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CBB • Wednesday Service Plays • 1/13/16

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    Rhode Island won last two games with Saint Louis by 9-5 points; they’ve lost three of last four visits to Olean, losing by 7-6-28 points, are 1-3 in true road games, with only win in OT at Brown. Rams are 2-4 vs teams in top 100, beating Houston/Richmond. Bonnies are 11-3 vs schedule #281; they’re 0-2 vs top 100 teams, losing to Syracuse/Hofstra. A-14 home teams are 3-7 vs spread in games with spread of 6 or less points.

    Clemson won its last three games, getting to line 44 times in upset win vs Louisville Sunday; Tigers lost seven of last eight games with Duke, losing last two by 1-22 points. Duke split last four visits here, winning by 13-7 points. Blue Devils won by 17-16 in only true road games, at BC, Wake Forest- they’ve won last five games, all by 16+ points. ACC home dogs are 6-5 against the spread.

    Cincinnati won its last four games with Houston, with three wins by 15+ points; Cougars lost by 11-13 points in last two visits here. Bearcats are 2-3 in last five games; they struggled to win 54-51 at lowly USF Sunday. Houston is 13-2 vs schedule #349; they’re 1-1 vs top 100 teams, beating LSU in OT, losing at URI by 10. Cougars allowed 54 ppg in winning first three AAC games. AAC home favorites are 6-10 vs spread.

    Northern Iowa won its last three games with Indiana State; underdogs are 3-1 vs spread in last four series games. Panthers won last two visits to Terre Haute by 13-10 points. UNI is 5-6 in its last 11 games after its 5-1 start; Panthers are 2-5 in true road games, winning at North Dakota and George Mason. Indiana State scored 76.3 ppg in winning last three games all by 10+ points. MVC home underdogs are 2-4 vs spread.

    Home side won five of last six Tennessee-Georgia games; Vols lost their last three visits here, by 4-10-3 points. Tennessee allowed 80+ points in last five losses, 69 or less in last four wins. Georgia lost two of last three games; they’re 8-2 at home, losing to Chattanooga/K-State. Dawgs are 3-4 vs top 100 teams- they lost two of last three games overall. SEC single digit home favorites are 6-2 vs spread.

    Villanova won its last six games with Marquette, crushing Eagles 84-47 in Big East tourney LY; Marquette lost its last three visits here by 4-17-18 points. Wildcats won last six games, winning first two Big East home tilts by 31-9 points. Eagles are 12-4 vs schedule #288, winning last two games by total of 7 points; they’ve won at Wisconsin/Providence, lost by 10 at Georgetown. Big East home favorites are 7-8 vs spread.

    Ole Miss won seven of last ten games with LSU, losing last two by 4-10 points; Rebels are 3-4 in last seven visits here. Ole Miss won nine of last ten games, losing only at Kentucky; they won last two games by total of nine points, first games in their new arena. LSU is 0-5 this year in games decided by 6 or less points or in OT; they split last four games, are 8-1 at home, losing to Wake Forest. SEC single digit home favorites are 6-2.

    South Carolina is 15-0, one of two unbeaten teams in country; they lost last three visits to Alabama by 10-10-8 points- home side won last six in this series. Gamecocks won by 6 at Clemson, 12 at Auburn in their only true road games. Alabama is 3-5 vs top 100 teams, losing last two games by 8-16 points, scoring 63.5 ppg. Tide turns ball over 21% of time, #305 in country. SEC home underdogs are 4-4 vs spread.

    Notre Dame won its last three games with Georgia Tech by 3-7-3 points; Tech lost last two visits here, by 3-7ot points. Irish lost two of last three games, are 3-4 vs top 100 teams, with best win over #12 Iowa- they’ve got #5 eFG%, making 40.3% on arc. Tech lost last three true road games by 14-8-5 points; they upset Virginia in last game. ACC home favorites are 6-5 against the spread.

    Oklahoma won last five games with Oklahoma State, winning last two in Stillwater 77-74/64-56. Sooners split two true road games, winning by 3 at Hawai’i, losing in 3OTs at Kansas. Cowboys lost last two games by 17 points each; they’re 0-4 vs top 100 teams, with three losses by 10+ pts. Oklahoma is making 46.4% behind arc, best in country. Big X home dogs are 4-2 against the spread.

    San Diego State is 21-4 in last 25 games with Colorado State, but is 1-3 in last four visits to Ft Collins, as home side won eight of last nine in series. Aztecs shot 14-39 on arc last two games, an improvement- they won last three games by 12-3-15 points after shaky 7-6 start. Rams are 2-1 so far in conference, with three games decided by total of six points- both wins were by a point. Mountain West home underdogs are 3-3 vs spread.

    Oregon State won at Rice/UCSB in mid-November; this is their first true road game since then. Beavers won five of last six games, but all were in Oregon. Colorado lost three of last four games, all to top 50 teams; they’re 1-4 vs top 50 teams, with win over BYU. Buffs won three of last four games with OSU, winning by 6-6-7 points; Beavers lost two of three visits to Boulder. Pac-12 home favorites are 6-4 vs spread.

