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MLB • Friday Service Plays • 4/29/16

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  • #42289

    Houston Astros on track to be the worst baseball bet ever
    By Jason Logan

    If you’ve been betting the Houston Astros to start the season, April has been a long, cold – and costly – month.

    Heading into Friday’s road game against the Oakland Athletics, the Astros have burned baseball bettors for -11.40 units (-$1,140 if you bet $100 on each of their games) thanks to a 7-15 record and high expectations from MLB oddsmakers to start the season.

    Houston has been a moneyline favorite in 18 of its first 22 games and a poor effort out of the gate has the club on the brink of betting history, chasing down the 2002 Chicago Cubs as the worst MLB bet to start a season.

    The 2002 Cubbies torched bankrolls for -13.90 units thanks to an 8-16 record through the first month of that season, and the extra few cents that comes with being one of the more publicly bet teams in all of sports (finished 67-95 for -47.65 units). Behind them in terms of money lost in April are the 2005 New York Yankees (-13.6 units/10-14), 2012 Los Angeles Angels (-13.6 units/10-17), and the 1999 Baltimore Orioles (-13.2 units/6-16).

    Last year, the Milwaukee Brewers were on pace to become the biggest season-opening money pit as far back as our records go (since 1999), down -12.05 units on April 24. However, the Brew Crew picked up some plus-money wins at the end of the month to finish with -12.78 units which ranks as the sixth worst start for MLB betting in the past 17 years.

    As for the worst baseball bet of all time (or as far back as our records go), the 2004 Arizona Diamondbacks went 51-111 for -61.25 units. That D-backs team posted a record of 9-13 for -6.85 units that April.

    The Astros head into Friday’s matchup with the A’s as -127 road favorites. If Houston losses around those same price points both Friday and Saturday, before the end of the month, it would come close to losing -14.0 units to start the season.

    Houston, which went 86-76 last season (-2.78 units), sits near the basement in terms of team ERA (4.97 – 26th), quality starts (7 – 26th), and batting average (.238 – 20th). The Astros were among the top teams in pitching (3.57 ERA – 6th) and scoring (729 total runs – 6th) in 2015, making the postseason via the Wild Card and eventually losing to the World Series champion Kansas City Royals in the American League Divisional Series.

    That 2015 turnaround and postseason showing convinced oddsmakers to tag Houston with a 2016 season win total of 85.5 – a big bump for their 2015 season win total of 73.5 victories. The Stros will have to go 79-61 or better from here out to cash in that Over.

    The Astros are 17-39 in their last 56 road games and have just won win in their last six contests in Oakland.


    Guaranteed picks,today

    7:10pm Giants vs. Mets
    (700 Stars) Mets

    9:40pm Rockies vs. Diamondbacks
    (800 Stars)Arizona

    10:05pm Astros vs. Athletics
    (500 Stars)Houston


    We Pick Sports
    MLB: (Season -16.35*)

    Baltimore (-110)
    4* 7:05 ET



    7:05 EST
    Rotation #915-916
    Orioles -115 over White Sox
    Baltimore has been great against left handed pitching this year scoring over 7 runs per game and their bullpen has been rock solid. Look for the Orioles big hitters to get a lot of extra base hits tonight and for their bullpen to hold the lead they should have. Take the Orioles.



    NY Mets


    The Hawk

    Charlotte Hornets-2


    Steve Merril

    3% Washington Nationals -135
    Washington will begin a 3-game in St. Louis on Friday night. The Nationals will start Stephen Strasburg this evening. My numbers project a strong outing for Strasburg against St. Louis’ lineup. Strasburg is slated to give up just 1.8 earned runs with a solid 2.94 ERA and a terrific 1.11 WHIP in this game based on my numbers. Strasburg has recorded 13 strikeouts in 55 at-bats versus the Cardinals’ lineup during his career. He is backed by a solid Nationals’ bullpen that has a 2.44 ERA and 1.04 WHIP this season, including a 2.16 ERA and 1.00 WHIP on the road.

    St. Louis will send Mike Leake to the mound in this game. Leake has given up 20 runs on 25 hits in 85 at-bats to the Washington lineup in his career. The Nationals are hitting .294 with a .895 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage metric) against Leake. My numbers project Leake to have a weak 6.6 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched tonight. We’ll lay the price with Washington and Strasburg in this game on Friday night.



    2* Chi Cubs RL-1.5

    1* Houston Astros

    1* Texas Rangers

    1* San Francisco



    Baltimore O’s

    LA Angels

    Detroit Tigers

    Milwaukee Brewers


    SB Professor Original MLB Picks 4/29

    No play


    Betting First Look Show with Marco D’Angelo

    Milwaukee Brewers


    No Limit Sports

    5% Jays / Rays – UNDER 7.5


    Bobby Wise from banker sports

    5 1/2 unit wisest play
    Baltimore -115 over chicago white sox


    GP from Vegas

    Yankees/Red Sox – FIRST 5INN – Over 4 -125

    Padres – TT Over 3 -110

    Giants/Mets – FIRST 5INN – Over 3.5 -115


    Billy Hill from banker sports

    13 unit play
    Tanaka and the yankees over henry and boston red sox

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