- December 23, 2015 at 1:39 pm #21635
Bowl Tech Trends – Week 2
By Bruce Marshall
MIDDLE TENNESSEE vs. WESTERN MICHIGAN ‘Bahamas Bowl’
Rick Stockstill 1-3 SU and vs. line in bowls with MTSU, though this is only second bowl appearance for Blue Raiders since 2010. MTSU covered last four this season and was 8-4 vs. line in 2015. WMU 7-5 vs. spread in 2015 and 17-8 vs. spread since 2014, though recent bowl history spotty (0-3 SU and vs. line since 2008).
♦Slight to MTSU, based on recent trends.
CINCINNATI vs. SAN DIEGO STATE ‘Hawaii Bowl’
Aztecs won last nine SU TY, but were 0-4 vs. spread against non-MW and now 0-6 last six vs. non-MW foes. Rocky Long 1-3 SU and vs. line in bowls with SDSU, 2-7 SU and vs. line in bowls in career. Cincy no wins or covers last two bowls, and Tuberville just 1-7 vs. spread last 8 vs. non-American foes.
♦Slight to SDSU, based on recent trends.December 23, 2015 at 1:39 pm #21636
College Football Betting Trends – Thurs – Dec, 24
Mid Tennessee State at Western Michigan, 12:00 ET
Mid Tenn St: 7-18 ATS in road games after playing 3 straight conference games
W Michigan: 6-0 ATS on road after game where they committed 1 or less turnovers
Cincinnati at San Diego State, 8:00 ET
Cincinnati: 0-8 ATS in road games in non-conference games
San Diego St: 5-1 ATS off 2 straight wins against conference rivalsDecember 23, 2015 at 1:40 pm #21637
‘Christmas Eve’ College Football Bowl Games Betting Preview
‘Popeyes Bahamas Bowl’
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs. Western Michigan Broncos (-5, 65)
Game to be played at Thomas A. Robinson Stadium, Nassau Bahamas
Both Middle Tennessee and Western Michigan ended their regular seasons on a good note and look prepared to put up a boatload of points in the Popeyes Bahamas Bowl on Christmas Eve. Led by quarterback Brent Stockstill, who set the Conference USA passing record for a freshman with 3,678 yards, the Blue Raiders overcame a 3-5 start with four straight wins down the stretch, the last two by a combined 69 points. The Broncos’ balanced attack ranked second in the Mid-American Conference in total offense and helped get the squad past then-No. 24 Toledo 35-30 in the finale of the regular season Nov. 27.
Western Michigan features a dynamic receiving duo in Daniel Braverman and Corey Davis, the first tandem in the nation to go over 1,100 receiving yards in the same season since 2012. The pair combined for 23 touchdowns and helped lead a Broncos’ offensive attack that ranks second in the nation in time of possession (34.5 minutes per game). Junior quarterback Zach Terrell threw for 3,225 yards, third in the MAC, with 27 touchdowns against eight interceptions, five of which occurred in the first two games of the season.
The Blue Raiders’ defense struggled early on but was pivotal in slamming the door on opponents down the stretch, limiting their last two foes to a combined 14 points. Linebacker T.T. Barber (11.5 tackles for a loss and four sacks) and safety Kevin Byard (four interceptions in 11 games) were both all-conference selections for a unit that tied for second in the league in picks with 16. Offensively, the run game left something to be desired, averaging 3.7 yards per carry and failing to get a single player over 500 yards on the ground.
TV: Noon ET, ESPN.
Western Michigan opened as 3.5-point favorites before getting bet to -3. Shortly after the line jumped two whole points back in the Broncos favor to -5 and got as high as -5.5, before settling back at -5. The total has been consistently bet up since opening at 62.5 and now sits at 65.
Middle Tennessee – LB A. Stewart (questionable Thursday, undisclosed), DE J. Jones (questionable Thursday, undisclosed), LB M. Harges (questionable Thursday, undisclosed), TE T. Barron (questionable Thursday, undisclosed), CB J. Cutrer (questionable Thursday, undisclosed), RB J. Bryson (doubtful Thursday, shoulder), OL D. Johnson (out Thursday, undisclosed).
Western Michigan – N/A.
It should be a beautiful day for football in the Bahamas with temperaures in the low 80’s and a 10-12 mile per hour wind blowing from east to west.
ABOUT MIDDLE TENNESSEE (7-5, 8-4 ATS, 4-8 O/U): Stockstill is the son of head coach Rick Stockstill, who has guided the program to five bowl games since taking over in 2006 but hasn’t won one since the New Orleans Bowl in 2009. With his son in the fold and another freshman – wide receiver Richie James – as the other offensive star, the future is bright. James is one of three wideouts in FBS play to record 100 catches and one of 14 to reach the 1,200-yard mark.
