- April 23, 2016 at 12:12 pm #41599
Stephen Nover | MLB Total
dime bet – 902 CIN / 901 CHC – OVER 8.5
Analysis: It’s not a huge surprise the over has cashed in eight of Cincinnati’s last 11 games. The Reds have a terrible bullpen and they play in a great hitter’s park.
John Lackey isn’t a front line starter anymore and the Cubs should do plenty of damage against converted starter Dan Straily and one of the worst bullpens in the majors. The Reds’ relievers have a combined 6.89 ERA. Straily has a career 4.51 ERA.
The Cubs are averaging 6.9 runs per game on the road even though most of their big hitters haven’t gotten into full gear yet.April 23, 2016 at 12:17 pm #41600
Baseball’s best ‘Over’ and ‘Under’ bets are coming from unlikely sources
By Jason Logan
If you hear something long enough, you’re bound to start accepting it as fact. For quite some time, people thought the world was flat – and apparently some still do.
The same can be said about the American and National Leagues. Baseball’s Junior Circuit (AL) has a stigma as a ball-crushing league, with big scores and towering home runs – thanks in large part to the designated hitter. The Senior Circuit (NL) is oft-thought of as a pitchers’ league, with tighter low-scoring baseball taking place.
Those views may be misconceptions, at least as far as the 2016 MLB season is concerned. Heading into the schedule for Monday April 20, the “power-hitting” American League boasted a 31-53-6 Over/Under count against its own – staying Under the total 63 percent of the time. The “pitcher-friendly” National League, on the other hand, was an even-keel 47-46-2 Over/Under, with Interleague games topping the total at 13-5 O/U – 72 percent.
“It’s interesting that you bring it up,” says Peter Korner, founder of Las Vegas-based odds service The Sports Club, when presented this current betting trend. “All my other oddsmakers were giving me really low totals in the American League and I asked, ‘Why so low?’”.
“They noticed it before I did. We have some much lower totals than we normally would but they’re still going Under,” Korner continues. “To me, at this time in the season early on, the pitching is ahead of the hitting, in terms of timing and everything.”
The biggest standouts in terms of divisions and their totals outcomes in each respective league are the American League East and National League Central.
The AL East, once considered the most dangerous group in baseball because of the stacked lineups of the Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Orioles, has produced a 16-25-3 Over/Under record as of Monday – 61 percent Unders – to start the 2016 campaign. And games played between two AL East members in that span are 7-14-2 O/U, a 68 percent winner for the Under, with an average of 8.05 runs scored versus an average betting total of 8.39 runs per game.
The NL Central, which owned the top three team ERAs last season, is a collective 34-20-0 Over/Under, playing above the oddsmakers’ projected total 60 percent of the time. There has been an average of 9.2 runs scored in games involving at least one NL Central member versus an average betting total of 7.8 runs per game.
So what’s behind these profitable numbers? Is it market misconception when it comes to how baseball bettors view respective leagues and their divisions? Teddy Covers, Covers Experts handicapper and Las Vegas resident, says there are myriad factors playing into these early season trends.
“It’s a bunch of micro decisions making this macro trend,” he says. “I see it as more static than useful data, honestly. And seeing these kind of trends early on is not unusual.”
Teddy Covers points out specific reasons why the American League East is staying Under – “The Yankees bullpen. Toronto isn’t hitting yet. Baltimore’s pitching has been better than expected. Tampa Bay is pretty much an Under play all season.” – and why the National League Central keeps topping the totals – “The Cubs and Cardinals are crushing the ball, ranked No. 1 and No. 2 in runs. The Pirates relievers and starters have sucked.”
Like many early-season MLB trends, they almost always correct themselves over the course of the marathon baseball season. And whether it be pitching having the edge over hitting, low totals making it easier to go over, or a combined number of circumstances creating these edges, MLB bettors should be on the lookout for life back in the bats of the American League East and pitching taking its place at the top of the National League Central.
On the season, MLB games have produced a 97-114 count – a 54 percent edge for the Under. Last year finished 1,178-1,122 O/U (51% Over) and over the past five baseball seasons, never has the final Over/Under count leaned more 51.7 percent either way.April 23, 2016 at 12:49 pm #41604
SPORTS INSURANCE ADJUSTERS
Milwaukee RL -1.5 +155
Free Play: Pittsburgh RL -1.5 +145April 23, 2016 at 12:50 pm #41606
1* Astros -133April 23, 2016 at 12:50 pm #41608
WE PICK SPORTS
5* 8:10 ETApril 23, 2016 at 12:52 pm #41610
Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals
OVER 9April 23, 2016 at 12:53 pm #41612
5% Houston AstrosApril 23, 2016 at 12:54 pm #41613
TexasApril 23, 2016 at 12:55 pm #41616
Tigers +105 over Indians
Neither starter has found their stuff this year so I don’t expect either to go long in this one. The bullpens are night and day. Detroit’s bullpen is excellent and home while the Indians bullpen has been downright awful. When a line is pretty much at even money the bullpens play crucial roles in the way you wager. Take the Tigers.April 23, 2016 at 12:57 pm #41617
TRIPLE DIME MLB TOTAL DESTROYER!
OVER 9 – pittsburgh vs arizonaApril 23, 2016 at 1:01 pm #41620
2 Units Texas / Chicago – Over 8April 23, 2016 at 1:04 pm #41622
MLB  YANKS / RAYS Under 7.5 (-110) 2u
MLB  DETROIT // CLEVELAND UNDER 8 (-110) 2u
MLB  PHILLIES + 133 2u
3 Team parlay TAMPA BAY + 1.5 PACERS + 1 PACERS // RAPTORS UNDER 194.5 2u wins 984April 23, 2016 at 1:51 pm #41623
913 Marlins / Giants – OVER 7 (+100)
Fernandez battled control issues again on Monday against Washington but earned his first win after yielding one run in six innings. The 23-year-old has allowed a total of two runs over 11 innings in his last two starts with seven walks on that stretch. “I’m just trying to come out of the gate throwing strikes and getting early contact, that’s my goal,” Fernandez told the Miami Herald. “The Giants have some tough hitters. I’m just trying to not overthrow and give my boys a chance to win.”
Peavy’s early-season struggles continued against Arizona on Monday as he allowed four runs and seven hits over five innings. The three-time All-Star has yielded a total of 28 hits over 14 frames in his first three starts. Opponents are batting .431 against the 34-year-old, who owns a 5-4 record with a 2.83 ERA in nine career starts against the Marlins – including a complete-game effort while pitching for the Chicago White Sox on May 25, 2013.April 23, 2016 at 1:55 pm #41626
Winners Circle Sports
OVER 8 – indians / tigers
OVER 8 – red sox / astrosApril 23, 2016 at 2:28 pm #41633
3 TM PARLAY:
PACERS UNDER 194, CHARLOTTE ML, PHILLIES + 1.5 3u wins 1236
MLB ATLANTA BRAVES + 1.5 (-135)
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