- December 5, 2015 at 9:10 am #18350
Seton Hall beat in-state rival Rutgers 77-71/81-54 last two years; they’ve won six of last seven visits here. Pirates are 5-2, losing first road game by 8 at George Washington Wednesday; they’re turning ball over 20.9% of time, shooting just 30.8% on arc- their best wins are Ole Miss/Georgia. Rutgers lost last three games by 1-10-18 points, all vs top 100 teams.
Mike Hopkins is coaching Syracuse for next month (9 games); Boeheim’s suspension starts here. Orange lost four of last six games at Georgetown; they’re 6-1 this year, winning tourney on Atlantis- this is their first true road game. Georgetown is 3-3 with best win by 10 over Wisconsin; they are 1-2 vs top 50 teams. Big East home favorites are 12-8 vs spread.
Loyola took Creighton’s place in MVC when Bluejays bolted to the Big East; Ramblers lost last two games by 8-11 points; they lost by 24 to New Mexico in only top 100 game. Creighton is 5-2 but both losses are to top 100 teams, which Loyola isn’t; they lost by 21 at Indiana in only road game. Jays are shooting 58.3% inside arc, have #12 eFG%.
California beat Wyoming 45-42 LY, in brickfest that was 16-15 at half; Bears never led by more than seven points, have a more talented roster with frosh Rabb/Brown starting. Cal is 5-2 but lost pair of neutral court games in Vegas to San Diego State/Richmond- this is their first true road game. Cowboys are 3-2 vs D-I teams; best win was over #190 Denver.
Arizona big man Tarczewski (foot) is out here, tough blow for Arizona team that is 6-1, with only loss to Providence by 4- this is their first true road game. Wildcats are shooting 28.1% on arc- they won four of last five games vs Gonzaga, winning by 3 in OT at home LY. Bulldogs are 5-1, beating Wazzu by 7, Washington by 16; pair of Pac-12 opponents.
Ole Miss is 5-2, winning by 13 at Bradley in only road game; Rebels are #17 in experience- their only top 200 win was over Georgia State by 9. UMass is 5-1 with wins over Clemson/Harvard; their only loss was by 21 to Creighton on neutral floor. Minutemen are shooting 40.8% on arc, have #39 eFG% playing at #37 pace. SEC underdogs are 8-7 vs spread.
Providence won its last five games with Rhode Island, four by 8+ points; Friars lost in final of Fullerton tourney to Michigan State, their first loss in eight games- this is their first true road game. URI is 5-2, but lost by 3-23 points in its two top 100 games, to Valpo/Maryland. A-14 favorites are 12-10 vs spread at home; Big East underdogs are 9-9 vs spread.
Wm & Mary lost last two road games by total of five points, at Dayton, Howard; they won season opener at NC State, are shooting 37.7% from arc. Tribe has #32 eFG% defense. Virginia won by 6 at Ohio State in last game, its fifth win in row- they’re using bench a lot (#22). ACC favorites are 19-13 vs spread. CAA road underdogs are 10-4 against the spread.
Richmond never led in 55-50 loss at Northern Iowa LY; they were down 15 in second half. Spiders got waxed at Florida Tuesday after splitting a pair in Vegas last weekend; this is their fifth top 100 game already. UNI on its last five games, including home upset of North Carolina- they are making 43.9% on arc, 56.4% inside arc, have #5 eFG% in country.
Nevada is 5-2, losing at Hawai’i/Fullerton, winning at Pacific in two OTs; Wolf Pack’s best win is over #179 Coastal Carolina. Oregon State is 6-1 with only loss to #30 Valparaiso- they beat Iona by 20. Mountain West road underdogs are 9-6 against spread; Pac-12 home favorites are 19-13; Pac-12 teams are 2-5 vs spread when playing Mountain West team.
Xavier won Orlando tourney last weekend; so far this year, teams that won an 8-team tourney are 0-4 vs spread in their first game after winning tourney- there’s a letdown. Western Kentucky is just 4-3 despite making 44.4% on arc (#8); all their losses are by 8 or less points. Big East home favorites are 12-8 vs spread. C-USA road underdogs are 11-19.