    UCLA won 10 of last 11 games with USC, winning last six, all by 10 or more points; Trojans lost four of last five visits here, with all four losses by 10+. Bruins split their last six games, winning by 3-7 points over the Arizona schools in their last two home games. USC won nine of last ten games, beating Arizona in four OTs in last game Saturday. Pac-12 home favorites are 6-4 against the spread.


    StatFox Super Situations™ – FoxSheets

    Play On – Underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (BRADLEY) after scoring 65 points or less 5 straight games against opponent after a combined score of 115 points or less
    46-18 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )

    Play Against – All teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (SE MISSOURI ST) a poor offensive team (63-67 PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG) after 15+ games, after allowing 85 points or more
    65-30 since 1997. ( 68.4% | 32.3 units )

    Play Under – All teams where the first half total is 55.5 to 60.5 off 2 consecutive home losses, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team
    41-15 since 1997. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units )
    0-1 this year. ( 0.0% | -1.1 units )



    100* St Bonaventure -1.5

    100* Notre Dame -6.5



    Basketball Crusher
    Houston +8.5
    over Cincinnati
    (System Record: 35-1, lost last 2 games)
    Overall Record: 35-38-2

    Colorado State +3 over San Diego State

    USC +2 over UCLA

    Indiana State PK over Northern Iowa



    College Basketball
    7:00 PM ET
    1 Star
    Rhode Island @ St. Bonaventure
    Take St. Bonaventure -1


    Huddle Up Sports

    ‘High Roller Total’
    Duke / Clemson – Under 142


    Huddle Up Sports

    ‘Guaranteed Lock’
    Marquette +16′

    ‘Best Bets’
    Mississippi +8′
    Alabama +4
    Tennessee +6
    Duquesne -8



    (522) East Carolina +14


    MVP Lock Club

    ‘Lock Of The Day’
    VCU -13.5


    Vegas Si Consensus

    (20* CONSENSUS)
    20* Notre Dame -6.5
    20* Oregon St – under 141

    10* Boise St -4.5




    N. Iowa (-1) at Indiana St. 7:00 ET
    Home standing Sycamores are red hot on a run of 5-1 SU, 6-0 ATS! That’s good for second place in the Valley, leading a 2-2 SU N. Iowa Panther that was expected to challenge for conference superiority. But, shocking road losses at S. Illinois and especially Missouri St. have been sandwiched between home wins of 36 and 33 points for the Panthers. Now looking up at an Indiana St. team they defeated twice last year by 6 and 10 points, expect an outstanding effort from a team who is 116-78 ATS in the role of underdog to (-1). In a return to expected form, expect the Panthers to get the victory tonight against a team they have comfortably handled in the past.

    Tennessee at Georgia (-5-) 7:00 ET
    Each of these teams is 1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS in the SEC and each team comes off a loss, but cover, in their previous game. The situation, however, greatly favors home-standing Georgia. Under 1st year HC Barnes, Tennessee has struggled away from Knoxville, going 0-6 SU in road or neutral games to GA Tech, G. Washington, Nebraska, Gonzaga, Butler and Auburn. Under 7th year HC Fox, his Bulldogs have been at their best in this role, standing 35-18 ATS following a conference loss and 30-14 ATS following any away loss (to Ole Miss (72-71) on Saturday). Look for Georgia to get a cover today on a court where they are 8-2 SU this season!

    Mississippi at LSU (-9) 9:00 ET ESPN
    Ole Miss has just celebrated the opening of their new Pavilion home with a comeback victory vs. Alabama and a nail-biter (72-71) home victory vs. Georgia. Must respect the fact that 10th year Rebel HC Kennedy is 62-44 ATS on the road in his tenure. But, Ole Miss is an imbalanced offensive team with their only reliable scorer, Moody, at 24 PPG. LSU is a far more balanced now that Hornsby has returned to action and Craig Victor (AZ) has now become eligible. They join frosh phenome, Simmons, and hold-overs at guard, Quarterman and Gray, for an explosive offense that averages 82 PPG. With all hands on deck, LSU enters on a 5-2 SU ATS run, including 4-1 SU ATS on this court. Look for the bounce, following their downer at Florida on Saturday after the euphoric win against Kentucky one week ago!

    Oklahoma (-9) at Oklahoma St. 9:00 ET ESPN
    Oklahoma travels from Norman to Stillwater, when Oklahoma meets Oklahoma St. in the renewal of their annual Bedlam rivalry. Last year, these teams met on 3 occasions with Oklahoma winning every game by margins of 17, 8 and 15 points. Most outstanding scoring note from that game was that the Sooners held the Cowboys to an average of only 57 PPG on offense. With the triple revenge a motivator, the reality that Oklahoma could well ascend to the No. 1 spot after the Jayhawks lost to WVU on Tuesday night, the Cowboys strong home boards of Gallagher-Iba Arena and with the Cowboys off consecutive road losses to Baylor and WVU, this has all the makings for more Bedlam.

