- April 21, 2016 at 9:13 am #41288
Preview: Pirates at Padres
GAME: Pittsburgh Pirates (7-8) at San Diego Padres (6-9)
DATE/TIME: Thursday, April 21 – 9:10 PM EST
WHERE: Petco Park, San Diego, California
LINE: N/A TOTAL: N/A
The San Diego Padres have scored 13 runs in the first two games of the series and look to sweep Pittsburgh when they host the Pirates on Thursday. San Diego has slugged four homers in the series with left fielder Matt Kemp hitting a 441-foot solo shot in Wednesday’s 8-2 victory.
Kemp was one of four Padres with two hits and the club enjoyed timely hitting by going 7-for-11 with runners in scoring positions. San Diego has won three of its last four games and is showing life after suffering through a 3-8 start. Pittsburgh has lost six of eight games and is waiting on All-Star center fielder Andrew McCutchen to get his bat in gear. McCutchen, who has two home runs and four RBIs this season, struck out twice in three hitless at-bats Wednesday and hasn’t had a multiple-hit outing since April 6.
TV: 9:10 p.m. ET, ROOT (Pittsburgh), FSN San Diego
PITCHING MATCHUP: Pirates RH Gerrit Cole (0-2, 4.22 ERA) vs. Padres RH James Shields (0-2, 4.05)
Cole dropped his first two starts of the season as he lost to the Cincinnati Reds and Detroit Tigers. He has fared well against San Diego with 23 strikeouts in 17 2/3 innings over three starts and has gone 2-1 with a 2.04 ERA. Cole will attempt to do a better job of keeping center fielder Jon Jay off base as the former member of the St. Louis Cardinals went 3-for-11 with three walks when he was in the same division, the National League Central.
Shields has allowed six hits in each of his three starts but is winless despite pitching at least six innings each time. He has served up four homers over his last two starts and the 33 he allowed last season were the second most of his career. Shields has a 1.38 ERA in two career starts against the Pirates and has experienced success against first baseman John Jaso (0-for-7).
1. Padres first baseman Wil Myers is 9-for-24 with a homer and two doubles during a five-game hitting streak.
2. Pittsburgh SS Jordy Mercer had three hits Wednesday and is 5-for-8 in the series.
3. San Diego placed 2B Cory Spangenberg (quadriceps) on the 15-day disabled list and recalled INF Jemile Weeks from Triple-A El Paso.
PREDICTION: Pirates 5, Padres 3April 21, 2016 at 9:14 am #41289
National League games
Nationals @ Marlins
Scherzer is 2-0, 3.15 in three starts this month (over 3-0).
Koehler is 0-2, 8.00 in two starts this year (under 1-1).
Washington won nine of its last 11 games (under 3-0-1 in last four). Miami lost six of its last seven games; they’re 1-7 at home (over 5-2-1).
Dodgers @ Braves
Kershaw is 2-0, 2.05 in his three starts this month (over 2-1).
Wisler is 0-1, 4.97 in two starts this month (over 1-1).
Dodgers won five of their last seven games; under is 6-3-2 in their last 11. Atlanta won four of last five games after an 0-9 start; over is 9-2-1 in their last 12 games.
Cubs @ Reds
Arrieta is 3-0, 1.23 in three starts this month (over 3-0).
Finnegan is 1-0, 4.08 in three starts this month (over 2-1).
Cubs won eight of their last 11 games; four of their last six games stayed under total. Cincinnati lost six of last nine games but is 7-2 at home; six of their last nine games went over the total. .
Pirates @ Padres
Cole is 0-2, 4.22 in two starts this month (over 1-1).
Shields is 0-2, 4.05 in three starts this month (under 3-0).
Pirates lost five of last six road games; eight of their last nine games went over the total. San Diego won three of its last four games (over 4-0).
Diamondbacks @ Giants
Miller is 0-1, 8.53 in three starts this month (over 3-0).
Cueto is 3-0, 3.38 in three starts for the Giants (over 1-1-1).
Arizona won five of its last six games; under is 6-3 in their road games. Giants lost seven of their last eight games (under 3-1 last four).
American League games
Mariners @ Indians
Karns is 1-1, 4.50 in two starts this month (under 2-0).
Anderson is 0-2, 5.91 in two starts this month (over 2-0).
Seattle won four of last six games; under is 8-2-1 in its last 11. Cleveland lost three of its last five games; its last three games stayed under.
A’s @ Bronx
Hill is 1-2, 5.54 in three starts this month (under 2-0-1).
