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MLB • Friday Service Plays • 4/29/16

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    National League games

    Braves @ Cubs
    Blair allowed three runs in 5.1 IP (80 PT) in his first MLB start against the Mets. .

    Lester is 2-1, 1.98 in four starts this month (under 2-2).

    Braves lost eight of their last nine games; five of their last six road games went over the total. Atlanta played in Fenway last night; now a day game here- tough. Cubs won five of their last six games; over is 5-1-1 in their last seven games. .

    Reds @ Pirates
    Straily is 0-0, 3.72 in two starts this month (over 1-1).

    Nicasio is 2-2, 4.50 in four starts this month (over 2-2).

    Reds are 1-8 on the road; over is 5-2-1 in their last eight games overall. Pirates are 8-3 in their last 11 games; over is 11-3 in their last 14 games.

    Giants @ Mets
    Peavy is 1-1, 6.86 in four starts this month (over 4-0).

    Matz is 2-0, 1.35 in his last two starts (over 2-1 this month). .

    Giants won five of their last six games; six of their last seven went over total. Mets won their last six games; four of their last five games stayed under. .

    Marlins @ Brewers
    Conley is 0-1, 5.12 in four starts this month (over 2-1-1)

    Davies is 0-2, 10.80 in two starts this season (over 1-1).

    Marlins won their last five games; five of their last seven games went over the total. Milwaukee lost four of its last five games; over is 4-1-1 in their last six games.

    Nationals @ Cardinals
    Strasburg is 3-0, 2.17 in four starts this month (over 2-1-1).

    Leake is 0-2, 6.85 in four starts this month (over 2-2)

    Washington lost its last three games; under is 4-0-1 in its last five on road. Cardinals won four of their last five games (over 5-0). .

    Rockies @ Diamondbacks
    Chatwood is 2-2, 3.86 in four starts this month (under 4-0). .

    Ray is 1-0, 3.80 in four starts this month (under 3-1). .

    Colorado lost seven of its last eight games; five of its last seven road games stayed under. Arizona is just 4-9 at home- six of their last seven games went over the total

    Padres @ Dodgers
    Vargas allowed one run in five IP (88 PT) in his first MLB start, against Cardinals. .

    Wood is 1-2, 7.29 in four starts this month (over 3-1). .

    Dodgers lost five of last six home games; under is 6-3-1 in their home games. San Diego lost its last five games; over is 9-2 in their last 11 games.

    American League games

    White Sox @ Orioles
    Rodon is 1-2, 4.05 in four starts this month (under 4-0).

    Wright is 1-2, 6.23 in three starts this month (under 2-1)

    Orioles lost four of last seven games but are 8-1 at home- eight of their last ten games stayed under the total. Chicago won eight of its last ten games; under is 8-4 in its last twelve road games.

    Bronx @ Red Sox
    Tanaka is 1-0, 3.28 in four starts this month; his last three starts stayed under.

    Owens allowed three runs in 3.1 IP (86 PT) in his first ’11 start, at Huston. .

    Bronx lost six of its last nine games; under is 7-4 in their last 11. Red Sox won six of their last seven games; six of their last nine games stayed under the total.

    Blue Jays @ Rays
    Sanchez is 1-1, 3.70 in four starts this month (over 3-1)

    Smyly is 1-1, 1.64 in his last three starts (over 2-2).

    Toronto lost six of its last eight games; their last nine road games stayed under total. Tampa Bay won four of last five home games; under is 10-1 in its last eleven games at the Trop.

    Angels @ Rangers
    Santiago is 2-0, 3.04 in four starts this month (under 3-1)

    Lewis is 1-0, 3.00 in his last three starts (over 3-1 in his ’16 starts).

    Angels won four of their last five games; under is 9-2 in their last 11. Texas won six of its last seven home games; five of their last six games overall stayed under.

    Tigers @ Twins
    Fulmer is making his MLB debut here; he is 1-1, 4.11 in three AAA starts in April.

    Hughes is 1-3, 4.26 in four starts this month (under 3-0-1)

    Detroit won three of its last four games; five of their last six games went over total. Minnesota lost four of its last five games; over is 7-2 in their last nine.

    Astros @ A’s
    Fiers is 2-1, 5.32 in four starts this month (over 2-1-1).

