- January 8, 2016 at 10:48 am #24619
CFP National Championship Game betting preview
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Clemson Tigers (+6.5, 50.5)
Game to be played at University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
Second-ranked Alabama is looking for its fourth national title in the past seven seasons when it faces top-ranked Clemson in the College Football Playoff national championship game at Glendale, Ariz. on Monday. The Crimson Tide reached the title game with a resounding 38-0 victory over Michigan State in the semifinals for their 11th straight victory. The Tigers have won 17 consecutive games dating back to last season and throttled Oklahoma in the second half of their semifinal en route to a 37-17 victory.
Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry of Alabama has rushed for an SEC-record 2,061 yards to go with a conference-tying 25 rushing touchdowns while cementing himself as one of the top running backs in school and SEC history. Clemson sophomore quarterback Deshaun Watson finished third in the Heisman Trophy balloting and his multidimensional skills – 3,699 passing yards and 31 touchdowns, 1,032 rushing yards and 12 scores – concern Crimson Tide coach Nick Saban. “Really is probably as fine a dual-threat quarterback as we’ve played against for a long, long time and certainly does an outstanding job of executing their offense, and there’s no question about the fact that he’s an outstanding leader as well, because you can see the way the players sort of rally around him,” Saban told reporters.
The status of Clemson junior defensive end Shaq Lawson remains unclear after he suffered a sprained MCL in his left knee during the semifinal victory over Oklahoma. Tigers coach Dabo Swinney has stated that he is hopeful that Lawson (team-best 23.5 tackles for losses, including 10.5 sacks) would be able to play, but the NFL-bound Lawson didn’t sound as sure when he met with reporters Tuesday. “I probably wouldn’t be able to say I can play right now,” Lawson said. “I’ve just got to get comfortable with it. I’m not comfortable with it right now.”
TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.
Alabama opened the national championship game favored by a converted touchdown. They have then bounced back and forth between -6.5 and -7 since. They are currently 6.5-pooint favorites. The total has been bet down three points since opening at 53.5 and now sits at 50.5.
Alabama – DB T. Brown (out Monday, suspension).
Clemson – S. Lawson (probable Monday, knee), WR D. Cain (out Monday, suspension), PK A. Lakip (out Monday, suspension), TE J. McCullough (out Monday, suspension).
WEATHER REPORT: Indoors.
WHAT BOOKS SAY:
“Sharps and squares are on both sides of spread, but there has been a tad bit more smart money on the underdog than the favorite. A1serviceplays.com Currently, we have about 60 percent of the wagers on Alabama but the money handle is almost dead even. I don’t anticipate us moving off the -7 as kickoff approaches.The under has been hit extremely hard by the steam as we’re down a full three points from the open of 53. This might creep back up to 51 as the public gets more involved on Monday, but it won’t move past that.” – Scott Cooley of BookMaker.
ABOUT ALABAMA (13-1, 8-6 ATS, 5-9 O/U):
Henry topped 100 yards nine times – and 200 on four occasions – and senior Kenyan Drake (407 yards) is back from a broken arm to provide a nice duo to help take pressure off senior quarterback Jake Coker (2,775 yards, 19 touchdowns). Freshman receiver Calvin Ridley pumped life into the passing game with 83 receptions with 1,031 yards and defensive stalwarts such as junior strong safety Eddie Jackson (team-high five interceptions, two returned for touchdowns), senior middle linebacker Reggie Ragland (team-best 97 tackles) and junior defensive Jonathan Allen (team-high 12 sacks) were among the players that pushed for a higher standard when the Crimson Tide were staggering in September. “I think the early loss to Ole Miss probably did a lot to jilt the attitude of this team in helping them do the things they needed to do, to be what they could be and follow and do the things that were necessary for them to be a good football team,” Saban said.
