- December 24, 2015 at 10:23 am #21781
Bowl Tech Trends – Week 2
By Bruce Marshall
UCONN vs. MARSHALL ‘St. Petersburg Bowl’
UConn just 2-4 vs. line away from home TY and 3-8 vs. spread away from Rentsch since Diaco arrived in 2014. Diaco 4-4 as dog TY after 2-7 mark in role in LY’s rough debut. First bowl in five years for Huskies. Herd has won and covered last four bowls since 2009 and is 9-3 its last 12 as chalk away from home.
♦Marshall, based on team trends.
MIAMI-FLA. At WASHINGTON STATE ‘Sun Bowl’
Wazzu had covered eight in a row prior to season-ending loss in Apple Cup vs. Huskies in a game minus Luke Falk. Leach 13-7 vs. spread last 20 away from Pullman Canes have lost their last five bowls SU, 1-6 vs. spread last seven bowls. Miami 3-2 as dog in 2015 but was 1-6 in role previous two years.
♦WSU, based on team trends.
SOUTHERN MISS at WASHINGTON ‘Dallas Bowl’
USM has covered 10 of first 12 this season prior to CUSA title loss at WKU and was 4-2 as dog in 2015. Also 4-0 vs. spread in non-league games. Petersen 4-3 vs. spread vs. non-Pac 12 since arriving last season in Seattle and is 10-6 vs. line last 16 overall with Huskies.
♦USM, based on recent trends.
INDIANA vs. DUKE ‘Yankee Pinstripe Bowl’
IU first bowl since 2007. Hoosiers around .500 in most spread categories past few years, though they have covered 4 of last 6 away from home. Cutcliffe winless SU last three years in bowls but has covered last two. Duke no bowl wins SU since the 1954 team beat Nebraska 34-7 in the Orange Bowl. Blue Devils lost and failed to cover four straight down stretch before finale win over Wake Forest. Cutcliffe had been 24-9-1 vs. line in the 34 games prior to late slump.
♦Slight to Duke, based on extended trends.
TULSA vs. VIRGINIA TECH ‘Independence Bowl’
Tulsa covered all six games on road this season, and is 9-1 vs. number last 10 away from home. Golden Hurricane also 4-1 SU and vs. line last four bowls (though this is first since 2012 Liberty). Beamer just 7-9-1 vs. line last 17 bowls. Beamer also just 4-9 last 13 as chalk away from home.
♦Tulsa, based on team trends.
NEBRASKA vs. UCLA ‘Foster Farms Bowl’
These teams met in 2012-13 with UCLA winning and covering each. Mora has won and covered last two bowls while Huskers have covered last two bowls after dropping previous three SU and vs. number. Mike Riley 5-3 vs. line in bowls with OSU. Riley 3-1 as dog this season and 29-18 as dog since 20008, which includes 1-5 mark LY in role at Oregon State.
♦Slight to Nebraska, based on team trends.December 24, 2015 at 10:25 am #21782
Preview: Connecticut at Marshall
When: 11:00 AM ET, Saturday, December 26, 2015
Where: Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, Florida
‘ST. PETERSBURG BOWL’ STORYLINES
1. Sitting at 5-5 with games against Houston and Temple remaining, it appeared Connecticut was destined to miss the postseason for the fifth straight year. The Huskies, however, handed the Cougars their only loss of the season to become bowl eligible and face Marshall in the St. Petersburg (Fla.) Bowl on Dec. 26. It is UConn’s first postseason appearance since meeting Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl in 2010 while the Thundering Herd are looking for their third bowl victory in as many seasons.
