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dave essler
mlb tHURSDAY
Atlanta-Washington: I do know the Braves are not playing well and haven’t since about the middle of May. I also know that Wisler has had his struggles. However, there is no chance of laying -250 with Zimmerman – let alone in Washington’s first game back from a tough series in St. Louis. If there were ever a time to take a flyer, this might be it.
Pirates-Brewers: Yes, Liriano is a very good pitcher, but Youngmann may give Milwaukee their best chance. I do like the under here if for no other reason than the Pirates bullpen has been in lock down mode. I can’t ignore the fact that Jumgmann has allowed three home runs in 90+ innings, and one since June 30th. Couple that with his 1.17 WHIP which is in the elite category – and I could make the case for the Brewers RL at the very least.
Giants-Rockies: Hard to fathom Vogelsong being -135 on the road, but that’s what it is. Since he (Vogelsong) came out of the bullpen to take a turn in the rotation he hasn’t lasted more than six innings, and even six only once. That’s tough to get behind even with the huge bullpen advantage the Giants have. It’s also impossible for me to back Rusin, and not so much because of his inconsistency but the fact that he threw 113 pitches last game. There’s a reason why this total is 11.5.
Dodgers-Padres: Everyone seemed to want to get behind Rea in his last outing against the Phillies, but he’s really done nothing to impress after his first start against the Reds. Tough to fathom the Dodgers, even with Latos, only being -120 which is either a complete gift or a big public disaster (not unlike the Red Sox). Latos hasn’t lasted through the fifth inning in three straight starts, and LA comes in after a big series against the Giants – so I suppose we could make a case for – the over?
White Sox-Twins: A day game, so let’s be diligent and see what lineups come out. Gibson has been very good to us, but I don’t know about -145 to a team that’s seen him and might have some motivation for getting whacked by him back in May. I suppose that’s something to grab on to if your Chicago. Gibson has thrown four straight 101+ pitch games – something he’s not accustomed to. Chicago typically does fare better against RHP’s as well. And yes, Samardzija has been crucified of late – so backing the Sox is tough as well. One could perhaps conclude that the over is the play, but Samrdzija AND Gibson are both somewhere between their recent performances. I do think it (the total) goes to 8.5 at some point, and perhaps the under. Opening at 8 is seemingly signaling a pitcher’s duel, and let’s face it, these teams are not the Yankees.
Tigers-Royals: Again, for as good as the Royals can be and as bad as the Tigers have been, there’s no reason to make Volquez -200 against a left handed pitcher, something we know the Royals CAN struggle with at times. I’d think differently if Volquez has been pitching great, but looking beyond the wins and losses, he’s allowed 13/14 flyball outs in his last two games. We of course know Detroit CAN hit the ball. They (the Tigers) have all seen him at least once. This could be a F5 under – can’t take the game under with the possibility of Detroits’ bullpen being overly involved. Yes, Boyd’s given it up all over the place, but he’s already pitched against the Royals twice.
2015 baseball information
National League
Braves @ Nationals
Wisler is 0-3, 7.24 in his last three starts; five of his last six went over.Zimmerman is 3-0, 5.30 in his last three starts; Nationals scored 29 runs in the three games– four of his last six went over.
Braves were outscored 67-19 in losing their last eight games (over 7-3-1 last 11); they’re 2-8 in last ten games with Washington– five of last six in series stayed under. Nationals are 7-4 in lst 11 games (over 3-1 last four).
Pirates @ Brewers
Pirates won last 11 Liriano starts, scoring 58 runs in his last eight (over 7-0-1 in those eight games).Jungmann is 2-1, 2.76 in his last three starts (under 5-2-1 in his last eight).
Pittsburgh lost last three games (under 5-4 in last nine). Pirates lost seven of last eight games with Milwaukee (over 3-1 in last four). Brewers won four of last five games; over is 9-2-1 in their last twelve.
Giants @ Rockies
Vogelsong is 0-2, 7.88 in his last two starts; under is 3-0-1 in his last four.Rusin is 1-4, 6.87 in his last seven starts; three of his last four stayed under.
Giants are 5-3 in last eight games with Colorado; six of last seven series tilts went over total. Rockies are 5-4 in last nine games; five of last six stayed under. Giants are 4-10 in last 14 games overall; under is 3-1-1 in their last five road games.
Dodgers @ Padres
Latos is 0-3, 6.04 in his last five starts (over 3-1 in last four).Rea is 0-2, 9.00 in his last two starts; over 3-1 in his ’15 starts.
Dodgers just swept the Giants, are sitting pretty in NL West; they won seven of last eight games, allowing 15 runs; under is 8-2-1 in their last eleven. LA is 7-3 in last ten games with San Diego (under 5-2 in last seven). Padres lost five of last seven games (over 3-0-1 in last four).
