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NBA ♦ Playoffs ♦ Thursday 4/21/16

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  • #41341


    10* MAIN EVENT! (9-2 L11, PERFECT!)
    Indiana Pacers

    I’m playing on INDIANA. I respect both these teams. I won with the Pacers in Game 1 and came back with the Raptors in Game 2. The Raptors were great on the road (24-17) this season.

    However, they still weren’t as good as the Pacers (26-15) were at home. The Raptors outscore teams by 2.5 points per game on the road but the Pacers outscore them by four here at Indiana.

    While the Raptors are 36-45 ATS off a double-digit win the past couple of seasons, the Pacers are 11-3 ATS their last 14, when playing with two day’s rest in between games. While it may not be “easy,” I expect homecourt to ultimately prove the difference tonight. 10* Burns Main Event


    Brandon Lang

    20 Dime Golden State over Houston.
    The current line on this game is -5 in Vegas and Offshore. Be sure to shop around for the best line available


    Sports Insurance Adjusters

    Dallas Mavs+8.5

    Free Play: Houston +5


    SB Professor Original NBA Picks 4/21

    No play



    Root Trust Basketball Service

    Pacers (+1½) over Raptors
    7:30 PM (EDT) — Bankers Life Fieldhouse

    ‘No Limit’
    Rockets (+5½) over Warriors
    8:30 PM (EDT) — Toyota Center
    No Limit–Houston + Heading back to Houston for Game 3, it is safe to assume that the Rockets’ role players will fare better in front of their home crowd. The series moves to Houston with the Rockets desperately trying to avoid the 0-3 hole that no team has ever successfully overcome. Hardin can score enough but it”s Dwight Howard that has taken most of the criticism. He should have read enough newspapers since their last loss and come to play. Michael Beasley, Clint Capela and Jason Terry are all capable of turning in a double-figure scoring night off the bench and look to make their impact. The players need to do it for their fans and the entire City of Houston to take their minds off the destruction done the past few days. Assume that Harden will get enough help from his supporting cast to help his team pull off a win they need to stay alive in the series. Curry is limited by his sprained ankle and might not even play. There”s no pressing need. Finally, there”s one thing we learned about this Rockets team from last season, it’s that they won’t quit. Slow allay Thompson down and the Rockets win game 3. Do I hear money line? (25% of your bet).



    2* Rabid Dog!
    Indiana Pacers



    8-Unit Play. #533. Take Oklahoma City -8.5
    over Dallas
    (Thursday @ 7:05pm est)
    We roll with Oklahoma City here as they hook up against Dallas in Game 3 of this series and the first on in Dallas. Oklahoma City could not have played worse in their last game with Durant shooting one of the worst field goal percentages of his life and the history of the league frankly. It was a horrible effort and it was a slap in the face in the end as they end up losing at the buzzer. Then, they have to face the trolling of Javale McGee on top of that, the antics of Charlie Villanueva as well and Mark Cuban running around the Thunder’s Home Court. Very angry squad here that will step up as the Thunder do not just want to win this game but they want to win this game running away. Note, that OKC is one of the best teams coming off a home loss and that combined with this being a public fade as well is something that we favor. The Thunder have a solid tendency to step up against winning teams on the road as they are 7-2 ATS versus winning teams on the road, 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games against a team with a straight up winning record and 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 meetings in Dallas. You have a team that from the metrics point of view could not have performed worse, you have a team that was hurt both personally and professionally with the heat they took when they lost the game, a team that is angered by the antics of the opponent and from start to finish look for this team to lay the law down in Dallas. We like the Thunder by more than 15 this evening.



    9:35 EST
    Rotation #537-538
    Rockets +5 over Warriors
    As of 4PM EST Steph Curry isn’t playing tonight. Simply put with Curry out of the lineup this team is just average at best. If you look at their numbers without Curry you will find they have been outscored by opponents. Houston doesn’t have a shot in this series, but they as a team still are fighting. A win here and anything is possible. The Rockets have a lot of shooters and should take advantage of Curry being out of the line up. Take Houston.


    Curry’s uncertain status for Game 3 has challenged oddsmakers
    By Patrick Everson

    Tonight’s Game 3 of the NBA first-round playoff series between the Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets is a little like that classic song from The Clash.

    “Will he play or will he sit?”

    That would be reigning league MVP Stephen Curry, who tweaked an ankle in the Warriors’ Game 1 blowout win and cover, then sat out Game 2 Monday night as Golden State narrowly covered the 8.5-point closing line with a 115-106 home victory. Curry’s uncertain status for tonight’s 9:30 Eastern tip has challenged the oddsmakers.

    “It’s like a guessing game,” said Jason Simbal, vice president of risk management for CG Technology, which operates Las Vegas sportsbooks at The Cosmopolitan, the M and the Venetian, among others. “We opened [Warriors] -5.5, then went to 6, which would lead you to believe people think Curry might play, or that they’ll cover without him.

    “But then, when it went to 6, they all bet the Rockets. Now it’s back to 5.5.”

    Greg Sindall, senior oddsmaker for SportsInteraction, saw similar movement.

    “We opened the game with the Warriors as 5.5-point favorites,” Sindall. “The public jumped on that right away, and we pushed it out to 6. Some sharp money came in on Houston +6, so we’ve now brought it back to 5.5. There is still no confirmation on Curry’s status for tonight, so we’re watching very closely.”

    An oddsmaker for BetNow said his shop also currently has dropped Golden State to -5, after opening at 5.5.

    “The line might not change that much if the Warriors announce that Curry is not playing,” the oddsmaker said. “But if he does play tonight, the line might see a drastic change. So far, the action has been all in favor of the Warriors.”

    Simbal said that’s the case at his shops, at least with the public bettors.

    “The public is gonna bet Golden State for sure,” he said. “The sharps will wait to see if the number goes up again. They’re not gonna take 5.5.”

    In another first-round contest tonight, CG books have Oklahoma City as 8.5-point chalk at Dallas for Game 3 of a series that’s surprisingly knotted at a game apiece. The Thunder stumbled to an 85-84 loss giving 14 points at home in Game 2.

    “What’s interesting is that bettors are laying the 8.5 with Oklahoma City, but then taking the Mavericks at +340 on the money line,” Simbal said. “So we’re gonna need to be in a spot where Oklahoma City wins by 1 to 7 points.”

    Said BetNow’s oddsmaker: “Game 2 was a real surprise, as a lot of action was riding on Oklahoma City. For Game 3, the action has leveled, but it’s still more for the Thunder. The line has shifted from -8 to -9.5 and it might stay that way.”

    SportsInteraction also has the Thunder at -9, though Sindall thinks it could go higher still.

    “The line bounced around a bit after opening, and we settled on Oklahoma City -8.5 for a while,” he said. “But the public started backing them steadily. We’ve brought the line back to -9, with 61 percent of the handle on the Thunder. I would not be surprised to see it go out further before tipoff. Kevin Durant isn’t going to miss 26 shots again!”


    MVP Lock Club

    Lock Of The Day
    Houston Rockets +5.5


    Power Play Wins



    Wise Guy Insider

    POD – Oklahoma City Thunder -8.5



    50 Dime – OVER 193 – raptors / pacers



    7-Unit play. Take ‘Over’ 196.5
    Oklahoma City at Dallas
    (7 p.m., Thursday, April 21)

    5-Unit Play. Take #533 Oklahoma City (-8.5)
    over Dallas
    (7 p.m., Thursday, April 21)



    4/21/16 #536 IND Pacers +1 -110
    Tips at 7:30 EST

    4/21/16 #534 DAL Mavs +9 1/2 -105
    Tips at 7:00 EST

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