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CBB • Tuesday Service Plays • 3/22/16

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    Tuesday’s NIT Tip Sheet
    By Brian Edwards

    **Saint Mary’s at Valparaiso**

    — The Westgate SuperBook opened Valpo (28-6 straight up, 16-14 against the spread) as a five-point favorite with a total 129.5 points. As of late Monday night, however, the Crusaders were favored by 4.5 points with the total up to 131. The Gaels are +175 on the money line (risk $100 to win $175).

    — Valpo is led by Alec Peters, who averages 18.5 points and 8.4 rebounds per game. Peters is shooting at a 50.7 percent clip from the field, making 45.0 percent of his launches from downtown and 85.4 percent of his free throws. Keith Carter (10.2 PPG) has an excellent 148/50 assists-to-turnovers ratio.

    — Valpo is ninth in the nation in scoring defense (62.7 PPG) and it ranks third in the country in field-goal percentage defense (38.4%).

    — Valpo has won 16 of its 17 home games while going 8-6 ATS.

    — Bryce Drew’s club has won back-to-back home games over Texas Southern (84-73) and Florida State (81-69) to get within one game of the NIT semifinals at Madison Square Garden in New York City. Valpo failed to cover against the Tigers as a 14.5-point home ‘chalk.’ Peters scored 28 points and grabbed seven rebounds, while Carter tallied 17 points, five assists, four boards and two steals. Vashil Fernandez nearly recorded a triple-double, finishing with eight points, eight blocked shots and 10 rebounds.

    — Valpo knocked off FSU on Thursday night as a 4.5-point home ‘chalk.’ Peters had 26 points and nine rebounds, while Carter finished with 13 points, six assists and five rebounds. Shane Hammink added 18 points against the Seminoles.

    — Saint Mary’s (29-5 SU, 18-12 ATS) advanced to the NIT quarterfinals by beating Georgia 77-65 as a seven-point home ‘chalk’ Sunday night. The 142 combined points jumped ‘over’ the 134-point total. Emmett Naar had an outstanding game, producing 15 points, four rebounds, four steals and 11 assists compared to just one turnover. Evan Fitzner had 13 points and seven rebounds, while Joe Rahon finished with 13 points, four rebounds and four assists. Dane Pineau had a double-double with 12 points and 11 boards.

    — In its first-round NIT game, Randy Bennett’s squad won a 58-56 decision over New Mexico St. as a 10.5-point home ‘chalk.’ Rahon was the catalyst with 14 points, seven boards and three assists.

    — Saint Mary’s has won 10 of its last 11 games, but it is mired in a 6-12 ATS slump in its last 18 contests. The only outright defeats for the Gaels came to Gonzaga by an 85-75 score in the finals of the WCC Tournament in Las Vegas on March 8. That loss kept them out of the NCAA Tournament.

    — Saint Mary’s has won seven of its 10 road games, going 6-4 ATS.

    — Saint Mary’s has been an underdog four times, going 2-2 ATS with one outright victory.

    — The ‘under’ is 18-11-1 overall for the Gaels, but the ‘over’ is 3-1 in their last four outings. They’ve watched the ‘under’ go 7-2-1 in their 10 road assignments.

    — The ‘over’ has hit in three in a row for the Crusaders and six of their last seven to improve to 16-15 overall. They have seen the ‘over’ go 8-7 in their home outings.

    — Tip-off is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

    **Creighton at BYU**

    — The Westgate opened BYU (25-10 SU, 17-14-1 ATS) as a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 163. Since then, the number for the side hasn’t budged, but the total has been adjusted up to 165.5 points. The Bluejays are +175 on the money line.

    — Dave Rose’s squad has won 16 of 18 home games, going 9-5 ATS.

