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CBB ♦ "National Championship Game" ♦ Monday 4/4/16

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  • #38880
    Avataradmin
    Keymaster

    North Carolina opens slight fave over Villanova for national championship

    March Madness has now rolled into April, and we’re down to No. 1 seed North Carolina and No. 2 seed Villanova. The two teams will square off for the NCAA Tournament title Monday night at Houston’s NRG Stadium, where both coasted to Final Four victories Saturday night.

    Villanova’s win was extremely impressive. The Wildcats went off as 2.5-point chalk against fellow No. 2 seed Oklahoma, but made the Sooners look like a one-legged man in a butt-kicking contest in a 95-51 shellacking. After leading by 14 at the half, ‘Nova (34-5 SU, 20-17-1 ATS) spanked the Sooners 53-23 in the final 20 minutes.

    North Carolina (33-6 SU, 20-18-1 ATS) wasn’t quite that impressive, but the Tar Heels shot nearly 54 percent from the floor and got more easy buckets than you could count in an 83-66 win as a 10-point favorite.

    The oddsmakers certainly expect the Heels to get a stiffer test from the Wildcats. John Lester, senior lines manager for Bookmaker, his shop opened Carolina at -2, with the total at 151.

    “It really does feel like we’ve got the two best, most complete teams in the tournament facing off for the national title,” Lester said. “This was somewhat of a difficult line to create because, save for one game, the wiseguys have been backing Villanova throughout the dance, while the Tar Heels have had heavy support from the squares. Public perception dictates North Carolina being the favorite.”

    Jason Simbal, vice president of risk management for CG Technology, which operates several Las Vegas sportsbooks, said his shop set the initial number just a tick lower. But Tar Heels bettors didn’t let it stay that way for long.

    “We opened North Carolina -1.5, which is the look-ahead line we had up all week,” Simbal said. “When the games ended today, they bet Carolina and we moved it to 2. We’ve got four times more money on the Tar Heels as of this moment.”

    Both of Saturday’s games cleared the total, with Villanova-Oklahoma going a bucket over 144 and North Carolina-Syracuse topping the 142.5 total by 6.5 points. Simbal said CG pegged the championship game total slightly higher than Bookmaker, at 152.

    “We’ve gotten some small bets on the over, but not enough to move the number.”

    #38884
    Avataradmin
    Keymaster

    NCAA Championship Game

    Since 1987, #1 seeds are 6-0 vs #2 seeds in a national final (4-2 against spread, covering last four). Villanova is 7th team since 1985 to win their national semifinal by 18+; in six finals that followed those wins, dogs were 5-1 against spread.

    North Carolina won its last ten games overall. Villanova won 10 of its last 11 games, losing by hoop to Seton Hall in Big East final. Villanova beat Oklahoma by 44, Miami by 23, Iowa by 19- they’ve hit their stride at right time. ACC, Big East teams split 12 games this season; favorites were 9-3 vs spread in those games. Carolina beat Villanova 78-71 in ’13 first round NCAA game, making 11-21 on arc- Villanova was 4-21 on arc, but that was an 8-9 game in 2013.

    #38975
    Avataradmin
    Keymaster

    NCAA Championship betting preview

    No. 2 Villanova Wildcats vs. No. 1 North Carolina Tar Heels (-2.5, 149.5)

    Game to be played at NRG Stadium, Houston, TX

    Villanova is fresh off the biggest blowout in Final Four history and aims to carry the momentum into Monday’s national championship contest when it faces top-seeded North Carolina at Houston’s NRG Stadium. The second-seeded Wildcats rolled to a 95-51 victory over Oklahoma on Saturday and attempt to etch their names alongside the school’s famous 1985 title-winning squad that upset Georgetown in the NCAA championship game.

    The Tar Heels have posted five straight double-digit victories in the tournament and are vying for the sixth national championship in school history. “We got to go out there and play our game,” senior forward Brice Johnson said after Saturday’s 83-66 victory over Syracuse. “Those guys are a very good team. They’re really hot right now. They held one of the best players in the country (Oklahoma guard Buddy Hield, nine points) to little or nothing.” Villanova’s stunning 44-point victory boosted its margin of victory in the tourney to 24.2 points and Wildcats coach Jay Wright understands the history in play. “Those guys are really icons on our campus, they really are,” Wright said of the 1985 team led by post players Ed Pinckney and Howard Pressley. “That whole team brings that magical underdog feeling, like anything’s possible.”

    TV: 9:19 p.m. ET, TBS

    LINE HISTORY:
    North Carolina opened as two-point favorites immediately following their impressive Final Four victory over Syracuse. The action came in on the Tar Heels hard overnight Saturday and by Sunday morning the books were forced to move the line to -2.5. The total opened at 151 and was bet down to 149.5 by Sunday. Check out the complete line history here.

    WHAT BOOKS SAY:
    “It really does feel like we’ve got the two best, most complete teams in the tournament facing off for the national title. This was somewhat of a difficult line to create because, save for one game, the wiseguys have been backing Villanova throughout the dance, while the Tar Heels have had heavy support from the squares. Public perception dictates North Carolina being the favorite.” – John Lester, senior lines manager for Bookmaker.

    ABOUT VILLANOVA (34-5, 20-17-1 ATS, 20-17-1 O/U):
    Junior guard Josh Hart was superb against Oklahoma by scoring 23 points on 10-of-12 shooting to fuel the Wildcats’ torrid 71.4 percent shooting mark. Hart averages a team-high 15.5 points while teaming with two other stellar outside shooters in junior forward Kris Jenkins (13.6 average, team-high 98 3-pointers) and senior guard Ryan Arcidiacono (12.4 average, 74 3-pointers). Villanova is thin in the frontcourt compared to the Tar Heels and could use a strong performance from senior center Daniel Ochefu, who averages 10.1 points and leads the squad in rebounding (7.6) and blocked shots (55).