Severino is 0-2, 5.91 in two starts this month (under 2-0)
Oakland won its last four games; they’re 5-0 on road- under is 11-2 in their last 13 games. Bronx lost six of last seven games; under is 5-0-1 in their last six
Blue Jays @ Orioles
Estrada is 1-0, 2.77 in two starts this month (under 2-0).
Tillman is 1-1, 4.85 in three starts this month (under 2-1).
Toronto won three of its last four games; its last eight road games stayed under. Orioles are 6-1 at home; over is 5-2-1 in their last eight games.
Rays @ Red Sox
Odorizzi is 0-1, 2.89 in three starts this month (under 3-0).
Ex-Ray Price is 2-0, 4.50 in three starts for Boston (over 2-1) .
Tampa Bay won three of its last four games; under is 9-2-1 in their last 12 games. Boston is 4-6 in its last ten games- they’re 4-5 at home, with six of last seven games staying under the total.
Tigers @ Royals
Pelfrey is 0-2, 6.52 in two starts this month (over 1-1).
Volquez is 2-0, 2.04 in three starts this month (under 3-0).
Detroit is 6-3 on the road; under is 8-3-2 in their games. Kansas City won eight of its last 12 games; under in 6-1 in Royal home tilts.
Astros @ Rangers
Keuchel is 2-1, 2.18 in three starts this month (under 2-1)
Griffin is 1-0, 4.09 in his first two Texas starts (over 1-1).
Houston lost ten of its last 14 games; over is 6-2 in its road games. Texas won eight of its last 11 games; six of its last seven home games went over.
Angels @ White Sox
Weaver is 1-0, 4.35 in two starts this month (over 1-1).
Danks is 0-2, 9.53 in two starts (over 1-1).
Chicago lost three of its last five games (under 10-2-1 in last 13). Angels lost five of last six games; under is 10-4 in their last fourteen games.
Twins @ Brewers
Nolasco is 0-0, 3.21 in two starts this month (over 1-1)
Jungmann is 0-2, 9.69 in three starts this month (under 2-1).
Milwaukee won four of last five home games; nine of its last 12 games went over. Twins won four of their last six games after an 0-9 start.
Wsh-Mia– Lentz is a rookie umpire; I know nothing about him.
LA-Atl– Last four Hernandez games stayed under the total.
Pitt-SD– Three of last four Wolcott games stayed under.
Az-SF– Under is 6-3-1 in last ten Hoberg games.
LA-Chi– Underdogs are 7-6 in last thirteen Nauert games
Sea-Clev– Seven of last nine Barksdale games stayed under.
A’s-NY– Over is 6-3-1 in last ten Nelson games
Tor-Balt– Home side won five of last six Bellino games
TB-Bos– Five of last six Hoye games stayed under.
Det-KC– Under is 4-1-2 in last seven Vanover games.
Hst-Tex– Five of last six BWelke games went over the total.
Mil-Min– Visiting team won nine of last eleven Baker games.April 21, 2016 at 9:14 am #41290
StatFox Super Situations™ – FoxSheets
MLB | CHICAGO CUBS at CINCINNATI
Play Against – Road favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (CHICAGO CUBS) a top-level team (>=62%) playing a team with a winning record, in April games
68-44 since 1997. ( 60.7% | 36.2 units )
1-2 this year. ( 33.3% | -1.0 units )
StatFox Situational Power Trends™ – FoxSheets
MLB | ARIZONA at SAN FRANCISCO
ARIZONA is 40-25 (+21.9 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was: ARIZONA (4.7) , OPPONENT (4.0)April 21, 2016 at 9:31 am #41299
Thursday’s Diamond Notes
By Tony Mejia
Hottest team: Athletics (won four straight)
Looking to pull off a sweep in the Bronx, Oakland will look to win its fifth straight and remain perfect on the road in the young season. They’ll play at Toronto and Detroit next, so that unbeaten run will likely end sooner than later, but the A’s will send lefty Rich Hill (1-2, 4.13) to the mound in the hopes of ensuring that first loss doesn’t come today.
A’s pitching has surrendered just a pair of runs in each of the last three games and has yet to give up more than two in any game they’ve played outside Oakland, hence the road warrior status. Hill surrendered a single run over six innings in his lone road start in Seattle, striking out 10. The bullpen has allowed just one run in eight innings they’ve worked thus far against the Yanks, who they’ve now beaten in 20 of the last 28. Third baseman Danny Valencia left Wednesday’s win with a hamstring strain, so manager Bob Melvin will likely have Chris Coghlan or Mark Canha in his place at the hot corner here. The ‘under’ has prevailed in 10 of 12 A’s games, including all five of their road wins.
