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CBB ♦ ''Final Four'' ♦ Saturday • 4/2/16

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  • #38579
    Avataradmin
    Keymaster

    SPARTAN

    FINAL FOUR TRIPLE BOMBSHELL!
    Oklahoma

    #38613
    Avataradmin
    Keymaster

    WAYNE ROOT

    Root Trust Basketball Service

    ”Perfect Play”
    Syracuse (+9½) over North Carolina
    7:49 PM (EDT) — NRG Stadium
    Perfect Play — Syracuse
    Here”s your first bulletin. Expect North Carolina to have a tougher time against the upstart Orange than any game they”ve played thus far. Malachi Richardson is an amazing freshman guard causing havoc. His play is inspiring the rest of the Cuse players. North Carolina swept Syracuse in the regular season, but it”s difficult to beat a good team three times in a season. And Syracuse has hit its stride. In their last meeting on Feb. 29, a 75-70 loss, the Orange showed glimpses of how they could beat North Carolina. Full-court pressure propelled the Orange in wins against Gonzaga and Virginia, and the signature 2-3 zone has never looked better. Their players arms are very long and make shots very difficult (they are measured and recruited that way). The Tar Heels are not the greatest shooting team from 3-point land and with hands and arms in your face, their success will not get better. Syracuse has turned into one of our favorite ”underdog” teams in the tournament. The Orange have parlayed excellent defense (56 PPG) into a winning effort as they”ve slid by quality team after quality team. Syracuse”s defense creates their offense and they could easily upset Carolina

    ”Pinnacle”
    Villanova (-2) over Oklahoma
    5:09 PM (EDT) — NRG Stadium
    Pinnacle — Villanova
    ***Final 4 Game of Year The Villanova Wildcats are fresh off a stunning 64-59 upset over tournament-favorite Kansas, which only serves as reason to believe leading scorers Josh Hart, Kris Kenkins, and Ryan Arcidiacono can advance to the title game. Coach Jay Wright has a few weapons to throw at a Sooners defense that’s surrendered 70 points a contest during the tournament; like 78 ppg. Defensively the Wildcats are excellent, allowing only 63.5 points per game, ranking them 15th overall, and hold opponents to 40.5 % shooting. The Sooners are a jump shooting team and that could play into the Wildcats defense pressure. On offense, the Wildcats are balanced and wear teams down mentally and physically by moving the ball and finding the open man. Nova is a team that plays tight, disciplined defense, and that allows the Wildcats to control the tempo. Buddy Hield for Oklahoma, the player of the year, will score 30+ points but the Wildcats have more scoring punch to overcome his offense. There are no weak links on this Nova squad.

    #38668
    Avataradmin
    Keymaster

    NEWSLETTER College Basketball Prediction From Alan Harris

    Take ‘Over’ 145.0 Syracuse vs. North Carolina (8:45 p.m., Saturday, April 2)
    Two teams that have been trending to the over will meet when the Syracuse Orange take on the North Carolina Tar Heels at NRG Stadium in Houston, TX in the second of the two Final Four games taking place on Saturday night. The Orange have posted a 4-1 record to the over in their last five games where they were listed as an underdog of 7-12 points and they have gone an excellent 5-1 to the over in their last six neutral-site games where they were listed as an underdog by any number. The Tar Heels have been an over team as well in the spot they are in here tonight as they have posted a 5-2 record to the over in their last seven games following an ATS win and they have gone over the total in four of their last five NCAA Tournament games where they were listed as the favorite. Throw in the fact that these two teams have gone over a combined 35-14-1 in their last 50 neutral-site games and that’s where we’ll have our play in a game where we expect both teams to get up and down the court on Saturday night in Houston.