Oral Roberts beat its crosstown rival Tulsa last two years by 6-9 points, after losing three in row to Tulsa before that- ORU lost three of last four in this gym. Tulsa won at Oklahoma State Wednesday, after losing home game to Little Rock before that. ORU is 6-2 but lost by 18-16 in its two top 100 games, to South Carolina/New Mexcio.
This is first road game for Texas A&M squad that lost to Syracuse by 7 in finals at Atlantis- they beat Texas/Gonzaga previous two days. A&M forces turnovers 23.9% of time; they beat Arizona State 72-71 LY, after being down 11 with 11:05 left. ASU won five of last six games; their last three wins were all by 3 or less points- their losses are by 3-5 points.December 5, 2015 at 9:12 am #18353
StatFox Super Situations™ – FoxSheets
CBB | PENNSYLVANIA at GEORGE MASON
Play Against – Home teams as a favorite or pick (GEORGE MASON) after 4 straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers against opponent after 5 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers
98-51 since 1997. ( 65.8% | 41.9 units )December 5, 2015 at 9:13 am #18354
StatFox Super Situations™ – FoxSheets
CBB | KENT ST at CLEVELAND ST
Play Against – A road team vs. the money line (KENT ST) average shooting team (42.5-45%) against a terrible shooting team (<=40%), after a game - allowing a shooting pct. of 55% or higher 53-19 since 1997. ( 73.6% | 38.4 units )December 5, 2015 at 9:13 am #18355
StatFox Super Situations™ – FoxSheets
CBB | NEW MEXICO ST at LONG BEACH ST
Play Against – Home favorites vs. the 1rst half line (LONG BEACH ST) team from a mid-major division 1-A conference against a team from a weak conference, playing only their 3rd game in a week
46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
3-1 this year. ( 75.0% | 1.9 units )December 5, 2015 at 9:57 am #18396
15* Massachusetts -1.5
15* Nevada +10.5December 5, 2015 at 10:07 am #18407
Gold Medal Club Selections
721 Seton Hall
797 Texas A&MDecember 5, 2015 at 10:28 am #18415
Syracuse +5.5 over Georgetown
(System Record: 21-0, won last game)
Overall Record: 21-17
Eastern Michigan +4 over Penn State
Wyoming +6.5 over California
Western Carolina +11 over IllinoisDecember 5, 2015 at 10:32 am #18419
Red Dog Sports
3* Charleston / Citadel – Over 161.5December 5, 2015 at 12:03 pm #18438
PORT PORT SPORTS
Morehead StateDecember 5, 2015 at 12:28 pm #18457
TR System Picks
12/5 12:00pm 721 Seton Hall -5.5 at Rutgers
12/5 10:00pm 795 San Jose St +8.0 at Santa Clara
12/5 8:00pm 821 AR Lit Rock -6.0 at Idaho
12/5 8:00pm 833 N Kentucky +2.0 at E Illinois
12/5 12:00pm 721 Over 143.0 Seton Hall at Rutgers
12/5 3:30pm 745 Under 136.5 Missouri St at Oklahoma St
12/5 3:00pm 739 Under 135.5 California at Wyoming
12/5 8:00pm 779 Over 136.5 UAB at Illinois St
12/5 3:00pm 807 Under 137.0 SIU Edward at Northwestern
12/5 8:00pm 825 Over 131.0 North Dakota at Bradley
12/5 10:00pm 789 Over 137.5 Pepperdine at Cal St Nrdge
12/5 7:00pm 817 Under 141.5 Morehead St at Indiana
12/5 7:00pm 819 Over 149.0 SE Missouri at Memphis
12/5 2:00pm 733 Under 142.0 Creighton at Loyola-Chi
12/5 12:00pm 837 Under 137.0 Binghamton at Michigan St
12/5 12:00pm 725 Over 133.0 E Michigan at Penn State
12/5 4:00pm 757 Over 136.5 Nevada at Oregon St
12/5 3:00pm 775 Under 133.0 Kent State at Cleveland St
12/5 1:00pm 801 Over 132.0 Miami (OH) at IUPUI
12/5 2:00pm 771 Under 131.5 Wm & Mary at Virginia
12/5 12:30pm 727 Over 129.5 Temple at Wisconsin
12/5 10:00pm 793 Under 153.5 Boise State at Portland
12/5 2:00pm 731 Under 143.0 Drexel at La Salle
12/5 8:00pm 821 Over 123.5 AR Lit Rock at IdahoDecember 5, 2015 at 12:40 pm #18464
$500 GONZAGA-7.5December 5, 2015 at 12:54 pm #18474
‘Super Pick’ —- Oklahoma St -13December 5, 2015 at 12:58 pm #18476
1-Unit Play. Take #721 Seton Hall (-5.5)
over Rutgers (Noon, Saturday, Dec. 5)
Rutgers is a terrible team. They scummed out a cover against Wake Forest this week in their game in the ACC-Big Ten Challenge. But that was a garbage cover and I don’t think they are going to get that lucky twice in a row. Seton Hall really should’ve covered against George Washington, so we have one team that shouldn’t have beaten the number in their last game against a team that should’ve.
