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Tuesday’s Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards**Kansas at Baylor**
— The Westgate SuperBook opened Kansas (23-4 straight up, 17-8 against the spread) as a one-point favorite, only to move the number to two within 10 minutes.
— Bill Self’s team has won six in a row over Baylor while going 5-0-1 ATS. KU smashed the Bears by a 102-74 count as a 12-point home favorite back on Jan. 2. The 176 combined points coasted ‘over’ the 146.5-point total. Wayne Seldon Jr. scored a team-high 24 points to go with five rebounds and four assists. Seldon drained 5-of-6 launches from 3-point range. Perry Ellis finished with 17 points and six rebounds, while Devonte’ Graham had 15 points, three steals and four assists without a turnover. Taurean Smith had a team-best 17 points for Baylor.
— Baylor (20-7 SU, 8-12 ATS) has won 15 of its 18 home games, but Scott Drew’s team has limped to an 8-12 spread record in Waco. The Bears have lost at home to Texas, Texas Tech and Oklahoma. If the line holds Tuesday, they will be home underdogs for the first time this year.
— Since dropping an 84-66 decision to the Red Raiders two Saturdays ago, Baylor has captured back-to-back wins vs. Iowa State (100-91) and at Texas (78-64). The Bears raced out to an 18-point halftime lead Saturday in Austin and cruised to the finish line. They took the cash as 5.5-point road underdogs. Johnathan Motley made 12-of-13 shots en route to a 24-point effort for the winners. Prince finished with 17 points and four steals, while Lester Medford had 13 points and three assists.
— Baylor had failed to cover in five straight home games until beating the Cyclones by nine in overtime last Tuesday. Motley tallied 27 points, 10 rebounds and four blocked shots. Medford produced 14 points and nine assists compared to just one turnover, while Prince went for 14 points and nine boards.
— Prince is scoring at a team-high 15.1 points-per-game clip. Rico Gathers averages a double-double (12.2 PPG, 10.0 RPG), while Medford (9.7 PPG) averages team-highs in assists (6.9 APG) and steals (1.9 SPG). Motley (11.5 PPG) has a team-best 33 blocked shots.
— KU owns a 5-3 record both SU and ATS in eight road assignments.
— Kansas is ranked fourth in the nation in 3-point shooting (42.3%), 15th in scoring offense (82.7 PPG) and 14th in field-goal percentage (49.0%).
— Kansas has won seven in a row both SU and ATS, including Saturday’s 72-63 victory at Kansas State as a 4.5-point road ‘chalk.’ Frank Mason led the way with 16 points, two steals and five assists compared to only one turnover. Ellis and Selden were also in double figures with 14 and 12 points, respectively.
— Ellis averages team-highs in scoring (16.5 PPG), rebounding (6.3 RPG) and field-goal percentage (52.2%).
— KU is No. 1 in the RPI Rankings, compiling an 8-3 record against the Top 33 and a 14-3 mark versus the Top 100. The Jayhawks have only one bad loss, falling 86-67 at Oklahoma State on Jan. 19. They own quality road wins at Texas Tech, at Oklahoma and at San Diego State, in addition to neutral-courts scalps of UCLA and Vanderbilt.
— Baylor is No. 22 in the RPI with a 4-7 record against the Top 28 and a 8-7 mark versus the Top 100. The Bears have swept Iowa State and won at Texas Tech and at Texas.
— The ‘over’ is 14-7 overall for Baylor, 8-4 in its home outings. The Bears have watched the ‘over’ hit in five consecutive games and eight of their last 10.
— The ‘under’ is 16-9 overall for KU, 7-1 in its road contests. The Jayhawks have seen the ‘under’ cash at a 5-1 clip in their last six games.
— Tip-off is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.
**Michigan State at Ohio State**
— The Westgate opened Michigan State (22-5 SU, 17-9 ATS) as a six-point road favorite for this Big Ten showdown in Columbus.
— Since losing three straight games in mid-January, Michigan State has ripped off seven straight spread covers while losing outright just once. The Spartans dropped an 82-81 decision at Purdue in overtime on Feb. 9. Nevertheless, they hooked up their betting supporters as three-point road underdogs.
— Michigan State beat Wisconsin by a 69-57 score Thursday at Breslin Center as a 9.5-point home favorite. The Spartans saw a four-game run of ‘overs’ halted when the 126 combined points fell ‘under’ the 135-point tally. Denzel Valentine led the winners with 24 points, 10 assists and seven rebounds. Bryn Forbes added 17 points.
— Tom Izzo’s squad owns a 5-3 record both SU and ATS on the road.
— Valentine is averaging team-highs in scoring (19.7 PPG), assists (7.3 APG) and steals (1.0 SPG).
— Michigan State is No. 16 in the RPI, posting a 7-4 record against the Top 50 and a 9-4 ledger versus the Top 100. The Spartans have neutral-courts wins over Kansas, Providence and Boise State Their best road win is at Michigan, while they have home scalps of Louisville, Florida, Maryland and Indiana.
