- November 18, 2015 at 10:09 am #15093
Notes for Wednesday’s games……….
Central Florida lost its opener 90-85 at Davidson, rallying from 12 down to take lead with 10:54 left. Knights have three starters back from 12-18 team; they also brought in some new guys, have decent guards. UC-Irvine held LMU to 0.75 ppp in 77-53 win in D-I opener. Anteaters has three starters back from 21-13 eam that almost beat Louisville in first NCAA tilt. Big West road teams are 3-5 vs spread. AAC home teams are 5-2.
Illinois split its first two games, allowing 83.5 ppg to North Florida and No Dakota State, who shot 46.7% from arc. Illini was down 14 early in second half in its win; they start two juniors, two seniors, but aren’t at full strength due to injuries. Providence is very young except for star G Dunn; they won opener over Harvard by 12- Dunn took 25 of their 52 shots from floor. Big East home favorites are 7-4 vs spread.
Wake Forest scored 84 ppg in winning its first two games; they won at Bucknell as 2.5-point dogs Sunday. Deacons shot just 21.9% from arc in first two games- they won last two games with Richmond- their last three series wins were by 2 or less points or in OT. Richmond lost opener to local rival JMU, then made 15-31 in hammering Stetson Sunday. ACC home favorites are 7-4 vs spread; A-14 road underdogs are 1-2.
Toledo beat stiffs by 31 in only game; Rockets lost three starters from a 20-13 team, but brought in six freshmen and are optimistic. Youngstown State never led in 79-70 loss at Kent State in its opener; Penguins start two sophs, two juniors. Toledo won 47 games last two years, have hopes of first NCAA tourney since 1980. Horizon underdogs are 5-3 vs spread, 0-1 at home; MAC favorites are 6-2, 1-1 on road.
Eastern Michigan won last two games with Oakland by 2-12 points; they beat Vermont 70-50 in opener, afer being down 3 at half. EMU starts one senior- they were +12 in turnovers vs Vermont. Oakland might be the last team in America to play; Grizzlies have three starters back from 16-17 team that went 11-5 in Horizon. MAC road underdogs are 0-2 vs spread; Horizon home favorites are 1-2.
Cincinnati scored an uncharacteristic 101.5 ppg in winning first two tilts by 25-64 points, forcing 26 turnovers a game; Bearcats are starting three seniors- they made 11-24 from arc in last game. Bowling Green is on its third coach in three years; they beat a stiff by 17 in opener, starting two juniors, two seniors. AAC teams are 6-2 vs spread, 4-1 if favored. MAC teams are 6-4 vs spread, 0-2 as underdogs.
Kent State made 10-18 from arc in 74-51 win over Southern Illinois LY; Flashes were up 15 at half. Kent never trailed in 79-70 opening win over Youngstown; they had 18 offensive boards. Salukis won first two games, scoring 78.5 ppg despite shooting 21.9% from arc. MVC teams are off to dreadful 3-12 start vs spread this season; MAC teams are 6-4 against the spread, 1-3 on foreign soil.
Arkansas lost all five starters from LY; Razorbacks beat Southern by 18 in its opener (Southern won its next game, at Miss State). Hogs started two juniors, two seniors in opener- they made 8-15 from arc. Akron beat Cleveland State by 12 in opener, then waxed D-III team; Zips have four starters back from LY, but soph PG Robotham is still out. SEC home favorites are 3-4 against the spread.
New Mexico scored 84.5 ppg in winning first two games; sub Williams collapsed on floor during Sunday’s win at New Mexico State, bruised his spinal cord. Lobos start three sophs, two juniors. Loyola beat UTSA by 12 in its opener, forcing 23 turnovers, but committing 21; Ramblers start three seniors, plus their star Doyle, a junior. MVC road dogs are 1-4 vs spread. Mountain West home favorites are 4-2 vs spread.
Belmont outscored Western Kentucky 12-4 over last 2:53 to nip WKU 65-64 LY; they were down 15 early in second half. Belmont won opener at Marquette, then lost at Arizona St by 9 two nights ago; Bruins forced turnovers on 21.6% of possessions in those games- they start two sophs, two juniors. Hilltoppers beat a stiff by 20 in its opener; they lost three starters from 20-12 team. C-USA road underdogs are 2-8 vs spread.
Virginia Tech got upset at home by Alabama State in opener, going 25-40 on foul line in game they led by 11 in first half. Hokies start two sophs, two juniors; ACC home favorites are 7-4 vs spread. Jacksonville State is lost its opener by 6 at Central Michigan, then won pair of non-D-I teams; Gamecocks were outscored 31-13 on foul line vs Chippewas. OVC road underdogs are 5-9 against the spread.
Southern Utah made 10-19 from arc in its opener, losing by 12 at good Utah team; Thunderbirds start two juniors, three seniors. UNLV starts three sophs and a frosh; they trailed Cal Poly at half in opener but won by a hoop, then crushed a stiff team Monday. Big Sky road underdogs are 4-5 vs spread; Mountain West home favorites are 4-2. UNLV is off to Maui after this game; they better not look past this good shooting team.