2. The Huskies, who are 21-39 overall since their showcase in the Fiesta Bowl, shocked the No. 16 Cougars 20-17 in their penultimate regular-season contest. UConn will have Bryant Shirreffs back under center after he suffered a severe concussion in that game. Shirreffs admitted that he lost consciousness after receiving a blow to the helmet. “It was a pretty big hit, it is probably the hardest hit I’ve taken,” the sophomore told reporters
3. Marshall won the Boca Raton Bowl last season and has beaten just one team, Southern Mississippi, which earned a bowl berth this year. The game, which will be played at Tropicana Field – the baseball home of the Tampa Bay Rays, shapes up to be a low-scoring affair as the Thundering Herd finished the season ranked 14th in scoring defense at 18.4 points per game while the Huskies were 17th at 19.8. Marshall is 9-3 in bowl appearances all-time and has won nine of its last 10 appearances but is unlikely to have star running back Devon Johnson, who missed the final five games of the season with a back injury.
TV: 11 a.m. ET, ESPN.
LINE: Marshall -4
ABOUT CONNECTICUT (6-6, 4-4 American Athletic Conference):
UConn’s offense is paced by Arkeel Newsome, who ranks 18th in the nation in all-purpose yards (1,621) while Shirreffs threw for 1,992 yards while completing 60.3 percent of his passes, the school’s best numbers since Dan Orlovsky in 2004. The Huskies lost five of six games during a dreadful stretch in the middle of their schedule and are 3-2 all time in bowl games. UConn placed five players on the all-conference team led by Jamar Summers, who was tied for third in the nation with seven interceptions and was its only first-team choice.
ABOUT MARSHALL (9-3, 6-2 Conference USA):
Marshall won seven straight games but dropped two of its final three contests to fall into a tie for second place in the C-USA East Division. Freshman Chase Litton took over the starting job at quarterback in the third week of the season, won his first seven starts and finished the season with 2,387 yards passing with 22 touchdowns and seven interceptions. The Herd has a strong special teams unit paced by punter Tyler Williams averaging 44.3 yards and DeAndre Reaves, who had 47 receptions and is a major threat in the return game.
PREDICTION: Connecticut 24, Marshall 21December 24, 2015 at 10:26 am #21783
Preview: Miami at Washington State
When: 2:00 PM ET, Saturday, December 26, 2015
Where: Sun Bowl Stadium, El Paso, Texas
‘HYUNDAI SUN BOWL’ STORYLINES
1. Miami (Fla.) goes after its first postseason victory since 2006 when it takes on Washington State in the Hyundai Sun Bowl on Dec. 26 at El Paso, Texas. The Hurricanes won four of five games after coach Al Golden was fired and Larry Scott, who took over in an interim basis, will try to end the school’s five-game losing streak in bowl games since beating Nevada 21-20 in the 2006 MPC Computers Bowl at Boise, ID. The Cougars built their best record (8-4) since 2003, when they went 10-3 with a Holiday Bowl victory, and have played only one postseason game since (2013 New Mexico Bowl).
2. Two efficient, productive 6-4 sophomore quarterbacks face off when Miami’s Brad Kaaya meets Luke Falk of the Cougars. Kaaya, who missed 1 1/2 games with a concussion in midseason, has thrown for at least 3,000 yards in two straight years while connecting for 41 touchdowns with 16 interceptions (12 as a freshman). Falk returned to practice after missing the regular-season finale against Washington with a concussion and has completed 70.7 percent of his passes with 36 TDs and 4,266 yards this season but isn’t expected to have top receiver Gabe Marks (ankle).
3. The teams are tied for 83rd in the nation in scoring defense (28.8), and a big play on that side of the ball could turn the tide in a game that features two high-powered offenses. Washington State leads the nation in red-zone conversions for TDs at 94.3 percent but is near the bottom in sacks allowed (39). The Hurricanes have 15 interceptions, led by six from Artie Burns, and 24 sacks while ranking seventh in the country in turnover margin (plus-13).
TV: 2 p.m. ET, CBS.
LINE: Washington State –3
ABOUT MIAMI (8-4, 5-3 ACC):
Kaaya was hampered by an inconsistent rushing attack that ranks 116th in the nation but still threw for 3,019 yards with 15 touchdowns and gives 2016 coach Mark Richt a dependable quarterback around whom to build. Wide receivers Stacy Coley, Rashawn Scott and Herb Waters each have at least 38 receptions and 600 yards as Kaaya has completed 61.7 percent of his throws. Joseph Yearby needs 61 rushing yards to reach 1,000 and the Hurricanes boast one of the top kickers in the nation in Michael Badgley, who has made 24-of-27 attempts inside 50 yards.
