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2016 Win Totals posted
By Micah RobertsPitchers and catchers still haven’t reported for Spring Training yet, but we’ve got fresh 2016 baseball action already on the boards at the Atlantis Reno which Thursday posted season win totals for all 30 teams.
It’s the 10th straight year sports book director Steve Mikkelson has been the first in Nevada to post MLB totals, which always coincides the week after the Super Bowl.
“I just love baseball and I’ve been hunkered with all kinds of data the last three days finalizing all these numbers,“ said Mikkelson. “I have my spread sheets made up with all the projected lineups and rotations and then I finally come up with a number and when they open, I enjoy seeing all the bettors immediate reaction.“
Lou Pinella said that all baseball teams start out 60-60 and it’s what they do in those other 42 games that make or break a season. These numbers the Atlantis posted are tight, but when other books start posting them around the state — the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook opens their win totals Feb. 21 — and the numbers fluctuate, it’s the bettors who have all the edge. Chances are that most of these teams will finish near their posted total with only a game or two game variances.
For instance, betting the Los Angeles Dodgers this year UNDER 87 wins might be a good wager right now because it’s likely two weeks later you’ll be able to bet them OVER 85 wins at another book and create yourself a nice middle opportunity to win both bets or maybe at least win one and push on the other. Worst case scenario is you don’t win or lose either wager.
Last year, Mikkelson posted the Kansas City Royals at 86 wins with not much action until other books opened them at 80. Kansas City ended up winning 95 games en route to a World Series title.
“That was one of our better wins last season,” said Mikkelson. “We closed at 83 with lots of UNDER action.”
Mikkelson is high on the Royals again in 2016 as they attempt to be the first team since the 2001 Yankees to make three straight World Series appearances.
“I really like what the Royals do and I don’t think all the sabermetrics really tell the whole story of how good they are. This is one of those teams I go more with the eye test than numbers.
The San Francisco Giants have won the World Series in each of the past three even years, but that’s not why they were posted with the highest total at 90 wins. In addition to upgrading the pitching staff by signing Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija, Mikkelson also has to post a number knowing his core audience of bettors up north in Giants country always make the driver east to Reno to wager at his book..
“I didn’t factor in as much this year knowing I would get Giants action (OVER the total) like I usually do,“ said Mikkelson. “I really believe top to bottom the Giants have the best 25-man roster in baseball. Of all the teams, they have the least question marks. I mean that rotation is stacked and if they get anything out of Matt Cain, it makes them even better than expected. I like the addition of Denard Spam and I’ve always like the way Bruce Bochy manages his bullpen.“
Risk on the Chicago Cubs World Series futures have dropped them down to 4-to-1 odds at many sports books. The Cubbie fans can’t wait to see their team win its first World Series since 1908. They won 97 games last season, but they’re posted at a total of only 89 wins, despite Mikkelson knowing those fans will bet away on any number OVER.
“Last season they kind of surprised everyone. This year they’ve got pressure and expectations to match 2015. I like them to do well, but downgraded them a bit just because they have a lot of swing and miss guys. Plus you’ve got the Cubs in the same division with the Cardinals and Pirates, who both finished ahead of the Cubs last season. I just couldn’t go higher than 89 wins.”
The lowest total on the board is the Atlanta Braves with 65 wins. Last season they went 67-95 and didn’t do any type of off-season upgrades as they’re building for the future. Their lack of doing anything stood out to Mikkelson
“Prior to the Astros, when teams were rebuilding they didn’t tank and make it so obvious. But now you’ve got teams like the Braves, Phillies, Brewers, Reds and Rockies that aren’t even trying. The Braves are the most obvious of the bunch. They traded away their best pitcher, Shelby Miller, for prospects and they have Bud Norris expected to be their No. 2 starter. They‘re like a good Triple-A roster.”
The hardest number Mikkelson had to make was on his beloved Boston Red Sox, who despite winning only 78 games last season, were posted at 85.5 wins.
“I’m a die-hard Red Sox fan, so I had to be as objective as I could, but I really like all the moves they made in the off-season. I think they’re arguably the best team in the American League.”
The big moves for Boston was getting David Price to anchor the rotation and Craig Kimbrel to close out games. Hanley Ramirez will also be taking over at first-base.
s a look at all the opening 2016 MLB season win totals posted Thursday at the Atlantis Reno:
Listed below are every team’s final wins from each of the last three seasons, while the right column displays the opening 2016 MLB win totals posted on Thursday, Feb. 10 at the Atlantis Reno sportsbook in Reno, Nevada.
NATIONAL LEAGUE WIN TOTALS
Team Wins – 2013 Wins – 2014 Wins – 2015 Win Total – 2016
Arizona 81 64 79 84 ½
Atlanta 96 79 67 65
Chicago Cubs 66 73 97 89
Cincinnati 90 76 64 71
Colorado 74 66 68 68 ½
L.A. Dodgers 92 94 92 87
Miami 62 77 71 80 ½
Milwaukee 74 82 68 71 ½
N.Y. Mets 74 79 90 88
Philadelphia 73 73 63 66 ½
Pittsburgh 94 88 98 87
San Diego 76 77 74 74
San Francisco 76 88 84 90
St. Louis 97 90 100 87 ½
Washington 86 96 83 87
AMERICAN LEAGUE WIN TOTALS
Team Wins – 2013 Wins – 2014 Wins – 2015 Win Total – 2016
Baltimore 85 96 81 80 ½
Boston 97 71 78 85 ½
Chicago White Sox 63 73 76 80 ½
Cleveland 92 85 81 84
Detroit 93 90 74 85
Houston 51 70 86 85 ½
Kansas City 86 89 95 87
L.A. Angels 78 98 85 82 ½
Minnesota 66 70 83 77 ½
N.Y. Yankees 85 84 87 85
Oakland 96 88 68 75 ½
Seattle 71 87 76 83
Tampa Bay 92 77 80 78
Texas 91 67 88 86
Toronto 74 83 93 87
MLB season win totals have never been like this before
By Jason LoganIt’s been a three-week span unlike any other for Steve Mikkelson, director of race and sports for the Atlantis Casino Resort Spa in Reno, Nevada.
On top of the circus that is Super Bowl – the single biggest betting day in the industry as well as the two-week build up to the “Big Game” – Mikkelson had his annual MLB season win totals scheduled for release on February 11, just four days removed Super Sunday.
“I only had three days to get these done this year, when I usually have 10, with Super Bowl on the seventh,” an exhausted Mikkelson told Covers just hours before his MLB win totals hit the board at the Atlantis sportsbook, making them the first operator to release the popular futures for the 10th straight year.
“I took the Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday off after the game and worked on them pretty much from the moment I got up to the time I went to bed,” he says. “I finished up at about 10:30 p.m. PT last night.”
