- April 4, 2016 at 12:00 pm #39036
Villanova +3April 4, 2016 at 12:07 pm #39039
Villanova +3 (-120)
10 unitsApril 4, 2016 at 12:15 pm #39042
MVP Lock Club
Lock Of The Day
North Carolina -2.5April 4, 2016 at 12:20 pm #39043
7-Unit play. Take Under 150.5 – Villanova vs North CarolinaApril 4, 2016 at 12:21 pm #39044
Power Play Wins
POWER PLAY OF THE DAY
NORTH CAROLINA -2.5April 4, 2016 at 12:35 pm #39047
NSA “THE LEGEND”
25* Villanova +2.5 (Top Play)
10* Villanova – OVER 149.5April 4, 2016 at 12:35 pm #39048
30 Dime – Villanova +2.5April 4, 2016 at 12:38 pm #39050
‘Play of the Day’
602 North Carolina -2.5April 4, 2016 at 12:57 pm #39054
North Carolina (-2 ½) vs Villanova (149 ½ OU)
06:20 PM Pacific, Rotation: 601
I wish I had a pick on this game but I have reason to take both sides. From a value perspective I like Villanova, as my ratings favor North Carolina by just ½ a point and the Wildcats have been the better team in this tournament. My variance adjusted game ratings rate Villanova 3.3 points higher using only NCAA tournament games and even using the median 3 games (throwing out the highest and lowest ratings for each team) still rates Villanova 2.8 points better. If I throw out the round 1 games against bad teams then things even up a bit, as those 4 games would rate Villanova only 0.6 points better after adjusting for variance. If you don’t adjust for variance then there is no doubt that the Wildcats have been much better but Villanova’s variance adjusted rating is 13.8 points lower than their average rating without an adjustment while North Carolina’s variance adjusted rating is only 2.9 points higher than their non-adjusted rating. Regardless of how I look at it I don’t have any ratings that would favor North Carolina by more than ½ a point in this game. The reason I’m not jumping on Villanova based on line value is because the Wildcats apply to a 1-19 ATS Final Four situation that’s 0-6 ATS in the championship game.
From a match up perspective this game will likely come down to whether Villanova can continue to knock down their 3-point shots at a pretty good rate. North Carolina does not defend the 3-point arc well (35.9% allowed this season) and Villanova has made an incredible 48.4% of their 3-point shots in this tournament after being a mediocre 3-point shooting team prior to the tournament. The Wildcats don’t need to continue to make that high a percentage, as I think they’re likely to win if they make 37% or more (they’re 35.9% for the season) as long as they don’t get dominated in the rebounding department, which is really North Carolina’s only advantage in this game. Villanova is not only knocking down their 3-point shots recently, and are expected to make a higher percentage than UNC in this game, but Nova is #2 in the nation in 2-point field goal percentage and #2 in free throw percentage and my model projects better shooting stats for the Wildcats in every category. Rebounding is where the Tarheels have an advantage and they need to create more shooting opportunities for themselves since they’re not expected to shoot a higher percentage than Villanova. North Carolina will almost surely have more rebounds in this game but they’ve got to be better than the +6 they’re projected to be to balance out Villanova’s shooting advantage. Of course, if Nova’s outside shots aren’t falling then that won’t matter, as North Carolina is likely to win if the Wildcats are 33% or lower in 3-point shooting. The NRG stadium affect (historically lower 3-point shooting percentages than expected) didn’t affect Villanova at all in their semifinal win over Oklahoma, as the Cats poured in 11 of 18 3-point shots. However, Villanova was the only one of the four teams to shoot a higher percentage from 3-point range than expected on Saturday so there is still reason to believe that the dome might have some negative affect on 3-point shooting (32.4% in 18 previous college games played here), which would help UNC a bit since the Tarheels don’t take as many 3-point shots. There were a lot of people that took the under in both games on Saturday because of the previous under trend at NRG but the line was adjusted for that and both games went over the total. My match up model projects 150 ½ total points and I still think there should be a slight adjustment lower for playing in a dome so the posted total of 149 ½ points is about right and I don’t see enough value to play the total either way. I wish I had something for you on this final game but I’ve had a solid NCAA Tournament (8-5-1 on Best Bets, despite starting 1-4, and 19-12 on the opinions) and I see no reason to force a bet that’s not there. I’ll pass on both the side and the total.April 4, 2016 at 12:58 pm #39055
Play on: Villanova +3 -105
50* graded play on Villanova as they take on UNC in the NCAA Championship game set to start at 9:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Villanova will win this game and are currently installed as a 2 ½ point dogs. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 41* play using the line and a 9* play using the money line.
Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 62-25 ATS mark good for 71.3% winners since 1997. Play on an underdog (VILLANOVA) after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. These are Money Line situations as well reflecting the upset. Villanova is a near-perfect 12-1 against the money line (+11.0 Units) when they make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game over the last 2 seasons; 14-2 against the money line (+11.8 Units) when they make 38% to 45% of their three point attempts in a game over the last 3 seasons; 10-1 against the money line (+8.9 Units) when they make 79% or more of their free throws in a game this season; 18-1 against the money line (+15.5 Units) when they grab 34 to 39 rebounds in a game over the last 2 seasons; 19-3 against the money line (+14.3 Units) when they commit 10 to 13 turnovers in a game over the last 2 seasons.
Fundamental Discussion Points UNC has had an easy route to this Championship game while Villanova has played the most difficult schedule any No. 2 seed as had to faced in at least the past 10 Tournaments. UNC wins against Florida Gulf Coast, Providence, Indiana, Notre Dame, and Syracuse. Only Indiana was a test since they are the second best shooting team in the nation. Villanova has had to defeat UNC-Ashville, IOWA, Miami (Fla), KANSAS, OKLAHOMA – and I certainly meant the BOLD type. This ‘seasoning’ will more than make Villanova fully prepared for the size and length of UNC. Plus, they already defeated Kansas, the no.1 overall seed in the Tournament. Enough already. Take Villanova.April 4, 2016 at 1:18 pm #39058
2* Play VILLANOVAApril 4, 2016 at 1:18 pm #39059
10* 602 North Carolina -2.5April 4, 2016 at 1:39 pm #39062
12 unit Scout Honor play
6 units – +120 on Money Line as well.April 4, 2016 at 1:41 pm #39064
2,000♦ North Carolina -2.5April 4, 2016 at 1:45 pm #39065
NO. CAROLINA -2 vs. UConn.
(No. Carolina 2*)
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