3-Unit Play. Take #730 Georgetown (-5.5)
over Syracuse (1 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 5)
Pretty simple here: we have an unranked team favored over a ranked team. Period. End of story. There is absolutely no way in hell that Syracuse is one of the best 25 teams in the country. I tip my hat to them for what they did down in the Bahamas. But that was a fluke. I don’t think that Georgetown is very good at all. But they are at home against a team that is teetering. The Orange gave away that game this week against a weak Wisconsin team. I think that one will linger with this group and they simply can’t rely on the 3-point shot as much as they have been. Again, I’m letting the books be my guide here. Georgetown is 3-3 and unranked. Syracuse is 6-1 and ranked. But the Hoyas are the favorite here. Good enough for me.
3-Unit Play. Take #793 Boise State (-6.5)
over Portland (10 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 5)
This one shouldn’t be a game. Portland lost three of its top four scorers from last year’s team. And these weren’t small losses. Kevin Bailey was a four-year starter and Thomas van der Mars was a hero in the post. Portland has just two decent players back from last year’s team – a team that we cashed in on several times – and they are doing yeoman’s work. But they aren’t better than Boise State. This is a decent little Boise team. But they already have four losses on the season – mainly because they have played Arizona and Michigan State three times. Last year Boise won road games at LMU, St. Mary’s, New Mexico and Utah State. They won at UNLV and San Diego State as well. These guys can play outside their home gym. Portland is not going to finish over .500 and they aren’t going to win this game. I don’t think they can stick within the number either.
*7-Unit Play*. Take #806 BYU (-4)
over Weber State (3 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 5)
BYU is going to hammer Weber State here. Normally this would be a game to watch out for. Weber State is a really good team. They are going to win the Big Sky going away and they’ll be in the NCAA Tournament this March. They are really solid and they are going to be amped up for a chance to beat BYU in this in-state rivalry game. But guess what: they aren’t going to beat BYU in this in-state rivalry game. BYU just got its brains beat in by Utah in their own big rivalry spot. Not only that, but starter Nick Emery is suspended for this game because he punched a dude in the face. You know that that all means to me – it means that BYU is going to be focused and pissed off. They aren’t going to have a letdown. And they are going to be twice as focused knowing that they have to make up for the loss of a starter. BYU has the two best players on the floor in Kyle Collinsworth and Chase Fisher and the Cougars are big enough inside to toss Weber State around a bit. This game reminds me of BYU’s game against a really good Belmont team. They won that one by 14 and obliterated the spread in that game. These two teams play every year. And BYU wins every year. There’s no reason for this year to be any different and this game reminds exactly of our win on Pitt over Duquesne yesterday (which should’ve been my biggest play). Here are BYU’s margins of victory in this series over the last decade: 16, 9, 10, 28, 6, 17, 30, 15, 4, and 26. Yeah, there was that one year that they only won by four. But there were also a hell of a lot of 20+ point wins. BYU is going to win this one going away.