    — BYU advanced with consecutive home victories over UAB (97-79) and Virginia Tech (80-77). The Cougars took the cash as 9.5-point favorites against the Blazers, while failing to cover as eight-point ‘chalk’ vs. the Hokies. Kyle Collinsworth added to his NCAA career record with his 12th tripe-double against UAB, tallying 19 points, 12 assists and 10 rebounds. Chase Fischer hit seven treys en route to scoring a game-high 27 points. Nick Emery added 22 points, five assists and two steals.

    — In the win over Virginia Tech, BYU was paced by Fischer again with his 24 points, six rebounds and three assists. Collinsworth contributed 18 points, 10 assists, six rebounds and two steals.

    — Collinsworth averages 15.3 points, 8.4 rebounds, 7.6 assists and 1.9 steals per game. Fischer averages 18.3 PPG and drains 37.1 percent of his 3-pointers. Emery (16.2 PPG) makes 38.5 percent from long distance and 84.3 percent at the charity stripe.

    — Creighton (20-14 SU, 20-13 ATS) has lost eight of 12 road games while posting a 7-5 spread record.

    — Creighton owns a 5-6 spread record with two outright wins.

    — Creighton beat Alabama 72-54 as an 8.5-point home favorite in the first round of the NIT. Mo Watson Jr. scored a team-best 20 points, while Khyri Thomas finished with 15 points, eight rebounds and three steals. Geoffrey Groselle added 12 points, 14 rebounds and three blocked shots.

    — In the second round, Creighton cruised to an 87-54 win as a 14.5-point ‘chalk’ over Wagner. Groselle scored 18 points and pulled down nine rebounds. Zach Hanson scored 14 points, while Thomas and James Milliken had 13 and 12 points, respectively.

    — The ‘over’ is 17-15-1 overall for the Cougars, but the ‘under’ is 8-7 in their home contests.

    — The ‘over’ is 18-14-1 overall for the Bluejays, 6-6 in their road outings.

    — ESPN will have the broadcast at 9:00 p.m. Eastern.


    St Mary’s won 10 of last 11 games, losing to Gonzaga in WCC finals in Las Vegas; Gaels won last four true road games- this is their first away game in 24 days. St Mary’s is #331 experience team with lot of kids from Australia- probably not as disappointed to not be in NCAAs. Valpo is #31 in experience; they’ve won 13 of last 15 games. Horizon is 2-1 vs WCC this year; all three games were decided by 6 or less points.

    BYU won eight of last ten games, with both losses to Gonzaga; they’ve scored 87.5 ppg in winning first two NIT games, by 18-3. Cougars are making 38.5% on arc (#24)- they start two seniors. Creighton lost three true road games in row by 13-4-5 points; they’re 3-5 in last eight games overall. Bluejays went 0-3 in non-conference road games, losing by 21-3-13 points at Indiana-Loyola Chi-Oklahoma. This should be a fast game, as in lot of up-and-down play.


    StatFox Super Situations™ – FoxSheets

    Play On – Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (VALPARAISO) off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more, on Tuesday nights
    40-15 over the last 5 seasons. ( 72.7% | 23.5 units )
    7-5 this year. ( 58.3% | 1.5 units )

    Play Against – Any team (ST MARYS-CA) hot team – having won 8 or more of their last 10 games, a top-level team (>=80%) playing a team with a winning record
    825-1190 over the last 5 seasons. ( 40.9% | -65.7 units )
    157-243 this year. ( 39.3% | -40.2 units )

    Play Over – Road teams where the first half total is 75.5 to 80.5 good offensive team – scoring 77+ points/game on the season, after 2 straight wins by 15 points or more
    41-15 since 1997. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units )
    3-3 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.3 units )



    100* BYU -4.5

    100* MLBx – Rockies -125


    Basketball Crusher

    Saint Marys California +4.5 over Valparaiso
    (System Record: 65-3, lost last 3 games)
    Overall Record: 65-76-3

