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CBB • Sunday Service Plays • 11/15/15

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    College Basketball

    Notes for Sunday’s games……….

    UL-Monroe has six of top seven players back from 24-14 team that lost CBI title game; they lost by 8 at New Mexico, in OT at Florida, but one player they lost was their best player. Minnesota lost 52% of its scoring from LY’s 18-15 team that went 6-12 in Big 14– they made 12-28 from arc in 76-58 win over UMKC Friday.

    Tex-San Antonio lost opener by 12 at Loyola Chi Friday; Ramblers shot 60% inside arc vs UTSA, which lost three of top four scorers from LY’s 14-16 team (8-10 in C-USA). Clemson is playing home games up road in Greenville this season- their arena is being re-done. Tigers won by 34 in its opener, holding NC Central to 30.4% from floor.

    NC State lost by 15 at home to Wm & Mary Friday, bad loss; Wolfpack were just 6-22 from arc; W&M shot 58% inside arc. State lost one of its key transfers (Henderson) for 6-8 weeks; they’ve got three starters back from 22-14 team. South Alabama has three starters back from LY’s 12-21 team- they beat stiff team n their opener Friday.

    Cal-Davis lost its opener in OT to North Dakota State Friday, missing 16 of 31 FTs (Bison were 4-9); Davis lost 100-83 at Portland in last meeting two years ago. Portland lost three starters from LY’s 17-16 team; that beat Murray State, St Mary’s. Davis was 25-7 LY but lost Hawkins to pro ball, best player in program history.

    LMU played ten guys 11+ minutes Friday, beat Fullerton by 5, forcing 18 turnovers (+8); Lions lost by 8 to Cal-Irvine LY- Anteaters shot 58% inside arc for the game. LMU is trying to play faster. Irvine made NCAA tourney for first time LY; they’ve got three starters back from 21-13 club that features a 7-6 center who dominates the paint defensively.

    UCLA turned ball over 18 times, blew a 13-point lead, lost at home to Monmouth Friday; Bruins also missed 12 FTs, shot 38% inside arc against an inferior team. Cal Poly lost by hoop at UNLV Friday, shooting 7-25 on arc but they did force 19 turnovers (+5). Cal Poly lost by to Cal LY, but 13 to Gonzaga- they’re well-coached but a little less athletic.

    Next three games, all the teams are playing for third day in a row…….

    Northridge played only seven guys two games in row, but they were +11 in second half yesterday, beating Wright State by 7- they were 25-33 on foul line, Wright just 5-9. One of Matadors’ best players doesn’t become eligible until next semester. South Dakota allowed 74.5 ppg in losing first two games by 7-8 points, turning ball over 21.4% of time.

    Northern Illinois won its first two games by 12-7 points, scoring 77.5 ppg; Huskies played nine guys 10+ minutes yesterday. NIU has a solid freshman guard in Wright, also has three starters back from LY’s 14-16 team. Wright State split its first two games, despite making 48% behind arc in two games- this is a true road game for them.

    Milwaukee won its first two games, allowing 61.5 ppg, despite turning ball over 24.3% of time; Panthers has four starters back from LY’s team that could go to postseason because of APR issues. Santa Clara actually lost 55-33 yesterday to a team that runs Princeton offemse, night after losing in double OT, so they’ll be hungry for a win here.

    Iona likes to play fast; they’ve ranked in top 50 in tempo last six years in row. Gaels have four starters back from 26-9 team, are picked to win MAAC. Valparaiso has edge, having already played a game- they were 25-38 on line in 78-64 win over IPFW. Crusaders have all five starters back, are picked to win Horizon.

    North Dakota State won its opener over Cal-Davis in OT Friday; they lost to Texas by 35, Iowa by 31 early LY, but Illinois got upset Friday by North Florida (NF was 17-33 from arc). Bison have four starters back from 23-10 team that made NCAAs. Illinois has been racked by injuries again- they gave up 1.29 ppp Friday night, very bad defense.

    St Joe’s shot 60% inside arc, 28-39 on line in 82-81 home win over rival Drexel Friday; Hawks were up 10 at half, now face Niagara squad that shot 2-18 from arc in 67-50 loss to Old Dominion Friday. Purple Eagles lost seven players from LY’s 8-22 team- they’re supposed to have some decent guards, but didn’t show it Friday.

    Wisconsin lost at home to Western Illinois 69-67 Friday, shooting 37% inside arc– WIU was 7-9 behind arc for game. This was Badgers’ first loss in an opener since Ryan’s first year in Madison. Siena was down 29 at one point to Duke Friday, rallied to cover spread in 92-74 loss, when Blue Devils were just 6-25 from arc.