American League
White Sox @ Twins
Samardzija is 0-6, 8.82 in his last six starts (over 7-1 in last eight).Gibson is 1-0, 1.59 in his last two starts (under 3-1 in last four).
White Sox lost ten of last 12 games with Minnesota (over 3-1-2 in last six) Chicago is 3-7 in last ten games (over 8-4 in last 12). Twins won 10 of last 12 games; five of last eight went over.
Tigers @ Royals
Boyd is 0-3, 6.45 in his last four starts (under 4-1 in last five).Volquez is 1-0, 4.19 in his last three starts; six of his last nine went under.
Detroit is 4-3 in last seven games with Kansas City (under 6-4). Tigers lost five of last six games, outscored 48-13 (last four over). Royals won eight of their last eleven games.
Win-loss records this year for team with this starting pitcher:
Atl-Wsh– Wisler 6-7 (0-4 last 4); Zimmerman 16-11
Pitt-Mil– Liriano 15-10 (11-0 last 11); Jungmann 9-6
SF-Col– Vogelsong 11-10; Rusin 4-11
LA-SD– Latos 8-12/2-2; Rea 2-2Chi-Min– Samardzija 11-16 (0-6 last 6); Gibson 14-12
Det-KC– Boyd 1-6/1-4; Volquez 19-8Times this starting pitcher allowed a run in first inning:
Atl-Wsh– Wisler 7-13; Zimmerman 9-27
Pitt-Mil– Liriano 5-26; Jungmann 2-15
SF-Col– Vogelsong 6-21; Rusin 5-15
LA-SD– Latos 7-20; Rea 1-4Chi-Min– Samardzija 13-27; Gibson 6-26
Det-KC– Boyd 3-7; Volquez 6-27StatFox Super Situations™ – FoxSheets
MLB | CHI WHITE SOX at MINNESOTA
Play On – Road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (CHI WHITE SOX) terrible offensive team – scoring <=4.2 runs/game on the season (AL) against opponent poor offensive team - scoring <=4.7 runs/game on the season (AL) 257-268 over the last 5 seasons. ( 49.0% | 100.7 units ) 41-54 this year. ( 43.2% | 6.5 units ) StatFox Situational Power Trends™ – FoxSheetsMLB | CHI WHITE SOX at MINNESOTA
MINNESOTA is 25-12 (+16.1 Units) against the money line in Home games vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .320 or worse this season.
The average score was: MINNESOTA (4.9) , OPPONENT (3.4)steve merril
screen shot thursday
Braves @ Nationals — Washington’s Jordan Zimmermann has held the Braves to just 3 runs and 20 hits in his last three starts against them. Zimmermann will be opposed by Atlanta’s Matt Wisler who is 2-4 with a 6.52 ERA and 1.78 WHIP in eight road starts this season. One of those bad road starts came against the Nationals back on June 25th when he gave up 6 runs and 9 hits in four innings of work. Washington’s offense has scored 4 runs or more in five straight games, and in ten of their last eleven games overall. I lean to the Nationals -1.5 (-120) in this game.
Giants @ Rockies — Chris Rusin is 3-2 with a 5.28 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in eight home starts for Colorado this season. In his last home outing, Rusin allowed 11 runs and 12 hits in just two innings of work. The southpaw gave up 5 runs and 10 hits to the Giants in San Francisco back in June. Ryan Vogelsong won his only start against the Rockies in Colorado back in May after holding them to just two hits in six innings of work. San Francisco (-130) is my lean in this game on Thursday night.
Coach Fletcher’s Thursday Scouting Edge
Just 6 games on the schedule today!
Samardzija Happy That August’s Over!
10:10am Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins
September is bound to be a better month for Jeff Samardzija. It better be or he will be out of a job. In 6 August starts, Samardzija was blanked. He went 0-6. He gave up ee earned runs and 47 hits in just 33 2/3 innings. He also was torched for a major league high of 25 runs in the first inning. Samardzija is 3-1 lifetime versus the Twins with a 5.12 era. He’s faced them 3 times this year and allowed 8 earned runs in 22 innings. He’s walked only 2 and fanned 22. The Linemakers obviously think that Samardzija’s troubles will continue as they opened Minnesota as -145 favorites.
Pirates Win When Liriano Is on the Hill
4:20 pm Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers
Francisco Liriano is doing his best to keep the Pirate Wild Card spot safe. If the other pitchers echoed Liriano, the Cubs would be a threat for it all. Liriano is unbeaten in his last 11 starts. The Pirates have won 11 consecutive games that Liriano has started. Liriano is 9-6 with a 3.26 era. He’s 6-5 with a 4.12 era vs the Brewers. He may have a tough one today. He’s facing Taylor Jungman who is 2-0 against the Bucs this year with a 1.29 era. Liriano is a -150 favorite.