    Top prospect Manaea makes his MLB debut here; he was 2-0, 1.50 in three starts for AAA Nashville this month.

    Houston lost six of its last seven road games; over is 9-3 in its road tilts. Oakland lost five of its last six games; under is 6-2 in its last eight home games.

    Royals @ Mariners
    Medlen is 1-1, 6.46 in three starts this month (under 2-1)

    Hernandez is 1-2, 2.52 in four starts; Mariners scored total of 8 runs in those four games, with all four staying under the total.

    Royals lost its last five road games; six of their last eight games overall stayed under the total. Mariners won six of their last eight home games; three of their last four tilts went over the total.


    Indians @ Phillies
    Kluber is 1-3, 4.67 in four starts this month (under 2-2).

    Morgan is making first ’16 start; he was 5-7, 4.48 in 15 MLB starts LY, is 1-1, 3.57 in three AAA starts this month.

    Cleveland won six of its last eight road games; four of its last five games went over the total. Phillies won six of last seven games; fivd of their last six home games went over the total.

    Teams won-lost records when this pitcher starts:
    Atl-Chi– Blair 0-1; Lester 3-1
    Cin-Pitt– Straily 1-1; Nicasio 2-2
    SF-NY– Peavy 2-2; Matz 2-1
    Mia-Mil– Conley 2-2; Davies 0-2
    Wsh-StL– Strasburg 4-0; Leake 1-3
    Col-Az– Chatwood 2-2; Ray 2-2
    SD-LA– Vargas 0-1; Wood 2-2

    Chi-Balt– Rodon 2-2; Wright 1-2
    NY-Bos– Tanaka 3-1; Owens 1-0
    Tor-TB– Sanchez 1-3; Smyly 2-2
    LA-Tex– Santiago 4-0; Lewis 2-2
    Det-Min– Fulmer 0-0; Hughes 1-3
    Hst-A’s– Fiers 2-2; Manaea 0-0
    KC-Sea– Medlen 1-2; Hernandez 1-3

    Clev-Phil– Kluber 1-3; Morgan 0-0

    Starting pitchers allowing 1+ runs in first inning:
    Atl-Chi– Blair 1-1; Lester 1-4
    Cin-Pitt– Straily 0-2; Nicasio 1-4
    SF-NY– Peavy 2-4; Matz 0-3
    Mia-Mil– Conley 1-4; Davies 0-2
    Wsh-StL– Strasburg 0-4; Leake 2-4
    Col-Az– Chatwood 1-4; Ray 0-4
    SD-LA– Vargas 0-1; Wood 1-4

    Chi-Balt– Rodon 2-4; Wright 1-3
    NY-Bos– Tanaka 1-4; Owens 0-1
    Tor-TB– Sanchez 1-4; Smyly 0-4
    LA-Tex– Santiago 2-4; Lewis 3-4
    Det-Min– Fulmer 0-0; Hughes 2-4
    Hst-A’s– Fiers 2-4; Manaea 0-0
    KC-Sea– Medlen 1-3; Hernandez 0-4

    Clev-Phil– Kluber 1-4; Morgan 0-0


    StatFox Super Situations™ – FoxSheets

    Play Against – Any team (ST LOUIS) with a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR’s/start, with a team batting average of .275 or better on the season (NL)
    69-42 over the last 5 seasons. ( 62.2% | 34.6 units )
    1-1 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.2 units )

    StatFox Situational Power Trends™ – FoxSheets

    NY METS are 85-38 (+39.2 Units) against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 over the last 3 seasons.
    The average score was: NY METS (4.9) , OPPONENT (3.1)


    Friday’s Diamond Notes
    By Kevin Rogers

    Hottest team: Phillies (6-1 last seven)
    Didn’t think that Philadelphia would be featured in this spot this season much less in April. The Phillies shocked the Nationals by pulling off a three-game sweep, while pulling off back-to-back shutouts. Philadelphia wrapped up a six-game road trip with consecutive series victories over Milwaukee and Washington to improve to 12-10. The Phillies host the Indians this weekend at Citizens Bank Park, as Cleveland owns a 5-13 record in Corey Kluber’s last 18 road starts since the beginning of the 2015 season.

