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NBA ♦ Playoffs ♦ Saturday 4/30/16

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    “NBA Playoffs betting preview and odda”

    Thunder at Spurs

    Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs (-6, 200.5)

    The matchup between All-Star forwards Kevin Durant of Oklahoma City and Kawhi Leonard of San Antonio has the potential to be the series-deciding element as the Thunder and Spurs collide in the Western Conference semifinals. The teams open the series on Saturday in San Antonio and Leonard, the two-time NBA Defensive Player of the Year, will be assigned to slow down and frustrate Durant.

    Durant averaged 26 points as Oklahoma City defeated Dallas in five games in the opening round but his shooting was subpar at 36.8 percent from the field and 26.8 percent from 3-point range. Leonard averaged fewer points (21.5) during San Antonio’s first-round sweep of Dallas but he shot 52.7 percent from the field – including a torrid 61.1 from 3-point range – while contributing 2.8 blocked shots and 2.8 steals. “He’s grown so much,” Durant told reporters of Leonard. “He’s probably the best in the league at shooting the mid-range off the dribble. Can post up, dribble, shoot the 3, catch and shoot. Their team, their system, their continuity and how they move allows him to get free a lot of times and utilize his game.” This will be the third time in five seasons that the teams have met in the playoffs – the Thunder won in six games in 2012 to reach the NBA Finals and the Spurs’ six-game series victory in 2014 also advanced them to the NBA Finals.

    TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, TNT

    The Spurs opened Game 1 as 6-point home favorites over the Thunder, were shortly bet up to -6.5, but have since moved back to the opening number. The total meanwhile, has seen considerable movement. It has been bet down two and a half points from 203 to the current number of 200.5. Check out the complete line history here.

    ABOUT THE THUNDER (59-28, 40-46-1 ATS, 42-45 O/U):
    Oklahoma City’s four victories in the Dallas series were by an average of 23 points and point guard Russell Westbrook was in top form with five double-doubles – three points-assists and two points-rebounds – while averaging 26 points, 11.2 assists and 7.2 rebounds. “He’s got a lot of energy, he’s super aggressive and obviously one of the best point guards in the league,” Spurs point guard Tony Parker told reporters. “It’s just fun to play against him. He brings a lot of excitement to the game. It’s always a great matchup.” The Thunder would like to see more consistency from backup center Enes Kanter, who had outings of 28 and 21 points against Dallas and scored six or fewer points in two others.

    ABOUT THE SPURS (71-15, 47-39 ATS, 36-48-2 O/U):
    San Antonio won its games against Memphis by an average of 22 points and looked well-oiled with three of the four victories occurring by more than 20 points. Leonard and power forward LaMarcus Aldridge (14.5 average against the Grizzlies) are the offensive mainstays and old playoff stalwarts like center Tim Duncan, shooting guard Manu Ginobili and Parker have accepted lesser roles. “You’ve got to play both ends of the floor a little differently because he’s an All-Star player,” Durant said of Aldridge. “He’s a guy that can shoot over any shoulder, he can shoot from range, he can roll to the rim, so it’s a different dynamic when you play a guy like that, and that’s when you’ve got to be locked in and ready for anything.”


    * Thunder are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
    * Spurs are 0-6 ATS in their last six versus Northwest Division opponents.
    * Under is 4-0 in Spurs last four home games.
    * Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

    The early consensus has 54 percent of bettors backing the home side Spurs. When it comes to the total, 65 percent of wagers are on the over.



    San Antonio won six of last nine games with Oklahoma City, winning last three played here, by 4-8-39 points. Four of last five series games stayed under the total. Thunder beat Dallas in five games, scoring 116.0 ppg in winning last three games- they had lost last three road games in a row but won swept pair at Dallas. Spurs won last six games, sweeping a depleted Memphis squad four straight, with 96-87 closest of the four.

    Playoff tally:
    Favorites vs spread: 25-17, Over: 13-29


    StatFox Super Situations™ – FoxSheets

    Play Over – All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record, on Saturday games
    63-30 over the last 5 seasons. ( 67.7% | 30.0 units )
    14-9 this year. ( 60.9% | 4.1 units )

    Play On – Any team vs the money line (OKLAHOMA CITY) after going over the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, second half of the season
    124-88 over the last 5 seasons. ( 58.5% | 52.9 units )
    15-17 this year. ( 46.9% | -7.4 units )

    Play Under – Road teams where the first half total is 100.5 to 105 good team – outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game, after 3 straight wins by 10 points or more
    65-30 since 1997. ( 68.4% | 32.0 units )
    5-1 this year. ( 83.3% | 3.9 units )


    Game 1 – Thunder at Spurs
    By Kevin Rogers

    (3) Thunder at (2) Spurs – 8:35 PM EST – TNT

    2015-16 Meetings

    Oct. 28, 2015 – San Antonio 106 at Oklahoma City 112 (Thunder -4, Over 207.5)

