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CBB • Thursday Service Plays • 2/25/16

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    College Basketball

    NC-Wilmington won 70-67 at Hofstra Feb 4th, after trailing 38-18 with 2:24 left in first half; Seahawks lead Hofstra by game atop CAA. Pride won last three visits here, in series where visitor won five of last six tilts. UNCW is 12-1 in last 13 games, winning last five at home; they’re 2-5 as home favorites. Hofstra won its last four games, is 4-0 as road underdog this year. CAA home favorites of 5 or less points are 9-12 vs spread.

    Duke won last three games with Florida State by 19-22-3 points, after Seminoles had won four of five in series; FSU is 2-3 in its last five visits here, losing by 3-14-22 points. Seminoles lost four games in row overall, giving up 80.3 ppg- coach Hamilton got his contract extended yesterday. Duke won five of its last six games, winning last three at home by 8-1-7 points. ACC double digit home favorites are 13-11 vs spread.

    Seton Hall won 81-72 at Providence Jan 16, surviving -10 turnover rate (19-9) in beating Friars for just second time in last eight meetings. PC won last three visits here, by 12-5-13 points. Friars are 2-5 in last seven games, losing last three on road by 7-5-11 points. Seton Hall won six of last seven games, losing last home games to Butler. Big East home faves of 6 or less points are 9-11 against the spread.

    Memphis lost seven of last 10 games, are having their worst season in a long time; Tigers lost 80-68 at SMU Jan 30, shooting 32.7% from floor in losing for only second time in last seven series games. SMU split its last eight games, losing three of last four on road, winning at USF by 34. Memphis won its last two home games, is 1-1 as home underdog. AAC home underdogs of 5 or less points are 7-6 vs spread.

    UAB won 81-78 at Marshall Jan 30; Herd is 0-3 vs UAB in conference play, losing by 6-18-3 points. Blazers are 19-2 in last 21 games, 5-2 as home favorites. Marshall scored 93.5 ppg in winning its last four games; they’re 5-2 SU on road, 1-1 as road dog- their two road losses are by 8-4 points, at Charlotte/UTEP- they allowed 108 ppg in those two games. C-USA home favorites of 7 or less points are 17-11 vs spread.

    Ark-Little Rock led 42-14 at half, held on for 68-62 win Jan 23 at Tex-Arlington; road team won four of five series games- Mavericks won by 4,7 in last two visits here. Trojans are 14-2 in last 16 games. 5-2 against spread as home favorites. UTA won four of last five games, is 4-4 SU on road, 1-1 as road underdogs- they won four of last five games, losing last game at home to ULM. Sun Belt home favorites of 7+ points are 17-12.

    Cal won its last five games, four by 12+ points; they’re 5-2 as favorites at home, winning all seven games. Home side won eight of last ten Cal-UCLA games; Bruins lost four of last five visits here, losing by 4-16-2-13 points. UCLA is 2-5 on Pac-12 road, with three losses by 7 points or less- they’re 3-5 in last eight games overall. Pac-12 home favorites of 6+ points are 20-7 vs spread. Cal is stronger since PG Wallace returned.

    Home side won seven of last eight Arizona State-Utah games; ASU lost last four visits here, by 21-5-23-42 points (83-41 LY). Utes are 3-2-1 as home favorites, winning last four overall- they’re 7-2-1 vs spread in last 10 games. Sun Devils are 1-4-1 as road underdogs, losing four of last six games overall- their only win in seven road games was at Wazzu by 12. Pac-12 home favorites of 9+ points are 10-4 against the spread.

    Stanford won its last four games with USC, winning by 21-8 in last two played here; Cardinal lost five of last seven games, is 3-1 as home dogs, 4-3 SU at home in Pac-12. USC lost five of last six road games, three of last four overall; they’re 1-3 as road favorites- their last win outside of LA was New Year’s Day in Pullman, where all the visitors win. Pac-12 home underdogs of 3 or less points are 11-3 vs spread.

    Tennessee Tech lost 81-74 at Morehead State Jan 21 in a foulfest where 76 foul shots were taken. Eagles won five of last six series games, with wins by 26-4 in last two visits here. Morehead won five of its last seven games but is just 2-4 on OVC road. Tech is 6-0 at home in OVC, 3-2 vs spread as a home favorite. Tech shoots 39.6% on arc, best in OVC. OVC home favorites of 3 or less points are 5-8 against the spread.

    UT-Martin beat Tennessee State by 18-17 last two years; Skyhawks are 4-1 as home favorites- they won last seven games overall, covering six of them- they’re 6-1 at home, losing only to Belmont. State won four of its last five games; they’re 4-3 on OVC road. OVC home teams are 10-17 vs spread in games where spread was 3 or less points. TSU won three of last four visits here, losing 100-81 in last visit here two years ago.