4-Unit Play. Take #739 California (-6.5)
over Wyoming (3 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 5)
All I can say is that all those clowns that were able to bet Cal at -2.5 – where this line opened – are lucky bastards. Every one of them. If this number had opened and hung at 2.5 then this would’ve been the first 40-Unit Play in the history of Doc’s Sports. Wyoming sucks. They absolutely suck. And they aren’t going to win this game. I get it: they are tough at home, and this game is at altitude, and they will be all giggly because they are playing a Pac-12 team. But the Cowboys are awful. This is the same team that lost to Montana State and they were run out of the gym by Indiana State. Those two teams are terrible, and they beat Wyoming. The Cowboys have one good player: Josh Adams. And he is only so good. Take Adams away and you know what you have: six sophomores, a freshman, and a junior with a career high of 11 points in one game. The Cowboys stink. Cal has gone 0-3 ATS in its last three games, losing to San Diego State and Richmond. For the purposes of this wager, that’s awesome. Because that little skid has installed doubt in the betting public’s mind about this team. Well let me go ahead and settle that for you: Cal is good. They are really good. For my money they have one of the best backcourts in the country with Ty Wallace, Jordan Mathews and Jabari Bird. And their two freshmen, Jaylen Brown and Ivan Rabb, are Top 25 rated guys. Cal can play. They haven’t played on the road yet. But last year their first two road games were against two decent teams: Fresno State and Nevada. They won both by seven points. This is a better Cal team and they are going to win this game by double digits. Again, there is a reason that this line was bet up four full points immediately after it was opened. The Golden Bears are the play.
2-Unit Play. Take #742 Kansas (-22.5)
over Harvard (3 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 5)
Harvard is dead, it just doesn’t know it yet. Once the Crimson lost point guard Siyani Chambers for the season their fate was sealed. This team was already going to struggle this year. They overachieved and had to scramble to earn the Ivy title and an NCAA Tournament berth last year. But when Chambers blew out his knee that meant that three of their starters and five of their top six guys from last year are gone. Harvard has lost five of six games. And even though they haven’t been blown out yet they also haven’t played anywhere near as hostile as Lawrence. Harvard has played a bunch of regional games against rivals like Providence, UMass, B.C. Holy Cross and Northeastern. Those are edgy games against regional rivals. Now they are far, far away from home and facing a Jayhawks team that absolutely does not screw around. Kansas beat Loyola by 33 on Tuesday without even trying. Their other home game was won by 37. Harvard doesn’t have a chance in hell here. Kansas wins and wins big.
1-Unit Play. FIRST HALF: Take #724 Butler (-8.5)
over Indiana State (Noon)
1-Unit Play. Take #818 Indiana (-12.5)
over Morehead State (7 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 5)
1-Unit Play. Take #736 Purdue (-14)
over New Mexico (2 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 5)
1-Unit Play. Take #744 Gonzaga (-7)
over Arizona (3 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 5)
1-Unit Play. Take #748 Middle Tennessee State (-10.5)
over South Alabama (6 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. Take #756 St. Bonaventure (-5)
over Ohio (4 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 5)
2-Unit Play. Take #758 Oregon State (-9.5)
over Nevada (4 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 5)
2-Unit Play. Take #763 Georgia Tech (-6)
over Tulane (5 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 5)
1-Unit Play. Take #767 Providence (+3)
over Rhode Island (7 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 5)
2-Unit Play. Take #769 South Florida (+19)
over South Carolina (4 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 5)
1-Unit Play. Take #785 Wichita State (-6)
over St. Louis (9 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 5)
1-Unit Play. Take #788 UTEP (-1)
over Texas-Arlington (9 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 5)
2-Unit Play. Take #789 Pepperdine (-7.5)
over CS-Northridge (10 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 5)
1-Unit Play. Take #791 Fresno State (+1.5)
over Cal Poly (10 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 5)
1-Unit Play. Take #801 Miami, OH (+2.5)
over IUPUI (1 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 5)
1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #763 Georgia Tech (-1) AND Take #739 California (-1.5)December 5, 2015 at 1:33 pm #18498
3-Unit Play. #730. Take Georgetown -5.5
over Syracuse (Saturday @ 1pm est)
3-Unit Play. #742. Take Kansas -23
over Harvard (Saturday @ 3:15pm est)
3-Unit Play. #744. Take Gonzaga -8.5
over Arizona (Saturday @ 3:15pm est)
4-Unit Play. #774. Take Richmond -2.5
over Northern Iowa (Saturday @ 6pm est)
3-Unit Play. #797. Take Texas A&M -3
over Arizona State (Saturday @ 10:30pm est)December 5, 2015 at 1:37 pm #18499
727 Temple +8
736 Purdue -14.5
737 Northeastern -4
747 So Alabama +11.5
755 Ohio +6
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