line, while we get information on who some of these teams really are. I’m not tempering expectations – just being realistic, just like most any sport.

    I inadvertently entered this at -110. I know it should be -130 give or take, some are more and some are slightly less (most places) and will grade it as such. My goal was to get Drake at least +7 and Tech at -2 or better.

    #14827
    admin
    Keymaster

    ROBERT FERRINGO

    7-Unit Play. Take #548 Indiana (-27.5) over Austin Peay (7 p.m., Monday, Nov. 16)

    2-Unit Play. FIRST HALF: Take #548 Indiana (-15) over Austin Peay (7 p.m., Monday, Nov. 16)

    2-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 153.0 Austin Peay at Indiana (7 p.m., Monday, Nov. 16)

    Indiana beat Eastern Illinois, a team out of the Ohio Valley Conference, by 39 points in its opener on Friday. The Hoosiers are now facing a worse team from the same conference and I see absolutely no reason why this game would be any less of a bloodbath. This Indiana team has very clear goals this year: get to a Final Four. Tom Crean is a guy whose seat has gotten awful toasty over the last two seasons and he needs results. I don’t see him taking it easy on anyone and I think that Crean will give his boys the whip. The last time that Crean had a team this talented was in 2012-13 (Cody Zeller, Victor Oladipo, etc.). That year they just demolished overmatched competition. Here are some of their point differentials against mid-major teams ranked outside of the Top 100: 43, 54, 48, 36, 31, 39, 36, and 34 points.

    They beat a really good NDSU team by 26 that year. They beat North Carolina by 24. Even the year after that, Crean had a much worse IU team (they won 17 games and missed the tournament) and he still put up some serious differentials in November and early December, winning by 28, 1, 46, 16, 31, 21 and 27 points. The Hoosiers didn’t even play all that well against Eastern Illinois. They shot just 9-for-27 from 3-point range and went just 15-for-25 from the free throw line. But Crean played four of his five starters over 20 minutes in a 40-point blowout and IU was up 49-17 at the half in that one.

    Austin Peay has a center that stands 6-8. That’s it. That’s their only center. They only have one other guy that’s taller than 6-5 on the roster. Indiana has five guys on the bench that are 6-7 or taller. And all those guys can run and dunk and shoot. Austin Peay just lost by 39 points at Vanderbilt, and Indiana is better than Vandy. Oh, and Vanderbilt was up 32 at the half and they only played a couple guys more than 20 minutes.

    This Austin Peay team is one of the worst offensive teams in college basketball and they don’t stand a prayer of guarding Indiana. This same AP group lost 107-66 at Illinois last year and lost 92-63 at Ole Miss. This Indiana team is a LOT better than either of those two squads. Also, Indiana scored 88 points in the opener against an EIU team that doesn’t play at a fast tempo. The Panthers haven’t been in the Top 200 in adjusted tempo in any of Jay Spoonhour’s three seasons on the bench. However, Austin Peay (for some unknown reason) plays fast and shoots fast under Dave Loos. They have been in the Top 75 in adjusted tempo each of the past five years and two seasons ago they were No. 22. Austin Peay will have no problem talking the Hoosiers into a fast-paced game and Indiana should just unload on them.

    In Indiana’s first game the two teams combined to go 13-for-43 from 3-point range and just 26-for-44 from the free throw line. That’s just rust. And the number – with a much slower pace – still got to 137 points. Austin Peay shot 14-for-64 from the field and just 1-for-16 from 3-point range. They have to accidentally shoot better than that. And they should against an Indiana team that can get a little lax on defense. (Vanderbilt has been a Top 100 defensive team each of the past two years. Indiana was No. 214 last season and their defense kind of comes and goes.)

    Crean is going to flex here. There’s almost no way Indiana doesn’t score 100 and I would be a bit surprised if this game wasn’t decided by 40. IU can pick its score. I’ll pick 102-68.

    1-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 142.0 UC-Santa Barbara at California (10 p.m., Monday, Nov. 16)

    There aren’t going to be a lot of teams that stop California this year. And I don’t think that UCSB is one of them. That said, while this spread is a little too rich for my blood I do think that both teams can put some points on the board. Cal nearly topped 100 in its opener while UCSB barely cracked 60. Obviously both teams are going to show some regression, with Cal likely toning it down but also with Santa Barbara stepping up. First, I don’t think there’s any doubt the Gauchos were looking ahead to this game with Cal in their opener. Second, they had to play without their best player, guard Michael Bryson. UCSB shot just 18.2 percent from 3-point range in that game (4-for-22) and just 34.9 percent from the field overall (22-for-63). That’s just not going to happen again tonight. California has, for my money, the best backcourt in the country. Their trio of guards is going to get 40 points all by itself tonight. Add in two All-American forwards – who UCSB has absolutely no answer for – and it should be an EZ-Pass in the post for the Golden Bears tonight. I’ll call this one 82-66.

    1-Unit Play. Take #524 West Virginia (-11) over James Madison (7 p.m., Monday, Nov. 16)

    NOTE: If you can’t play these following ?exotic? wagers – don’t worry about it! They are just parlays and teasers. Nothing too mind-bending. But I know that some locals won’t take them. Regardless, it is only 3.0 Units of action so don’t fret if you can’t get these ones down.

    1-Unit Play. MONEYLINE PARLAY: Take #514 Georgia Tech (-360) AND #520 Old Dominion (-575) AND #562 Illinois State (-630) AND #576 USC (-630)

    NOTE: This is the first moneyline parlay I’ve ever released in 10 years of my college basketball service. If you can’t make this wager then don’t worry about it. The payout is (+102) so it is basically a 1-to-1 wager.

    1-Unit Play. 5-POINT TEASER: Take #520 Old Dominion (-5) over Buffalo (7 p.m.) AND Take #576 USC (-5.5) over Monmouth (10 p.m.)

    1-Unit Play. 5-POINT TEASER: Take #514 Georgia Tech (-3) over Tennessee (7 p.m.) AND Take #522 East Carolina (-2.5) over UNC-Charlotte (7 p.m.)

    #14829
    admin
    Keymaster

    Billy Coleman

    4 star – Drake

    3 star – Tennessee tech

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