Mikkelson, who isn’t a coffee drinker, loaded up his fridge with his weapon of choice – Diet Mountain Dew – and pounded out spread sheets on two laptops in his home office, scrupulously analyzing all 30 MLB teams, their projected lineups, pitching staffs, bullpens, backups, and top prospects. He then measured those factors against rival teams while taking into account baseball season breakdowns and predictions from preview publications, eventually landing at an estimated season win total for each club.
“I work for a couple hours, then take a break. It’s too much information to take in all at once, so I usually break it up into two hour sessions,” says Mikkelson. “For three days, baseball is the only thing you’re thinking about. I’d take an hour break and go out for lunch, just to clear my head.”
Mikkelson couldn’t even escape the pending MLB season win totals in his sleep.
“For the Giants, I’d go to sleep with one number in my head and by the time I woke up it would be a completely different number,” he laughs. “I’d be mulling over all the numbers and lineups in my head all night.”
Besides a tight deadline, Mikkelson also ran into a challenge when gauging the three highest season win totals on the board: the San Francisco Giants (90), Chicago Cubs (89), and New York Mets (88). Not only are these three clubs considered the class of the National League but they also have a massive following of loyal bettors, who blindly back the Over in the season wins market no matter where the team is projected to finish.
The Giants usually find their win total a tad inflated due to Reno’s close proximity to the Bay Area, and the amount on San Francisco fans that make their way to the Atlantis to bet baseball. However, Mikkelson says the number on the Giants, as well as the win totals for the Cubs and Mets are his original analysis without boosting their expected record by a two, three or four wins to protect against that public action.
“This year was different, and with them being good teams I really went with what I thought it (their win totals) should be and didn’t see a point in inflating it,” Mikkelson says. “As for the Giants, I really like this team. If Matt Cain can rebound and be anywhere close to what he was before, I have high expectations for this team.”
There are two teams that Mikkelson didn’t hold in such high regard and actually feels a little nervous about as it pertains to their opening win totals: the Los Angeles Angels (82.5) and Oakland Athletics (75.5). He says he may be a bit lower on those two clubs than other oddsmakers, once rival sportsbooks start posting their numbers in the coming weeks, and also expects money on them due to their proximity.
The American League was a much tougher group to handicap, admits Mikkelson, due to the amount of quality teams and parity in many divisions. The National League, on the other hand, has eight viable contenders playing for five postseason spots, with plenty of clubs in a “rebuilding” mode.
“That’s something we didn’t see in past years. You never had teams that were open about their plans, being in a transition or rebuilding year,” says Mikkelson. “Now you have teams like the Brewers (71.5), who aren’t trying to win a lot of games this year, and the Braves (62), who are barely fielding a real baseball team. In the last two years, teams have become very public about their rebuilding or tanking and they’re not hiding it at all.”
Another reason why 2016 is a much different year for Mikkelson’s MLB season win totals is the recent implementation of mobile wagering with the Atlantis sportsbook. This is the first year their MLB win totals will be available to mobile bettors in Nevada, who must open an account and deposit in person at the Reno book but can then wager from anywhere inside the Silver State. And due to that, Mikkelson is expecting a record handle on the season win totals in 2016.
“We have as attractive a product as any on the market, so I hope it (mobile) does drive more business,” he says.
So, with that finished product hitting the board at the Atlantis sportsbook at 2 p.m. PT in Reno Thursday, will an exhausted Mikkelson breathe easy, relax and celebrate another year of being the first book in the pool when it comes to MLB season win totals?
Not if the Diet Mountain Dew has anything to do with it.
The time for relaxation and celebration doesn’t come until the first weekend of October when all those season win totals wagers have been graded Over or Under, and Mikkelson knows just how his book made out in the futures market.
“I enjoy doing it, I really do. We make money on them almost every single year,” he says. “It’s so cool to see, at the end of the year, three of four teams still in play for their season win total and those bets coming down to the final weekend of the season, to see whether you win or loss. You take pride in that.”
Three live betting long shots who could lead the MLB in home runs
By ANDREW CALEYThe Major League Baseball season is almost upon us and what do we love more about baseball than watching players hit awe-inspiring dingers?
Nothing. That’s what.
And what better way to enjoy those dingers, than with some cash on the line? The Westgate LV Superbook has released their odds for who will hit the most home runs in 2016 and while the obvious names like Giancarlo Stanton, Mike Trout and Bryce Harper top the list, lets take a look at some live long shots who could round the bases more than anyone else in 2016.
Nolan Arenado, Colorado Rockies (25/1)
It’s never bad to back a power hitter who calls Coors Field his home park and that’s exactly where Rockies’ third baseman Nolan Arenado sets up shop. The 24 year old had a serious breakout season for the Rockies in 2015, knocking out 42 home runs to go along with 130 RBIs and a gawdy .575 slugging percentage (good for third in the bigs behind just Harper and Trout).
Those 42 dingers were good for third in the majors’ behind just the Orioles’ first baseman Chris Davis (47) and the Mariners’ designated hitter Nelson Cruz (44), so just in that regard, Arenado at 25/1 seems like a bargain. Add in Coors Field, which ranked first in ballpark OPS (.846), first in ballpark slugging percentage (.490) and fourth in HR/game (2.49) in 2015 and you have a recipe for a lot of dingers.
The only detractor from Arenado is that he had just 28 home runs in 918 at bats prior to 2015. Last season was also the first year in his three major league seasons in which Arenado played more than 133 games. However, if he manages to stay healthy for the majority of the season there’s no reason to think Arenado can’t be among the top home run hitters in 2016.
Carlos Correa, Houston Astros (30/1)
Talk about announcing your presence as a big leaguer. The Astros’ rookie shortstop hit 22 home runs in just 387 at bats last season. That was a home run in one in every 17.6 at bats. That would have been good for 16th best in the majors among qualified batters. His .512 slugging percentage would have also been good for 17th in the majors.
The 21-year-old right-handed hitting Correa also gets to take advantage of a full season of at bats in the hitter friendly Minute Maid Park in Houston. The Astros’ home field, which has one of one of the shortest porch’s in left field (315 feet), saw the fifth most home runs per game in 2015 (2.44). Correa hit 12 of his 22 home runs there in 2015.
If Correra gets even better in his first full season at the big league level (which many people are projecting), there is no telling how many dingers Correra could knock out of the park this season and 30/1 is a number that could look a steal come September.
Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles (100/1)
Manny Machado did not disappoint in his first full season after tearing a ligament in his right knee in August of 2014. The 23-year-old Orioles’ third baseman played all 162 games in 2015 and finished tied for 13th in the majors with 35 home runs and 20th with a .502 slugging percentage and was 21st with a .861 OPS.
Not many have a more ideal situation than Machado when it comes to going yard. First of all Orioles Park at Camden Yards is one of the most hitter friendly parks in baseball. There were more home runs hit there per game, than at any other park in the majors at 2.74 per game and ranked second in slugging percentage at .442. Machado also has the luxury of hitting ahead of last season’s home run king, Chris Davis (15/1), who slugged 47 home runs. That is what is called lineup protection.