Saint Louis won its opener by 17 over Hartford; they don’t start a senior. Billikens won last three games with SIU-Edwardsville by 6-27-24 points, they won by 6 LY after leading 55-54 with 5:02 left. Cougars won opener by 9 over Arkansas State; SIU-E only starts one senior. A-14 favorites are 3-6 vs spread; OVC underdogs are 6-9, 1-0 at home. Billikens have four starters back from LY’s 11-21 team; they’re expected to be better.November 18, 2015 at 10:10 am #15094
November Tourney Odds
By VI News
The next two weeks of college basketball will be a busy time for plenty of teams that are traveling to tournaments prior to, during, or after the Thanksgiving holiday. Six major tournaments take place, starting with the Charleston Classic in Charleston, South Carolina and the Puerto Rico Tip-Off. A pair of ACC teams are listed as the favorites with Virginia at -300 (Bet $300 to win $100) to capture the Charleston Classic title and Miami, FL the chalk to win the Puerto Rico Tip-Off.
During the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, there will be a bunch of terrific matchups taking place in college basketball tournaments, including the DirecTV Wooden Legacy in Anaheim, California, the Battle 4 Atlantis, and the AdvoCare Invitational in Orlando, Florida. The Wooden Legacy is a strong at the top with Arizona and Michigan State as the favorites, while Gonzaga, Michigan, and Syracuse are among the clubs participating in the Battle 4 Atlantis.
Below are the latest odds for each of the six major tournaments coming up this month.
Charleston Classic – Odds to Win – November 19-22, 2015
Ole Miss 11/2
Oklahoma St 6/1
Long Beach State 20/1
Seton Hall 20/1
George Mason 40/1
Puerto Rico Tip-Off – Odds to Win – November 19-22, 2015
Miami, FL 9/5
Mississippi St 14/1
Texas Tech 30/1
Missouri State 100/1
Maui Invitational – Odds to Win – November 23-25, 2015
Wake Forest 30/1
St John’s 150/1
DirecTV Wooden Legacy – Odds to Win – November 26-29, 2015
Michigan State 9/5
Boise State 9/2
UC Irvine 15/1
Boston College 100/1
Santa Clara 100/1
Battle 4 Atlantis – Odds to Win – November 25-27, 2015
Texas A&M 9/2
AdvoCare Invitational – Odds to Win – November 26-29, 2015
Notre Dame 2/1
Wichita State 2/1
Iowa 5/1 Dayton 6/1
Monmouth 100/1November 18, 2015 at 10:11 am #15095
StatFox Super Situations™ – FoxSheets
CBB | FAIRFIELD at NORTHWESTERN
Play Under – Road teams where the total is between 130 and 139.5 points bad team from last season who won only 20% to 40% of their games, after 2 or more consecutive losses
46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
CBB | BROWN at NIAGARA
Play Against – Underdogs of +145 to +350 vs. the money line (NIAGARA) off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog, with just two starters returning from last season
524-141 since 1997. ( 78.8% | 165.3 units )
CBB | RICHMOND at WAKE FOREST
Play On – Home favorites vs. the 1rst half line (WAKE FOREST) after allowing 45 points or more in the first half last game against opponent after scoring 95 points or more
60-27 since 1997. ( 69.0% | 30.3 units )November 18, 2015 at 10:12 am #15096
The one bet sportsbooks don’t want you to make
By Jason Logan
Every great and powerful foe has one small weakness. The Gremlins had bright lights, the Wicked Witch of the West had water, and sportsbooks have early-season college basketball totals.
The ‘Over/Under’ lines on NCAA hoops games in the first couple months of the season are the most vulnerable you will find bookmakers at any point in the sports calendar. And they’ll be the first ones to tell you.
“Early (season), middle, late. Honestly, they’re all a nightmare,” Scott Kaminsky, line manager at TheGreek.com, tells Covers of college basketball totals. “The hardest thing for books to beat are totals. It’s a weakness for us all year round. But in the beginnings, the players have the edge.”
It’s a combination of elements that make early college hoops totals the books’ kryptonite. The recent trend of one-and-done players, since the NBA installed its sticky rules, has been a headache for oddsmakers with the constant turnaround of talent at major programs. With rosters switching up year-to-year, it’s tough to base any odds on last year’s production.
Add to those unknowns a massive schedule featuring more than 350 different schools (10 years ago sportsbooks didn’t book small conference games, sticking to the major conferences), coaches trying to find chemistry in their lineups, and the sheer volatility to predicting how a bunch of college kids will perform.
Ed Salmons, an oddsmaker at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook, deals with another curve ball when tackling college basketball totals, pointing to different officiating crews around the country.
“College Hoops totals have always been the hardest thing for sportsbooks,” Salmons tells Covers. “Turnover in team players, referees who work the game and how they officiate it. Each game you have different refs from different conferences who are told how to call fouls or not to call fouls from a particular conference.”
