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CBB • Thursday Service Plays • 12/3/15

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  • #17984
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    College Basketball

    Western Michigan is 3-4, losing its true road games by 6 at DePaul, by 4 at UNCW; Broncos are turning ball over 21.3% of time- their best win is over #279 San Diego. James Madison is #43 in experience; they’re 4-3 vs D-I teams, with win at Richmond. Dukes are shooting 38.5% from arc. CAA home favorites are 6-2 vs spread MAC road underdogs are 4-7.

    Delaware is 3-2, with both losses vs top 100 teams; their wins are by 6-1-23 points. Blue Hens are shooting just 28% from arc- they start three sophs and a junior. South Florida is 2-5; six of the seven games were at home; Bulls’ best win is over #101 Albany. USF is turning ball over 21% of time, shooting just 24.8% from arc (6th-worst in US).

    UL-Monroe swept UL-Lafayette LY, 57-55/67-55, after losing 11 of 15 to Cajuns before that; ULM is shooting 17.2% from arc this year, worst in country- they’re 2-2 vs D-I teams, beating Chattanooga by 10 in only home games. ULL lost to Miami/alabama by 16-12 points in its only two D-I games- they have a couple wins against non-D-I teams.

    Tex-Arlington lost in OT at Texas Tuesday; they’ve got wins at Ohio St, Memphis, are 5-2 while grabbing 42.5% of its own missed shots, #5 in country. UTA won 72-59 at North Texas in last meeting three years ago. UNT is 0-4 vs D-I teams after couple of non-D-I wins; they’re turning ball over 24.8% of time (#345). Sun Belt road underdogs are 8-13.

    Kentucky was beating UCLA 41-7 at half LY, pounded Bruins 83-44 as Wildcats made 12-26 on arc. Kentucky is 7-0; its only quality win was 74-63 over Duke on a neutral floor in NYC; Wildcats have #1 eFG% in country, are grabbing 42.2% of its own missed shots- they’re making only 27.6% of shots on arc. UCLA is 4-3 with home loss to Monmouth.

    Colorado State is 5-1 after losing last game in double OT on neutral court to UTEP last game; two of its last three games went two OTs. Rams are #8 team in experience- they start three seniors, are thin. Long Beach State lost by 4 at home to San Diego State Tuesday; 49ers lost last four games vs #15 schedule, their last three were all by 6 or less points.

    UCSB is 2-3, 0-3 vs Pac-12 teams, losing by 18-12-2 points; Gauchos are shooting just 28% from arc, not getting to line much (#337)- they lost by 12 to Oregon State in only home game so far. USC was 5-0 before losing last two games in Orlando to Xavier/Monmouth; Trojans are playing at pace #13; they’ve made 38.5% on arc- this is their first true road game.

    Belmont is 5-3, 1-3 vs top 100 teams, winning at Marquette, losing other three games by 9-5-14 points- they’re making 65.1% of shots inside arc, #1 in country. Valparaiso is #28 in experience; they’ve lost to Oregon, Ball State by 6-3 points in last three games. Crusaders are 2-0 at home vs D-I teams, beating Fort Wayne by 14, Iona by 25.

    SIU-Edwardsville lost last five games since beating Arkansas State in its opener; they lost by 20-16 points at Fort Wayne, Butler. Cougars are making 27.5% on arc (#326), 42.8% inside it (#301). Milwaukee is 1-3 in last four D-I games; this its first D-I home games. Horizon home faves are 2-4 against the spread; OVC road underdogs are 11-17.

    Cal-Riverside is 3-2 vs D-I teams, winning both home games by 14-26 points; Highlanders have #32 eFG% defense; foes are shooting 23.7% on arc against them. Northern Colorado is 0-5 vs D-I teams, allowing average of 92.8 ppg- all their defensive metrics are terrible. Big West home faves are 4-3 against the spread; Big Sky road underdogs are 10-13.

    Cal Poly lost at UNLV/UCLA by total of 7 points, then beat couple of stiffs by 9-13, along with two non-D-I wins. Mustangs beat Fort Wayne by 14 LY, making 9-20 on arc; this is their first D-I home game. FW won five of last six games, losing last game to Navy on neutral floor. Big West home faves are 4-3 against the spread; Summit League road dogs are 15-8.