While Machado did play in every game in 2015, bettors should acknowledge he has had a history of knee injuries. On top of which, last season was the first in which he showed true power numbers. But at 100/1, that value is almost too good to pass up.
Check out the complete list of home run odds from the Westgate LV Superbook below:
GIANCARLO STANTON 7/1
MIKE TROUT 12/1
BRYCE HARPER 12/1
EDWIN ENCARNACION 15/1
KRIS BRYANT 15/1
JOSH DONALDSON 15/1
CHRIS DAVIS 15/1
NELSON CRUZ 20/1
JOSE ABREU 25/1
JOSE BAUTISTA 25/1
PAUL GOLDSCHMIDT 25/1
NOLAN ARENADO 25/1
TODD FRAZIER 25/1
J.D. MARTINEZ 25/1
MIGUEL SANO 30/1
CARLOS CORREA 30/1
ANTHONY RIZZO 30/1
ALBERT PUJOLS 30/1
GEORGE SPRINGER 30/1
MIGUEL CABRERA 30/1
CARLOS GONZALEZ 30/1
MARK TRUMBO 40/1
JUSTIN UPTON 40/1
KHRIS DAVIS 60/1
TROY TULOWITZKI 60/1
EVAN GATTIS 80/1
JOEY VOTTO 80/1
PEDRO ALVAREZ 80/1
ADAM JONES 80/1
HANLEY RAMIREZ 100/1
DAVID ORTIZ 100/1
MANNY MACHADO 100/1
MARK TEIXEIRA 100/1
YOENIS CESPEDES 100/1
RYAN BRAUN 100/1
JOC PEDERSON 100/1
FREDDIE FREEMAN 100/1
JAY BRUCE 100/1
PRINCE FIELDER 100/1
KYLE SCHWARBER 100/1
YASIEL PUIG 100/1
MICHAEL CONFORTO 100/1
MAIKEL FRANCO 200/1
ADRIAN GONZALEZ 200/1
LUCAS DUDA 200/1
EVAN LONGORIA 200/1
CURTIS GRANDERSON 200/1
ANDREW McCUTCHEN 200/1
COREY DICKERSON 200/1
KYLE SEAGER 200/1
MATT KEMP 200/1
MATT ADAMS 200/1
KOLE CALHOUN 200/1
KENDRYS MORALES 200/1
BRIAN DOZIER 200/1
RANDAL GRICHUK 200/1
COREY SEAGER 200/1
FIELD 15/1DAVE COKIN
SAN DIEGO PADRES Win Total
Take: PADRES Under 73.5
2015 turned out to be a big disappointment for Padres fans. The organization rolled the dice in an effort to contend, and let’s just say things didn’t work out very well. No high expectations this time around, as is pretty clear by the 73.5 win option that’s now available.
I’m looking at the projected opening day roster for the 2016 Padres and having a great deal of trouble comprehending how they’ll win even that many games. This is a really bad looking baseball team, and my guess it that they’re going to get worse as the season wears on. That’s because the Padres are almost going to be forced to do some selling at the deadline. They should have done that last summer, and didn’t. Now they might not have any choice.
The Padres have one sure thing in their rotation in Tyson Ross. But Ross is a sure thing #3 starting pitcher, not a staff ace. He has the stuff to become one, and maybe he outs it all together this season. But Ross, while a very talented guy, is a borderline #2 right now. James Shields could bounce back to a #2 level, but that’s very much in question as he’s now 34 and has logged lots of innings. Andrew Cashner was a tremendous tease with that dynamite fastball. But he’s now 29, the secondary stuff doesn’t wow anyone, and I think Cashner needs a change in scenery.
As for the position players, “ugh” is probably the best one-word assessment I can come up with. This is a very bad looking lineup. In viewing one of the projection sets for the Padres, Wil Myers was the top graded WAR player at 2.0. Matt Kemp was next at 1.9, and I think my hair stylist was third. She’s 63 and in pretty much the same shape I’m in, so that kind of tells you what I think about the likely everyday lineup for the Friars.
I don’t think it’s inconceivable that this Padres team flirts with triple digit losses in 2016. They’re light years behind the Giants and Dodgers on paper, and probably the Diamondbacks as well. The Rockies are likely to be lousy again, but I’ve even got them ahead of San Diego.
This is my first actual bet of the 2016 MLB season, and it’s on the Padres Under 73.5 wins.
NEWSLETTER MLB Baseball Prediction From Alan Harris
Take San Diego Padres ‘Under’ 73.5 Wins
We didn’t love anything on the Saturday soccer or UFC Cards, so this weeks Play will be a MLB Play since Spring Training is right around the corner. The Padres had high hopes coming into the 2015 season. They made big moves in bringing in a brand new outfield (Kemp, Myers, Upton) along with Craig Kimbrel to solidify the back end of the bullpen. Things were a disaster for the Padres from opening day, and they then compounded things by not jumping ship and moving some of those guys at the trade deadline. They stood pat and when the season came to an end, they were no where near the playoffs and they were stuck with a bunch of big, bad contracts. When looking at the Padres opening day roster, it shouldn’t shock anyone if this team approached 100 losses when it’s all said and done. Their rotation isn’t much better, and while Joe Ross looks to be a legit pitcher, he isn’t an ace and right now he’s the Padres No. 1. Who knows what James Shields is going to bring to the table, and while Andrew Cashner has had some good moments, he’s all fastball and at some point major league hitters start to catch up to that. Taking a look at the starting eight position players, there isn’t a player on the list that is expected to have what someone would even classify as a “good” season. Wil Myers and Matt Kemp are probably the two best players on the team, and neither of those guys has a WAR projected over 2.0 coming in to season. Throw in the fact that San Diego is light years behind the Giants and Dodgers, and we have them behind the Diamondbacks as well right now. Hell, at the end of the season, we wouldn’t be shocked if they actually finished in last place behind the Rockies. It’s going to be a long year for Padres fans and the only way we can play their team total is under, so we’ll make that our Weekly Newsletter Play for this week.2016 MLB Divisional Odds
By VI NewsOpening Day of the 2016 pro baseball season begins Monday April 3, 2016 as 30 teams will look to win the World Series.
Getting to the postseason isn’t easy but six teams will earn a spot by winning their division.
The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened their MLB Division Odds recently, which are listed below.
The oddsmakers at the SuperBook are only expecting two teams to repeat and one of them, the Kansas City Royals, are listed as co-favorites in their division.