    Mar. 12, 2016 – Oklahoma City 85 at San Antonio 93 (Thunder +8.5, Under 211.5)

    Mar. 26, 2016 – San Antonio 92 at Oklahoma City 111 (Thunder -12.5, Under 207)

    Apr. 12, 2016 – Oklahoma City 98 at San Antonio 102 – OT (Thunder +13, Under 203)

    The two teams chasing down Golden State for the crown in the Western Conference begin their highly-anticipated series on Saturday night from AT&T Center in San Antonio. The Spurs are back in the second round for the fourth time in five seasons after getting knocked by the Clippers in an epic seven-game opening round series in 2015. For the fifth time in six seasons, the Thunder have reached the conference semifinals, as OKC is seeking its fourth conference final appearance since 2011.

    San Antonio (71-15 SU, 47-39 ATS) cruised to a first round sweep of an undermanned Memphis squad in the opening round. The Spurs didn’t allow more than 95 points in any of the four victories against the Grizzlies, while three of those wins came by 21 points or more. Gregg Popovich’s squad covered in three of four contests, as the Spurs completed the total season sweep of Memphis by going 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS in eight matchups.

    The Thunder (59-28 SU, 40-46-1 ATS) finished off the Mavericks in five games of the conference quarterfinals, as all four victories came in blowout fashion. For the exception of a slip-up in a Game 2 loss as 14-point favorites, Billy Donovan’s club dominated in this series, while pulling away in the series clincher, 118-104, the third straight game in which the Thunder scored at least 118 points. The final three contests finished ‘over’ the total, while both Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook each averaged 26.0 points per game in the series.

    The home team won all four meetings this season, with three of the matchups taking place in the last six weeks. Oklahoma City held off San Antonio on opening night to win Donovan’s debut as head coach, 112-106 as four-point home favorites. The Thunder outscored the Spurs in the final quarter, 33-23, as Westbrook led the way for OKC with 33 points and 10 assists, while Durant scored 22 points on 6-of-19 shooting. Kawhi Leonard paced the Spurs by scoring 32 points on 13-of-22 shooting, while LaMarcus Aldridge struggled in his San Antonio debut by shooting 4-of-12 from the floor for 11 points.

    In their next matchup on March 12 at the AT&T Center, the Spurs rallied for a 93-85 victory as San Antonio limited OKC to 36 points in the second half. The Thunder were limited to 38% shooting as Durant and Westbrook combined to make 16-of-41 attempts from the floor, while the team knocked down only 2-of-18 shots from three-point range. San Antonio didn’t perform better from downtown by hitting 4-of-24 attempts from long range, while the Spurs won in spite of their starting backcourt of Danny Green and Tony Parker scoring nine points on 1-of-14 shooting.

    The final two meetings weren’t fair assessments as important players on each side rested. On March 26 in Oklahoma City, the Spurs sat Parker, Aldridge, Leonard, and Tim Duncan as the Thunder ripped the Spurs, 111-92 to easily cash as 12 ½-point favorites. In the last matchup in San Antonio on April 12, the Spurs held off the Thunder in overtime, 102-98. Oklahoma City covered as 13-point underdogs in spite of Durant and Westbrook sitting out, as the Thunder finished with a perfect 4-0 ATS record against San Antonio this season.

    San Antonio and Oklahoma City have turned into postseason rivals over the last few seasons, as the two teams met for the Western Conference championship in 2012 and 2014. The Thunder erased a 2-0 series deficit to beat the Spurs in four straight games to capture the franchise’s first conference title in Oklahoma City back in 2012 before OKC lost in five games of the NBA Finals to Miami. The Spurs picked up revenge two seasons later by eliminating the Thunder in six games of the Western finals, while closing out the series in overtime at Chesapeake Energy Arena.

    The Thunder haven’t had much luck at the AT&T Center in the postseason by compiling a 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS record in the last six playoff games at San Antonio. In the 2014 conference finals, the Spurs wiped out the Thunder in all three home contests with the margin of victory being 17, 35, and 28 points. Oklahoma City took care of its business at home in the last two series against San Antonio by winning and covering five of six games, including the series clincher in Game 6 of the 2012 conference finals.

    NBA expert Chris David provides some interesting notes on Oklahoma City in the underdog role, “The Thunder have been installed as an underdog 11 times this season and they went 1-10 in those games. Coincidentally, the lone win came at Utah and the only reason Oklahoma City was an underdog is because Durant was a game-time decision and he was inserted into the starting lineup late. In the 10 losses, OKC was 3-6-1 ATS (33%) and that number right there could have you buying the Spurs.”