ABOUT WESTERN MICHIGAN (7-5, 7-5 ATS, 6-5-1 O/U): Head coach P.J. Fleck’s name often comes up in discussions of coaching vacancies, and he will get a chance on national television to show off the progress he has made at Western Michigan. “This was kind of the year of the ‘nevers,'” Fleck recently told the Detroit Free Press. “We’ve never been to back-to-back bowl games. We’re doing that. We never beat a Top 25 team. We’ve done that. We’ve never had back-to-back-to-back No. 1 (MAC) recruiting classes three years in a row. We’re doing that. But now, it’s a chance to have our first bowl win in the history of the program.” Terrell threw for three touchdowns – all of them to Davis – in last year’s loss to Air Force in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl.
* Middle Tennessee is 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall.
* Western Michigan is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in December.
* Under is 5-0 in Middle Tennessee’s last 5 games overall.
* Over is 4-1-1 in Western Michigan’s last 6 non-conference games.
The public is siding with the Broncos in this matchup with 65 percent of wagers on Western Michigan. As for the total, 55 percent of wagers are on the over.
PREDICTION: Western Michigan 45, Middle Tennessee 40December 23, 2015 at 1:41 pm #21638
‘Christmas Eve’ College Football Bowl Games Betting Preview
San Diego State Aztecs vs. Cincinnati Bearcats (+3, 56.5)
Game to be played at Aloha Stadium, Honolulu, Hawaii
Mountain West Conference champion San Diego State will make its second trip to Hawaii in less than three months when its faces Cincinnati on Christmas Eve in the Hawai’i Bowl. The contest will be played at Hawaiian Airlines Field at Aloha Stadium, which came under scrutiny last week when the U.S. women’s national team cancelled its soccer match with Trinidad and Tobago, claiming poor field conditions and tweeting out photos of seams in the artificial turf coming apart, mainly on the sideline area. “We didn’t have any problems when we played on it,” Aztecs coach Rocky Long told the San Diego Union-Tribune of his team’s 28-14 victory over the Rainbow Warriors on Oct. 10. “I don’t think it was a concern when we were there.”
San Diego State rolls into the game with the momentum of a nine-game winning streak, the third-longest active streak in the nation behind Clemson (16) and Alabama (10). That includes a perfect 8-0 mark in the Mountain West regular season and a 27-24 victory over Air Force in the 2015 Sports Authority MW Championship game at Qualcomm Stadium on Dec. 5. It was the 20th conference title in school history and second in the Mountain West era.
Cincinnati was a big preseason media favorite to win both the American Athletic Conference East Division and inaugural league title game. However, the Bearcats finished third in the East behind Temple and USF, which handed Cincinnati its worst loss of the season, 65-27, on Nov. 20. “(The Hawai’i Bowl is) one of the best bowls going,” Bearcats coach Tommy Tuberville said. “I’ve coached in a lot of them, and unless you’re playing for the national championship, what better place to spend the holidays than Hawaii?”
TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN.
Since opening as 2-point favorites, Cincinnati has seen no love as the line has not only jumped the fence, but gone all the way to San Diego State -3. The total has been bet down slightly since opening at 57, and is down to 56.5.
San Diego State – QB M. Smith (questionable Thursday, knee).
Cincinnati – WR J. Holton (questionable Thursday, hamstring), QB G. Kiel (out Thursday, personal).
It could be messy in Honolulu, with a 51 percent chance of rain showers and a 13-15 mile per hour wind gusting across the field from east to west. Temperatures will be high 70’s at gametime.
ABOUT SAN DIEGO STATE (10-3, 7-5-1 ATS, 6-7 O/U): The big question for the Aztecs is whether starting quarterback Maxwell Smith, who passed for 1,529 yards and 13 touchdowns while throwing just two interceptions, will be able to make it back to play in the bowl game after tearing his left ACL in the regular season finale against Nevada. “I hope he gets ready,” Long told Union-Tribune. “I’d love to see him start the game.” If not, redshirt freshman Christian Chapman, who completed 9-of-14 passes for 203 yards and a touchdown in the championship game, will make his second college start and the Aztecs, who set a school-single season record with 3,061 rushing yards, will lean even more heavily on Donnel Pumphrey, the Mountain West’s Offensive Player of the Year who has rushed for 1,554 yards and 16 TDs.
ABOUT CINCINNATI (7-5, 6-6 ATS, 6-6 O/U): The Bearcats bounced back from the ugly loss at USF to edge East Carolina, 19-16, on Andrew Gantz’s 42-yard field goal on the final play of the game in their regular-season finale. Junior quarterback Gunner Kiel, who began his career at Notre Dame, has completed 206-of-316 passes for 2,777 yards with 19 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, with senior wide receiver Shaq Washington, who set a school single-season receptions mark with 88 catches for 971 yards and six touchdowns, his top target. Senior Hosey Williams (727 yards, 4 TDs) and sophomore Mike Boone (717 yards, 8 TDs) both topped the 700-yard rushing mark while junior linebacker Eric Wilson (103 tackles) leads a defense that ranked just 84th nationally and allowed 190.8 yards per game on the ground.
* San Diego State is 0-7 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games.
* Cincinnati is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games.
* Under is 7-2 in San Diego State’s last 9 non-conference games.