    Creighton +4.5 over BYU



    7-Unit. Play Take #660 Valparaiso -4 over Saint Marys California

    **Wait on that line. Should get better closer to game time according to RF.


    Dave Essler | CBB Sides – Tuesday, Mar 22 2016 7:00PM

    660 Valparaiso -4.0(-120) vs 659 St. Mary’s (Cal.)
    ‘Triple-dime bet’


    sleepy j | CBB Sides

    659 St. Mary’s (Cal.) 5.0 (-110) vs 660 Valparaiso
    ‘single dime bet’


    Locksmith Sports

    Creighton +4.5 -110
    3* 9:00 Eastern

    NCAAB: (1-4 last 5, Season +0.9*)


    We Pick Sports

    NCAAB: (Season -63.8*)

    Saint Mary’s +3.5 (-110)
    7* 7:00 ET



    (10-star or 10-unit)

    (659) Saint Mary’s CA +4/ML +160

    (661) Creighton +5/ML +170

    *Buy half point if necessary.
    *2/3 side, 1/3 ML
    *Always the possibility of a late add.



    4 Unit Play. #660 Take Valparaiso -3.5
    over Saint Mary’s
    (7 pm ESPN)
    This will be an out of body experience for the Gaels since they did not travel east at all during the 2015-2016 college basketball season. That lack of nonconference challenge is what costs them a berth in the NCAA Tournament and now they must settle for the NIT. Sooner or later a one seed will win and cover in this tournament and I believe it will happen tonight. Coach Drew will have his team on high alert after what happened last night and playing at the ARC is always a tough spot. Valpo is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games played on Tuesday.



    7-Unit Play. #660. Take Valparaiso -4
    over St. Mary’s (CA)
    (Tuesday @ 7pm est)
    (You can find -3.5 at Sportsbook, if you wait on this line, this will be similar to Stephen Austin PK over Notre Dame where many, many clients picked up the win but we had to take the loss. It’s ok, client experience and satisfaction si what is important. Just wait on this and you could even get -3 or -2.5 by gametime. We will still grade it at -4).

    Per this selection, with Valparaiso here as they hook up against St. Mary’s. Valparaiso is favored despite St. Mary’s being the higher ranked AP team. Regardless, we like Valpo here as we do not believe St. Mary’s will be as strong on the road. This is a Mary’s team that lost to top 55 BYU on the road by 11 points and to top 135 Pepperdine by 3 points. Note, that St. Mary’s is outside the top 175 when it comes to free throw shooting and out of the top of the 110 when it comes to defense. Valparaiso is a top 45 team who has a top 15 defense which will be the difference maker here. This Valpo team put up 81 on a decent Florida State defense so they should do relatively well here against St. Mary’s defense.

    Valpo is also a top 30 offensive rebounding team and is the same team that finished just 6 points shy of Oregon on the road which is impressive when you look at it at this juncture with Oregon in the Sweet 16. And, this is the same team that beat Iona 83-58 who is also a tourney team as well. Valparaiso given their stifling defense, decent crowd and decent public fade should be able to win by 8-10 points this evening – and also given St. Mary’s struggles on the road as well should factor in as well.



    4-Unit Play. Take #659 St Mary’s +4.5
    over Valpo
    (Tuesday, March 22nd at 7:00 p.m.)
    My spreadsheet has St Mary’s winning this game by a final score of 67-65. The key components in this matchup are overall talent and guard play.

    I love the way St Mary’s matches up with Valpo. St Mary’s has very good guard play and they are lead by Emmett Naar. He can score the basketball and he has a very high basketball IQ. He can penetrate and kick or shoot the outside shot. He will be a tough matchup for the Valpo defenders. Valpo had problems with GB a couple of times this year and St Mary’s is a lot better team than GB. The reason I bring up GB is because St Mary’s and GB do have some similarities. However, St Mary’s has much the better athletes and it will show in tonight’s matchup.

    Take St Mary’s.



    Root Trust Basketball Service

    BYU (-4) over Creighton
    7:00 PM (EDT) — Marriott Center

    ‘No Limit’
    Valparaiso (-4½) over Saint Mary’s
    6:00 PM (EDT) — Athletics-Recreation Center

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