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MLB Friday Service Plays 9/4/15

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    Five To Follow MLB Betting: Friday September 4, 2015 Opening Line Report
    by Alan Matthews

    I enjoy baseball’s infatuation with statistics. And thus I give you another one. On Wednesday night, future Hall of Famer Albert Pujols of the Los Angeles Angels hit his 35th homer of the season and No. 555 of his career. This latter number tied Manny Ramirez for 14th on the all-time list. The former number surprised me: He is just the fourth player with at least 35 dingers in his first 15 seasons. I definitely thought that number would be higher. But he joined Willie Mays (10), Mike Schmidt (11) and Alex Rodriguez (12) on that short list. Pujols is now on pace for 42, a number he hasn’t reached since 2010. I do think this will be the last season that Pujols gets to 35 considering he will be 36 years old in January.

    Diamondbacks at Cubs (-245, TBA)

    Slumping Chicago should catch a break in Friday’s only matinee as it’s not likely that Arizona’s Paul Goldschmidt, who is gunning for the NL Triple Crown, will make it back to the team in time for the game. He was excused from the club to be with his wife in Phoenix for the birth of the couple’s first child. It’s doubtful he plays Friday. Cubs lefty Jon Lester will take that considering Goldschmidt is hitting .322 with 27 homers and 97 RBIs. Lester (8-10, 3.59) has been shelled in two of his past three starts but had one very good one in between. He finished August 2-2 with a 5.04 ERA in five starts. He threw seven shutout innings vs. Arizona earlier this season. Aaron Hill has by far faced him the most of any Diamondbacks player, going 4-for-35 with nine strikeouts. It’s rookie Zack Godley (4-0, 1.90) for Arizona. This will be just his fourth career start and first look at the Cubs.

    Key trends: Arizona is 4-1 in its past five on Friday. The Cubs are 4-1 in Lester’s past five at home. The “over/under” is 7-2-1 in Arizona’s past 10 road games vs. lefties. The under is 4-0 in Lester’s past four series openers. The Snakes are 7-1 in the past eight meetings.

    Early lean: Cubs on runline (Goldschmidt is that good).

    Mariners at A’s (-108, 7.5)

    Monitor the status of big-league home run leader Nelson Cruz here. He strained his quad in Wednesday’s game and is considered day-to-day. Cruz has been well worth his big free-agent money, batting .310 with 39 homers and 82 RBIs. I never expected this many homers playing half his games in spacious Safeco. So Oakland pitcher Aaron Brooks (1-1, 5.47) might catch a break here. He came over in the Ben Zobrist trade. Brooks had a quality start last time out, allowing two runs over six innings in Arizona. He has never faced Seattle. The Mariners go with rookie lefty Edgar Olmos (1-0, 2.13) — you are going to see a lot of pitchers you never heard of down the stretch on non-contenders. He has pitched 5.0 innings in two relief appearances vs. Oakland this season and is 1-0 without allowing a run.

    Key trends: The Mariners have lost seven straight series openers. The A’s are 1-5 in their past six following an off day. The over is 9-2 in Seattle’s past 11 road games vs. teams with a losing record. Seattle is 9-3 in the past 12 meetings.

    Early lean: A’s (especially if Cruz out) and under.

    Braves at Nationals (-200, 8)

    Washington can ill afford to be without MVP candidate Bryce Harper for any period of time, but he had to leave Wednesday’s game in St. Louis in the fourth inning with glute tightness. So obviously keep an eye on his status. Harper is batting .331 with 31 home runs and 78 RBIs. Washington starts Tanner Roark (4-4, 4.54) here. He takes the spot of Stephen Strasburg, who is being skipped because of upper-back tightness suffered during his last start. Roark’s start was abbreviated to two innings at Double-A Harrisburg on Monday so he would be potentially available for this game. Atlanta’s Julio Teheran (9-7, 4.62) was blown up last time out, allowing eight runs and nine hits over 4.1 innings against the Yankees. He is 0-0 with a 7.59 ERA in two starts this season against Washington. Harper is 9-for-21 off him with two homers. Ryan Zimmerman is 5-for-23 with two homers and seven RBIs.