    Coldest team: Reds (1-8 on road)
    Cincinnati has won only once away from the Great American Ballpark this season in nine tries, as the Reds begin a weekend set at Pittsburgh. Since taking two of three from the Pirates earlier this month, the Reds have lost nine of their last 11 games against NL Central opponents. Cincinnati’s road woes continued by getting swept this week by the Mets, as the Reds have scored three runs or less in all eight road defeats. The Reds competed well at PNC Park last season by winning five of nine meetings at Pittsburgh, while each series opener at PNC in 2015 went OVER the total.

    Hottest pitcher: Steven Matz, Mets (2-1, 5.40 ERA)
    The young New York southpaw was knocked around in his first start of the season against the Marlins by allowing seven earned runs in less than two innings of work. However, Matz has rebounded in a big way by coming off a pair of dominating performances in road victories at Cleveland and Atlanta. Matz struck out 17 batters and walked two, while giving up just two earned runs in those away wins as New York improved to 6-1 in his career road starts. New York lost two of three home games to San Francisco last season, while Matz is facing the Giants for the first time in his career.

    Coldest pitcher: Zach Davies, Brewers (0-2, 9.72 ERA)
    The second year right-hander has made two starts this season and hasn’t even reached nine innings pitched. Davies has given up 10 runs (nine earned) total in losses to the Pirates and Phillies, while allowing 17 hits this season. Facing the Marlins may be the thing to get Davies out of his funk, as the righty shut down Miami’s lineup last September in a 9-1 rout by yielding four hits and one earned run in seven innings.

    Biggest UNDER run: Nationals (6-2 on road)
    Washington’s offense has been hit or miss on the road this season by scoring at least seven runs three times, but has been limited to three runs or less five times. The Nationals begin a rough 10-game road swing against the Cardinals, Royals, and Cubs, as Washington has faced Atlanta, Miami, Philadelphia, and Minnesota so far. The three pitchers that oppose Washington this weekend at Busch Stadium are Mike Leake, Jaime Garcia, and Carlos Martinez, as none of them pitched against the Nationals last season.

    Biggest OVER run: Diamondbacks (9-5 at home)
    In spite of Thursday’s UNDER in the series finale against the Cardinals, the Diamondbacks have produced many high-scoring games this season at Chase Field. The first three games against St. Louis saw scores of 12-7, 8-2, and 11-4, while the winner of their previous series against Pittsburgh put up at least seven runs in all three games. The Rockies invade Chase Field this weekend as each team produced a double-digit effort in one game each when the NL West rivals met earlier this month.

    Matchup to watch: Royals vs. Mariners
    Seattle has played well to close out the first month of the season by winning six of its past eight games to pull within one-half game of first place in the AL West. The Mariners host a struggling Royals’ squad that has lost four consecutive road contests, including getting swept by the Angels. The task doesn’t get easier for the defending champions, facing former Cy Young winner Felix Hernandez. King Felix has produced four UNDERS in four starts, as the Mariners’ offense has plated eight runs in those four outings. Hernandez is making his second start at Safeco Field after tossing seven scoreless innings in a 2-1 loss to Oakland on April 10. The Royals captured two of three matchups at Seattle last season, including a 4-1 triumph over Hernandez as a +135 underdog last June.

    Betcha you didn’t know:
    The Astros picked up only their third road victory in nine tries on Wednesday at Seattle. Houston travels to Oakland to begin a weekend series, as the Astros have lost in five of their past seven visits to the Coliseum. Mike Fiers takes the mound for Houston in the series opener, but the Astros lost all three times against the A’s last season as a favorite of -125, -145, and -205.

    Biggest public favorite:
    Cubs (-270) vs. Braves

    Biggest public underdog:
    Blue Jays (+105) at Rays

    Biggest line move:
    Reds (+145 to +135) at Pirates


    Spreading the wealth in MLB cash games

    It’s common knowledge that the key to success in daily fantasy tournament play is identifying the best lineups on a given day and stacking multiple players from that team.

    But that isn’t necessarily the best way to build your cash game bankroll – in fact, you’re better off in most cases by diversifying your lineup to include as many different teams as possible. The main reason? Risk factor.

    By investing heavily in one lineup on a given day, you run the risk – however slight – of those players coming up empty. Having Toronto stars Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion and Troy Tulowitzki on your daily fantasy roster isn’t going to do you much good if the Blue Jays wind up getting held to a run on four hits.