    #38669
    Avataradmin
    Keymaster

    Paydirt

    811 Nova & OVER

    813 Syracuse & UNDER

    #38680
    Avataradmin
    Keymaster

    NCAA tournament

    Final Four, Houston

    Since 1987, #8 or lower seeds are 1-3-1 vs spread in national semis when not facing each other. North Carolina swept Syracuse this season, 84-73 in Carrier Dome Jan 9 (trailed by 6 with 8:28 left, UNC made 64.4% of 2-pointers, 3-16 on arc), 75-70 at home Feb 29 (UNC was up 4 at half, made 6 of 25 on arc). Tar Heels made 11-20 on arc vs Indiana, but in last four games other than that one, were at 33.3% or less. Syracuse allowed 55.8 ppg in four tourney wins; their last three losses were by 5 or less points. Carolina won its last nine games overall. Since ’87, when teams from same conference play in national semis, the favorite is 3-1

    Last five years, underdogs are 6-4 vs spread in national semifinal games. Villanova’s worst game of year was 78-55 loss to Oklahoma Dec 7th on Pearl Harbor- game was 32-26 at half. Sooners made 14-26 on arc while Wildcats were 4-32 in game they never led. Villanova won nine of its last ten games, losing by hoop to Seton Hall in Big East final- they’ve got the #13 eFG% in country. Oklahoma has four kids who’ve started together for 100+ games; Sooners won seven of last eight games, losing by hoop to West Virginia in Big X semis. Big East teams are 2-2 vs Big X teams this season- Oklahoma had both Big X wins, also beating Creighton.

    #38681
    Avataradmin
    Keymaster

    StatFox Super Situations™ – FoxSheets

    CBB | SYRACUSE at N CAROLINA
    Play Under – Neutral court teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points hot team – having won 15 or more of their last 20 games, in a post-season tournament game
    67-31 over the last 5 seasons. ( 68.4% | 32.9 units )
    17-15 this year. ( 53.1% | 0.5 units )

    #38682
    Avataradmin
    Keymaster

    StatFox Super Situations™ – FoxSheets

    CBB | SYRACUSE at N CAROLINA
    Play On – Neutral court teams (N CAROLINA) excellent ball handling team – committing <=12 turnovers/game, after 2 straight games committing 11 or less turnovers 660-473 since 1997. ( 58.3% | 77.6 units ) 90-72 this year. ( 55.6% | -17.1 units )

    #38683
    Avataradmin
    Keymaster

    StatFox Super Situations™ – FoxSheets

    CBB | SYRACUSE at N CAROLINA
    Play Under – All teams where the first half total is 65.5 to 70.5 in a game involving two average three point shooting teams (32%-36.5%), after 2 straight games making 37% of their shots or worse
    76-37 since 1997. ( 67.3% | 35.3 units )
    11-7 this year. ( 61.1% | 3.3 units )

    #38700
    Avataradmin
    Keymaster

    WinniBet

    ‘Final 4’
    Villanova -2
    Syracuse +9.5

    #38701
    Avataradmin
    Keymaster

    Steve Merril

    Steve’s Screenshot (NCAA Final Four)

    ‘NCAAB Final Four’
    Villanova vs. Oklahoma
    It will be interesting to see how playing in a big football arena will affect the three-point shooting of both teams, especially since both squads rely heavily on the outside shot and will now be dealing with unusual sight lines. Both teams average 24 three-point attempts per game which equates to 42% of Villanova’s total field goal attempts and 40% of Oklahoma’s total shot attempts per game. Extreme variance in three-point shooting accounted for Oklahoma’s easy 23-point win on December 7th as a 5-point underdog when they faced Villanova in Hawaii. The Sooners shot 14-for-26 (54%) from beyond the arc, while the Wildcats were just 4-for-32 (13%). Villanova actually held a 52% to 41% shooting edge from two-point range in that game.

    Syracuse vs. North Carolina
    The current betting odds give North Carolina an 83% chance of winning this game straight-up. The bigger question for most bettors is if Syracuse can stay within the large pointspread. The key will be if the Orangemen can slow down the pace of play and force UNC into a half-court game. Syracuse was unable to do this in the first regular season meeting on January 9th, losing by 11 points at home with the game going Over the total (157 points), however the Orangemen played better in the rematch on February 29th at Chapel Hill, losing by only 5 points with the game landing right near on the total (145 points).

    #38702
    Avataradmin
    Keymaster

    Ralph Michaels – California Sports

    #811 2.5* Villanova -2 Oklahoma 6:05 PM
    #811/812 1.5* UNDER 145.5
    The Wildcats are playing a zone for the FIRST time ever under HC Jay Wright and as you would expect its been a work in progress making their first meeting with OU an understandable blowout loss. The Sooners are a 3 pt shooting team and made 13 in their last game but Villanova can defend them. Kansas was the #4 team in the Country in 3 pt shooting yet they were held to 22.2% versus Nova. Also in their last 7 games the Wildcats held all 7 foes to under 70 points and even more impressive they held those 7 teams to 10 ppg under their season scoring average.