    Key trends: Atlanta is 5-0 in Teheran’s past five vs. the NL East. The Braves are 1-6 in Teheran’s past seven road starts vs. teams with a winning record. Washington is 4-1 in Roark’s past five at home. The over is 10-1-1 in Teheran’s past 12 on the road. The over is 4-1 Roark’s past five overall.

    Early lean: Nats and over. Although if Harper sits I’d probably take Braves on runline.

    Mets at Marlins (+170, 7)

    Another guy to monitor is New York infielder Daniel Murphy. He left Wednesday night’s game against the Phillies after the bottom of the third inning with what the team call “mild discomfort,” in his left quad. Murphy was on the disabled list with a strained left quad from June 5-30, missing 22 games this season. New York goes with Jacob deGrom (12-7, 2.32) here. He rebounded from his worst start of the season by allowing just two runs over six innings last time out against Boston, although he did take the loss. He shut out the Marlins over 7.2 innings in his lone start against them this season. One guy he apparently won’t have to worry about is Giancarlo Stanton. He and the team were targeting Friday as his return from a long stint on the disabled list, but that now is considered doubtful. No reason to push it with the Marlins one of baseball’s worst teams. Miami starts Tom Koehler (8-13, 4.12). He is 0-2 with a 14.73 ERA in three starts vs. the Mets this season. Ruben Tejada is 7-for-20 with four doubles and seven RBIs off him. Yoenis Cespedes is 2-for-3 with two doubles and two RBIs.

    Key trends: The Mets are 6-0 in deGrom’s past six on the road. The Marlins are 0-7 in Koehler’s past seven overall. The over is 4-0 in deGrom’s past four on the road. The under is 6-2 in Koehler’s past eight at home.

    Early lean: Mets and under.

    Twins at Astros (-178, 8.5)

    Minnesota gets another of its good young players back on Friday as outfielder Aaron Hicks will be activated off the disabled list. He hasn’t played since Aug. 19 due to a hamstring injury. Hicks is batting .268 with eight homers and 25 RBIs. Hicks hit a three-run homer in Triple-A on Wednesday. Mike Pelfrey (6-8, 3.85) starts here for Minnesota. It’s his second straight start vs. Houston as last Saturday he lasted only 3.2 innings and allowed four runs and seven hits in a loss. Pelfrey didn’t have to face George Springer then, but he’s also expected to be activated off the DL on Friday. He has been out since July 1 with a wrist injury. Springer is hitting .264 with 13 homers and 29 RBIs in 75 games. Houston’s Collin McHugh (14-7, 3.92) hasn’t allowed more than two earned in his past five outings. He didn’t face Minnesota last weekend.

    Key trends: The Twins are 1-5 in Pelfrey’s past six vs. teams with a winning record. Houston is 10-1 in McHugh’s past 11 vs. teams with a winning record. The under is 5-2-1 in Pelfrey’s past eight vs. teams with a winning record. The under is 9-2 in McHugh’s past overall.

    Early lean: Astros and under.


    2015 baseball information

    National League
    Diamondbacks @ Cubs

    Godley is 3-0, 1.50 in his three starts (over 3-0); Arizona scored 22 runs in the three games.

    Lester is 0-2, 6.75 in his last three starts (under 6-3-1 in last ten).

    Arizona won seven of last eight games with the Cubs; over is 5-3-1 in last nine series games. D’backs lost seven of last ten games; three of their last four went under the total. Chicago lost six of last eight (under 4-2 in last six).

    Braves @ Nationals
    Teheran is 1-1, 6.11 in his last three starts; over is 4-2-1 in his last seven.

    Roark is making first start since June 28; he is 1-1, 5.72 in his last three starts, with his last five starts going over.