— Ohio State (18-10 SU, 15-11 ATS) is in dire need of a win here to bolster its shaky resume that has NIT written all over it. Thad Matta’s team is No. 74 in the RPI and has only a pair of Top-100 wins over Michigan (RPI: 54) at home and over Kentucky (RPI: 12) on a neutral floor.
— Ohio State has won four in a row while going 3-1 ATS. The Buckeyes won 65-62 in overtime Saturday at Nebraska as two-point underdogs. JaQuan Lyle paced the winners with 19 points and seven rebounds. Jae’Sean Tate added 15 points and 12 boards, while Marc Loving also had 15 points.
— OSU is 13-4 SU and 10-5 ATS at home. The Buckeyes have won 11 of their last 12 at home, but they are winless (outright) in a pair of games as home underdogs with a 1-1 spread record in those situations.
— The ‘under’ is 14-13 overall for the Buckeyes, 9-7 in their home games. However, the ‘over’ is 4-1 in their last five outings.
— The ‘under’ is 14-12 overall for the Spartans, but they have seen the ‘over’ go 5-3 in their eight road assignments.
— Michigan State has won three of the last four over Ohio State both SU and ATS. The ‘over’ is 3-1 in those four encounters. This is the first of at least two meetings this year.
— ESPN will provide television coverage at 9:00 p.m. Eastern.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
— Tennessee leading scorer Kevin Punter is ‘out’ indefinitely after suffering a stress fracture in his foot. He didn’t play in Saturday’s win over LSU. Punter (22.1 PPG) is 11th in the nation in scoring.
— LSU starting shooting guard Keith Hornsby sustained a hernia in Saturday’s loss at Tennessee. Hornsby, who is averaging 13.1 PPG and shooting 41.5 percent from 3-point land, could be out for the rest of the year.
— Duke is expected to have Matt Jones (ankle) and Derryck Thornton (ankle) for Thursday’s game at home vs. FSU. Thornton (8.0 PPG, 2.5 APG) and Jones (11.2 PPG) were injured in Saturday’s loss at Louisville.
— Missouri has covered the spread in six straight games going into Tuesday’s tilt at Ole Miss. The Rebels were favored by 11.5 points late Monday night. The Tigers are 6-2 ATS as double-digit underdogs this year. Meanwhile, the Rebels are 0-4 ATS as double-digit favorites.
— Ga. Tech has only been favored twice in ACC play, going 0-2 ATS with one outright loss. The Yellow Jackets are two-point home favorites vs. Clemson on Tuesday. The Tigers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine as underdogs. They have limped to a 2-5 spread record in their last seven games that were preceded by eight consecutive covers.
— Miami bounced back from Saturday’s blowout loss at North Carolina by holding off Virginia in Monday’s 64-61 win as a two-point home ‘chalk.’ Davon Reed led the way with a team-high 21 points for the Hurricanes.
— Texas held off a late Kansas State rally to win 71-70 Monday night in Manhattan.
Pointwise Feb 19-25
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4hBzvt06raicmtiUWR1UmhDcGM/view
Playbook Feb 20-26
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B9k6ZRfLv4bCUGJVNWFXRm1rdE0/view
Winning Points thru Feb 24th
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B6sajG-5qqAMQUFyb19HRjMwMGs/view
College Basketball
Davidson (+3) won 60-59 at Rhode Island LY, teams’ first game as A-14 rivals. Wildcats won four of last five games, are 3-2 as home faves, with wins by 13-4-6 points in last three home tilts. URI is 3-4 in last seven games; they’re 1-3 as A-14 road underdogs. A-14 home favorites of 4 or less points are 11-7 vs spread. Davidson is 3-7 vs top 100 teams, but did beat Richmond/St Joe’s in last two games, pretty solid wins.
Buffalo was 0-3 during best player Bearden’s absence; they’ve won five in row with him in lineup- he had 16 points, 6 assists in his return in last game. Buffalo won 76-67 at Kent State Jan 8, winning despite turning it over 20 times (-8). Bulls won last five series games, winning 71-60/80-55 in last two played here. Kent lost its last three road games by 11-27-5 points. MAC home favorites of 5 or less points are 18-13 vs spread.
LSU’s best shooter Hornsby is out; big loss. Tigers lost three of last four games, are 1-3 as SEC road underdogs. LSU beat Arkansas 76-74 Jan 16 at home, despite going 17-31 on line. Tigers won six of last seven games with Arkansas; they lost four of last five visits here, winning 81-78 LY. Hogs are 3-7 in last ten games but covered three of four as an SEC home favorite. SEC home favorites of 3 or less points are 5-2 vs spread.