ABOUT WASHINGTON STATE (8-4, 6-3 Pac-12):
Falk, who was named to the All-Pac 12 first team, leads an offense that has nine players with at least 200 receiving yards. Marks, who was injured in the 45-10 loss to Washington on Nov. 27th, is fourth in the nation in receptions (99), tied for fourth in receiving TDs (14) and 19th in receiving yards (1,125), while Dom Williams has made 73 catches and is three yards shy of 1,000. Defensive lineman Hercules Mata’afa (six sacks) was named a freshman All-American by USA Today and sophomore linebacker Peyton Pelluer leads the team with 98 tackles.
PREDICTION: Miami 41, Washington State 32December 24, 2015 at 10:27 am #21784
Preview: Washington at Southern Mississippi
When: 2:20 PM ET, Saturday, December 26, 2015
Where: Cotton Bowl Stadium, Dallas, Texas
‘ZAXBY’S HEART OF DALLAS BOWL’ STORYLINES
1. Zaxby’s Heart of Dallas Bowl is the location for the first postseason game between Pac-12 and Conference USA teams when Washington meets Southern Miss on Dec. 26 at the historic Cotton Bowl. The Huskies needed wins over Oregon State and Washington State in the season’s final two weeks to become bowl eligible and play in the postseason for a sixth straight season. Led by third-year head coach Todd Monken and quarterback Nick Mullens, the Golden Eagles were the most improved program in FBS this season (six more wins than last season) and qualified for their first bowl since 2011.
2. The Southern Miss offense has gone from scoring 19 points per game in 2014 to 40.6 points this season, scoring 50 or more a school-record five times. The Golden Eagles have broken single-season school records for completions (312), passing yards (4,263), total offensive yards (6,758), touchdowns (67), and points (528). Mullens, the Conference USA Offensive Player of the Year, has completed 63.4 percent of his 483 passes for 4,145 yards and 36 TDs against 12 interceptions.
3. The Golden Eagles’ talented offense will be going up against the best defense in the Pac-12. Washington led the conference and was among the top 30 in FBS in points allowed per game (17.8), yards against (349.9) and red zone defense (77.8 percent). Cornerback Sidney Jones and safety Budda Baker earned spots on the All-Pac-12 first team, Azeem Victor led the team with 88 tackles while fellow linebackers Cory Littleton and Travis Feeney combined for 13 sacks.
TV: 2:20 p.m. ET, ESPN.
LINE: Washington –8.5
ABOUT WASHINGTON (6-6, 4-5 PAC-12):
Running back Myles Gaskin, who set school freshman records with 1,121 yards and 10 touchdowns, will be the focal point of the offense. He ran for 265 yards as the Huskies outscored the Beavers and Cougars by a combined 80 points to close out the season. In his final eight games, Gaskins ran for 912 yards (5.6 per carry), but quarterback Jake Browning (62.9 percent completion, 2,671 yards, 16 TDs, 10 Interceptions) had an inconsistent season, throwing four scoring passes each in wins over Arizona and Oregon State but multiple interceptions in losses to California and Arizona State.
ABOUT SOUTHERN MISS (9-4, 7-1 C-USA):
Mullens posted an historic season but he was shut down in the Conference USA championship game, throwing for only 181 yards with three interceptions in the 45-28 loss to Western Kentucky. Casey Martin is his favorite target with 74 catches for 855 yards and seven TDs, but Michael Thomas is the deep threat, grabbing 62 balls for 1,201 yards and 12 scores. The Golden Eagles’ run game is also potent, as senior Jalen Richard (1,098 yards rushing, 14 TDs, 5.9 yards per carry) and sophomore Ito Smith (1,088 yards rushing, eight TDs, seven yards per carry) combined for more than 2,900 yards from scrimmage and 27 scores.