    East Tennessee State is 8-1 in SoCon games decided by 6 or less points or in OT; Furman is 1-5 on SoCon road, with four losses by 4 or less points. Home side won all three Furman-ETSU games; Paladins won the first meeting 74-70 Jan 30, shooting 67% inside arc in game they led 39-27 at half. Furman lost 66-59 here LY. SoCon home favorites of 5 or less points are 11-8 vs spread. Buccaneers are just 1-5 as home favorites.

    Idaho State won eight of last ten games, splitting last four on road; they lost 11 games in row vs Montana, which won last five visits here, by 5- 10-24-7-26 points. Bengals won their last five home games, with three by 17+. Montana is tied with Weber State atop Big Sky; they’re 12-2 in last 14 games, 6-1 at home in Big Sky, with only loss to Idaho. Big Sky home underdogs of less than 5 points are 8-9 vs spread. .


    StatFox Super Situations™ – FoxSheets

    Play Over – All teams where the total is between 120 and 129.5 points off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%)
    29-8 since 1997. ( 78.4% | 20.2 units )

    Play Against – Home favorites vs. the money line (ARKANSAS ST) revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more against opponent off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of 6 points or more
    55-63 since 1997. ( 46.6% | 44.3 units )
    2-1 this year. ( 66.7% | 1.2 units )

    Play Under – Road teams against the total an average team (+/- 3.5 PPG differential) against a poor team (-3.5 to -8 PPG differential), after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game
    190-112 since 1997. ( 62.9% | 66.8 units )
    7-2 this year. ( 77.8% | 4.8 units )


    Basketball Crusher

    Western Carolina +1.5 over Wofford
    (System Record: 54-3, won last game)
    Overall Record: 54-61-3

    Western Kentucky +8 over Middle Tennessee

    Elon +1.5 over William & Mary

    Nebraska +1 over Penn State


    Sleepy J

    3* USC-1.5



    100* Providence +4

    100* Duke -9


    How to make money betting college basketball’s NCAA bubble teams
    By Jason Logan

    The word “bubble” is going to start popping in your ear more and more over the next two weeks. For college basketball fans, the bubble means a team is on the cusp of the NCAA tournament – where a big win or bad loss can make the difference come Selection Sunday.

    For basketball bettors, however, bubble teams mean value – either betting on or against them. Programs with uncertain futures this March can provide some extra pop for your college hoops wagers, playing with added motivation to get off the bubble. Or they can be fade bait, crumbling under the weight of the bubble until their tournament hopes burst with a season-ending slump.

    With only a handful of games left for these schools to paint their postseason picture, we break down the best ways to handicap and wager bubble teams in the home stretch of the conference schedule:

    Size up the sked

    There are more than 20 squads currently tagged as “bubble teams” when scouring the mainstream media polls and countless more that could eek their way into one of the 68 NCAA spots available. The first step in finding the value with the bubble is to break down which teams actually have the best shots at impressing the selection committee in the final two weeks.

    Major conferences usually offer teams one or two more games versus ranked rivals, the best way for them to boost their NCAA resume. This is automatic hope for these schools, who know that if they take care of those big-name opponents, they have a chance to go dancing.

    One team currently on the tourney fence is Ohio State, which sits 10-6 in Big Ten play. The Buckeyes, who are 2-8 versus the country’s Top 100, missed a huge opportunity to beef up their NCAA credentials against Michigan State Tuesday, but get another crack at the Spartans in the season finale. Before that, OSU faces No. 8 Iowa this weekend, giving the Buckeyes two chances to impress – and late-season wins hold more weight come Selection Sunday than ones early in the season.

    On the other hand, a program like Butler has already played its conference heavyweights in the Big East and is left with an unimpressive schedule featuring Georgetown, Seton Hall, and Marquette. Even if the Bulldogs win out in those three games, they may not have enough clout to avoid their bubble bursting – outside of an impressive conference tournament. If Butler drops one of those games, it could lose focus knowing an at-large bid to the Big Dance isn’t in the cards.

    Spot bets

    Sizing up situational bets – no matter the sport – is a keen handicapping process. And this approach to wagering holds even more value when it comes to bubble teams down the stretch.

    A team needing a notable win to puff up its March Madness chances can often times get caught looking past an unranked opponent on the weekday and ahead to their ranked foe on the weekend. The classic lookahead spot offers value in going against the bubble team in the game before a big season-defining showdown.

    Syracuse can tighten its hold on a spot among the NCAA field with a win at No. 6 North Carolina on the leap-year February 29. But before the Orange head to Chapel Hill to face the Tar Heels, they host North Carolina State at the Carrier Dome Saturday. The Wolfpack aren’t earning an at-large bid – and know it – and would love to spoil their ACC rivals’ tournament chances, especially with SU looking ahead to the clash with UNC.

