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CBB • Monday Service Plays • 2/22/16

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    Big Monday Tip Sheet
    By David Schwab

    This Monday night’s college hoops action on ESPN really is big with a pair of crucial showdowns in both the ACC and the Big 12.

    First up in a 7:00 p.m. ET tip at the BankUnited Center, the Virginia Cavaliers go on the road to face the Miami Hurricanes with both teams 10-4 in conference play and looking to stay on North Carolina’s heels for the lead in the ACC.

    At 9:00 p.m. ET from the WVU Coliseum, the Iowa State Cyclones will look to make up some ground in the Big 12 standings when they square-off against the West Virginia Mountaineers.

    No. 7 Virginia Cavaliers at No. 11 Miami Hurricanes (ESPN, 7:00 p.m. ET)

    Opening Odds: Pick ’em, 128

    Betting Matchup

    The 21-5 Cavaliers are currently a half-game behind North Carolina with last Monday’s 73-53 victory against NC State as 11 ½-point home favorites. They have now covered against the spread in five of their last six games. The total stayed UNDER 129 ½ points in that win and it has now stayed UNDER in their last six games.

    Senior guard Malcolm Brogdon and junior guard London Perrantes combined for 41 points against the Wolfpack and the team as a whole shot a blazing 53.7 percent from the field. Brogdon continues to lead Virginia in scoring with 17.8 points per game while hitting 46.5 percent of his shots. The Cavaliers are scoring 71.1 PPG and they are ranked second in the nation in points allowed (59.5).

    The Hurricanes blew a chance to take the lead in the ACC by getting their doors blown off by North Carolina this past Saturday in a 96-71 loss as 7 ½-point road underdogs. The loss snapped a straight-up five-game winning streak and Miami is now 4-2 ATS during this same stretch. The total went OVER 147 against the Tar Heels after staying UNDER in the previous four games.

    Miami had no answer for stopping North Carolina this past Saturday and a nine-point deficit at the half turned into an ugly 25-point loss. The Hurricanes shot just 42.4 percent from the field as opposed to a season average of 47.4 percent. Senior guard Sheldon McClellan (15.8 PPG) was held to 10 points and he has now scored 11 or fewer points in three of his last four games. It was the first time the Hurricanes allowed more than 70 points in their last six outings.

    Betting Trends

    — The Cavaliers are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 Monday games and they have covered in four of their last five games following a SU win. The total has stayed UNDER in five of their last six road games.

    — The Hurricanes are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games at home, but they fall to 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a SU loss. The total has stayed UNDER in seven of their last eight home games.

    — Head-to-head in this ACC tilt, the favorite is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings and the total has gone OVER in four of the last five games played at Miami. Virginia struck first blood in this season’s series with a 66-58 victory on Jan. 12 as a 4 ½-point home favorite. The total stayed UNDER the closing 131 ½-point line.

    Iowa State Cyclones at West Virginia Mountaineers (ESPN, 9:00 p.m. ET)

    Opening Odds: West Virginia -4 ½, 158

    Betting Matchup

    Iowa State is 8-6 SU in conference play this season and a game behind the 9-4 Mountaineers in the standings following a 92-83 victory against TCU this past Saturday. It failed to cover as a heavy 17 ½-point home favorite to fall to a costly 2-5 ATS in its last seven games and the total has now gone OVER in the last four contests. Overall, the Cyclones are 19-8 SU with a 12-11-1 record ATS.

    Senior forward Georges Niang has been a force all season long with a team-high 19.7 PPG to go along with 6.3 rebounds and 3.1 assists. He lit-up TCU for 27 points and he has now scored at least 24 points in his last three games. All told, the Cyclones are one of the deepest scoring teams in the country with six players averaging at least 10 PPG. Iowa State is averaging 83 points a game and shooting an effective 50.4 percent from the floor.

    The Mountaineers will look to pick up the pieces following Saturday’s 76-62 spanking at the hands of Oklahoma as four-point home favorites. This followed an 85-78 road loss to Texas as two-point underdogs and they are now just 1-3 (SU and ATS) in their last four games. The total stayed UNDER 153 ½ points in the loss to the Sooners and it has stayed UNDER in three of their last four outings

    West Virginia has averaged 79.3 points this season and at the other end of the court it is holding teams to 66 PPG. Over the course of its last four games, its scoring average has dropped to 69.5 points and it has given-up 75 points or more in all three losses. Senior guard Jaysean Paige and junior forward Devin Williams are each averaging 13 PPG as the team’s top two scorers and they combined for 23 points in Saturday’s loss. One injury note for Monday has Daxter Miles Jr. (10.1 PPG) listed as questionable after sitting out the last two games with a bad hamstring.

    Betting Trends

    — The Cyclones are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against a team with a SU winning record, but they have covered in four of their last five Monday games. The total has stayed UNDER in their last five games played on Monday.

    — The Mountaineers are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games and they are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU loss. The total has stayed UNDER in eight of their last nine games at home.

    — Iowa State’s three-game winning streak both SU and ATS in this series came to an end on Feb. 2 with West Virginia’s 81-76 victory as a five-point road underdog. The total ended as a PUSH in that game after staying UNDER in the previous three meetings.