    This tactic is more suited to GPPs, where you’re likely submitting multiple lineups and the investment in each roster is minimal compared to your overall bankroll.

    In cash games, it’s better to target players who represent strong value plays no matter what team they play for. And if that means rostering nine batters from nine different lineups, then so be it.

    Here’s how to diversify your lineup in cash-game competitions:

    Seek out players who hit high in their respective orders

    Leadoff men and No. 2 hitters not only see the most plate appearances, they also have the best chance at scoring runs – and when it’s a high floor you seek, those things matter a lot.

    Always consider the platoon

    Find the batter with the best results against pitchers who have the platoon disadvantage; if you have a few options to choose from on a given team, look for the one with the most significant platoon edge.

    Seek out slumping stars

    These players are almost always offered at discounted prices, with the size of the salary drop dependent on the length of the slump. Great hitters don’t stay down for long, so buy low. They don’t need to do much to return value.

    Avoid bad-weather games where possible

    Let someone else take a chance on a game that might not get played. While you can’t really afford to avoid inclement weather in tournaments, you don’t need the risk in cash games. Stick to domes and clear skies at all times if you can.

    Don’t hesitate to pick against your pitcher

    It’s okay to select a slugger who is facing off against the starter you’ve rostered; there’s plenty of room for both to succeed. Just don’t roster multiple hitters against your pitcher; there’s too much value lost in that situation.



    100* Rays -120


    Baseball Crusher

    Seattle Mariners -160 over Kansas City Royals
    (System Record: 16-0, lost last game)
    Overall Record: 16-9

    Boston Red Sox +105 over New York Yankees

    Pittsburgh Pirates -152 over Cincinnati Reds

    Los Angeles Angels + Texas Rangers – OVER 9



    USA: MLB Minnesota Twins – Detroit Tigers
    Under 9
    Odd: 1,90



    4-Unit Play. #921. Take LA Angels -123
    over Texas
    (Friday @ 8:05pm est)

    3-Unit Play. #916. Take Baltimore -110
    over Chicago White Sox
    (Friday @ 7:05pm est)

    3-Unit Play. #920. Take Tampa Bay -118
    over Toronto
    (Friday @ 7:10pm est)

    3-Unit Play. #908. Take Milwaukee -105
    over Miami (Friday @ 8:10pm est)


    “MLB betting cheat sheet·”
    Beltway Blues

    By Bryan Power

    The Major League Baseball season is about to roll over to its second month and it’s already been a roller coaster ride for many teams. Covers Expert Power Sports gives a comprehensive look at the need to know betting notes for this weekend’s series, including the Nationals current struggles.

    Well, It Can’t Be Any Worse Than It Was The Last Time…

    It’s never too early in the season to talk about revenge. San Diego (7-15, -7.1 units) will have a big time case of it this weekend when they visit Chavez Ravine to play the Dodgers. If you recall, these two NL West rivals opened the season against one another. The result was a historic, one-sided bludgeoning as the Padres were outscored 25-0 on the wrong end of a three-game sweep. It was the first time in MLB history that one team was shut out in its first three games of the season. While the Padres will certainly be an underdog in all three games this weekend (lost five in a row), note they at least avoid Kenta Maeda (but will draw Clayton Kershaw in the series finale). Be sure to check Thursday’s result for LA as if they lose, that means they’ll be off a series where they got swept as well.

    Beltway Blues

    So much for that fast start to the season for the Nationals. They just suffered the ignominy of being swept at home by the Phillies (shut out last two games) and now have just a one-half game lead over the hard-charging Mets. The Nats head to St. Louis this weekend to play a Cardinals team that might be “only” 12-9 (as of Thursday), but has a +48 run differential (trails only Cubs) after averaging 7.3 runs per game its last seven games. The one thing Washington has going for them in this next series is that Stephen Strasburg will be toeing the rubber in Friday’s opener. Strasburg has a 4-0 TSR and 0.931 WHIP.