    Bubble teams can also be very susceptible to the letdown spot in their pursuit of a postseason place. Teams coming off a matchup with a ranked opponent – win or lose – run the risk of coming down off that high and playing flat in their next outing. Bubble teams losing to a ranked foe feel like their season is shot and teams coming off a win against a big-name opponent can have a false sense of accomplishment.

    Texas Tech is on the bubble in the Big 12 and can either launch itself into the hearts of the selection committee or spoil its postseason hopes with two massive road games with Kansas and West Virginia ahead on the calendar. Following those ranked foes, the Red Raiders wrap conference play at home versus Kansas State. Win or lose against KU and WVU, the date with the Wildcats could be a cookie-cutter letdown look against Texas Tech.


    Not that teams need much extra motivation when resting firm on the bubble in the closing games of the schedule, but having a healthy dose of hometown love never hurts.

    Unlike in pro basketball, where home and away splits are a slight difference in the stats, college basketball teams can be completely different squads when taking their home court compared to playing in the role of visitor. And, more often than not, teams on the NCAA bubble are the ones who display that disparity in venue.

    The Wisconsin Badgers enjoy one of the largest home-court advantages in all the land at the Kohl Center, but unfortunately the Big Ten schedule makers loaded their closing contests with road dates. Wisconsin, which is 12-5 SU in Madison but just 4-4 SU as a visitor, plays three of its final four games away from home, including a Wednesday game at Iowa. Following senior night versus Michigan Sunday, the Badgers are at Minnesota and Purdue the following week.

    On the other side of this angle, a popular mid-major program has a home-heavy slate to close the year. Everyone’s favorite sideline show, Monmouth, is dancing on the bubble for an at-large bid out of the Metro Atlantic. The Hawks have resume wins over Notre Dame, Southern Cal, UCLA and Georgetown, but a lackluster conference effort has them biting their nails about a tourney invite, even more so after to losing to Iona last week. Monmouth does have its final two games at home – versus Rider and Niagara – where it is 8-1 SU on the season.


    February is when a lot of teams hit the wall. Programs depending on freshmen to carry the team into the postseason could be playing with fire as first-year players aren’t used to the long grind of the college season, coupled with travel and school work.

    That’s not to say freshmen won’t step up – that class is now always the most talented crop of players in the country (thanks to the NBA’s one-year rule) and AAU play keeps high school kids busy all year round. However, big-game experience and knowing what it takes to pull out wins against the odds is something that only comes from veteran programs.

    Battling the bubble before is also something basketball bettors should consider. Were this year’s bubble teams in the same position in 2015, and how did they respond? A rotten taste from past Selection Sundays can often be motivation to not get left out again.

    Washington boasts one of the youngest teams in the country with a roster rich in freshmen and sophomores (seven and five respectively). The Huskies are barely clinging to the bubble out of the Pac-12 having snapped a four-game slide with a victory over Stanford, improving to 8-7 in conference play. Washington hit that aforementioned wall face first and has two tough tests at Oregon State and Oregon before finishing up versus Washington State at home. There might not be much left in the tank for Lorenzo Romar’s kids, even with the motivation of being on the bubble.

    As for a team battling the bubble for a second straight year, Pittsburgh is finding life in the ACC a little more difficult than the Big East. The Panthers were in a similar spot in 2014-15, heading into the final two weeks with a shot at an at-large bid. However, they choked and finished the schedule on a three-game losing slide, souring the selection committee and settling for an early exit in both the ACC tournament and NIT.

    This year, Jamie Dixon is suffering from déjà vu with his program currently on the outside looking in at the NCAA tournament, according to many analysis. Pittsburgh has a chance to avoid another late-season swoon and disappointing finish with big home games versus Louisville and Duke, and two road stops at Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech. A win over the Cardinals or Blue Devils may be enough, but the Panthers won’t be taking any chances after the sting of last season.


    Dallas Sports Handicappers

    Indiana Hoosiers -6.5

    Tennessee Martin Skyhawks -1.5

    William & Mary Tribe -1.5

    Tennessee Tech Eagles -2.5



    3* Stanford +2


    Power play wins

    power play of the day
    Georgia southern -6.5


    National Sports

    4* Utah -11

    3* Pacific -2


    College Basketball Betting Trends – Thurs – Feb, 25

    Florida State at Duke, 7:00 ET
    Florida St: 7-1 OVER after playing 2 consecutive games as favorite
    Duke: 8-2 ATS after having won 4 of their last 5

    Providence at Seton Hall, 7:00 ET
    Providence: 12-28 ATS after a game where they made 33% of their shots or worse
    Seton Hall: 10-3 ATS after 2 consecutive conference games

    SMU at Memphis, 7:00 ET
    SMU: 45-22 ATS after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread
    Memphis: 5-14 ATS as an underdog

    Indiana at Illinois, 9:00 ET
    Indiana: 17-33 ATS in road games off 2 or more consecutive home wins
    Illinois: 6-0 ATS after a game giving up 5 or less offensive rebounds

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