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CBB ♦ "Vegas 16 Tourney" ♦ Monday 3/28/16

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    NEWSLETTER College Basketball Prediction From Strike Point Sports

    Take #593 Northern Illinois (+6) over Santa Barbara (5:30 p.m., Monday, March 28)
    The Huskies compete in the inaugural Vegas 16 postseason tournament next week, and I value them with the points in this spot. Northern Illinois should have their focus on this event, as NIU is coming off an impressive 21-12 season for the program, and really a solid run here would put a nice bow on the season as a whole. They’ve been a good bet for the most part as an underdog this year, and I don’t trust UCSB as a favorite off their home floor. We are also looking at a big play in this same tournament next week, as we’ve identified a big time mismatch from one of the other opening games.


    College Basketball Betting Trends – Mon – Mar, 28

    Tennessee Tech at Old Dominion, 3:00 ET
    Tennessee Tech: 19-8 ATS in road games off a loss by 10 pts or more to a conf rival
    Old Dominion: 0-6 ATS in road games in non-conference games

    Northern Illinois at Cal Santa Barbara, 5:30 ET
    N Illinois: 19-9 ATS off a loss against a conference rival
    Cal Santa Barbara: 7-0 OVER after 5 games forcing opp to commit 14 or less turnovers

    Towson at Oakland, 9:00 ET
    Towson: 14-5 UNDER after a game where they failed to cover the spread
    Oakland: 11-4 ATS after 3 consecutive conference games

    E Tennessee State at Louisiana Tech, 11:30 ET
    E Tenn St: 19-7 ATS after having won 15 or more of their last 20
    Louisiana Tech: 15-4 OVER in non-conference games

    Nevada at Morehead State, 8:30 ET
    Nevada: 1-7 ATS after 3 consecutive non-conference games
    Morehead St: 11-0 ATS after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games


    NCAA tournament

    This is first game of best-of-3 series;
    games 2-3 are in Reno. Nevada lost three of last four true road games, with only win at San Jose. Wolf Pack has star G Coleman back now- he had 20 points last game. Nevada won 11 of 15 non-league games; they play tempo #58, have an NBA coach. Morehead State won at Siena/Ohio to get here; they won nine of last 10 D-I games, are more experienced, deeper team, with a lesser coach.

    Old Dominion won seven of last eight games, losing in C-USA title game by hoop to Middle Tennessee, which upset Michigan State in NCAAs. Monarchs are 19-3 vs teams outside the top 150- they’ve got #18 eFG% defense. Tennessee Tech hasn’t played in 26 days; they’ll start three seniors but lost four of their last six games. C-USA teams are 7-5 vs OVC teams this season, 3-5 vs spread if favored.

    UCSB won nine of its last 10 games after a 9-12 start, losing to Hawai’i by 12 in Big West tourney; Gauchos are just 6-7 outside Big West; they have shortest trip to Vegas of these eight teams. Northern Illinois went finished 7-10 after a 14-2 start; they beat CSUN of Big West by 12 in season opener. MAC teams won/covered all three games vs Big West this season; they were favored in all three.

    Oakland is 10-3 in last 13 games; they play #14 tempo with really good PG. Grizzlies haven’t played in three weeks; they shoot 39.6% on arc- Mandalay Bay is big arena- will it hurt their shooting? Towson State is playing tempo #301; they’re 9-4 out of conference, but played terrible schedule (#343). Tigers are 4-5 in last nine games- they haven’t played in 23 days. Interesting contrast in styles in this game.

    East Tennessee State won seven of last eight games, losing SoCon title game by 6 to Chattanooga; Buccaneers haven’t played in three weeks. ETSU went 8-6 vs #41 non-league schedule; they’re #15 experience team and shoot 38.2% on arc (#16). Louisiana Tech lost its last two games after a 23-7 start; they are #242 in experience. SoCon teams are 3-2 vs C-USA teams this year; underdogs covered four of the five games.


    Monday’s Vegas 16 Tips
    By David Schwab

    Las Vegas is the undisputed sports betting capital of the world and it has decided to get into all the action March Madness brings to the table with the inaugural Vegas 16 Tournament starting this Monday night at Mandalay Bay. While there are only eight teams in the field, the four matchups on the slate feature Old Dominion and UC Santa Barbara in the top half of the bracket and Oakland and Louisiana Tech in the bottom half as favorites to advance to the next round.

    Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles vs. Old Dominion Monarchs (CBS Sports Network, 3 p.m. ET)

    Opening Odds: Old Dominion -7 ½, 138

    Betting Matchup

    The Golden Eagles went 11-5 straight-up in the Ohio Valley Conference this season as part of an overall record of 19-11. They closed things out on a down note with just two SU wins in their last six games while failing to cover against the spread in five of those contests. The player to watch in this tournament would be senior guard Torrance Rowe. He has averaged 22.3 points in his last four starts.

    Old Dominion made a run to the Conference USA Tournament Finals before falling to Middle Tennessee is a tight 55-53 loss as a three-point favorite. This was just the second time the Monarchs failed to cover in their last eight games. The total has stayed UNDED in seven of their last 10 outings. Senior guard Trey Freeman led the conference in scoring this season with 22.2 PPG.

    Betting Trends

    — The Golden Eagles have failed to cover in five of their last seven nonconference games and the total has stayed UNDER in 11 of their last 16 games played at neutral site.

    — The Monarchs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games outside their conference and the total has gone OVER in seven of their last nine Monday games.

    UC Santa Barbara Gauchos vs. Northern Illinois Huskies (CBS Sports Network, 5:30 p.m. ET)

    Opening Odds: UC Santa Barbara -5, 136.5

    Betting Matchup

    The Gauchos fell to Hawaii 88-76 in the Big West Tournament as 3 ½-point underdogs to snap a SU nine-game winning streak. They went a very profitable 8-1 ATS during this run with the total going OVER in three of their last four games. UC Santa Barbara averaged 71.5 PPG led by senior guard Michael Bryson. His 18.4 point scoring average was the best in the Big West.

    Northern Illinois went an even 9-9 SU in the Mid-American Conference this season and then bowed-out of the conference tournament with a 79-62 loss to Ohio as a 2 ½-point underdog. The Huskies were a solid bet down the stretch with a 7-3 record ATS over their last 10 games. They averaged 72.7 PPG while shooting 42.8 percent from the field and 35.1 percent from three-point range.

    Betting Trends

    — The Gauchos are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a SU loss and the total has gone OVER in their last four nonconference games.

    — The Huskies have gone 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight games played on Monday and the total has gone OVER in their last four games against the Big West.

    Oakland Golden Grizzlies vs. Towson Tigers (CBS Sports Network, 9 p.m. ET)

    Opening Odds: Oakland -6, 160

    Betting Matchup

    Competing in the Horizon League, Oakland finished second to Valparaiso in the regular season standings at 13-5 as part of an overall SU record of 21-11. A 59-55 loss to Wright State as 6 ½-point favorites ended the Golden Grizzlies postseason run, but they were still a solid 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games. Junior guard Key Felder led the Horizon in scoring with 24.2 PPG.

    Towson went 20-12 SU in the regular season including an 11-7 record in the CAA. Its postseason run was also short-lived with a 71-60 loss to the Northeastern Huskies as a 1 ½-point underdog. The Tigers went 9-6 ATS this season when closing as underdogs. Senior forward William Adala Moto scored 18 points and pulled-down 12 rebounds in a losing effort against the Huskies.

    Betting Trends

    — The Golden Grizzlies have failed to cover in seven of their last eight neutral-site games and the total has gone OVER in 11 of their last 14 games outside their conference.

    — The Tigers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against a team with a SU winning record and the total has stayed UNDER in their last four games played at a neutral site.

    Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs. E. Tennessee St. Buccaneers (CBS Sports Network, 11:30 p.m. ET)

    Opening Odds: Louisiana Tech -2, 155.5

    Betting Matchup

    Louisiana Tech is the second entry in this tournament from C-USA. The Bulldogs tied ODU for third place in the regular season at 12-6 SU, but they exited the conference tournament with a 68-52 loss to the Monarchs as three-point underdogs. They went an even 12-12 ATS with the total going OVER in 16 of those 24 games. Senior guard Alex Hamilton was third in the conference in scoring with 19.7 PPG and he was at the top of the list in assists (5.7).

    The Buccaneers finished second to Chattanooga in the Southern Conference at 14-4 SU and they also lost to the Mocs 73-67 as 5 ½-point underdogs in the postseason tournament. It was the first time they failed to cover in their last seven games. Senior guard Ge’Lawn Guyn averaged 18.2 PPG and he has now scored 20 points or more in four of his last five starts.

    Betting Trends

    — The Bulldogs are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU loss and the total has gone OVER in four of their last five Monday games.