Coldest team: Giants (lost three straight)
The Giants suffered their seventh loss in eight games when Zack Greinke continued his mastery in AT&T Park, winning a pitcher’s duel against Madison Bumgarner 2-1. The Diamondbacks now go in search of a four-game sweep with Shelby Miller (0-1, 8.53) taking the mound against Johnny Cueto (3-0, 3.38), the only Giants pitcher who has picked up a victory since April 12. Cueto is a perfect 3-0 with San Francisco and has given up a single run in two of his three starts, though both of those efforts came on the road. He struggled in his first start in front of the paying customer, surrendering six runs on 10 Dodgers hits in a game where the offense bailed him out. Maybe his presence will help wake up his team’s bats, since they’ve only managed to score more than a single run once in the last four games.
San Francisco hitters went 1-for-11 with runners in scoring position against Greinke and the D’backs bullpen and are 3-for-30 during his losing streak. The Diamondbacks have won in San Francisco in 11 of their last 13 contests and have won seven of the last eight overall. Miller has yet to win in an Arizona uniform and left his last start early with a lacerated index finger. Mechanics issues led to him banging his hand on the ground after releasing pitches as he worked just 1.2 innings in San Diego, facing 10 batters.
Hottest pitcher: Jake Arrieta (3-0, 1.23 ERA)
Chicago’s ace has picked up right where he left last season, running his streak to 14 consecutive decisions won. He hasn’t allowed a run in two of his three starts this season and hasn’t surrendered one in Wrigley Field since July 25 of last season, a streak of six consecutive scoreless outings. No one in baseball history had ever done that before. Arrieta’s first loss last season came at home against Cincinnati, but he’s a heavy favorite (-200) here.
Coldest pitcher: Taylor Jungmann (0-2, 9.00 ERA)
The Brewers knew this season would have its rough patches, but were counting on seeing their young players make significant strides to ease the ride. Thus far, the rocky road has been as promised — they’re 7-8 — but some unpolished gems are flaming out. Keon Broxton has already been sent down, while Jungmann, the top pitching prospect, has followed up a promising 9-8 rookie season by losing his first two decisions of 2016, rocking a pretty grimy ERA. This will be his first time ever seeing the Twins. He’s got a tidy 1.80 home ERA after working five strong innings at Miller Park this season and was excellent there last year, going 5-2 with a 2.21 ERA.
Biggest ‘UNDER’ run: Blue Jays (7-0 last seven)
Toronto averaged 5.5 runs per game last season, but has plated just 4.0 runs per game in 2016 after Wednesday’s 4-3 extra-inning loss at Baltimore. They went 2-for-12 with runners in scoring position. The ‘under’ has prevailed in nine of the Jays’ last 10 games. They’ve also played 13 of 16 games that have been decided by two runs or less this season.
Biggest ‘OVER’ run: Braves (5-0-1 last six)
Atlanta got clipped in extra innings by the Dodgers, snapping a four-game winning streak. The 5-3 result reached the projected total of eight runs, pushing and keeping the team’s streak of ‘overs’ intact. The Braves have scored 29 runs (5.8 per game) over their last five games, but haven’t hit a home run since Drew Stubbs left the yard on April 10. Atlanta ranks last in MLB with three HRs, but is 4-1 since moving Nick Markakis into the leadoff spot, taking full advantage of his run of reaching safely in an MLB-best 26 consecutive games. They’ll run into Clayton Kershaw (2-0, 1.64) on Thursday, so they’re going to be hard-pressed to continue this high-scoring run. The total is set at 6.5.
Matchup to watch: Tigers at Royals
Sure, it’s early — we’re barely 10 percent into baseball’s regular season — but the AL Central Division has seen the White Sox get off to an unexpected strong start, which means the winner of this one gets to keep pace while the loser leaves Kansas City stuck in third. The teams have split the first two meetings in riveting contests and will get another national showcase on FS-1 for this rubber game. Tigers starter Mike Pelfrey (0-2, 2.79) has yet to win for his new team and has walked more batters (7) than he’s struck out (6), but he gave up a single run in six innings at Houston last time out, suffering a hard-luck 1-0 loss. Edinson Volquez (2-0, 2.04) is off to an excellent start for the Royals, but he’ll have to be wary of a slumping Miguel Cabrera, who is 5-for-8 against him in his career, reaching based eight times in 11 plate appearances.
Betcha didn’t know:
Although Colorado’s Trevor Story has stolen the show among rookies, Astros 1B Tyler White has been no slouch. The early favorite for AL Rookie of the Year already has one Player of the Week honor under his belt and smacked his fifth homer of the season to supply his team’s lone run in Wednesday’s 2-1 loss. He had been hitting .167 with 11 strikeouts over the last week prior to going 1-for-4, but hasn’t had a hit that hasn’t left the yard in each of the past six games and has struck out at least once in eight consecutive contests. He’ll look to help the Astros snap a two-game losing streak and avoid a sweep in Arlington behind Dallas Keuchel (2-1, 2.18). At this point, Houston has been MLB’s biggest disappointment.