    Braves were outscored 82-20 in losing their last nine games (over 8-3-1 last 12); they’re 2-9 in last 11 games with Washington– five of last seven in series stayed under. Nationals are 8-4 in last 12 games (over 4-1 last five).

    Mets @ Marlins
    deGrom is 4-1, 2.51 in his last nine starts; his last four road starts went over.

    Koehler is 0-7, 7.03 in his last seven starts (under 3-1 last four).

    Mets won three of last four games with Miami; over is 5-2 in last seven series games. NY won seven of last ten games (over 8-2); they’ve got a 6-game lead in NL East with 29 games left. Marlins won last three gams; three of their last four home games stayed under.

    Brewers @ Reds
    Garza is 0-2, 9.30 in his last four starts (over 3-1-1 in his last five).

    Sampson is 0-1, 12.27 in his last three starts (over 3-1 in last four).

    Milwaukee won six of last seven games with Cincinnati; three of last four in series stayed under. Brewers won four of last five games (over 7-2-1 in last ten). Reds lost six of their last nine games- they lost last six times they scored less than seven runs.

    Pirates @ Cardinals
    Happ is 3-0, 0.51 in his last three starts; his last five stayed under.

    Martinez is 1-2, 5.71 in his last three starts (over 2-0-1 in last three).

    Pittsburgh won six of last nine games with St Louis (over 4-1-1 last six); Bucs lost last four games (over 3-0 in last three) overall. Cardinals won eight of last ten games (over 4-1-1 in last six)

    Giants @ Rockies
    Heston is 0-3, 5.79 in his last four starts; four of his last five road starts went over the total.

    de la Rosa is 1-2, 2.52 in his last four starts (under 3-1).

    Giants are 5-4 in last eight games with Colorado; seven of last eight series games went over total. Rockies are 6-4 in last ten games; five of last seven went under. Giants are 4-11 in last 15 games overall; under is 3-2-1 in their last six road games.

    Dodgers @ Padres
    Bolsinger is making first start since July 29; he is 1-0, 2.45 in his last four, with four of his last six going over total.

    Shields is 2-1, 2.89 in his last three starts; his last six all went over.

    Dodgers won seven of last nine games; under is 8-3-1 in their last dozen. LA is 7-4 in last 11 games with San Diego (under 5-3 in last eight). Padres lost five of last eight games (over 4-0-1 in last five).

    American League
    Indians @ Tigers

    Kluber is 0-1, 4.58 in his last three starts (over 5-2 in last seven).

    Lobstein is making first start since May 23; he is 0-3, 7.36 in his last three starts- his last five starts stayed under.

    Indians lost six of last eight games with Detroit; over is 8-2 in last ten series games. Cleveland won six of last eight games; last three stayed under. Tigers lost nine of last 11 games, allowing 56 runs in last five (over 5-0).

    Rays @ Bronx
    Odorizzi is 0-1, 4.33 in his last six starts (over 4-1 in last five).

    Severino is 2-2, 2.48 in his five starts (under 3-2).

    Tampa Bay won four of last six games with Bronx; under is 7-2-1 in last 10 in series. Rays won three of last four games (over 8-2 in last ten). NY won five of last six; over is 5-3 in their last eight games.

    Orioles @ Blue Jays
    Jimenez is 0-2, 7.59 in his last four starts (over 3-1).

    Hutchison is 3-0, 1.74 in his last three starts; six of his last nine went over.

    Orioles lost eight of last ten games; last three went over. Blue Jays won eight of last ten games (under is 5-2 in last seven). Baltimore won three of last four games with Toronto.

    White Sox @ Royals
    Danks is 0-4, 5.17 in his last five starts (over 3-1 in last four on road).

    Medlen is 2-0, 4.76 in his two starts (over 2-0); Royals scored 14 runs in those two games.

    White Sox lost their last five games with Kansas City; under is 6-3-1 in last 10 series games. Chicago lost four of last six games; four of its last five got over the total. Royals won five of last seven games (over 4-1 last five).

    Twins @ Astros
    Pelfrey is 0-1, 5.27 in his last three starts.