2016 MLB Divison Odds
National League East
2015 Winner – Mets
Washington Nationals 6/5
New York Mets 10/13
Miami Marlins 12/1
Atlanta Braves 80/1
Philadelphia Phillies 80/1National League Central
2015 Winner – Cardinals
Chicago Cubs 1/2
St. Louis Cardinals 15/4
Pittsburgh Pirates 15/4
Milwaukee Brewers 80/1
Cincinnati Reds 80/1National League West
2015 Winner – Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers 11/10
San Francisco Giants 6/5
Arizona Diamondbacks 7/1
San Diego Padres 20/1
Colorado Rockies 50/1American League East
2015 Winner – Blue Jays
Boston Red Sox 9/4
Toronto Blue Jays 11/4
New York Yankees 11/4
Tampa Bay Rays 9/2
Baltimore Orioles 10/1American League Central
2015 Winner – Royals
Cleveland Indians 2/1
Kansas City Royals 2/1
Detroit Tigers 5/1
Chicago White Sox 6/1
Minnesota Twins 6/1American League West
2015 Winner – Rangers
Houston Astros 4/5
Texas Rangers 4/1
Seattle Mariners 9/2
Los Angeles Angels 13/2
Oakland Athletics 20/1Odds Subject to Change – Updated 2.28.16
Five steps to safely bet MLB Spring Training action
By Jason LoganBetting MLB Spring Training is right up there with eating that week-old slice of pizza at the back of your fridge and lending your car to that sweet girl with the tramp stamp you met at the bar last night (she said she had to pick up her aunt from the hospital) – not the best idea.
But for those of you dealing with massive intestinal discomfort or the ones describing your 1997 Isuzu Trooper to the local police, you know that sometimes you just can’t help yourself.
If you are going to bet on Cactus and Grapefruit League action this spring, at least follow these guidelines.
Do your homework
Like betting any preseason sport, you have to know what the gameplan is before even thinking of putting your hard-earned coin on the line. Read, read and read some more.
“One advantage that bettors have in these exhibition games is information,” Matt Fargo says. “Similar to NFL preseason games where coaches give out their player rotations and game plans, managers in baseball are very up front on how long starters will be pitching for and what sort of lineups they are going with.”
Listen to what the manager is hoping to accomplish this spring: Is he working in prospects or trying to sure up the rotation? And study up on key players and how they approach spring ball: Do they pace themselves in March or come out swinging? We hate to sound like a public service announcement, but “The more you know…”
Start cautiously
The first few games of spring training might as well be a high school science fair. Managers are experimenting with lineups and rotations, mixing this guy with that guy and swapping bodies like he’s rolling out hockey lines. A new managers are working with players for the first time, still getting an idea of how to best use their talents.
Players are also a tough read in the opening slate of exhibition games. Some guys are easing into the action, others are battling for positions, and others are just trying to stay healthy. Keep an ear to the base paths or sit back and watch how a manager is treating the first weeks of spring ball.
Find the right pitching matchups
As Spring Training marches on, starting pitchers take on more and more work. Guys will go at least five innings, giving you a pretty good idea of what to expect from the staff. The best situation is when you have an ace matched up against a No. 4 or No. 5 starter, or a young prospect trying to break into the bigs. Managers aren’t quick to change up pitchers in the spring, even if a guy is getting hammered.
Betting the “better” team
Roster depth and a surplus of talent can go a long way in Spring Training. Since veterans tend to limit themselves in the exhibition slate, knowing who’s behind them is imperative to betting spring baseball.
A talent-loaded lineup can make up for the absence of one or two big bats, while a shallow roster struggles without those elite hitters at the plate. It’s the reason baseball bettors see many of the same clubs excelling spring after spring.
Ride hot teams, fade cold ones
There is almost zero consistency in Spring Training, so when you start to see a pattern – winning or losing – jump on it. Managers couldn’t care less about the results, so don’t expect them to rush to right the ship if their club struggles in the spring. And if a team is winning, the skip must be doing something right and will only tweak minor details.
Three live long shots who could win the 2016 World Series
By ANDREW CALEYIf you had placed a World Series future bet on the Houston Astros or the Texas Rangers before Opening Day last season, you would have been very happy come October.
Both of these American League teams ended up making the postseason despite being 100/1 long shots to win the World Series, and while in the end, both the Rangers and Astros ended up falling short of the Fall Classic it goes to show there is real value to be had in World Series futures
Heck, you probably would have been thrilled with a wager on the eventual World Series champion Kansas City Royals, or the Toronto Blue Jays. They both entered the season at 25/1 and met in the ALCS.
While it is the Cubs who are big 4/1 faves to win it all this season, remember it was all about the Nationals last year and they didn’t even make the postseason.
So, as players congregate at spring training, let’s look at three live long shots to win the World Series and try to find this year’s Houston or Texas.
Chicago White Sox (25/1)
Currently the White Sox are the only team on the board at 25/1 and since the defending World Series champs started their last year, this is a good place to start. Last year the South Siders were hoping to make a big jump last year, but could never really find their groove and ended up finishing fourth in AL Central at 76-86.
But that hasn’t stopped the White Sox from trying to go for it all again this year. They brought in former Reds third baseman Todd Frazier to finally give slugger Jose Abreu some protection and balance to their lineup. If Adam Eaton and Melky Cabrera can consistently get on base, there will be plenty of opportunities to score. Brett Lawrie comes in to take over at second base and Dioner Navarro and Alex Avila gives them catcher/DH depth.
What could take the Pale Hose over the top is the potential at the front end of their rotation. Led by All-Star Chris Sale, along with Jose Quintana and a full year Carlos Rodon and this unit could be a very dangerous one. Sale led the majors in strikeouts/9-innings (11.82) to go along with a 3.41 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP. With David Robertson anchoring the bullpen, the White Sox could be ready to make a move in the Central
Seattle Mariners (40/1)
The Mariners have been one of those teams the last few seasons that make you ask, ‘what could happen if they ever put it all together?’
Unfortunately for the Mariners and their fans, they just haven’t. They entered last season as one of the sexy pics to make the jump to the post season, but came out of the gate losing seven of their first 10 games and never recovered, finishing the season 4th in AL West at 76-86. Will 2016 be the year it changes for the M’s?
Everything for the Mariners starts with their rotation, headed by superstar Felix Hernandez, whom had a down year by his standards last season. ‘The King’s’ ERA was above 3.50 for the first time since 2007, so even a slight bounce back to the norm is a boost. Retaining Hisashi Iwakuma and bringing in Wade Miley and Nathan Karns was big. If talented youngster Taijuan Walker can figure it out, this rotation could be very, very good. Adding Joaquin Benoit and Steve Cishek to what was a terrible bullpen should also help a lot.
As for the offense, everything is fueled by Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz. People thought Cruz would struggle moving from Baltimore to Seattle, but he still finished 2nd in the bigs with 44 homers to go along with 93 RBIs. If Cano can bounce back from his worst season since 2008 and they get what is expected to be a more balanced lineup with the addition of Adam Lind ans Nori Aoki, then the M’s can contend in the AL West this year.
