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CBB • Wednesday Service Plays • 3/23/16

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    College Basketball Betting Trends – Wed – Mar, 23

    Florida at George Washington, 7:00 ET
    Florida: 9-20 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins
    George W: 31-15 ATS at home after scoring 75 pts or more 2 straight games

    Georgia Tech at San Diego State, 9:00 ET
    Georgia Tech: 14-6 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in a week
    San Diego St: 0-6 ATS after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more

    Ball State at Columbia, 7:00 ET
    Ball St: 0-6 ATS after allowing 80 points or more
    Columbia: 51-31 ATS in non-conference games

    Grand Canyon at Coastal Carolina, 7:00 ET
    Grand Canyon: 1-3 ATS in a post-season tournament game
    Coastal Carolina: 10-2 ATS off a home win

    Cal Irvine at UL Lafayette, 8:15 ET
    Cal Irvine: 18-36 ATS in road games after scoring 80 points or more
    UL Lafayette: 10-2 ATS after having won 3 of their last 4 games

    Morehead State at Ohio, 7:00 ET
    Morehead St: 6-0 ATS when the total is 150 to 159.5
    Ohio: 0-6 ATS after 3 straight games committing 11 or less turnovers

    Vermont at Nevada, 10:00 ET
    Vermont: 2-10 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins
    Nevada: 11-2 ATS after a game where they were called for 10 or less fouls


    Wednesday’s NIT Tips
    March 22, 2016

    This year’s National Invitational Tournament continues on Wednesday night with a pair of 4-2 matchups in the quarterfinals. First at 7 p.m. (ET), the No. 2 Florida Gators will pay a visit to our Nation’s Capital to square-off against the No. 4 George Washington Colonials in Region 4. This will be followed by a Region 3 matchup between the No. 4 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets and the No. 2 San Diego State Aztecs in a 9 p.m. tip at Viejas Arena in San Diego.

    No. 2 Florida Gators at No. 4 George Washington Colonials (ESPN2, 7 p.m. ET)

    Opening Odds: George Washington -2, 147.5

    Betting Matchup

    The Gators started this tournament with a lopsided 97-68 victory over North Florida as 7 ½-point favorites before knocking-off Ohio State this past Sunday as slight 1 ½-point favorites with the total going OVER in both contests. Florida is now 4-1 both straight-up and against the spread in its last five outings and the total has gone OVER in seven of their last eight games.

    Florida has had to journey on the road in this year’s NIT in light of current renovations at the O’Connell Center, but that has not stopped the Gators from cruising into the quarterfinals. They also lost their starting center sophomore John Egbunu the rest of the way due to thumb surgery, but that did not hurt their cause against the Buckeyes. Florida is averaging 73.6 points per game, but it has exceeded that total in six of its last eight games.

    The Colonials stunned the No. 1 Monmouth Hawks 87-71 on Monday night as two-point road underdogs to earn an unexpected spot in Wednesday’s game. This followed a tight 82-80 victory against Hofstra in their NIT opener as six-point favorites at home. They are now 2-5 ATS in their last seven contests and the total has gone OVER in their last five games.

    Junior forward Tyler Cavanaugh (16.7 PPG) and senior guard Patricio Garino (14.2 PPG) have been George Washington’s top two scorers all season long and they combined for 49 points in Monday’s win. Four of the team’s five starters scored in double figures and the Colonials shot 51.9 percent from the field while going 9-for-19 from three-point range.

    Betting Trends

    — The Gators are 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 games after failing to cover in their previous outing and they are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games against a team with a SU winning record. The total has stayed UNDER in their last four games against the Atlantic 10.

    — The Colonials are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games against the SEC and they are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against a team with a SU winning record. The total has stayed UNDER in 26 of their last 26 nonconference games.

    — This will be the first meeting between these two teams in recent memory.

    Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at San Diego State Aztecs (ESPN2, 9 p.m. ET)

    Opening Odds: San Diego State -5, 133.5

    Betting Matchup

    Georgia Tech has made the most of its NIT bid with Monday’s big 83-66 upset of South Carolina as a four-point road underdog. This followed a convincing 81-62 victory against Houston as a four-point home favorite in the tournament opener. The Yellow Jackets are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games while going a profitable 7-3 ATS. The total went OVER 146 ½ point against the Gamecocks after staying UNDER in four of their previous five games.

    The Yellow Jackets were able to open-up a 14-point lead over favored South Carolina at the half and they kept the pressure on until the final buzzer. All five starters scored at least 10 points and the team shot 50.8 percent from the field after hitting 50 percent of its 22 three-point attempts. Georgia Tech was ranked 11th in the ACC in scoring this season with 73.2 PPG, but it has now scored more than 80 points in each of its last three wins.

    The Aztecs were the toast of the Mountain West in the regular season at 16-2 SU in conference play, but a costly 68-63 loss to Fresno State as four-point favorites in the MWC Tournament sent them the NIT route in the postseason. They are off to a solid 2-0 start both SU and ATS including Monday’s impressive 93-78 victory against Washington as five-point home favorites. The total has gone OVER in five of their last seven games.