    McHugh is 2-2, 2.05 in his last five starts (under 4-1).

    Minnesota won three of last four games with Houston (under 3-1); Twins are 7-3 in last ten games (over 6-3 in last nine). Astros lost three of their last four games; all four went over the total.

    Rangers @ Angels
    Perez is 1-1, 4.63 in his last four starts; four of his last five stayed under.

    Richards is 2-3, 5.84 in his last seven starts (over 6-1).

    Rangers lost seven of last ten games with Angels; six of last seven in series went over total. Texas won six of last seven games (over 2-0-1 in last three). Halos lost four of last six games (over 4-0-1 in last five).

    Mariners @ A’s
    Olmos allowed three runs in five IP (95 PT) in his first MLB start.

    Brooks is 1-0, 1.26 in his two home starts (over 3-2 overall in his starts).

    Seattle won seven of last ten games with Oakland; last three series games got over total. Mariners won six of last nine games (over 8-2 in last ten). A’s lost five of last eight games; over is 8-1-1 in their last ten.

    Phillies @ Red Sox

    Morgan is 2-0, 4.86 in his last three starts; under is 4-2-1 in his last seven.

    Kelly is 5-0, 1.97 in his last five starts (over 5-1-1 in his last seven).

    Philly lost six of last nine games with Boston; three of last four series games went over. Phils lost seven of last ten games (over 7-2-1). Red Sox lost three of last four games (over 6-4 in last ten)

    Win-loss records this year for team with this starting pitcher:
    Az-Chi– Godley 3-0; Lester 14-12
    Atl-Wsh– Teheran 15-12; Roark 3-3
    NY-Mia– deGrom 17-8 (8-1 last 9); Koehler 10-15 (0-7 last 7)
    Mil-Cin– Garza 8-16 (1-6 last 7); Sampson 3-2
    Pitt-StL– Happ 4-1; Martinez 19-5
    SF-Col– Heston 14-11 (0-4 last 4); de la Rosa 12-11
    LA-SD– Bolsinger 9-7; Shields 13-15

    Cle-Det– Kluber 10-18; Lobstein 3-5
    TB-NY– Odorizzi 10-12; Severino 2-3
    Balt-Tor– Jimenez 13-13; Hutchison 18-7 (7-0 last 7)
    Chi-KC– Danks 11-14; Medlen 2-0
    Min-Hst– Pelfrey 13-12; McHugh 16-10
    Tex-LAA– Perez 5-3; Richards 14-11
    Sea-A’s– Olmos 0-1; Brooks 2-2

    Phil-Bos– Morgan 7-5; Kelly 11-11 (6-0 last 6)

    Times this starting pitcher allowed a run in first inning:
    Az-Chi– Godley 0-3; Lester 7-27
    Atl-Wsh– Teheran 9-27; Roark 2-6
    NY-Mia– deGrom 7-25; Koehler 5-25
    Mil-Cin– Garza 8-24; Sampson 3-5
    Pitt-StL– Happ 1-5; Martinez 5-24
    SF-Col– Heston 4-25; de la Rosa 8-23
    LA-SD– Bolsinger 4-16; Shields 7-28

    Cle-Det– Kluber 11-28; Lobstein 5-8
    TB-NY– Odorizzi 5-22; Severino 2-5
    Balt-Tor– Jimenez 7-26; Hutchison 11-25
    Chi-KC– Danks 8-25; Medlen 1-2
    Min-Hst– Pelfrey 3-25; McHugh 8-26
    Tex-LAA– Perez 1-8; Richards 5-25
    Sea-A’s– Olmos 1-1; Brooks 2-4

    Phil-Bos– Morgan 1-12; Kelly 9-22


    StatFox Super Situations™ – FoxSheets

    Play On – All teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (LA DODGERS)
    with an on base percentage of .285 or worse over their last 5 games, starting a over rested pitcher who is working on 7 or more days rest
    111-54 over the last 5 seasons. ( 67.3% | 45.3 units )
    21-14 this year. ( 60.0% | 3.8 units )

    StatFox Situational Power Trends™ – FoxSheets

    SAN DIEGO is 27-9 (+18.3 Units) against the money line in Home games
    vs. good fielding teams – averaging <=0.6 errors/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was: SAN DIEGO (4.5) , OPPONENT (3.1)


    Diamondbacks hold edge versus Cubs in recent meetings
    Andrew Avery

    The Arizona Diamondbacks open a three-game set against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field Friday afternoon and if recent head to heads between the National League clubs are anything to go by, the Cubs could have their hands full.