    The Spurs lost only one home game this season and David doesn’t see San Antonio slowing up at the Alamo, “Another reason to back San Antonio in Game 1 is based on its success at home in the playoffs. The club has gone 23-7 SU and 19-11 ATS in its last 30 games at the AT&T Center and that includes a run of 13 straight wins in the series opener at home. The last time San Antonio dropped its first home game in a playoff series came in the 2011 NBA Playoffs when Memphis knocked them out in six games of their first round series.”

    From a totals perspective, David points out that the contrasting styles complicate things for bettors, “The total for Game 1 opened 202 ½ and early action has dropped the number as low as 200 ½ at a few major offshore shops. Similar to analyzing the side, your decision for the total on this matchup will come down to the Spurs top-ranked defense (92.3 PPG) against the second best offense in Oklahoma City (110.3 PPG).”

    So what will prevail? “The ‘under’ went 3-1 in the four regular season matchups between the pair and in the lone meaningful game in San Antonio, the Spurs captured an ugly 93-85 win. Including two easy winners in the first round versus Memphis, the Spurs have watched the ‘under’ go 8-2 in their last 10 home playoff games. In the 2014 playoff matchup between OKC and San Antonio, the ‘under’ went 4-2 with totals ranging from 206 ½ to 210,” David notes.

    According to Sportsbooks, the Spurs are listed as a -270 favorite to advance to the Western Conference finals (Bet $270 to win $100). The Thunder have proven in the past that they can rebound from an early series deficit against the Spurs, as Oklahoma City enters this series at +225 to knock out San Antonio (Bet $100 to win $225). San Antonio is right behind Golden State for the top spot to win the NBA championship at, as the Spurs enter this round at 2/1 odds to capture their sixth title in franchise history.


    NBA Basketball Betting Trends – Sat – April, 30

    Oklahoma City at San Antonio, 9:35 ET
    Oklahoma City: 3-13 ATS on road after playing 5 consecutive games as favorite
    San Antonio: 41-33 ATS after playing 2 consecutive games as favorite


    Johnny Goodtimes

    Double: (NBA Season +12*)

    Oklahoma City +6.5
    2 Units


    DR. BOB

    2 Star – San Antonio Spurs


    Power Play Wins




    CADILLAC: 20*
    SA Spurs -6.5

    spurs – OVER 201



    8:35 EST
    Rotation #501-502
    Thunder +6.5 over Spurs
    The Spurs were almost flawless this year at home, but the Thunder have matched up well with them as of late. Westbrook and Durant are superstars that have played together for some time now. This is a team that has been geared up to take that next big step for quite sometime now. This spread is a little too high. Take the Thunder.



    SA Spurs


    Big action on Thunder-Spurs series prices with second round tipping off Saturday
    By Patrick Everson

    While several teams continue to muddle through the first round of the NBA Playoffs, two teams are about to get down to business in second-round action. SouthPoint sports book director Chris Andrews and TopBet oddsmaker Mike Jerome about the only postseason game on the docket Saturday.

    Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs – Open: Spurs -6.5; Movement: none

    The seedings held up in the first round for these two teams, with the No. 2 Spurs and No. 3 Thunder advancing with relative ease in the Western Conference. San Antonio plowed past No. 7 Memphis in a four-game sweep, going 3-1 ATS in the process despite being a hefty double-digit favorite in all four games. Oklahoma City needed five games to dispatch No. 6 Dallas, going 3-2 ATS – and nearly 4-1 ATS, falling just a point short of covering a 14.5-point spread in a 118-104 Game 5 victory.

    Andrews said the line hasn’t moved at his SouthPoint book in Las Vegas, and that bettors haven’t really gotten into the series opener. But that doesn’t mean they’re not looking at both teams in other ways.

    “There’s not a whole lot of action on Game 1 yet,” he said. “However, we did quite a bit of action on the series, and it’s been really interesting. We opened [the Spurs] at -275, it went up to -300, and now it’s down to -265. We’ve got big bets on the series, but nothing on the sides.”

    At TopBet, the line also opened Spurs -6.5, where it remains, and Jerome said he wouldn’t be surprised if that number sticks through tonight’s tipoff.

    “It appears we will have a pretty small decision on Game 1, as 53 percent of the cash is backing San Antonio,” he said. “Based on a small decision for the shop, I expect us to use the opening number until game time.”

    Jerome also noted there’s been some interest in the Game 1 total.

    “We opened at 201.5, and within a couple of hours, we got a sharp bet on the under, so we moved to the current number of 201,” Jerome said. “Currently, 65 percent of the cash on the total is backing over 201.”





    Guaranteed pickstoday


    8:35pm Thunder vs. Spurs
    (2000 Stars)Spurs

    8:35pm Thunder vs. Spurs Over/Under
    (1000 Stars)over201

    Playoffs 0-3 yest 18-21-1 overall



    SA Spurs-6.5

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