Alabama had 5-game win streak snapped at home by Miss State in last game; Tide lost 77-61 at home to Kentucky Jan 9, their 11th loss in last 13 series games. Bama lost last five visits here, only one by more than 11 points. Kentucky won four of last five games, is 5-2 as an SEC home favorite. Alabama is 4-2 as an SEC road underdog- they won last three on road. SEC double digit home favorites are 9-9 vs spread.
Florida is 7-3 in last 10 games with Vanderbilt; they lost 60-59 at Vandy Jan 26- Commodores outscored Gators 21-6 on foul line. Vandy lost its last four visits to Swamp, by 4-8-26-3 points. SEC home favorites of 5 or less points are 12-6 vs spread. Florida is 2-3 in ita last five games; its last four were all decided by 6 or less points- they’re 3-4 as home faves. Vanderbilt won five of last seven games; they’re 1-4 in SEC games that were decided by 7 or less points.
Temple won six of last seven games, winning last three road games with terrific win at Houston Sunday; Owls beat Tulsa 83-79 in OT at home Feb 4- Temple was down 12 with 9:55 left, 5 with 0:25 left. Tulsa beat Temple twice LY, by 7-16 points; Hurricane won four of its last five games and six in row at home since losing opener to SMU. AAC home favorites of 7 or less points are 9-11 vs spread.
Clemson beat Georgia Tech 66-52 at home ten days ago, in brickfest that saw teams go combined 3-23 on arc. Tigers are 12-1 in last 13 games vs Tech- they lost 63-52 here LY, its ifrst loss in last five visits to Atlanta. Celmson lost four of last five road games. Jackets won three of last four games, are 3-4 at home in ACC, 0-2 as home favorites. ACC home favorites of 3 or less points are 9-5 against the spread.
Kansas made 11-19 on arc, raced to 28-8 lead and pounded Baylor Jan 2 at home, 102-74, Jayhawks’ 6th straight series win- they won by 1-17 points in last two visits to Waco. Kansas won/covered its last six games, is 3-2 as a Big X road favorite. Big X home favorites of 4 or less points are 5-7 vs spread. Baylor won three of last four games but OT win over Iowa State in last home game was its first in last four home games.
Ball State beat Toledo 87-69 at home Jan 6; Cardinals hit 13-30 on arc, scored 1.32 ppp in snapping 4-game series skid. Ball lost last two visits here, by 11-11 points. Toledo lost last two games, is 3-3 as home fave in MAC games. Cardinals won five of last six games, are 4-1 as MAC road underdogs. Toledo lost last two games, allowing 84 ppg; they won last two at home by 27-45 points. MAC home faves of 8+ points are 6-5.
Michigan State won three of last four games with Ohio State, splitting last four visits here; seven of last nine series games were decided by 4 or less points. Spartans won six of last seven games, are 3-2 as Big 14 road favorites. Buckeyes won last four games, are 6-1 at home in conference, losing by 5 to Maryland. Big 14 home underdogs of 6 or less points are 6-11 vs spread. MSU is 2-2 in last four road games (both losses by 1).
New Mexico lost its last three road games, by 8-5-4 points; they lost in OT at San Diego State, seemed to take something out of them. Lobos are 5-1 in last six games with Colorado State, losing 70-59 here LY. they’re 8-3 in last 11 visits here. Rams lost last three games by 7-13-18 points; they won three of last four road games. Mountain West home underdogs of 4 or less points are 4-7 against the spread.
UNLV lost last four road games, all by 5 or less points or in OT; they’re 3-1 since losing last big man Zimmerman- home side won all four games. Rebels lost last three visits to Boise by 5-1-9 points, losing last two in OT- their last win here was also in OT. Boise lost five of last seven games; they’re 3-4 as home favorites, covering one of last five as favorite overall. Mountain West home favorites of 6+ points are 17-11.
Manhattan lost 70-69 at St Peter’s six nights ago, despite shooting 65% inside arc; its first loss in last 12 series games. Peacocks lost last four in Draddy Gym, by 4-8-15-5 points. Jaspers are 6-2 at home in conference games; they covered seven of last nine games overall. St Peter’s is 5-1 as MAAC road underdog; their last four games were decided by 4 or less points, or in OT. MAAC home favorites of 4 or less points are 7-10.
StatFox Super Situations™ – FoxSheets
CBB | TCU at TEXAS TECH
Play Under – All teams where the total is between 130 and 139.5 points average 3PT shooting team (32-36.5%) against an average 3PT defense (32-36.5%) after 15+ games, after a game – attempting 20+ more free throws than opponent
108-58 since 1997. ( 65.1% | 44.2 units )
5-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 5.0 units )CBB | LSU at ARKANSAS
Play Against – A road team vs. the money line (LSU) after being beaten by the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a marginal losing team
42-10 since 1997. ( 80.8% | 27.0 units )
1-4 this year. ( 20.0% | -3.9 units )CBB | LSU at ARKANSAS
Play On – Road underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (LSU) off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite against opponent off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite
41-15 since 1997. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units )
1-2 this year. ( 33.3% | -1.2 units )
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