    #813 1* Syracuse +9.5 North Carolina 8:45 PM
    #813/814 1* UNDER 145.5
    These are the only here because its the Final Four. Syracuse came back from big deficits versus Gonzaga and Virginia when they went to their press. North Carolina basically has two point guards and are the best in the county not only burning the press but turning it into quick points. However with the third meeting this season and Cuse only losing the pair by 6 ppg it’s a very small lean.

    PROPS IF YOU CAN PLAY THEM

    3* Daniel Ochefu OVER 10 points
    Ochefu averaged 10 ppg this season but in this tourney his minutes have gone from 23 min/gm to 28 min/gm, That coupled with a a 6’11” frame versus either of Oklahoma front court players (6’8″ 230 & 6’9″ 215) give him an edge. This venue is also one of the toughest on outside shooters as it is cavernous so expect them to look inside more that they have in the past.

    3* Jordan Woodard OVER 13 points
    Woodard is avg 13 ppg on the season so no surprise this is where the number is at. However, OU HC Lon Krueger did something very unusual and switch the main ball handler about 5 games ago giving Isiah Cousins the job. That allows Woodard to shoot more and he’s done so avg 18 ppg in the tourney. With Villanova’s main goal to stop Buddy Heild that puts less pressure on their number 2 option which will be Woodard here.

    #38703
    Avataradmin
    Keymaster

    SportsBetCappers – Carson K

    Syracuse +9.5
    Villanova -2
    Villanova / Oklahoma – Under 145

    #38704
    Avataradmin
    Keymaster

    GoodFella | CBB Money Line Sat, 04/02/16 – 6:05 PM

    ‘triple-dime bet’
    ML 811 Villanova (-130) vs 812 Oklahoma

    “Final Four GOM” 3* on VILLANOVA $$line

    More on the play coming in Saturday morning. The bottom line for me here, is that I have Villanova winning this game by at least 6 points.

    #38705
    Avataradmin
    Keymaster

    Ken Thomson | CBB ML – Saturday, Apr 2 2016 6:05PM

    ML 811 Villanova (-130) vs 812 Oklahoma
    ‘Triple-dime bet’

    Analysis
    I didn’t want to rush into the play so I waited. In this game vs. Oklahoma I expect Villanova to play a similar style game they played vs. Kansas. In that game, the Wildcats were very efficient on each possession. They knew if they played up tempo with Kansas they would be in trouble. By shortening the game they never let Jayhawk star Perry Ellis get on track. Their perimeter defense was pretty solid although they let Devonte Graham open too many times. The rest of the team got nothing uncontested.

    I was at the 2011 Final Four at NRG in Houston. One of the worst games ever played in the Final game was Butler vs. UConn. The Final Score was 53-41 UConn. Butler made three 2-point buckets the entire game. They shot ( 12 of 64 ) for the game, a whopping 18.8%. UConn was just ( 1 of 11 ) from three point range and shot 34% from the floor.

    With the depth perception at NRG, long range shooting has been a ni ’ghtmare. Buddy Hield grew up in the Bahamas shooting into square milk crates at 6 AM & 11 PM so he’s not going to whine about the conditions. If he’s able to master the Football Stadium venue, the Sooners can win easily. Heck, they blew out Nova in Pearl Harbor by 23 earlier this season. I’m thinking that even Buddy Love will suffer from distance on Saturday. If Jay Wright’s Cats can play as disciplined against Oklahoma as they did vs. Kansas then I think the Cats beat the Sooners. In the Kansas game Kris Jenkins was saddled the entire game in foul trouble and could never get a feel for the game. Ryan Arcidiacono played a cerebral game from wire to wire and Daniel Ochefu was able to go around Landon Collins several times in the paint. I need to see more of that play from the Cats. I think Ochefu can go around Khadeem Lattin for some easy buckets. I think Nova will work the ball around and take solid, quality shots and that will be the difference in the game- I like Nova 70-63 in this one!

    #38706
    Avataradmin
    Keymaster

    SKY BLUE PICKS

    Villanova ML (-132)

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