PREDICTION: Washington 44, Southern Miss 28December 24, 2015 at 10:28 am #21785
Preview: Indiana at Duke
When: 3:30 PM ET, Saturday, December 26, 2015
Where: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, New York
‘NEW ERA PINSTRIPE BOWL’ STORYLINES
1. Indiana and Duke, two schools known more for their prowess on the basketball court, meet on the gridiron for the first time since 1984 – this time in a baseball stadium – as they invade Yankee Stadium for the Pinstripe Bowl on Dec. 26. Indiana is in a bowl game for the first time since 2007 and plays in just its second since 1993. The Blue Devils are making their fourth bowl appearance in a row but are in search of their first postseason win since the Cotton Bowl on Jan. 2, 1961.
2. Both teams boast quality quarterbacks, with Hoosiers senior Nate Sudfeld leading the Big Ten in passing yards (3,184), touchdowns (24) and pass efficiency (153.9). His play in back-to-back road wins to end the regular season lifted Indiana into the bowl picture, as he threw for 735 yards and eight touchdowns with no interceptions against Maryland and Purdue. Duke signal caller Thomas Sirk is not quite on that level as a passer, but he did rank third in the ACC in pass completions and can hurt opponents with his legs, compiling a team-high 648 yards and six touchdowns on the ground.
3. The Hoosiers and Blue Devils both had strong starts before gut-punch losses altered their seasons and may have prevented them from attaining a more notable bowl berth. Indiana was 4-2 and up 25 points at home against a bad Rutgers team, but it collapsed in a 55-52 loss that was the lowlight during a six-game losing streak. Duke was 6-1 and on top of the ACC Coastal division before visiting Miami utilized eight laterals in a wild kickoff return for a touchdown that sent the Blue Devils to a damaging 30-27 defeat that started a four-game losing streak.
TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC.
LINE: Indiana -2
ABOUT INDIANA (6-6, 2-6 Big Ten):
The long layoff before the bowl game allows running back Jordan Howard’s knee to heal up, and head coach Kevin Wilson said there is a chance the junior plays, which could transform Indiana’s attack. Howard produced 1,213 yards in only nine games but missed the finale against Purdue and later had his knee scoped. He averaged 168.8 yards a game during the Hoosiers’ 4-0 start and 206 in narrow losses to Iowa and Michigan down the stretch.
ABOUT DUKE (7-5, 4-4 ACC):
Behind Sirk and a balanced attack that features five receivers with at least 30 catches and four rushers with more than 300 yards, the Blue Devils should move the ball against an Indiana squad that ranked last in the Big Ten in total defense. Duke will want to shore up its defensive unit, though, after it was lit up for an average of 42.3 points during the four-game losing streak. Senior safety Jeremy Cash, who had 101 tackles – 18 for a loss – and 2.5 sacks, shined through it all to claim ACC Defensive Player of the Year honors.
PREDICTION: Indiana 55, Duke 49December 24, 2015 at 10:29 am #21786
Preview: Tulsa at Virginia Tech
When: 5:45 PM ET, Saturday, December 26, 2015
Where: Independence Stadium, Shreveport, Louisiana
‘CAMPING WORLD INDEPENDENCE BOWL’ STORYLINES
1. The storied career of coach Frank Beamer will come to an end when he leads Virginia Tech to its 22nd straight bowl appearance. Beamer, who made his first bowl appearance with the Hokies in the 1993 Independence Bowl, will guide them one last time when they face Tulsa in this year’s edition in Shreveport, LA. on Dec. 26. The legendary coach announced his impending retirement earlier in the season and will move on to a different position in the athletic department at the end of the campaign.
2. “I want to finish this thing in a good way, but we’ve got to go play well,” Beamer told reporters. “Tulsa can throw the football. Any time you can throw the football the way they do, you’re always dangerous. We’ve got to get ready for that.” The Golden Hurricane became bowl eligible by showing off that passing offense in a 45-34 win at Tulane in the regular-season finale. Dane Evans threw for 367 yards and three touchdowns in that triumph as Tulsa overcame a 10-point, fourth-quarter deficit to become bowl eligible for the first time since 2012.