    College Basketball

    Virginia won its last three games with Miami by 25-9-8 points, beating Hurricanes 66-58 at home Jan 12, in brickfest where teams shot 8-29 on arc combined. Cavaliers won 89-80 in OT here LY, their first win in last six visits to Miami. Virginia won eight of last nine games, with one loss the buzzer-beater at Duke. Miami won its last 11 home games since a November loss to Northeastern. ACC home faves of 3 or less are 8-5.

    Home side won seven of last nine Texas-KState games; Longhorns lost four of last five visits to Little Apple- they won here 61-57 LY, after losing by 9-4-26-17 points. Texas lost three of last four games, losing at Oklahoma/Iowa State in last two road games. Wildcats are 3-4 at home in Big X, losing rivalry game with Kansas two nights ago. Big X home dogs of 5 or less points are 5-10 against the spread.

    Green Bay made 11-21 on arc, routed Cleveland State 87-67 Jan 7 on the road, their sixth win in last eight series games. Vikings lost three of last four visits here, losing by 4-27-11 points- they won LY’s visit here in OT, 66-61. Phoenix won three of last four games; they’re 5-1 at home in Horizon. CSU lost seven of its last eight games, losing last two by 23-34 points, Horizon League double digit home favorites are 13-7 vs spread.

    Milwaukee won its last five games with Youngstown State, winning on road 81-65 in first meeting Jan 7- Panthers made 12-27 on arc, scored 1.27 ppp that night. Penguins lost last two visits here by 6-15 points; they’re lost four of last five games, with win in double OT vs UIC. YSU is 3-5 on Horizon road, losing last two away games by 29-17 points. Horizon League double digit home favorites are 13-7 vs spread.

    West Virginia won 81-76 at Iowa State Feb 2, rallying back from down 15 in first half, just WV’s second series win in last seven games. Iowa St lost despite shooting 11-22 on arc- they won two of last three visits to Morgantown. Mountaineers lost three of last four games; they’re 5-2 at home in conference, losing to Texas/Oklahoma. Big X home favorites of 6 or less points are 11-9 against the spread.

    Siena rallied from 12 down with 11:13 left to upset Iona 81-78 on road nine days ago, its first win in last eight games with Iona, which won last three regular season visits here, by 4-9-14 points- it was Gaels’ one loss in last seven games- they had big win at Monmouth Friday, avenging an earlier loss. Siena is 7-1 at home, losing to Monmouth; they’re 8-2 in last 10 games overall. MAAC home favorites of 3 or less points are 4-8.

    Norfolk State won eight of last 11 games after starting season 5-11; they crushed Coppin State 88-56 on road Dec 7, scoring 1.29 ppp, shooting 56.1% inside arc, 7-13 outside it. Norfolk is 9-3 in MEAC, winning last three home games, by 13-19-6 points. Coppin State is 5-5 in its last ten games after starting season 0-14 vs D-I teams (they have two non-D-I wins); Eagles lost last three road games, by 40-5-9 points.


    StatFox Super Situations™ – FoxSheets

    Play Under – Road teams against the total off a double digit loss as a home favorite of 6 more, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record
    61-28 since 1997. ( 68.5% | 30.2 units )
    1-3 this year. ( 25.0% | -2.3 units )

    Play On – Home teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (MIAMI) a good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) after 15+ games, after a combined score of 155 points or more
    88-46 since 1997. ( 65.7% | 36.5 units )
    8-6 this year. ( 57.1% | 1.5 units )

    Play Against – Home favorites of 6 to 11 points vs. the first half line (WI-GREEN BAY) an average team (+/- 3.5 PPG diff.) against a poor team (-3.5 to -8 PPG diff.) after 15+ games, after a combined score of 155 points or more
    67-31 since 1997. ( 68.4% | 32.9 units )
    2-2 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.2 units )


    Basketball Crusher

    Youngstown State +16.5 over Wisconsin Milwaukee
    (System Record: 53-3, won last 2 games)
    Overall Record: 53-59-3

    Iona +2 over Sienna

    Iowa State +5 over West Virginia



    100* Siena -2

    100* Miami -1



    3-Unit Play. Take #515 Virginia (+1.5)
    over Miami
    (7 p.m., Monday, Feb. 22)
    The wrong team is favored in this one! Virginia is the better team here. They are the two-time defending ACC regular season champions and they will have the upper hand in this one. Virginia has beaten Miami three straight times and the Hurricanes are coming off a bad blowout loss at North Carolina over the weekend. Miami lost that one by 25 and they also lost their top sixth man Ja’Quan Newton. Miami has just two wins over Top 25 teams all season long and I don’t think that this team is good enough to get this win. Virginia has won eight of their last nine games overall and their only win was a one-point loss at Duke. That was a game the Cavs should’ve won if not for a bad call in the final seconds. Virginia is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall and they will get the job done here.



    1-UnitPlay. Take #516 Miami (-1)
    over Virginia
    (7 p.m., Monday, Feb. 22)


    Wise Guy Insider

    West Virginia -6


    Mike Lee

    3* Iowa State +5.5



    Youngstown State +17


    Doc Bryan

    Coppin St+13

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