    StatFox Super Situations™ – FoxSheets

    Play On – Home favorites of 20 or more points (N CAROLINA) after a blowout win by 20 points or more, with four starters returning from last year in the first 5 games of the season
    41-15 since 1997. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units )

    Play On – A road team vs. the money line (COASTAL CAROLINA) after a game where a team made 33% of their shots or worse
    832-1419 since 1997. ( 37.0% | -144.1 units )

    Play Against – Underdogs of 2 to 3.5 points vs. the first half line (WRIGHT ST) in a non-conference game between two teams from mid-major division 1-A conferences, first 5 games of the season, after closing out last season poorly with 4 or more straight losses
    37-13 since 1997. ( 74.0% | 22.7 units )



    Coastal Carolina +6 over Hawaii

    North Dakota State +4.5 over Illinois



    Evansville -19.5 (-110)
    3:00 ET

    Coastal Carolina +5.5 (-110)
    9:30 ET


    Red Dog Sports

    Fairfield at UNC
    4pm EST Sunday
    OVER 143.5

    Both teams played Friday night in their season openers. UNC beat Temple on a neutral floor and now plays low scoring Fairfield on Sunday afternoon at the Dean Dome in Chapel Hill in front of their fans. Fairfield’s opener ended 70-57 (127). Fairfield played many low scoring games last year but exactly one year ago played a 109-59 (168 points) at Duke. UNC is without senior Marcus Paige due to injury but still has a deep team (Berry, Pinson, Britt, Jackson, Johnson, Meeks, Hicks, etc.) and they like to play fast. Hopefully, some players for the visitors (Marcus Gilbert who averaged 15 ppg last year) can make a few shots in a fast paced game and send this over.



    100* UCLA -8






    3* #754 Bucknell -4
    Models show 8-10 point win



    Iona +8



    Cal Poly plus the pts & ML


    Alan Boston

    Minnesota -9
    Cal Northridge +3
    Portland +4



    Santa Clara +4
    1 unit



    2-Unit Play. Take #733 UW-Milwaukee (-3.5) over Santa Clara (5:30 p.m.)

    I’ll keep banging the drum here with Milwaukee. I think they are the best team in this little round-robin mini-tournament and I think that they are going to get the clean sweep today with a win over Santa Clara. The Broncos scored 33 points last night. That’s right: 33. They have one really good player, Jared Brownridge, but he is surrounded by nobodies. There’s no depth here and a third game in three nights is going to bog this team down. Milwaukee is a much more experienced and cohesive team. They run sets very similar to what Wisconsin runs. So they’re not a high-energy team and I don’t think they will be as bothered by the quick turnaround. This team should’ve covered the spread last night but one missed free throw in the final 10 seconds did us in. I can’t see them only going 1-2 ATS in these three games, especially if they win all three. Go with the Panthers here, as I had this game penciled in at -6.5.

    1-Unit Play. Take #746 Evansville (-19.5) over SE Missouri State (3 p.m.)

    Man, is SE Missouri State bad. They lost four starters from a team that woefully underachieved last year and then they went out and got lit up by a Dayton team that is not as good as everyone thinks. They lost that game by 31. Now they play an Evansville team that is probably even better than Dayton. Now, there are some things to make me worry at least a little and that is why this play is rated so low. First, this is Evansville’s first game so they might be a little rusty.

    Second, the last time these guys were on the court they were winning a postseason championship last April. So they may take a bit to get going. But this Evansville team is just a notch below Wichita State in the Missouri Valley and they have all the key guys back from last year. This one should never be in doubt. It will just be a matter of Evansville scoring enough to get ahead of this fat number.

    1-Unit Play. Take #747 Nevada (-9) over Montana State (7 p.m.)

    Seven of Montana’s State’s top nine players are freshmen or first-year JUCO transfers. There is zero cohesion here and this team has already lost two games this weekend, getting bombed by Hawaii (that game wasn’t as close as the final score) and then losing to a D-II school. Now they are playing their third game in three nights against a better-than-people-think Nevada team. Nevada starts three seniors and a junior and they have an absolute rock in the middle in A.J. West to work off. He is a double-double machine and there is no way the schlubs in the post for Montana State are going to be able to stop him. Tired legs will catch up with the Bobcats here and I expect Nevada to win and win big.

    1-Unit Play. 5-POINT TEASER: Take #726 UCLA (-2.5) AND Take #747 Nevada (-4)



    3 Unit Play. Take #739 Over 144.5 – Fairfield at North Carolina (4:00p.m., Sunday November 15)

    The Tar Heels on Friday easily beat Temple Friday night 91-67 and the Owls had no answer for the UNC offense. Fairfield is coming off a loss to Yale on Friday and their defense let Yale score 70 points so how many points will UNC score today. This game flies over and I easily see UNC winning by double-digits. Fairfield is 10-4 O/U in their last 14 road games and the UNC Tar Heels are 4-0 O/U following a SU win.



    3 Unit Play Take #730 Northern Illinois -2.5 over Wright State (4:30pm est):

    Third straight day these two teams play a game so depth and bench play become a huge issue here in this contest. Northern Illinois has the much better bench of these two teams as head coach Mark Montgomery likes to play a lot of guys and has already had great contributions in the first two games from three of his freshman players. Another edge here is the fact this is a home game for NIU which should help them energy wise for a team playing their third straight day in a row. Wright State had a down year last season as they just don’t have the size and it hurts them rebounding wise which could be a big problem here against a Huskies team who owned the boards last game. Take Northern Illinois here.

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