3. The Golden Hurricane were set to deal with upheaval on the coaching staff as well, but offensive coordinator Sterlin Gilbert reportedly turned down a three-year contract to take the same position at Texas. A1serviceplays.com Gilbert oversaw a unit that averaged 27.9 points and ranked 11th in FBS with an average of 329.8 passing yards. The Hokies ranked ninth nationally in passing defense, limiting opponents to an average of 173.8 yards.
TV: 5:45 p.m. ET, ESPN.
LINE: Virginia Tech -13.5
ABOUT TULSA (6-6):
The Independence Bowl will mark the career finales for senior running back Zach Langer and wide receiver Keyarris Garrett, who combined for 24 touchdowns in the regular season. Garrett is second in FBS with 1,451 receiving yards and torched Tulane for 216 on 10 catches in the regular-season finale. The two seniors make things easier for junior quarterback Evans, who needs 42 passing yards to reach 4,000 on the season.
ABOUT VIRGINIA TECH (6-6):
Beamer made his reputation by being dominant on special teams, and kicker Joey Slye is ready to send his coach out on a winning note. “It’s another bowl game, and coach Beamer is taking it like another bowl game,” Slye told reporters. “That’s kind of trickling down to the rest of the players. We’ve got business to do, we’ve got business to handle, so let’s go out and handle business.” Beamer is set to be replaced by former Memphis coach Justin Fuente, whose team ripped Tulsa 66-42 in the regular season.
PREDICTION: Virginia Tech 27, Tulsa 24December 24, 2015 at 10:30 am #21787
Preview: UCLA at Nebraska
When: 9:15 PM ET, Saturday, December 26, 2015
Where: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, California
‘FOSTER FARMS BOWL’ STORYLINES
1. UCLA’s bid to go to the Rose Bowl fell apart late while Nebraska thought it had played its way out of bowl berth entirely, at least until the NCAA stepped in. The Bruins settled for a spot in the Foster Farms Bowl at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif., on Dec. 26 after coming up one game short of playing in the Pac-12 title game. The Cornhuskers are one of three five-win programs that benefited from the NCAA’s decision to use Academic Progress Rate as the main tiebreaking mechanism to help it reach the 80 teams needed to fill out 40 bowl games.
2. Nebraska is assured of finishing with a losing record for the third time since 1962, but its seven losses have come by a total of 31 points under first-year coach Mike Riley. The Cornhuskers became only the second FBS program since 2006 to lose four times on the final play of regulation or in overtime. The results started to get better as some key players began to get healthy near the end of the season, highlighted by Nebraska’s 39-38 comeback win over Big Ten champion Michigan State on Nov. 7.
3. UCLA, which has won 11 consecutive non-conference contests – which includes a home win over Nebraska in 2013 to complete a two-game series sweep – controlled its own destiny in the Pac-12 South entering the final weekend of the regular season before falling to eventual champion USC. A1serviceplays.com The Bruins are 0-2 at this event, losing to Florida State in the 2006 Emerald Bowl and Illinois in the 2011 Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl – both of which were played in San Francisco. Coach Jim Mora can notch his 38th career victory with UCLA in this contest, however, and break his tie with Terry Donahue for the most wins over his first four seasons at the school.
TV: 9:15 p.m. ET, ESPN.
LINE: UCLA -6.5
ABOUT UCLA (8-4, 5-4 Pac-12):
The Bruins witnessed a number of record-setting performances this season as kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn became the conference’s all-time leading scorer and receiver Jordan Payton become the school’s all-time receptions leader. Quarterback Josh Rosen threw two interceptions against the Trojans to stop his streak of not throwing one at 245 attempts, one of several school records he broke en route to earning Pac-12 Offensive Freshman of the Year honors. Paul Perkins ranks third in the conference in rushing (1,275 yards) while first-team All-Pac 12 junior defensive tackle Kenny Clark is the leader of a defense that is tied for first in the conference in fewest yards allowed per play (4.9).