    Bottom of the Barrel

    The Braves avoided what would have been a four-game sweep at the hands of Boston with 5-3 win Thursday. But they certainly appear to be “up against it” this weekend with a trip to the Windy City to take on the team with – by far- the best run differential in the sport, the Cubs (+74). Atlanta’s record is a MLB-worst 5-17 (-42 in run diff). This will be the biggest mismatch on the board, daily, all weekend long.

    Hitting Notes

    * A big reason why St. Louis is lapping the league in runs scored (137) has been the hitting of Aledmys Diaz. Over the last seven days alone, he’s 14 of 23 (.609) with a ridiculous 1.582 OPS. He has a seven-game hit streak entering Thursday night. But, if there’s one guarantee that I can make in this week’s column it’s that Diaz won’t be able to keep this up.

    * After a slow start, Mike Trout has started to resemble his old self, at least in the power department. He’s hit four home runs in his last 24 at-bats and will head into Arlington this weekend on an eight-game hit streak. The Rangers have been a favorable opponent in the past for Trout, who has hit .402 with six homers, 18 RBI, 24 runs and a 1.288 OPS the last 25 games against them.

    Pitching Notes

    * Chris Sale has won the 2016 American Cy Young Award. Okay, that may be a bit of premature proclamation, but Sale has been downright filthy thus far winning all five starts thanks to a 1.66 ERA and 0.684 WHIP. His next start is Sunday in Baltimore, a team that has hit 10 home runs in eight home games so far.

    * Last year saw Corey Kluber earn the dubious distinction of biggest money-losing starter in all of MLB, by far, at -17.7 units. (No other starter was down more than 11.6). The first three starts of 2016 brought “more of the same” for the one-time Cy Young winner (0-3 TSR), but Kluber’s last time out was a much needed outing where he tossed eight scoreless of three-hit ball vs. Boston. He starts Friday night in Philadelphia and in my mind, the turnaround will continue there for Kluber.

    Totals Streak

    Prior to a disastrous outing his last time out, Blue Jays starter Aaron Sanchez had seen the Under cash in eight of nine starts. He will get the baseball in Friday’s opener at Tampa Bay, a battle of what is two of the top six Under teams in all of baseball. The Rays being a top three Under team is not surprising, but the Jays being in the same stratosphere is. Last year’s #1 offensive team is averaging just 4.0 rpg, which is a middle of the pack 16th in MLB.

    Friday’s Weather Report

    * In Baltimore, there is a 56 percent chance of rain and a slight five mile per hour wind gusting in from right field for the Orioles’ game tonight against the White Sox. The total for the game is 8.5.

    * There is a 47 percent chance of rain today in Philadelphia, where the Phillies will host the Indians. There will also be a slight five mile per hour wind gusting across the field from first to third. The total is currently 7.5.

    * The Mets host the Giants with a 60 percent chance of rain and a six mile per hour wind blowing in from right field. The total for the game is currently 7.5.

    * In Arlington, there will be a strong 12-15 mile per hour pitchers wind gusting in from right field for the Rangers game versus the Angels. There is a also a 60 percent chance of rain and chance of thunderstorms in the forecast. The total is currently 9.0.

    * In St. Louis, there is a chance of thunderstorms, a 24 percent chance of rain and a six to eight mile per hour wind gusting in from right field for the Cardinals game against the Nationals. The total is currently 7.5.


    Totals 4U

    twins – UNDER

    rockies – UNDER

    dodgers – UNDER

    mets – OVER

    yankees – OVER

    royals – OVER


    Master Sports

    3* Minnesota Twins
    *w/Hughes -115



    LA ANGELS -130 over Texas
    8:05 P.M. EST
    FREE PICKS are now 46-28 (62%) the last 74 days!
    Horrible match up here for the Rangers, who have not only really struggled against Angels starter Hector Santiago, but have also seen their starter Colby Lewis get lit up by LA in recent history. The last 10 games Lewis has toed the rubber against the Angels he has been tagged for 10 home runs and an ERA of more than 9.00. Meanwhile, Santiago is a perfect 5-0 in seven starts against the Rangers with a 2.23 ERA. And while the Angels have been a subpar team for the last couple seasons, since 2013 they are a profitable 93-69 (+15.6 units) when playing in the division. Lay the price on the road.