    San Diego State was actually ranked last in the MWC in scoring with just 68.1 PPG, but it came into this Tournament ranked fourth in the nation in points allowed (60.3). The 78 points given-up to the Huskies was the first time an opposing team crossed the 70-point mark since an early February victory over New Mexico. The Aztecs leading scorer this season has been sophomore guard Trey Kell with 12.6 PPG and he put-up 16 points in Monday’s win.

    Betting Trends

    — The Yellow Jackets are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 road games and they have covered in 14 of their last 18 Wednesday games. The total has stayed UNDER in four of their last five nonconference games.

    — The Aztecs are 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 games following an ATS win, but they have covered in five of their last seven games against a team with a SU winning record. The total has stayed UNDER in five of their last seven games outside their conference.

    — This will be the first meeting between these two teams in recent memory.



    NIT action!!!
    #775 Florida Gators +2 (7:00 edt) ESPN2
    I am not buying the Colonials as a favorite here. They are 8-7 ATS at home so not outstandingly good and they are horrible in their history against the SEC covering only 1 of their last 8 against SEC teams. Florida is 11-8 ATS on the road and they have covered 4 of their last 5 games so they are on a nice roll. Take the Gators and the points here.


    NCAA tournament

    Under Bill Self, Kansas is 5-2 in regional semifinals, 3-4 vs spread (they were favored in all 7); Jayhawks won last 16 games overall, they lost by 6 to Michigan St on neutral floor in November, their only Big 14 game this year. Maryland beat #12-13 seeds last week, after a 3-5 skid coming into NCAAs; Terps are 13-1 outside Big 14, with loss at North Carolina by 8. Big X teams are 5-2 vs Big 14 teams this year, 2-2 vs spread when favored. Last 10 years, #1 seeds are 16-19 vs spread in this round. Terps are #46 defending arc; Kansas is shooting 41.9% on arc (#4).

    ACC teams are 12-1 in NCAAs (Pitt only loss); Miami beat Butler by 10 in its only Big East game. Villanova is in Sweet 16 for first time since ’09; they beat Ga Tech, lost to Virginia in its two ACC games. Wildcats cruised in both games LW, leading Iowa by 25 at the half Sunday. Miami is 14-4 in its last 18 games; Villanova is 14-2 in its last 16. ACC teams are 6-5 vs Big East teams this year; favorites are 8-3 vs spread in the 11 games. Since ’05, when 2-3 seeds meet in regional semis, underdog is 8-6 vs spread. Hurricanes are #32 in experience, Villanova is #182.

    This is third time in 20 years Duke is lower-seeded team; they lost by 4 to Kansas is ’03 regional semi, by 22 to Louisville in 2013 regional final. Over last 30 years, Duke is 7-3 vs spread as a dog- they’re 4-6 in its last ten regional semifinal games. Bue Devils led Yale by 27, had it cut to 3 in last game. Oregon won its last ten games, allowing 57.7 ppg in last three. Ducks scored 76+ points in nine of last ten games. ACC teams are 4-2 vs Pac-12 teams this year, but were favored in five of six games. Last 10 years, #1 seeds are 16-19 against the spread in this round.

    Texas A&M came back from dead Sunday, rallying from 12 down with 0:35 left. Aggies are 3-0 vs Big X teams this year, beating Texas, Baylor, K-State; they’re 10-1 in last 11 games overall. A&M starts three seniors; House is NBA-level talent with ball. Oklahoma is 13-0 outside the Big X this year; Sooners start three seniors, have four kids who’ve started 100+ games together. Oklahoma beat A&M 64-52 in last meeting, two years ago. Big X teams are 12-7 vs SEC teams this year, 6-4 vs spread when favored. Since ’05, when 2-3 seeds meet in regional semis, dogs are 8-6.

    Other tournaments
    We’ll do what we can with these minor tournaments; impossible to determine how interested players on these teams will be……..

    Florida’s gym is being re-done;
    Gators won first two NIT games on the road- they’ve won four of last five games overall, losing to A&M by 6 in SEC semis. Gators beat St Joe’s by 11, Richmond by 20 in two A-14 games. George Washington played four starters 33:00+ on Monday at Monmouth (Florida played Sunday); they beat Tennessee by 3 in only SEC game. A-14 teams are 5-3 vs SEC squads this spring.

    San Diego State had 12,400+ fans for its win Monday; Aztecs are 20-3 in last 23 games, 10-1 in last 11 at home (lost to Boise St). Georgia Tech won easy at South Carolina Monday (two guys used more than 25:00); they’ve won eight of last ten games. Aztecs used only two guys more than 26:00 Monday- they’ve got #1 eFG% defense in country. Yellow Jackets are 12-3 outside the ACC this season.

    Morehead State won eight of last nine games, scoring 83 ppg in winning first two games in this tourney; only two Eagles played more than 27:00 in their 67-possession win Monday. Ohio beat Tennessee State by 8 in its only OVC game; Bobcats won by 4-5 in first two tourney tilts, both at home. Ohio is an offensive team; Morehead State pressure on defense. Morehead is #72 experienced team; Ohio U is #289.