And to make matters worse, the only people betting college basketball at this point in the schedule are the wiseguys, who can smell the blood in the water. In fact, when talking to most sportsbooks, the public really doesn’t have an influence on the NCAAB odds until the NCAA tournament begins in mid-March. That leaves line managers to go toe-to-toe with sharps for more than four months.
“During the regular season, the sharps are probably over 90 percent of your total (NCAAB) handle,” says Salmons.
It’s no wonder, with all those factors having a say and the wolves at the door each night, that sportsbooks protect themselves against college hoops totals with extremely low limits in the early goings. According to the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook, college totals have a limit of $500 until March Madness, when they can go to $1,000 or higher – depending on the game.
“We have embarrassingly low limits on college basketball right now,” admits Kaminsky, whose customer base is almost entirely sharp bettors. “Probably going to be that low until the New Year.”
Oddsmakers also prioritize games, and not just for the ones being played in major conferences. Exposure factors into how much time is spent sharpening the number, so a nationally televised matchup – like that between Kansas and Kentucky in the Champions Classic earlier this month – will get the bulk of the attention due to the appeal it has over another non-conference clash between programs from notable leagues.
“Games with big teams that are constantly on TV and under the nation’s magnifying glass are a lot easier to handle,” says an oddsmaker for SBG Global. “Most of the industry deals totals for TV games only for the majority of the season but that starts changing deeper into the season.”
So, now that you know where the oddsmakers are weakest, you’re probably wondering how to exploit that soft spot. Funny enough, books aren’t shy about telling you.
“There’s a lot that goes into it, and a lot of that is coaching styles,” admits Kaminsky. “You have to know the tempo and the offense they run. It’s the same as other sports. Some coaches like to run up-tempo and others don’t.”
Steve Merril says you can find great value in college basketball totals when you have a mismatch in pace of play: a fast team versus a slow team.
“It is very difficult for oddsmakers to set totals on these games,” Merril says. “If you can accurately predict and handicap which team will be able to dictate the pace and tempo, you can often find value with both the side and total in this type of game.”
Another thing to take advantage of as the college schedule matures is the skewed records and stats produced from a unstable non-conference schedule. Teams with many new pieces may take time to come together or a team with a new coach could struggle to learn the system in the opening games of the year. Those wrinkles tend to iron themselves out by the time conference play tips off in the New Year.
One last tip for betting college hoops Over/Unders is to get the number early. As mentioned, the only ones betting NCAAB totals at this time of the season are the wise guys, who quickly hit a weak number hard and force oddsmakers to dramatically adjust those numbers. College basketball totals are for the most part the latest odds on the board, when compared to other sports, often times not showing up until just hours before game time.
It’s nothing to see a college basketball Over/Under quickly move double digits before tipoff. It’s those types of radical line moves that show just how difficult a job coming up with college basketball totals can be for sportsbooks.
“I will say one thing for them,” Kaminsky laughs. “At least you don’t have to worry about the weather.”November 18, 2015 at 10:20 am #15103
Southern Illinois +2 over Kent State
Southern Utah +15 over UNLVNovember 18, 2015 at 10:45 am #15120
100* UNLV -15November 18, 2015 at 11:26 am #15138
7:00 PM ET
Richmond @ Wake Forest
Take Wake Forest -2November 18, 2015 at 12:52 pm #15141
530 Oakland -7.5November 18, 2015 at 12:57 pm #15142
VEGAS SPORTS INFORMER
7* Under 150.5
Illinois at ProvidenceNovember 18, 2015 at 1:00 pm #15147
7* Take #530 Oakland (-7.5) over Eastern MichiganNovember 18, 2015 at 1:12 pm #15152
Diamond Dog Sports
NC State -13November 18, 2015 at 1:17 pm #15155
3* – 549 Jacksonville State +12November 18, 2015 at 1:43 pm #15157
2* Illinois / Providence
2* Loyola Chicago vs New Mexico
1* Virginia Tech -12November 18, 2015 at 1:49 pm #15159
Game: Wofford Terriers (541) @ North Carolina Tar Heels (542)
Time: Wednesday 11/18 7:00 PM Eastern
Pick: North Carolina -21 (-110)
The talented North Carolina Tar Heels are ripping through non-conference play. Carolina opened the season with a 91-67 win over Temple in the Veterans Classic in Annapolis, then dominated Fairfield, 92-65 in the Smith Center. Carolina is ranked #1 in the nation in both the Associated Press and USA Today coaches’ polls for the second consecutive week. They are without senior All-American Marcus Paige, but showcasing their incredible depth, they’re rolling along even without him. North Carolina is 8-0 ATS against a team with a losing record, plus 7-2 ATS in non-conference games. Wofford won 28 games last season but has lost two key players. They are 0-1 on the year, failing to cover in a loss to Missouri while allowing 83 points. North Carolina dominates this one.November 18, 2015 at 2:45 pm #15172
15* IUPU- Indianapolis +12
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