ABOUT NEBRASKA (5-7, 3-5 Big Ten):
Tommy Armstrong Jr. operates the Big Ten’s second-ranked total offense and is the only Cornhusker to record two seasons with at least 3,000 total yards, but threw nine of his 16 interceptions over the final three contests. Jordan Westerkamp tied Nate Swift for the most single-season receptions in school history (63) in Nebraska’s 28-20 loss to Iowa in the regular-season finale while tight end Cethan Carter began to emerge as a valuable big-play threat for Armstrong as the regular season drew to a close. Although defensive tackles Vincent Valentine and Maliek Collins combined to miss seven games in 2015, Nebraska still ranks eighth in the country in run defense (113.4 yards per game).
PREDICTION: UCLA 34, Nebraska 31December 24, 2015 at 10:32 am #21788
‘St Petersburg Bowl’, Dec 26
Marshall lost two of last three games, is 1-3 vs bowl teams; they won last four bowl games, allowing 17.5 ppg (2-0 as fave)- they won this bowl back in 2011. Thundering Herd starts a freshman QB. UConn is in its first bowl in five years; Huskies are 1-5 vs bowl teams this year- they scored total of only 30 points in last three games. Faves are 3-2 vs spread in this bowl last five years, with an average total of 54.4. C-USA non-conference favorites are 4-4 this year; AAC underdogs 13-10.
‘Sun Bowl’, El Paso
Over last six years, Pac-12 teams are 7-1 vs ACC teams in bowls, with one win in 2012 Sun Bowl. Miami is 0-5 in bowl games last seven years, scoring 15.6 ppg; Hurricanes won four of last five games after 58-0 loss to Clemson- they are 4-1 in games decided by 6 or less points. Mike Leach is back in west Texas with Washington State team that went 8-3 in last 11 games after losing opener to I-AA team. Wazzu is 3-1 as favorite this year; they lost 48-45 to Colorado State in bowl game two years ago, their only bowl since ’03.
‘Heart of Dallas Bowl’
Southern Mississippi was 4-32 last three years; now they’re 9-4, winning six in row before losing C-USA title game 45-28 at WKU. Golden Eagles are in first bowl since ’11- underdogs covered four of their last five bowls. Pac-12 teams are 12-6 in bowls last two years; Washington lost three of its last four bowls, giving up 35.5 ppg. Huskies won last two games, scoring 97 points to become bowl eligible; they’re 1-6 scoring less than 31 points. Favorites won/covered this bowl last four years, with average total of 54.8.
‘Pinstripe Bowl’, Bronx
Duke lost four of last five games, allowing 38 ppg after a 6-1 start; they threw three guys off team, lost All-American safety to injury. Since ’89, Blue Devils are 0-5 in bowl games, allowing 43.8 ppg. Last six years, Big 14 teams are 5-2 in bowls vs ACC teams. Indiana is in first bowl since ’07; their last bowl was 1991 Copper Bowl. Hoosiers lost six games in row during season, losing by 8 or less points to Iowa-Michigan-Ohio State; they also blew 52-26 lead in loss to Rutgers. Underdog covered all four (3-1SU) Pinstripe Bowls.
‘Independence Bowl’, Shreveport
This is Frank Beamer’s last game at Virginia Tech; Hokies are 2-3 in last five bowls- two of five went to OT. Tech won three of last four games to get bowl eligible; their last two wins were by total of five points- they’re 3-4 as favorite, three of their five I-A wins are by 15+ points. Tulsa was 5-19 last two years, is 4-3 vs spread as an underdog this year; they are in first bowl since ’12- they’re 4-1 in last five bowls, scoring 44.4 ppg/ Favorites are 3-2 vs spread in this bowl last five years; average total in last four, 57.5.