    #17985
    admin
    Keymaster

    StatFox Super Situations™ – FoxSheets

    CBB | C ARKANSAS at OKLAHOMA
    Play Under – All teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points terrible team – outscored by their opponents by 8+ points/game
    46-18 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
    8-7 this year. ( 53.3% | 0.3 units )

    CBB | USC at UC-SANTA BARBARA
    Play Against – Home teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (UC-SANTA BARBARA) off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team
    133-74 since 1997. ( 64.3% | 52.8 units )

    CBB | LA-LAFAYETTE at LA-MONROE
    Play Under – Road teams against the total excellent foul drawing team – attempting >=28 free throws/game, in December games
    78-38 over the last 5 seasons. ( 67.2% | 36.2 units )
    5-1 this year. ( 83.3% | 3.9 units )

    #18009
    admin
    Keymaster

    DAVE ESSLER

    BEST BET
    723 Long Beach 7.0 (-120)
    vs 724 Colorado St.
    Analysis: I’ll buy the hook here – not sure what the line will do, but simply look at the strength of schedule. LBSU has played:
    BYU – Won
    Seton Hall – Won (in Charleston SC – so they’re road warriors already)
    Virginia (got killed)
    Oklahoma State (twice – both close games)
    San Diego State (lost at home by four)
    That’s brutal. Colorado State is a tough “bet against” because I do love their coaching and typically rebounding, but they haven’t played anyone except for their opener at Northern Iowa, and they’ve got a rivalry game against Colorado this weekend. Yes, they get Antwan Scott back from injury, but they still lose three starters that played big minutes last season – and although they won games (most of their non conference games) last season, they didn’t really blow out any great teams. Give me the points.

    #18012
    admin
    Keymaster

    CRUSHER

    Long Beach State +6.5 over Colorado State

    Louisiana-Lafayette -1 over Louisiana-Monroe

    #18027
    admin
    Keymaster

    INTPICKS

    College Basketball
    #721
    9:00 PM ET
    1 Star
    Kentucky @ UCLA
    Take Kentucky -5

    #18030
    admin
    Keymaster

    PAUL LEINER

    100* USC -2.5

    #18040
    admin
    Keymaster

    H&H Sports

    2* Belmont / Valparaiso – Over 153

    1* Kentucky / UCLA – Over 147

    #18041
    admin
    Keymaster

    OCAL SPORTS

    (3*) Central Arkansas +30

    (3*) Kentucky -5.5

    (3*) Ken @ UCLA – Under 145.5

    (3*) Long Beach State +7

    (3*) LBSU @ COL State – Over 156.5

    #18043
    admin
    Keymaster

    College Basketball Betting Trends – Thurs – Dec, 3

    Kentucky at UCLA, 9:00 ET
    Kentucky: 6-16 ATS after allowing 65 points or less 3 straight games
    UCLA: 9-1 ATS at home after 3 straight games committing 11 or less turnovers

    Central Arkansas at Oklahoma, 8:00 ET
    C Arkansas: 2-4 ATS in non-conference games
    Oklahoma: 6-0 ATS after playing 2 consecutive games as a home favorite

    #18047
    admin
    Keymaster

    STRIKE POINT SPORTS

    5* USC -2

    #18049
    admin
    Keymaster

    INDIAN COWBOY

    7-Unit Play. #735. Take Central Arkansas +31
    over Oklahoma (Thursday @ 8pm est)

    #18050
    admin
    Keymaster

    ROBERT FERRINGO

    2-Unit Play. Take #717 UL-Lafayette (-2)
    over UL-Monroe (8 p.m., Thursday, Dec. 3)

    1-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 143.0
    UL-Lafayette at UL-Monroe (8 p.m., Thursday, Dec. 3)

    1-Unit Play. Take #725 USC (-2)
    over UC-Santa Barbara (10 p.m., Thursday, Dec. 3)

    1-Unit Play. Take #730 UW-Milwaukee (-16)
    over SIU-Edwardsville (7 p.m., Thursday, Dec. 3)

    1-Unit Play. Take #735 Central Arkansas (+30)
    over Oklahoma (8 p.m., Thursday, Dec. 3)

    #18058
    admin
    Keymaster

    JACK JONES

    15* USC -1

    #18071
    admin
    Keymaster

    Scott Delaney

    40 Dimer KENTUCKY WILDCATS in their non-conference clash with the UCLA Bruins.

    As I release this play at Noon eastern, the number I see is Kentucky -6.

    #18075
    admin
    Keymaster

    Chuck O’Brien

    ’20 Dime Play’
    USC

    Line as of 2:35 Eastern: USC -1 1/2

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