Tampa Bay Rays (60/1)
The Rays continue to do what they do. Try to extract the maximum talent from a payroll that regularly ranks near the bottom of the league. And 2016 will be no different.
What also shouldn’t be any different about the Rays this season is their starting pitching. From Scott Kazmir to David Price, the Rays have always featured great starters over the years and 2016 could feature some very good ones and it all starts with budding superstar Chris Archer. Archer pitched to a 3.23 ERA a 1.14 WHIP and had the fourth highest strikeouts/9-inning ratio in the bigs. That’s a good starting point.
The Rays are also banking on getting mostly-healthy seasons from Alex Cobb (out until midseason after Tommy John surgery), Matt Moore and Drew Smyly, who all suffered or were recovering from injuries last season. Throw in Jake Odorizzi coming off a breakout campaign (3.35 ERA, 1.15 WHIP in 2015) and this starting rotation could be even better than the one that finished sixth in starters ERA last year.
Tamp Bay’s biggest problem will be supporting those pitchers with enough runs to win games, beginning with Evan Longoria. If the Rays’ all-time leader in most offensive categories can have a bounce back season that’s a start. A full season from Desmond Jennings wouldn’t hurt either. Add in the rise of center fielder Kevin Kiermaier and the additions of Corey Dickerson and Steve Pearce and the Rays could have just enough timely hitting to become a contender.
Heading into spring training, Cubs big faves to win first World Series since 1908
By ANDREW CALEYWe are just days away from pitchers and catchers reporting to spring training camps and as the start of the 2016 MLB season gets closer, one thing seems to be for certain. People think this is finally the Chicago Cubs year.
After an offseason of adding outfielder Jason Heyward, second baseman Ben Zobrist and pitcher John Lackey to bolster an already stacked lineup full of rising stars like Kris Bryant, Jake Arrieta and Jorge Soler, the Cubs are the far-and-away favorites to win their first World Series since 1908.
The Westgate LV Superbook has the Cubs listed as the relatively big 4/1 favorites to win the 2016 Fall Classic, while the next closest team, the Houston Astros, are on the board all the way down at 10/1.
After the Cubs and Astros, there are five teams with 12/1 odds, including the Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Mets, Washington Nationals, Boston Red Sox and San Francisco Giants.
That list doesn’t include defending World Series champions, the Kansas City Royals, who might be a tad disrespected on the board at 18/1.
So can the Cubs’ live up to the pressure of being World Series favorites and end their 108-year-old curse? That’s why they play the games.
Check out the complete list of World Series odds courtesy the Westgate LV Superbook below:
CUBS 4/1
ASTROS 10/1
DODGERS 12/1
METS 12/1
NATIONALS 12/1
RED SOX 12/1
GIANTS 12/1
BLUE JAYS 14/1
YANKEES 14/1
CARDINALS 16/1
ROYALS 18/1
INDIANS 18/1
RANGERS 20/1
PIRATES 20/1
TIGERS 20/1
WHITE SOX 25/1
ANGELS 30/1
DIAMONDBACKS 35/1
MARINERS 40/1
ORIOLES 50/1
RAYS 60/1
TWINS 60/1
REDS 100/1
A’S 100/1
PADRES 100/1
BREWERS 100/1
MARLINS 100/1
BRAVES 300/1
ROCKIES 300/1
PHILLIES 300/1NEWSLETTER MLB Baseball Prediction From Alan Harris
Take Los Angeles Angels ‘Under’ 82 Wins
The AL West turned out to be a much better division than people thought last year, and it looks as if this year it’s only going to get better. The Rangers surprised everyone with their 2015 campaign, and the Astros arrived a year or maybe two years faster than expected and it looks like they are ready to contend for a number of years. The A’s had a down year, which can mostly be attributed to an awful bullpen. And while the Mariners were a complete flop in 2015, looking at their 2016 roster would lead you to believe they can bounce back and be much better than they were last season. That brings us to the only team in the division that seems to be declining, the Los Angeles Angels. Yes, they have probably the best player in the game in Mike Trout, but after that the team has a ton of question marks. Albert Pujols is on the down side of his career and is always an injury concern. And while the team will hit some home runs with Pujols, Trout, Cole Calhoun and CJ Cron, they are projected to strike out a ton. That’s about the best we can say for the Angels offense. The pick up of Andrelton Simmons at SS will help the defense a ton, but he’s not a guy known for the stick and the catching, whatever platoon they wind up with in left field and 2B Johnny Giavotella, all leave something to be desired. The pitching staff is also a sore spot, and it looks as if that could be the downfall of the team. Garrett Richards could return to his 2014 form, but he’s not an ace and never will be. CJ Wilson is coming into the season off left elbow surgery, and Jered Weaver is clearly on the wrong side of his career. The four and five spots are nothing to write home about with Andrew Heaney and Hector Santiago bringing up the rear of the rotation. We’re all use to the Angels being contenders as Opening Day rolls around, but this year’s entry is the worst that they have put out on the field in years. Throw in the fact they have one of the worst farm systems in the league and it looks as if the Angels may wind up in the basement of the AL West when it’s all said and done. It’s going to be a long year for the Angels fans, and the only way we can play their team total is under so we’ll make that our weekly newsletter play for this week.American League East Betting Preview: Will Red Sox jump from worst to first?
By Steve MerrilThe American League East is expected to feature one of the tightest division races in baseball in 2016. You can make an argument for almost all five teams to win the division and despite two straight last place finishes, thanks to some big offseason acquisitions the Red Sox are the slight favorites over the defending champion Blue Jays.
Baltimore Orioles (2015: 81-81, -352 units, 73-80-9 O/U)
Division odds: +900
Season win total: 79.5Why bet the Orioles: Buck Showalter is the reason the Orioles have finished .500 or better in four straight seasons after going through over a decade of losing. He is a solid manager that can keep Baltimore in contention. The Orioles strength is their bullpen and if the starting rotation can revert back to its success of two years ago, they will be relevant in September once again.
Why not bet the Orioles: The aforementioned starting rotation is a huge weakness on this team. In 2014, the team ERA was 3.43 which was third best in the American League but that jumped to 4.05 last season including 4.53 from the starters. Making matters worse, Baltimore lost its best starter Wei-Yin Chen to the Marlins via free agency and failed to make an upgrade in the offseason.
Season win total pick: Under 79.5 Wins
Boston Red Sox (2015: 78-84, -651 units, 83-73-6 O/U)
Division odds: +185
Season win total: 86.5Why bet the Red Sox: Major upgrades to both the starting rotation and the bullpen should improve the staff that finished with a 4.31 ERA, 25th in baseball. Boston signed starter David Price to a $217 million contract and traded four prospects to the Padres for closer Craig Kimbrel. First baseman Hanley Ramirez and third baseman Pablo Sandoval have nowhere to go but up after dismal seasons a year ago.