Biggest public favorite:
Dodgers (-250) at Braves
Biggest public underdog:
Tigers (+150) at Royals
Biggest line move:
Mariners (+110 to -107) at IndiansApril 21, 2016 at 9:32 am #41300
Cleveland Indians – Seattle Mariners
Total: Under 9
Odd: 1,99April 21, 2016 at 9:33 am #41301
2* Oakland Athletics +133
2* Cincinnati Reds +186
2* Under 6.5 -105 – Los Angeles Dodgers / Atlanta Braves
1* Over 9 -120 – Los Angeles Angels / Chicago White SoxApril 21, 2016 at 9:34 am #41303
Houston Astros -150 over Texas Rangers
(System Record: 13-0, lost last 2 games)
Overall Record: 13-5
Los Angeles Angels +101 over Chicago White Sox
Boston Red Sox -154 over Tampa Bay Rays
Pittsburgh Pirates -140 over San Diego PadresApril 21, 2016 at 11:28 am #41309
100* Over 7 – Marlins / Nationals
100* Yankees -125
100* White Sox -110April 21, 2016 at 11:30 am #41311
4* seattle – OVER 8.5April 21, 2016 at 11:34 am #41313April 21, 2016 at 11:44 am #41314
MLB Baseball Betting Trends – Thurs – April, 21
Washington at Miami, 1:10 PM ET
Washington: 95-38 SU as a favorite of -150 or more
Miami: 1-7 SU at home when the total is 7 to 8.5
LA Dodgers at Atlanta, 12:10 PM ET
Los Angeles: 9-14 SU in road games after a win by 2 runs or less
Atlanta: 17-10 SU after 4 straight games with no home runs
Arizona at San Francisco, 3:45 PM ET
Arizona: 8-1 SU in road games after a game with a combined score of 3 runs or less
San Francisco: 1-8 SU in home games off 3 straight losses against division rivals
Chicago at Cincinnati, 7:10 PM ET
Chicago: 24-12 SU on the road when the total is 7 or less
Cincinnati: 2-15 SU as a home underdog of +125 or more
Pittsburgh at San Diego, 9:10 PM ET
Pittsburgh: 91-47 SU as a favorite of -125 to -175
San Diego: 44-63 SU when the total is 7 or less
Seattle at Cleveland, 12:10 PM ET
Seattle: 17-7 SU in road games after scoring 2 runs or less
Cleveland: 5-13 SU after 3 straight games with no home runs
LA Angels at Chicago White Sox, 2:10 PM ET
Los Angeles: 40-17 SU when the total is 9 to 9.5
Chicago: 30-43 SU in home games after a win
Tampa Bay at Boston, 1:35 PM ET
Tampa Bay: 39-32 SU as a road underdog of +100 to +150
Boston: 34-51 SU in home games against division opponents
Oakland at NY Yankees, 7:05 PM ET
Oakland: 28-43 SU after 2 straight games without giving up a stolen base
New York: 26-11 SU when playing on Thursday
Toronto at Baltimore, 7:05 PM ET
Toronto: 20-30 SU after having won 3 of their last 4
Baltimore: 43-23 SU in home games against right-handed starters
Detroit at Kansas City, 7:15 PM ET
Detroit: 76-92 SU when the total is 8.5 to 10
Kansas City: 46-28 SU after a loss
Houston at Texas, 8:05 PM ET
Houston: 9-19 SU on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10
Texas: 27-19 SU after 4 or more consecutive home games
Minnesota at Milwaukee, 1:40 PM ET
Minnesota: 41-34 SU after a loss by 4 runs or more
Milwaukee: 16-23 SU at home with a money line of -100 to -150April 21, 2016 at 11:56 am #41320
2* LA Dodgers RL-1.5
1* Boston Redsox
1* NY Yankees
1* OVER – ny yankees
1* UNDER – pittsburghApril 21, 2016 at 11:57 am #41321
4-Unit Play. #911. Take Seattle -110
(Thursday @ 12:10pm est)April 21, 2016 at 12:02 pm #41322
905 Arizona Diamondbacks +160
907 Chicago Cubs -200
914 Chicago White Sox -120
917 Oakland Athletics +135
924 Texas Rangers +145
MLB 24-17 +$550April 21, 2016 at 12:03 pm #41323
‘Pick of the Day’
909 Pittsburgh Pirates -140
MLB 5-3 +$225
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