- March 22, 2016 at 6:53 pm #37103
Dave Esler = CBB Sides – Tuesday, Mar 22 2016 7:00PM
#660 Valparaiso -4.0(-120) vs #659 St. Mary’s (Cal.)
2:10PM EST – Yes, I see the St. Mary’s noise a while ago and about the only thing that’s frustrating is not waiting for a better number – but, you guys know I like to get them out ea èrly for those that can/do wait. Perhaps (and I haven’t looked yet) a market mover (a tout who has influence) released St. Mary’s – it’s likely with all that action at once. I don’t care – I did the work and explained my reasoning. If you made me bet the other NIT game, I lean Creighton and may add them, we’ll see. It’s really a matter of Creighton being (IMO) a better team who played better competition all season, and is playing well at the right time.
This may go to -4 on it’s own, but I always want my plays out as early as I can. I like this to -5 but simply won’t take chances I don’t have to. This is the NIT quarter finals, meaning the winner goes to MSG (Madison Square Garden, not mono sodium glutamate) for the Nit Final Four. Valpo has lost exactly one game at home this season, to Wright State when Wright was uber hot, and Wright ended up in the Horizon League Finals. It’s been the more up tempo teams that have given Valpo and kind of trouble at all – beginning in Oregon way back when (in a close game) and ending with their Horizon Tournament exit to Green Bay. St. Mary’s is FAR from quick, in fact, their pace is downright slow. Valpo has had five days’ rest since beating FSU, while the Gaels have had two days rest after beating UGA in California, so now they travel a few time zones on short rest. The other thing we really love here is the experience. Valpo is one of the most experienced teams in the nation and start three Seniors, while St. Mary’s is one of the youngest teams in the nation and one of the shortest benches, so if Valpo gets them in foul trouble at all – there’s yet another issue.
If Valpo has any weakness it’s turning the ball over, but lucky for them that St. Mary’s is near the bottom of the nation in forcing turnovers. St. Mary’s is going to walk (play slow) and shoot three’s – Valpo is used to seeing three-pointers in the Horizon League. From a non-tangible standpoint, one would have to think Valpo is plenty refocused after losing to Green Bay and actually wants to win this thing (as opposed to saying screw it) and of course being veterans they know this is it for them. St. Mary’s quite likely has already advanced further than preseason expectations and also know most of them will be back next season. You guys know I had laying points – but here Valpo is a great FT shooting team that can put it away late if need be, although here’s to hoping it doesn’t come to that.March 22, 2016 at 6:55 pm #37104
3 Units – Valparaiso
2 Units – St Mary’s / Valparaiso – UNDERMarch 22, 2016 at 6:58 pm #37108
Creighton +4.5March 22, 2016 at 6:59 pm #37111
659 St. Mary’s +3.5March 22, 2016 at 7:15 pm #37117
10* 660 Valparaiso -4March 22, 2016 at 8:49 pm #37120
*PT BUY* -130March 22, 2016 at 8:50 pm #37121
JLB SPORTS INFO
BYU -ML -190
* BYU -2.5
(‘1ST HALF’) -110
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