    Let’s begin this analysis of the Sooners by my admission that I believe Oklahoma is the best team in the country and will prove that to be true in early April. They have a great coach in Lon Kruger who has taken no fewer than 4 teams (UNLV, Illinois, Florida and Oklahoma) to the Big Dance. This year is his most talented contingent in Norman . It is led by the nation’s best player in Buddy Hield, who is a lock-down defender and an outstanding scorer, both from behind the arc and in drives to the basket. He is complemented in the backcourt by PG Woodard, a prime-time lead guard who lives for the big moment, along with Isaiah Cousins, who is still seeking to reach his potential this season. The interior is manned by Ryan Spangler, a 3-sport athlete who dominates the glass and the lane. Quickly emerging interior force, Khadeem Lattin, rounds out what is an outstanding offensive team. On Monday, February 4th, Oklahoma traveled to Kansas, where they absorbed their only defeat of the season (109-106) in a triple OT thriller that is thought by many to be the best college basketball game of the season. Oklahoma had a letdown, only at the price, when they cruised to an (86-76) victory over Kansas St. at home on Saturday. You will note that my soon to be published article on the “Smooth Operators” of college basketball (best offensive teams in the land) that Oklahoma is right at the top of the list. They have scored 83 or more points in 12/14 games, average 88 PPG on 48% shooting with an astounding knockdown rate of 46% from the arc. But after a 6-1 ATS start, the line may have caught up to them a bit, as they are just 1-4 ATS since late December.

    Oklahoma St. at 9-6 SU, 5-8 ATS will be playing this as their “Super Bowl.” They will need to play a great team game, as they continue to miss leading scorer, Phil Forte, who may be out for the entire season. Aside the motive of triple revenge and the Bedlam rivalry against a possible No. 1 team, the Cowboys have the ultra-important ally of their strong home court. For, it is a the Gallagher-Iba Arena where Oklahoma St. has gone 46-11 SU 3+Y, including 6-2 SU this season with their most recent victory coming by a count of (69-48) as 5 point home chalk against TCU. That was followed by road losses by powerful Baylor and WVU, setting up this triple revenge scenario off back to back losses.

    Lots of respect for Sooners HC Kruger, who is among the best road coaches in the country with a long-term record of 91-63 ATS! But, the situation described above, along with this bloated price tag, makes all the value accrue to the home team tonight.

    TCU at Baylor (-12) 8:15 ET ESPN
    The TCU Horned Frogs travel from Ft. Worth to Waco, TX for their Big 12 rivalry with the Baylor Bears. These two teams met twice last year with the Bears escaping with a (66-59) victory at TCU, before blasting the Horned Frogs (77-57) on this court. Expect more of the same from the Bears tonight, as they are playing their best basketball of the year.

    After getting walloped at Kansas in their Big 12 opener (102-94), only other loses at Oregon and Texas A&M, the Bears returned home to blast Oklahoma St. (79-62). They then followed that up by playing their best game of the year in a (94-89) upset at Iowa St. on Saturday. In my soon to be published article on CBKB’s “Smooth Operators,” you will see that the Bears are an integral part of the list. The Bears average 80 PPG on 46% shooting with 37% from the arc and a foul shooting percentage of 76%, which is essential in extending leads at this price range. Note also, the outstanding complementary numbers for Scott Drew’s boys in his 13th year at Waco. Their combined rebound margin, assist/TO margin and net TO margin is among the best in the nation at +19.1. Those numbers are indicators of true offensive success. Returning seniors, Gathers and Prince, lead a strong interior game, while the backcourt is handled by committee.

    Tonight’s visitor is again ticketed for the basement of the Big 12. That does not mean the Horned Frogs are a bad team. It simply means they play in the deepest conference in the nation. Fourth year HC Trent Johnson appreciates the improved work ethic of his Frogs and the fact they have played outstanding ball on their home court this year, where they have lost by only 5 to SMU, only 8 to WVU and on Saturday, recorded a huge home underdog upset of Texas (58-57). In the role of road underdog though, the “Frogs as dogs” have struggled. With road losses in their 2 games of (69-48) to Oklahoma St. and (92-67) to Washington, neither of whom is as good as this Baylor team.

    Each of these teams hold notable upsets in their previous game. In such a case, when backed by home/road dichotomy such as we have here, I nearly always favor the dominant home team to continue their momentum against a road dog, who must look to duplicate consecutive huge emotional games against a superior opponent.



    5* Houston Cougars +10

    4* St. Bonaventure Bonnies ML (-117)

    3* North Dakota State Bison -7.5

    2* VA Commonwealth Rams -13.5



    LSU -10 Over Mississippi


    Anthony Redd

    50 Dime St Johns Red Storm against the Georgetown Hoyas.
    As I release this play at 5:35am Pacific here in Vegas, the line on St Johns is +8 1/2 in Vegas and offshore.

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