Why not bet the Red Sox: While the Price signing was a big advantage, the rest of the rotation is still pretty bad and it may take a midseason trade to keep Boston in the running. The offense carried the Red Sox but it was not good enough as they finished with a losing record for the third time in four years. Defensively, the Red Sox were eighth worst in fielding percentage and errors.
Season win total pick: Under 86.5 Wins
New York Yankees (2015: 87-75, -339 units, 77-81-4 O/U)
Division odds: +375
Season win total: 85.5Why bet the Yankees: New York was three games better in 2015 than the previous season but was unable to catch the Blue Jays in the American League East. Still, the Yankees made the postseason as a Wild Card and bring back virtually everyone. The additions of Starlin Castro, who takes over at second base, and reliever Aroldis Chapman should have them in the mix again.
Why not bet the Yankees: While the Yankees have improved their roster, it may not be enough to keep up with the rest of the division. Chapman is out for the first 30 games of the season and the starting rotation had trouble staying healthy last season. Even if they avoid the injury bug, aside from Masahiro Tanaka, there are numerous question marks with the ability of the rest of the rotation.
Season win total pick: Under 85.5 Wins
Tampa Bay Rays (2015: 80-82, -542 units, 73-76-13 O/U)
Division odds: +650
Season win total: 82.5Why bet the Rays: Pitching can go a long way to success and the Rays have plenty of it. They led the American League in starter ERA at 3.63 and are buoyed by Cy Young candidate Chris Archer. Despite an offense that finished 25th in runs scored, Tampa Bay was only two games under .500. If they can find some production with the bats, the Rays could be a sleeper in the American League East.
Why not bet the Rays: Replicating the success of the starting rotation could be difficult as there were several overachievers in the mix. The Rays did nothing much to improve the offense in the offseason as they got Steven Pearce and Corey Dickerson which is not saying much. This is the weakest offense in the division so the starters are going to be asked to again carry the load and overachieve.
Season win total pick: Over 82.5 Wins
Toronto Blue Jays (2015: 93-69, +1045 units, 78-73-11 O/U)
Division odds: +190
Season win total: 86.5Why bet the Blue Jays: The best offense in baseball returns virtually intact with Ben Revere being the lone defection. He was dealt to Washington for relief pitcher Drew Storen to solidify and already solid bullpen. With the departure of David Price, Marcus Stroman is the ace of the staff and he proved what he can do in seven starts after coming back from a torn ACL.
Why not bet the Blue Jays: While the offense is potent, it can only go so far and it will be tough to duplicate the mashing from last season. After Stroman and Marco Estrada, the starting rotation falls off considerably and it will be up to R.A. Dickey and newly acquired J.A. Happ to step up. Toronto could be an injury or two away from just being average once again.
Season win total pick: Over 86.5 Wins
NL East Betting Preview: Can Mets dominant rotation deliver another division title?
By Steve Merril2015 was supposed to be the Nationals’ year. But it was the Mets who took over the NL East and won not only the division, but the NL Pennant, thanks to dominant pitching and some clutch hitting. But postseason hero Daniel Murphy has traded in his Mets uniform for that of the rival Nats. Has the division swung back in Washington’s favor or is the Mets’ rotation just too strong?
Atlanta Braves (2015: 67-95, -1,643 units, 81-72-9 O/U)
Division odds: +8,000
Season win total: 67.5Why bet the Braves: They play in a weak division that saw two other teams (Marlins and Phillies) go just 71-91 and 63-99 last season. Atlanta improved the top of their batting order with the addition of outfielder Ender Inciarte and shortstop Erick Aybar. Right-hander Julio Teheran, has the potential to be an ace for this pitching rotation.
Why not bet the Braves: They went just 67-95 last season despite a solid 28-18 record in 1-run games. Had they not been fortunate to win 61 percent of those close games, their record would have been even worse. In fact, their X-WL (expected won-loss record using runs scored differential) was 61-101 last year.
Season win total pick: Under 67.5 wins
Miami Marlins (2015: 71-91, -1,413 units, 77-77-8 O/U)
Division odds: +1,200
Season win total: 79.5Why bet the Marlins: There is talent at the top of the lineup card, with second baseman Dee Gordon, who batted .333 last season with 58 stolen bases, and right fielder Giancarlo Stanton who clobbered 27 home runs in just 74 games played. That would translate to 59 home runs over a full 162 game season. The pitching rotation added lefty Wei-Yin Chen, which gives Miami a solid second starter behind ace Jose Fernandez.
Why not bet the Marlins: The team did little to improve their overall roster from last year’s 71-91 squad. The bottom of the batting order is very weak and other than Stanton and Justin Bour at the top, no other player had more than 10 home runs last season. Durability is an issue as the team’s best hitter (Stanton) missed 88 games last year, while their best pitcher (Fernandez) only started 11 games.
Season win total pick: Over 79.5 wins
New York Mets (2015: 90-72, 589 units, 84-72-6 O/U)
Division odds: -130
Season win total: 89.5Why bet the Mets: The defending National League champions have the best 1-2-3 punch of any starting rotation in the league with Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, and Noah Syndergaard. They also have a reliable closer in Jeurys Familia, who pitched to a 1.85 ERA last season while converting 43 of 48 save opportunities.
Why not bet the Mets: They lost second baseman Daniel Murphy in the offseason to division rival Washington. Murphy was the team’s best offensive weapon in the postseason and the most consistent player in the regular season (130 games played). Durability for the rest of the lineup is a major concern as outfielder Yoenis Cespedes and third baseman David Wright missed 229 regular season games combined last year.
Season win total pick: Over 89.5 wins
Philadelphia Phillies (2015: 63-99, -842 units, 86-64-12 O/U)
Division odds: +8,000
Season win total: 65.5Why bet the Phillies: They have some young talent which could surprise. Third baseman Maikel Franco hit 14 dingers with 50 RBI in just 80 games last season. His numbers should be even better this year in a full season at the big league level. The team also has power at first base with Ryan Howard and Darin Ruf combining for 35 home runs and 116 RBI last year.
Why not bet the Phillies: The pitching rotation is the worst in the league. They had a 4.69 ERA last season which was only ahead of the Rockies who play in thin air and altitude, while their 5.09 ERA on the road was the worst of any team. The Phillies’ top two starting pitchers this year will be Jeremy Hellickson and Charlie Morton. Hellickson’s ERA has been 4.52 or worse in each of the past three seasons, while Morton’s career ERA is just 4.54. The bullpen provides even less support.
Season win total pick: Under 65.5 wins
Washington Nationals (2015: 83-79, -1,887 units, 83-71-8 O/U)
Division odds: +120
Season win total: 88.5Why bet the Nationals: The team now has extra motivation and value after underachieving last season and missing the postseason despite being the preseason World Series favorite. Washington is still loaded with talent, including the best overall player in the league in outfielder Bryce Harper. Pair him with three strong starting pitchers in Max Scherzer, Gio Gonzalez, and Stephen Strasburg and the Nats are primed to bounce back. They also acquired former Mets second baseman Daniel Murphy in the offseason.