‘Foster Farms Bowl’, Santa Clara
5-7 Nebraska is here because not enough teams won six games; Cornhuskers lost four of last five bowls, losing twice to Pac-12 squads. Nebraska is 3-5 vs bowl teams this year; they’re 1-5 in games decided by 5 or less points. Mora is 2-1 in bowls, scoring 42-40 in last two; Bruins lost this bowl 20-14 to Illinois in ’11; unsure how excited they are with this trip up north. UCLA OC Mazzone was hospitalized LW with blood clot in his lung. Pac-12/Big 14 split last eight bowl meetings.December 24, 2015 at 10:33 am #21789
StatFox Super Situations™ – FoxSheets
CFB | TULSA at VIRGINIA TECH
Play Against – Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (TULSA) excellent passing team – with a completion pct of 62% or better, after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt last game
115-62 since 1997. ( 65.0% | 46.8 units )
7-5 this year. ( 58.3% | 1.5 units )
CFB | MIAMI at WASHINGTON ST
Play Against – All teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (WASHINGTON ST) off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a conference rival against opponent off 2 straight wins against conference rivals
30-10 over the last 10 seasons. ( 75.0% | 0.0 units )
5-2 this year. ( 71.4% | 0.0 units )
CFB | INDIANA at DUKE
Play Against – Any team (INDIANA) in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences, after a road game where both teams score 31 points or more
67-31 since 1997. ( 68.4% | 32.9 units )
2-2 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.2 units )December 24, 2015 at 10:34 am #21790
(229) SO MISSISSIPPI at (230) WASHINGTON U
Time: 2:20 PM EST
5% WASHINGTON U -8.5 (-108)
I’m laying the points with Washington on Saturday. Great season for Southern Miss, but we went against them in their finale and cashed when the Eagles lost 45-28 to Western Kentucky. And we say now what we said then, Southern Miss has beaten just one team that currently owns a .500 record or better. The win came against La Tech. Southern Miss won 58-24, but the final score was misleading. The Eagles led 24-17 well into the third quarter, but eventually took advantage of no less than seven La Tech turnovers. Before the 17-point loss to WKU, and before the game with La Tech, Southern Miss played just two other teams with a winning record, losing 34-16 to Mississippi State and 31-10 to Marshall. That 13 ppg average was a far cry from the 47 ppg they scored against their other 10 opponents (before WKU). And high powered Southern Miss averaged just 4.92 yards per play, 3.2 yards per run, and 6.13 yards per pass with two TD passes and three INTs. Those were a few of the reasons we backed WKU a few weeks ago and are some of the same reasons we’ll back Washington in this one. The Huskies scored a coaching coup when Chris Peterson agreed to sign-on, and this is one coach we know will have his team focused. Washington is 6-6 SU, but just 15 points from a 9-3 mark. And they won their final two games with ease, outscoring Oregon State & Washington State, 97-17. The defense is the best in the Pac-12 and will be a serious step-up in level of competition for Southern Miss. RB Myles Gaskin leads the U-W offense and I expect the offensive line to provide plenty of room, eventually opening up lanes in the passing game. We should note that teams off of back-to-back wins by 28 or more points are on a 60-23 ATS run, provided their opponent allowed more than 36 ppg in their previous contest. And Washington is on an 8-1 ATS run as a favorite of 3 1/2 to 10 points, outscoring those nine opponents by 22 ppg. I’m laying the points with Washington, my Main Event. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.December 24, 2015 at 10:38 am #21791
OVER 61.5 – Miami Florida vs Washington St.December 24, 2015 at 10:39 am #21792
20* Washington -8.5
15* UConn +5
15* Tulsa +14December 24, 2015 at 11:16 am #21802
$500 Virginia Tech -13.5December 24, 2015 at 11:17 am #21803
TulsaDecember 25, 2015 at 11:27 am #21942
SMART SPORTS INVESTMENTS
Risked 2 units to win 1.9
Marshall -4.5 -105 vs Connecticut
Risked 5 units to win 4.76
Indiana -2.5 -105 vs Duke
Risked 3 units to win 2.73
UCLA -6.5 -110 vs Nebraska
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