    MLB Baseball Betting Trends – Fri – April, 29

    Atlanta at Chicago Cubs, 2:20 PM ET
    Atlanta: 14-46 SU as an underdog of +150 or more
    Chicago: 79-49 SU at home when the total is 7 to 8.5

    Cincinnati at Pittsburgh, 7:05 PM ET
    Cincinnati: 21-46 SU on the road when the total is 7.5 or less
    Pittsburgh: 95-50 SU as a home favorite of -110 or higher

    San Francisco at NY Mets, 7:10 PM ET
    San Francisco: 23-17 SU when playing with a day off
    NY Mets: 11-15 SU after allowing 4 runs or less 6 straight games

    Miami at Milwaukee, 8:10 PM ET
    Miami: 7-1 SU in road games after 2 or more consecutive road games
    Milwaukee: 11-22 SU in home games after having lost 4 of their last 5

    Washington at St Louis, 8:15 PM ET
    Washington: 22-36 SU after batting .240 or worse over a 15 game span
    St Louis: 87-53 SU against right-handed starters

    Colorado at Arizona, 9:40 PM ET
    Colorado: 2-15 SU on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5
    Arizona: 23-13 SU after scoring 4 runs or less 3 straight games

    San Diego at LA Dodgers, 10:10 PM ET
    San Diego: 13-6 SU in road games after a loss by 4 runs or more
    Los Angeles: 18-23 SU after 3 straight games where they committed no errors

    Chicago at Baltimore, 7:05 PM ET
    Chicago: 14-40 SU on road revenging a road blowout loss vs opp of 8 runs or more
    Baltimore: 7-0 SU at home when the total is 8 to 8.5

    NY Yankees at Boston, 7:10 PM ET
    NY Yankees: 34-22 SU in road games after scoring 2 runs or less
    Boston: 35-40 SU at home when the total is 8.5 to 10

    Toronto at Tampa Bay, 7:10 PM ET
    Toronto: 46-41 SU against left-handed starters
    Tampa Bay: 9-21 SU after scoring 1 run or less

    LA Angels at Texas, 8:05 PM ET
    Los Angeles: 40-17 SU when the total is 9 to 9.5
    Texas: 6-9 SU as an underdog of +100 or higher

    Detroit at Minneosta, 8:10 PM ET
    Detroit: 11-27 SU after having won 3 of their last 4 games
    Minnesota: 52-40 SU in home games

    Houston at Oakland, 10:05 PM ET
    Houston: 30-15 SU after batting .240 or worse over a 15 game span
    Oakland: 8-19 SU in home games after 2 or more consecutive overs

    Kansas City at Seattle, 10:10 PM ET
    Kansas City: 30-17 SU when the total is 7 or less
    Seattle: 6-12 SU as a home favorite of -150 to -175

    Cleveland at Philadlephia, 7:05 PM ET
    Cleveland: 28-37 SU against left-handed starters
    Philadelphia: 14-8 SU after having won 4 of their last 5


    Dave Essler

    ‘single-dime’ -923 DET (+100) vs 924 MIN
    Analysis: Fulmer is making his big league debut, and it couldn’t be in a better park (big) or against a lighter hitting team. He’s the Tigers’ #1 pitching prospect and came over as part of the Cespedes deal. In the Minors he’s averaged (all levels combined) almost a strikeout per inning, has only allowed 26 home runs in almost 400 innings, and has a 1.26 WHIP. Those are quite doable, and of course the Twins (nor anyone else) hasn’t seen him before (F5 bet there, too). Add all those K’s to the fact that Minnesota has struck out 10+ times in four straight games. Hughes throws strikes – but against the free-swinging Tigers that’s been a perpetual problem. Cabrerra has 17 hits with five jacks in only 38 at bats – which is almost enough for me, but there are other Tigers’ that have had plenty of success, albeit in far less at bats. We like to talk about how Target Field has been good for Hughes, but let’s look closer. Over the last three years he’s got a 4.72 ERA at home and allowed 43 home runs and a .286 batting average against – at home. The last three years against the Tigers he’s allowed 56 hits in 41 innings and a .327 batting average against, and over half of that at home. Detroit has won four of five and at home this season their suspect bullpen has been MUCH better – only a 2.66 ERA. Detroit is 10-6 against RH pitching and 1-4 against LHP (which surprised me) and they’re 6-4 on the road, having play at Kansas City, Pittsburgh, and Houston.

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