Why not bet the Nationals: The Nationals only went 83-79 last season despite playing in the weak NL East division, which had three other teams go 71-91, 67-95, and 63-99. Washington was only 39-45 in all non-division games. They also lost their second best starting pitcher, Jordan Zimmermann, in the offseason to the Tigers.
Season win total pick: Over 88.5 wins
NEWSLETTER MLB Baseball Prediction From Alan Harris
Take Milwaukee Brewers ‘Under’ 69.5 Wins
The Milwaukee Brewers have a chance to be the worst team in the National League. Some may think that is a bold statement in a league that also has the Phillies. However, looking at the two projected rosters, we think the Brewers will be in the basement at the end of the season. They really aren’t trying to sugar coat anything in Milwaukee as they have pretty much come out and said that they are in rebuild mode and while that’s probably the best thing for the organization, it’ll leave them flirting with 100 losses here in 2016. The projected starting rotation is about as bad as we remember a major league team trotting out on an every day basis. Jimmy Nelson is a decent No. 3 pitcher, but he’s currently slotted as the team’s ace and it’s pretty much down hill from there. Matt Garza, Wily Peralta, Chase Anderson and Taylor Jungmann round out the rotation in what basically amounts to a starting rotation that one might see if the Brewers were an expansion team this season. The hitters on this team are nothing to get too excited about either. They have Ryan Braun, who while still a good player is no longer a superstar, and Jonathan Lucroy, if healthy is one of the top catchers in the league. After that, there are a ton of question marks with guys like Domingo Santana, Aaron Hill, Chris Carter, Scooter Gennett, Jonathan Villar and a bunch of other mix-and-match guys that when sent out to the field, will have trouble scoring runs. There are some good prospects in the system, but they won’t be ready this year and because of that it’ll be a long year for fans of the Brew Crew. We’re actually shocked that this number was so high as we have Milwaukee pegged around the 63-64 win mark, so playing the under here for us was a no-brainer. When you take a look at the Brewers opening-day roster, you will see why.American League Central betting preview: The tightest division in baseball?
By Matt FargoIt may be a little strange to think about because of how bad some of these teams have been over the years, but from top to bottom, the American League Central could be the tightest division race in baseball. With the favorite at +170 and the long shot is just +900. Oh yeah, the defending World Series champs are here too.
Chicago White Sox (2015: 76-86, -1,266 units, 76-79-7 O/U)
Division odds: +560
Season win total: 80.5Why bet the White Sox: Many thought last year was when Chicago would make a big move up and this year, that is the thought once again. The White Sox improved their offense with the additions of Todd Frazier and Brett Lawrie and they possess one of the top starters in baseball in Chris Sale while having arguably the most underrated in Jose Quintana. Defensively, they are improved too which can help an average bullpen.
Why not bet the White Sox: Chicago hit the free agent market last year and struck out big time and it is possible Frazier has hit his max potential while Lawrie is nothing special. The bottom of the batting lineup and the bottom of the rotation are both weak. Only the Mariners, Marlins, and Padres have longer postseason droughts than Chicago so do these players know how to win?
Season win total pick: Under 80.5 Wins
Cleveland Indians (2015: 81-80, -1,320 units, 79-80-2 O/U)
Division odds: +175
Season win total: 85.5Why bet the Indians: The Indians have now had three straight winning seasons so they know how to win, but need to take the next step. The starting rotation is one of the best in the league led by 2014 Cy Young Winner Corey Kluber and followed by Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar, each coming off 14-win seasons. The bullpen had the second lowest ERA in the league last season.
Why not bet the Indians: Michael Brantley, the most consistent hitter over the last three years, had surgery on his right shoulder and could miss the first month of the regular season. This is not good news for a horrible offense that did nothing to improve in the offseason. While Kluber won the CY Young two years ago, he led the league in losses last year so we are not sure what to expect.
Season win total pick: Under 85.5 Wins
Detroit Tigers (2015: 74-87, -1,030 units, 85-68-8 O/U)
Division odds: +500
Season win total: 81.5Why bet the Tigers: Detroit went from first to worst so there is definitely value with the Tigers this season as injuries played a big role in their decline. They signed Jordan Zimmerman away from Washington and he has been very consistent when healthy. Justin Verlander had a great second half, posting a 2.80 ERA after missing time and pitching poorly early. The offense should be potent again.
Why not bet the Tigers: The Tigers big three, Verlander, Cabrera and Martinez, are 33, 33 and 37 so the fact they were all injured last season is not that surprising. The trades of David Price and Yoenis Cespedes brought in some excellent young talent but is still pretty unproven. Detroit is on the decline while the once youthful teams around them are catching up quickly with Kansas City already moving past.
Season win total pick: Over 81.5 Wins
Kansas City Royals (2015: 95-67, +51,944 units, 73-75-14 O/U)
Division odds: +170
Season win total: 84.5Why bet the Royals: After winning 95 games during the regular season and capturing the World Series, there seems to be a ton of value with the Royals. The saying goes ‘defense wins championships’ and Kansas City proved that correct with the best defense in the league. This is a very athletic team that can win many different ways even though the long ball is not one of those.
Why not bet the Royals: The big factor now is after two successful years, other teams have the scouting ability to beat the Royals. As mentioned, the offense can rarely win with just one swing of the bat. While it was a given that Johnny Cueto was not going to sign here, his loss will be felt and his replacement is Ian Kennedy. The teams in the Central are not getting any worse.
Season win total pick: Over 84.5 Wins
Minnesota Twins (2015: 83-79, +2,029 units, 72-78-12 O/U)
Division odds: +900
Season win total: 79.5Why bet the Twins: Manager Paul Molitor thrived in his first season in Minnesota as he led the team to a 13-game improvement and a second place finish. Winning is contagious and after four straight losing seasons, Molitor has brought in a winning culture. The starting rotation improved immensely last year and should be better again while the bullpen will be a lot healthier this year.
Why not bet the Twins: Were the Twins that much better or were the other teams besides Kansas City underachievers? Probably a little bit of both. The offense remains a work in progress as besides Brian Dozier and Joe Mauer, many people would be hard-pressed to name another player in the batting order. An average Ervin Santana is the No. 1 starter with a lot of wild cards behind him.
Season win total pick: Over 79.5 Wins
DOES GODZILLA LIVE IN YOUR NEIGHBORHOOD?
by Greg Shaker
Greg Shaker Wed, Mar 24 2010 9:11 AMBaseball Season is upon us and while many Bettors will be winding down and looking forward to the 2010 Football Season, I will be Revving it up over the next few months and producing profits that are simply not possible with football and hoops. Why is that? Because Baseball is not only a different animal, it is GODZILLA and the Japanese People in my neighborhood will once again be running for the hills. Baseball, unlike the other two major sports allows us to actually win more money than we bet, giving us the decided advantage over the books. Not only that, but because Baseball is a finese Sport, the Ole Phrase, “Anyone can beatAnyone else on any given day” is much more truer with this sport.