    ABOUT NORTH CAROLINA (33-6, 20-18-1 ATS, 21-18 O/U):
    Johnson is the Tar Heels’ top player with averages of 17 points and 10.5 rebounds and three other players average more than 12 points per game. Senior point guard Marcus Paige (12.3) has excelled from long range during the tournament by going 16-of-34 from 3-point range and he holds the school mark of 295 career 3-pointers. Sophomore guard Joel Berry II averages 12.6 points and sophomore forward Justin Jackson averages 12.3 while junior center Kennedy Meeks (9.4 points, 5.9 rebounds) has played well of late by making 16-of-22 shots over the past three contests.

    TRENDS:

    * Wildcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games.
    * Wildcats are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game.
    * Tar Heels are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 NCAA Tournament games.
    * Over is 6-1 in Wildcats last 7 vs. Atlantic Coast.
    * Over is 10-2 in Wildcats last 12 games following a straight up win.
    * Over is 7-1 in Tar Heels last 8 non-conference games.

    CONSENSUS:
    The action was heavy on UNC early on but the line move to 2.5 seems to have leveled out the percentages with the Tar Heals currently taking 53% of the public opinion. 71% of the picks on the total are coming in on over 149.5.

    #38999
    Avataradmin
    Keymaster

    NEW LEGEND SPORTS

    College Hoops
    5 unit – UNC -2.5

    #39001
    Avataradmin
    Keymaster

    DAVE ESSLER

    601 Villanova 3.0(-110) vs 602 North Carolina
    ‘Triple-Dime Bet’

    #39002
    Avataradmin
    Keymaster

    VEGAS SHARP

    4 Units 601 Villanova +2.5 over UNC

    #39003
    Avataradmin
    Keymaster

    GOODFELLA

    ‘Triple-Dime Bet’
    601 Villanova 3.0 (-110) vs 602 North Carolina

    Analysis: “CBB MAX BET” 3* on VILLANOVA +3

    We will continue to ride this Nova club. They have been a cash cow for us ALL tournament. Simply no reason to not fire on them again here IMO. I have played a portion of my play on the $$line here as well. The bottom line for me here, is that I have this game lined pk’ so VALUE for me catching a full possession with this VERY GOOD aÏll around Nova club. I am all over a very live dog with the VILLANOVA WILDCATS in the CBB Championship Game.

    #39004
    Avataradmin
    Keymaster

    SIMON

    ‘Double-Dime Bet’
    602 North Carolina -2.5(-110) vs 601 Villanova

    #39007
    Avataradmin
    Keymaster

    Basketball Crusher

    Villanova +2.5 over North Carolina
    (System Record: 71-4, lost last 2 games)
    Overall Record: 71-83-3

    #39016
    Avataradmin
    Keymaster

    StatFox Super Situations™ – FoxSheets

    CBB | VILLANOVA at N CAROLINA
    Play Under – All teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points in a game involving two good excellent shooting teams (>=47%), in a game involving two good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) after 15+ games 136-78 over the last 5 seasons. ( 63.6% | 50.2 units ) 40-26 this year. ( 60.6% | 11.4 units )

    #39017
    Avataradmin
    Keymaster

    StatFox Super Situations™ – FoxSheets

    CBB | VILLANOVA at N CAROLINA
    Play On – Neutral Court underdogs vs. the money line (VILLANOVA) good offensive team – scoring 77+ points/game on the season, after allowing 55 points or less
    72-88 since 1997. ( 45.0% | 42.5 units )
    6-8 this year. ( 42.9% | 0.1 units )

    #39018
    Avataradmin
    Keymaster

    StatFox Super Situations™ – FoxSheets

    CBB | VILLANOVA at N CAROLINA
    Play Under – All teams where the first half total is 65.5 to 70.5 average 3PT shooting team (32-36.5%) against an average 3PT defense (32-36.5%), after a game where a team made 50% of their 3 point shots or better
    343-222 since 1997. ( 60.7% | 98.8 units )
    38-32 this year. ( 54.3% | 2.8 units )

    #39027
    Avataradmin
    Keymaster

    OSKEIM SPORTS

    4* Villanova

    #39034
    Avataradmin
    Keymaster

    Stallone Sports
    NCAAB YTD: 206-166 55% (+28.88u)

    1* Villanova ML +131

    #39035
    Avataradmin
    Keymaster

    sleepyj | CBB Total

    ‘single dime bet’
    602 North Carolina / 601 Villanova – Under 150.0
    I really think the Nova defense sets the pace in this one…These games tend to start out slow and each team is looking to measure up here…So I expect a slow start, but that will also give Nova time to dial in the defense…The big key for me in this game is the inside game..Both teams have good big guys and that is the area in which these teams make money…I’m not sold there is a big edge here though..NC has the better interior team, but they will be limited a bit here I think…This game comes down to shooting outside the paint IMO…Now both teams have been shooting rather well, but both defenses are very good…I’m certain both teams will do all they can to limit turnovers and that can slow down the play…Free throw line might be a spot in which we might need some helps with some misses, but overall I feel the under is a good way to look…Even though I’m done with CBB for the season, I’ll throw a unit on this game..I feel The under is worth a 1* wager….Best of luck….Big thanks to all those that jumped on board and supported me this season for CBB…We now focus on NBA playoffs and MLB,

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