* Over is 4-1 in Cincinnati’s last 5 Bowl games.
The action is fairly split in this bowl game according to the Covers Consensus, with 56 percent of wagers on San Diego State. As for the total, 58 percent of wagers are on the total.
PREDICTION: San Diego State 34, Cincinnati 21December 23, 2015 at 1:42 pm #21639
SMART SPORTS INVESTMENTS
Risked 2 units to win 1.9
Western Michigan -4.5 -105 vs Middle Tennessee
Risked 4 units to win 3.2
San Diego State -125 vs Cincinnati UDecember 23, 2015 at 1:43 pm #21640
$500 – Western Michigan -3December 23, 2015 at 1:43 pm #21641
Big Move Consensus
Western Michigan -3
$400.December 23, 2015 at 1:44 pm #21642
San Diego Aztecs 31-23December 23, 2015 at 8:58 pm #21740
Robinson Stadium, Nassau, Bahamas
Mid-Tenn St. v. W. Michigan (-3/63) Noon ET ESPN
Mid-Tenn St. finished on a solid 4-0 SU ATS run to get this Bowl bid with a 7-5 SU record. A closer inspection shows the last 3 of those wins to be against towel-tossers, Florida Atlantic, N. Texas and UTSA. Against the cream of the CUSA crop, Mid-Tenn lost by 30 at Western and 29 at LA Tech. Were they fortunate they did not play S. Mississippi! They were led down the stretch by QB Stockstill, who completed 70% of his passes in the last half of the season with a 27/8 ratio. He is ably abetted by WRs James and Battles. Western Michigan counters with the momentum of a (35-30) season-ending win at Toledo that knocked the Rockets out of the Title Game. This team was good enough to cover against Michigan St. and Ohio St. in September but bad enough to lose key November division encounters on consecutive weeks to Bowling Green and NIU, knocking them out of Title contention. QB Terrell is the straw that stirs the drink, backed by a trio of runners in Bogan, Franklin and Bellamy. Must feel they are a bit better of a team that can get this victory only if they can focus following their season-ending upset.
Aloha Stadium, Honolulu, Hawaii
Cincinnati (-1 ½ /57) v. San Diego St. 8:00 ET ESPN
Signal caller issues abound in this game with SD State QB Maxwell Smith (knee) out for the season, while Cincinnati QB Kiel is listed as questionable at this writing due to “personal” reasons. Despite huge offensive potential, which saw the Bearcats average 36/559 on offense, it was their defensive ineptitude against quality teams that makes questions abound. Against the quality teams in the AAC, the Bearcats went 0-4 SU vs. Memphis, Houston, USF and Temple, allowing a whopping 44 PPG. They will be facing a San Diego St. team who brings the momentum of a 9-0 SU winning streak into this contest. Fundamentals speak loudly in favor of the Aztecs. Their 67% run/pass balance puts the onus on the RB tandem of Pumfrey and Price. Replacement QB Chapman should be decent now that he has 2 games under his belt, including the Title Game victory (27-24) on his home field against Air Force. Bearcats’ highly potent offense could well struggle against the Rocky Long 3-3-5 defense which allows just 18/288. Aztecs’ fundamental excellence was confirmed with a (+19) net TO margin (best in the land). Topping it all off is the fact they played in Hawaii this season, recording a confidence-building (28-14) victory against the Rainbow Warriors on October 10th.December 23, 2015 at 9:08 pm #21743
Middle Tennessee won last four games after 3-5 start to get here; they’re 1-3 in bowl games, with only win in ’09; all three losses were by 14 points. Blue Raiders scored 33.5 ppg in last four games, playing lower end of conference in that stretch. Western Michigan is 0-6 all-time in bowl games, allowing 35 ppg in last five; Broncos are 2-3 as a favorite this year- they gave up 242 rushing ypg in their last three games. C-USA non-conference underdogs are 14-18 vs spread; MAC favorites are 5-5.
San Diego State lost three of its last four bowls; two of those were at home in Poinsettia Bowl. Aztecs are Mountain West champs, winning last nine games after a 1-3 start, including a home loss to South Alabama. Cincinnati allowed 33+ points in 7 of 12 games- they’re 5-0 when allowing less than 33. Bearcats allowed 222.8 rushing ypg in last five games. AAC teams are 19-15 vs spread out of conference; MW teams are 15-20. Favorites covered this bowl three of last four years; MW teams lost all four games, with average total 47.8.December 23, 2015 at 10:39 pm #21749
*10 BAHAMAS BOWL ANNIHILATOR (73% RUN!)
*10 HAWAII BOWL *BEST BET* (73% CFB RUN!)
San Diego St.December 24, 2015 at 9:55 am #21772
‘BOWL GAME OF YEAR’
SAN DIEGO ST.December 24, 2015 at 9:56 am #21774
Right Angle Sports – RAS
 Western Michigan -4December 24, 2015 at 9:57 am #21775
Western MichiganDecember 24, 2015 at 10:04 am #21776
Las Vegas Sports Syndicate
12:00 et – M Tennessee St. – Western Michigan
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