    Vermont stays out west after winning at Seattle Monday; Catamounts are 9-1 in last 10 games, after a 14-12 start- they used five guys 30:00+ in Seattle Monday- they won three of last four true road games. Nevada scored 82 ppg in winning first two tourney games; Wolf Pack used only seven guys Monday; star Coleman returned with 15:00 off bench- three Nevada guys played 34:00+. 6-8 Oliver will be a handful for Vermont.

    Ball State needed OT in both its first two tourney games, beating pair of OVC schools; Cardinals (4-0 in OT this year) were down 11 with 2:27 left Sunday, rallied at home to win/advance here, vs Columbia squad that had bye in this event, beat Norfolk State a week ago to get here, so they are much more rested here. Lions start four seniors; Ball State starts two sophomores and a freshman.

    Grand Canyon won eight of last ten games; Antelopes weren’t eligible for WAC tourney- they’re thrilled just to be playing- they’re 2-3 in last five true road games. Coastal Carolina won 12 of last 15 games after 8-8 start; Chanticleers won last four home games since losing to High Point by 68-67 Feb 11. Cosatal is #28 experience team; they start four juniors and senior. Grand Canyon, looking for future, starts three sophs.

    Irvine’s 7-6 center Ndiaye is probable here; Anteaters won five of last six games, winning last game in OT at North Dakota- they’ve won last four true road games. UL-Lafayette won four of last five games, winning at Furman to get here; Cajuns scored 88 ppg in first two tournament tilts. Both teams start three seniors; this should be a good game. .


    StatFox Super Situations™ – FoxSheets

    Play On – Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (NEVADA) in a game involving two average defensive teams (67-74 PPG) after 15+ games, after scoring 85 points or more
    62-29 over the last 5 seasons. ( 68.1% | 30.1 units )
    19-13 this year. ( 59.4% | 4.7 units )

    Play On – A road team vs. the money line (GEORGIA TECH) off an upset win by 15 points or more as an underdog, in March games
    31-27 since 1997. ( 53.4% | 30.0 units )
    2-3 this year. ( 40.0% | 0.8 units )

    Play Under – Road teams against the total off a close home win by 3 points or less, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%)
    76-37 over the last 5 seasons. ( 67.3% | 35.3 units )
    18-15 this year. ( 54.5% | 1.5 units )



    100* Ball State +7.5

    100* Over 148 – Florida / George Washington


    Basketball Crusher

    Georgia Tech +5 over San Diego State
    (System Record: 65-4, lost last 4 games)
    Overall Record: 65-77-3

    George Washington -135 over Florida

    Grand Canyon +3.5 over Coastal Carolina

    Ohio + Morehead State – OVER 153



    Play Columbia -7.5 over Ball State (TOP NCAA PLAY)–VIP PLAY
    Ball State has lost 56 of the last 91 games against the spread when the total posted is between 130 and 139.5 points and they have lost 42 of the last 65 games against the spread when playing in the month of March. Ball State has lost 88 of the last 158 non-conference games against the spread and they have lost 10 of the last 13 games against the spread after allowing 80 points or more in their last game.

    ‘Extra NCAA Basketball Plays’

    Play Coastal Carolina -3.5 over Grand Canyon

    Play Lafayette -2.5 over Irvine




    10000* Play San Diego State -5 over Georgia Tech
    San Diego State has covered the spread in 38 of the last 67 games when playing as a home favorite of six points or less and they have covered the spread in 14 of the last 23 games when playing in the month of March. San Diego State has covered the spread in 10 of the last 15 games when playing with one day of rest and they have covered the spread in 99 of the last 176 games after having won three of the last four games.

    500* Play George Washington -1.5 over Florida

    500* Play Columbia -7.5 over Ball State




    5000* Play George Washington -1.5 over Florida
    George Washington has won 28 of the last 33 games whenplaying as a home favorite and they have won 26 of the last 38 games coming offan OVER the total in their last game. George Washington has won 86 of the last 148 games when playing on aWednesday and they have won 49 of the last 80 games when playing with one dayof rest.

    5000* Play San Diego State -5 over Georgia Tech
    San Diego State has won 69 of the last 81 games whenplaying as a favorite and they have won 33 of the last 45 non-conferencegames. San Diego State has won 46 of thelast 52 home games and they have won 48 of the last 58 games when playing their2nd game in a week.

    5000* Play Columbia -7.5 over Ball State
    Ball State has lost 51 of the last 63 games when playingas an underdog and they have lost 37 of the last 44 road games. Ball State has lost 15 of the last 18 gameswhen playing on a Wednesday and they have lost 30 of the last 41 games comingoff an OVER the total in their last game.



    Play Nevada -3.5 over Vermont–Top Play (100 Units)
    Nevada has won 40 of the last 64 games coming off a winin their last game and they have won 82 of the last 126 games after allowing 55points or less in their last game. Nevada has won 87 of the last 112 games when playing on a Wednesday andthey have won 40 of the last 64 games
    when playing in the month of March.

    Play George Washington -1.5 over Florida—Top Play (50Units)

    Play Columbia -7.5 over Ball State—Top Play (50 Units)




    Coast Carolina-3.5
    GT +5


    Power Play Wins

    OHIO -3.5

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