    — The Buccaneers have covered in their last four nonconference games and the total has stayed UNDER in eight of their last 11 games at a neutral site.


    StatFox Super Situations™ – FoxSheets

    Play Under – Neutral court teams against the total after allowing 80 points or more against opponent after a loss by 6 points or less
    135-78 over the last 5 seasons. ( 63.4% | 49.2 units )
    21-17 this year. ( 55.3% | 2.3 units )

    Play Against – Any team (OAKLAND) explosive offensive team – scoring 84+ points/game on the season
    1354-1702 since 1997. ( 44.3% | 38.5 units )
    195-205 this year. ( 48.8% | 11.5 units )

    Play Under – Neutral court teams against the total in a game involving two average shooting teams (42.5-45%)
    232-142 over the last 5 seasons. ( 62.0% | 75.8 units )
    40-30 this year. ( 57.1% | 7.0 units )


    Gold Medal Club

    CBB Selection



    Morehead St -3.5


    SportsBetCappers – Carson K

    2* Morehead State -4


    Basketball Crusher

    Nevada +4 over Morehead State
    (System Record: 68-4, won last 2 games)
    Overall Record: 68-79-3

    East Tennessee State +2 over Louisiana Tech


    Brandon Lang

    10 Dime Cal Santa Barbara over N.Illinois.
    The current line on this game is -5 in Vegas and offshore. Be sure to shop around for the best line available.



    OVER 155 – ETSU /Louisiana Tech



    The analysis of the 4 games for Monday, March 28th comes with a backdrop that these teams have not played for between 16 and 26 days.

    Tenn-Tech vs. ODU (-7) 3:00 ET
    These teams have the biggest rest gap with Tenn-Tech not taking the floor for 26 days, since their First Round OVC CCT loss to Austin Peay by a whopping 20 points. That put the emphasis on a season-ending slide that saw the Golden Eagles nosedive to a 2-4 SU, 1-5 ATS finish in which they allowed an average of 82 PPG. Meanwhile, defensive tough ODU with 16 days rest (the least in the field) was on a 7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS uptick before being nipped by Mid-Tenn (slayers of Michigan St.) 55-53 in the CUSA CCT finale. ODU lead guard, Freeman (22 PPG), and the emerging Bacote, along with a far superior defense make this a clear choice.

    N. Illinois vs. Cal Santa Barbara (-4-) 5:30 ET
    This opening line of (-6) has been impacted by the loss of Green (11/5) for the Gauchos. But, they have plenty of perimeter power to compensate with guards Bryson (18/6), Vincent (14 PPG) and PG Childress to run the show. Barbie was red hot at 9-0 SU, 7-2 ATS (5-0 SU ATS away) before falling to league champ, Hawaii, by 12 in the CCT. Their challenge is to put the clamps on Husky big man, Maric, the near 7 footer who is averaging 12/9. But, N. Illinois was noncompetitive in a 79-62 loss to Ohio in the CCT and enters this contest with 8 consecutive road losses.

    Towson vs. Oakland (-6) 9:00 ET
    Showtime in Vegas for one of the nation’s most exciting teams molded by 32 year HC Greg Kampe and led by lead guard Felder. The Golden Grizz average 86 PPG on 46% from the field, knocking down 9 triples at 40%, while converting 77% from the stripe to seal the deal. No problem with traveling for the Grizz, who are 14-3 ATS in road and neutral contests. Too much for the Towson Tigers, who average 15 less PPG and failed to growl in the CCT of the Colonial, where they languished in the middle of the pack.

    ETSU vs. LA Tech (-2-) 11:30 ET
    It was an underperforming season for LA Tech after former HC White left for Florida and was replaced by Eric Konko (the former Larranaga Asst.). Though the Bulldogs did win 23 games for the 4th consecutive season, they slipped badly down the stretch with a season-ending road loss at WKU and a CCT loss (by 16) to ODU. One-man show, Hamilton (20 PPG) not enough to overcome the strong finish of ETSU. Under 1st year HC Forbes (Wichita Asst.), the Bucs were on a 6-0 SU ATS season-ending run, before losing to Chattanooga (for the 3rdtime) in the CCT. Forbes and the Bucs profited greatly with Cinci transfer Guyn and Juco Cromer turning on the jets to lead a 78 PPG offense. A gutsy underdog call on the SOCON dog!


    Dave Essler

    1* Tenn Tech +7



    100* Old Dominion -7

    100* Nevada +4.5

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