    The Dbacks have posted a record of 7-1 in the last eight meetings with the Cubs, including taking two of three from a series at Chase Field earlier this season.

    Early lines have the Cubs -205 with Jon Lester on the bump. The Dbacks, who are expected to counter with Zack Godley, are +188.


    Hutchison rolling along in home starts
    Andrew Avery

    Toronto Blue Jays’ righty Drew Hutchison has some pretty insane home/away splits and he’ll get another chance to build on his impressive home form with the Baltimore Orioles in town to open a three-game set Friday evening.

    Hutchison is 11-1 with a 2.46 ERA in 14 starts at Rogers Centre so far this season and the Jays have won his last 10 starts north of the border.

    In away starts, the 25-year-old is 2-1 with a 9.00 ERA in 11 appearances.

    Books have opened the Jays in the -180



    1* (973) Twins +$171

    1* (975) Rangers +$137



    Baseball Crusher
    Atlanta Braves + Washington Nationals – OVER 8

    (System Record: 73-3, won last 5 games)
    Overall Record: 73-66-3

    Milwaukee Brewers + Cincinnati Reds – OVER 9
    Pittsburgh Pirates + St. Louis Cardinals – UNDER 7.5
    Tampa Bay Rays + New York Yankees – UNDER 8


    Chicago Syndicate

    3* Cardinals

    2* Rays

    1* White Sox/Royals – Under 8.5


    paul leiner

    100* Over 7 – Mets/Marlins


    river city sharps

    Cardinals – TT Over 4 (-105) Pirates in serious slide and while Happ has been good over his last three starts, he’s been dreadful against these Cardinals…to the tune of 1-8, 6.79 ERA in 10 starts vs. STL. Bad news made worse for Bucs backers is that when Happ faces the Cards in St. Louis, he’s 0-3, 12.34 ERA. Pirates have lost 18 of their last 22 games at Busch

    Mariners – TT Over 3.5 (-125) Seattle’s offense has really picked up over the past 10 games, where the Mariners are hitting almost .300 and scoring 5.5 RPG. Tonight they face off with Aaron Brooks, who has been inconsistent and looks to bounce off several good performances tonight



    Play Houston -180 over Minnesota—Top Play

    Mike Pelfrey has lost 32 of the last 46 games when playing as an
    underdog of +150 or higher and he has lost 61 of the last 97 road games.
    Mike Pelfrey has lost 9 of the last 12 games vs. AL West Division
    Opponents and he has lost 17 of the last 28 games when pitching with
    five or six days of rest.

    Play Kansas City -180 over Chicago White Sox—Top Play

    John Danks has lost 28 of the last 40 road games and he has lost 20 of
    the last 32 games when playing in the month of September. John Danks
    has lost 42 of the last 68 games when pitching as an underdog of +100 or
    higher and he has lost 25 of the last 33 games when pitching on a

    ================================================== ======


    Play St. Louis -150 over Pittsburgh (MLB Bonus Play)

    Play New York Mets -180 over Miami (MLB Bonus Play)



    Clevelans Indians – c. Kluber scratched from todays start, Tomlin will go instead.


    wiseguy insider

    100* wiseguy toronto blue jays -170


    We Pick Sports

    Los Angeles Angels (-150) 4* 10:05 ET

    Oakland (-130) 3* 10:05 ET


    vegas sports informer

    7* Over 8 – Atlanta vs Washington

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