Latos Tries to Cement Dodger Starting Job
7:10 pm Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres
Mat with “one t” Latos was acquired by the Dodgers to beef up the back of their starting rotation. So far no good. Latos hasn’t made it through the 5th inning in any of his past 3 starts. He’s 4-9 with a 4.76 era on the year. In his last 3 starts Latos is a horrible 0-2 with a giant 8.10 era. After the Dodgers gave him a 16 day rest between starts. Latos came back and allowed 2 runs and 4 hits in 4 2/3 innings against the Cubs. He walked 3 and struck out 5. The plusses for Latos is that he sports 3.29 era on the road and even though he is 0-2 against the Pads his era is just 2.08. Latos is favored at -123.
CRUSHER
Baseball Crusher
Detroit Tigers + KC Royals – OVER 8
(System Record: 72-3, won last 4 games)
Overall Record: 72-66-3Here are the rest of his baseball plays for today…
Baseball
LA Dodgers + San Diego Padres – OVER 7
Milwaukee Brewers + Pittsburgh Pirates – OVER 7.5
San Francisco Giants + Colorado Rockies – OVER 11sharp moves
Steam Rot#: 907 Team: LA Dodgers/San Diego – Over 7
Steam Rot#: 905 Team: San Francisco/Colorado – Over 11
Steam Rot#: 911 Team: Detroit/Kansas City – Over 8
Steam Rot#: 903 Team: Pittsburgh/Milwaukee – Over 7½
paul Shinoba Sports
Milwaukee Brewers +140 over Pittsburgh Pirates (list Jungmann)
Minnesota Twins -135 over Chicago White Sox (list both pitchers)
Los Angeles Dodgers/San Diego Padres – over 7 runs
San Diego Padres +135 over Los Angeles Dodgers (list both pitchers)
xpertpicks
baseball
play kansas city -190 over detroit—top play
kansas city has won 52 of the last 75 games when playing as a favorite of -110 or higher and they have won 46 of the last 68 home games.
kansas city has won 71 of the last 117 games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs and they have won 37 of the last 58 games when playing in the 2nd half of the season.play minnesota -130 over chicago white sox—top play
chicago has lost 32 of the last 52 games vs. division opponents and they have lost 37 of the last 65 road games. chicago has lost 43 of the last 72 games when playing as an underdog of +100 or higher and they have
lost 36 of the last 54 games when playing in the month of september.================================================== ======
bonus mlb baseball plays
play san francisco -120 over colorado (mlb bonus play)
play pittsburgh -140 over milwaukee (mlb bonus play)
Indian cowboy
4-Unit Play. #901. Take Over 8 Runs Atlanta vs. Washington Thursday @ 7:05pm est)
We roll with the Over here between these two teams in what should be a higher scoring game than most realize. We apologize for the dud yesterday in the 7-unit selection and we look to quickly bounce-back here as we have done so many times this season as we sit at 31-10 overall. In fact, we have not lost back to back days since July 9th and July 10th and the days that include a pass we have not lost back to back days since August 7th and August 9th which just goes to show your our level of consistency in Baseball. Per this selection, note that Zimmerman had a great effort against Miami in his last start giving up just 1 earned run but before that start he had given up 17 hits in 11.2 innings, 2 walks and 5 homeruns in those two starts as well. The Braves have shown regardless of how poor they have played this season in a rebuilding year they show up to play Washington. Maybe that’s why the line took a quick hike from 7.5 to 8 upon its opening. In 15.2 innings Zimmerman has yet to yield a run to Atlanta and that undoubtedly is not lost on this team. Look for Atlanta to finally step up here and get to Zimmerman this evening and combine that with Wisler giving up 4 earned runs in 9.1 innings. Look for Washington to likely to get to Wisler as he has a tendency to have a let down after a quality start, he has gone ove the posted total 5 of 6 contests and Atlanta also to get to Zimmerman in what is a game that is likely to go over the posted total this evening.
Allen Eastman
4-Unit Play. Take #902 Washington (-1.5, -120) over Atlanta (7 p.m., Thursday, Sept. 3)
The Nationals got a big win last night against the Cardinals. I think that will carry over into today. Washington could have won all three games in that series in St. Louis. They also need every win they can get because they are fighting for a playoff spot. Atlanta has been the worst road team in baseball and one of the worst teams in baseball. They are just 21-47 away from Turner Field this year. This team traded away the few good players they had and are building for the future. They are throwing a young starter today. The Nationals are going with Jordan Zimmerman who has been very good lately. Zimmerman is a perfect 5-1 in his last five starts against Atlanta and he has dominated this team. The Nationals are 9-2 in the last 11 meetings and 10-1 in their last 11 home games against the Braves. Play Washington.
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