Godzilla vs Staines by Kaptain Kobold.
Underdogs Verses Favorites
I am going to try and do my best not to bore you with tons of statistics in this exercise, but we are going to have to use a few so bear with me. Let’s begin with Moneyline Stats over the last 8 years. This length of time gives us enough scope to determine what has been profitable and what has not. Betting Underdogs has not been profitable. However, we can find some situations that have been and the fact is, some are just plain BAD ASS Profitable. If you had bet ever Underdog in the last 8 years in Baseball, you would have bet a lot of games and you would have lost just over 179 Units. That’s not too good but let’s look at the other side of the story. If you had bet every favorite you would lost over 730 Units. What does this mean? It means that you have over a 4 Times better chance of winning money if you bet Dogs. But you would still have lost right? Absolutely, because it can’t be that easy.Baseball Underdogs that are Profitable
There are situations that have produced large profits over the last 8 years and the most prevalent one makes a lot of sense. Teams that play each other a lot often are more motivated to win and so it would make senses that Win/Loss Numbers would be close to 50% than any other situation. And they are. If you had bet all Divisional games (Teams in the same Division) over the last 8 years, you would have over 202 Units of Profit in your Wallet. That is a lot of money. That is GODZILLA Money. In addition to that, Dogs have done much better in the second half of the season and once again for a simple reason. Late in the year, more public money comes into play. That drives Line upward, giving you more value for your buck. I am not telling you to bet all Division Dogs, I am telling you that this is always a good starting point but there is more.The Mid Relievers
There is a strong correlation between the strength of a team’s Bullpen and how well they do both in the standings, and in the money made playing them. When I talk about the Pens, I am not talking about who has the best closer, although that does come into play. The average starting pitcher rarely gets past the sixth inning. The average closer rarely gets past 2/3 of an inning. The fact is, as the season progresses, the starting thrower becomes less and less important and from about May 20th until the end of the season, starters will average just under 2/3 of an inning less than previous games. That is based on the last 8 years and that is a misconception to many. On average we can expect the guy who throws the first pitch to last about 5.2 innings meaning 1 out short of 6. In addition, we can expect him to leave the game more times than not, with runners in scoring position and usually with less than 2 outs. That is why
the mid-line throwers are so important. Here is some info from a selected year.Top 6 Money Teams of 2006
Minnesota
Oakland
New York Mets
Detroit
Kansas City
San DiegoThe Top 5 Bullpens of 2006
Minnesota
New York Mets
San Diego
Detroit
OaklandThese are listed in order and as you can see, the Top 6 Bullpen’s also comprised the Top 5 Money Teams. The only excpetion was KC who won some huge moneyline plays late in the year. Similar results can be found in previous years and latter years. In most cases, I would rather have a mediocre starter and a good Pen, than the opposite. That works out very well since that is the exact opposite of the way Vegas would like us to think. Vegas Sets Baseball Lines on two factors. The Starting Pitcher and now good or bad he is, and the overall perception of how good or bad a team is. It is our job to determine whether those guys who set the odds have done their homework and often they have not. Let’s remember one important thing. The best pitcher in the league can have a bad outing, the worst one can have a good one, bullpens generally remain fairly consistant. We do have a rate Bullpens for teams like Tampa Bay and Colorado differently because of the venue at which they play. But in most cases, Bullpen ERA is the best way to do this.
Betting Baseball Favorites
It is a fact that over the last 11 years, Baseball favorites have won right at 58% of the time. That means that if all betting lines during this timeframe were -135 plays, one would have broken even. But they are not. And the winning percentages of those games -140 to -220 do not go up as the line goes up. Anything past -140 is the worst losing proposition in Baseball. If you are playing these, you already have one leg in the well and GODZILLA is closing fast. Run Akatsuki, run!! I am not saying that these play don’t sometimes offer value, I am saying that when you bet them, you are already starting out in the hole. Tread lightly with these.Betting Baseball Runlines
This is probably my favorite subject but not my favorite bet. Anytime I have seen anyone on the internet talk about betting runlines, they always are doing so laying -1.5 Runs. Have we forgotten that we can bet +1.5 Runs? I do that often and when I do, it is usually a Dog Division Game with a pitcher on the mound coming off a poor effort. I am going to cover that Pitcher Poor effort thing in more detail but let’s stay focused on this for now. Below is the Probability of winning by more than 1 run when a team wins the game outright. These stats are from the last 9 years. They are very interesting indeed.-110s: 70.8%
-120s: 72.3%
-130s: 72.4%
-140s: 74.7%
-150s: 74.5%
-160s: 75.1%
-170s: 71.9%
-180s: 70.8%Does anyone see what I see? There is not that big a difference in teams winning by more than one run as the Moneyline Spread Rises. What does that mean for us? It means that playing -110’s to -140’s at -1.5 Runs is going to be more profitable than playing anything higher. But here’s the deal. Most Bettors don’t play -1.5 Runlines until the line gets to -150 and those ar the least profitable choice of all based on line value. I do rarely play any -1.5 Runline and all the Ducks have to be lined up before I even consider it, but when I do, I am going to be betting them to give me a + Money Payout and not a -. The Most interesting -1.5 Runline Stats are below and it denotes how often teams win by more than 1 run when they do win the game.
Home Teams: 68.5%
Road Teams: 77.1%Home Favorites: 69.7%
Road Favorites: 79.1%Road Favorites more than -120: 80.1
As we can see, Road -1.5 Runlines do much better than Home -1.5 Runlines. That is simply because the road team always gets their 9 times at bat whereas the home team does not. Vegas does adjust for this fact with lower runline payouts for road -1.5 runline teams.
Additional Thoughts
I could write an entire book on other situations that are winning propositions and I will have more info as the season progresses. I am going to have a separate article on Winning Baseball Totals a little later in the Spring. I do want to let everyone know that some of these stats here come from various websites as well as some that I keep myself. Let’s briefly talk about two of my favorite situations though. The first is The Bounceback Pitcher. I love this one because it gives us two things. It gives us a starter who is motivated to perform well following a not so spiffy performance. And it gives us a Betting Line that is usually out of whack. As Stated before, most bettors bet starting pitchers and these people also usually bet against throwers who are not performing well. The fact is, that is the best time to back a starter. The Second One is The Bounceback Hitter. This is along the same line as the previous one. Teams off ZERO Runs scored get good line value and over the last 6 years have turned a profit each and every year. This is one to look for throughout the season.There is a reason why I have produced a profit betting baseball over the last 19 years and it is because I always put myself in the best possible winning position. If you do that, you will win also, and the Japanese People in your neighbohood will pay the price.
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