ABOUT CLEMSON (14-0, 7-7 ATS, 5-9 O/U):
Swinney grew up in Alabama and played and coached for the Crimson Tide before finding his way to Clemson and finds humor in the irony that he must beat his beloved alma mater to win his first national crown as a head coach. “You go on with your life, and I’ve been at Clemson 13 years, and I’ve been trying to get back to the National Championship as a coach for 20-plus years now,” Swinney said on a teleconference call. “You know, to have the opportunity to be in my first national championship game as a coach, and it comes against Alabama, I just have to smile at God on that one.” Sophomore running back Wayne Gallman set a school-rushing mark with 1,482 yards to go with 12 touchdowns while the Lawson-led defense also features standouts in senior middle linebacker B.J. Goodson (team-best 98 tackles), junior cornerback Cordrea Tankersley (team-leading five interceptions) and junior defensive end Kevin Dodd (nine sacks).
* Alabama is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. ACC.
* Clemson is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.
* Over is 8-2 in Alabama’s last 10 bowl games.
* Under is 10-3 in Tigers last 13 vs. a team with a winning record.
The public is giving the slight edge to the dog here, with 56 percent of wagers on Clemson. As for the total, 62 percent of wagers are on the over.
PREDICTION: Clemson 30, Alabama 27January 8, 2016 at 10:48 am #24620
College Football Betting Trends – Mon – Jan, 11
Alabama at Clemson, 8:30 ET
Alabama: 9-1 ATS on road after 5 games where they committed 1 or less turnovers
Clemson: 0-6 ATS after gaining 300 or more rushing yards in 2 straight gamesJanuary 8, 2016 at 10:50 am #24621
Bettors buy back Clemson, sharp money moves CFP title game total
By Jason Logan
It didn’t take long for sportsbooks to realize that they had greatly underestimated the Alabama Crimson Tide in their College Football Playoff odds. In fact, it took less than 60 minutes of football for books to figure out Alabama was the team to beat, as the Tide demolished Michigan State in the Cotton Bowl on New Year’s Eve.
“About two weeks or so before the playoff games, we opened odds on all the potential matchups and had Alabama -4 versus Clemson. It drew zero handle – no one bet it,” Jason Simbal, vice president of risk management for CG Technology in Las Vegas. “But with Alabama up 31-0 in the third quarter versus Michigan State, we opened Alabama -4.5 (versus Clemson). They (bettors) laid that -4.5, laid -6, laid -6.5 and that’s how we ended up at -7.”
A similar story played out online at Sportsbook, which opened the Crimson Tide as more conservative 6-point favorites. But after thrashing the Spartans in the semifinal, the betting public was in love with Nick Saban’s program and pushed their line toward a touchdown.
“Honestly, we thought using -6 was a bit of an inflated number but it wasn’t inflated enough as money poured in on Alabama,” Peter Childs, supervisor of risk management for Sportsbook. “Looking back, it makes sense as Bama absolutely crushed Michigan State and that crushing was literally happening as we opened the line. As money came in on Alabama, we quickly went to -6.5 and then to -7.”
Once books adjusted the National Championship spread to a touchdown, money started to show up on the underdog from the ACC. According to multiple sportsbooks, Clemson money has started to come in as of midweek and some shops have trimmed half a point off the spread, dealing Alabama -6.5.
According to William Hill sportsbooks in Nevada, 61 percent of the betting handle for the January 11 title game is riding on the Crimson Tide with 71 percent of wagers being placed on the SEC power. However, one trend showing up at sportsbooks is moneyline bets being placed on the Tigers, with bettors passing on the points and taking Clemson to win outright at +220.
The total for the National Championship Game has also moved significantly at some sportsbooks, opening as high as 53.5 and drawing one-sided sharp action on the Under since the Alabama-Clemson matchup was made.
“They’ve been betting the Under hard, which makes sense because that (opening) total was too high,” Scott Kaminsky, sportsbook director at The Greek “We opened 53 and dropped to 50.5. I would have made the total much lower.”
But like most high-profile games, while the sharp money may side with the Under, the betting public is hoping for an exciting high-scoring game, and gravitates toward the Over. This number may not be done moving, with plenty of time for the public to make its opinion felt between Wednesday and Monday night’s kickoff.
“Being a championship game and knowing the betting public is going to get involved in this game in a big way, we opened our total high assuming sharps would bet it Under and the public would bet it Over,” says Childs, who opened the total at 53 points. “For now, we’re happy with our action and it’s somewhat balanced with just over 60 percent on the Over. But I do see us having to at least get back to 52 as we get closer to game time.”
The total may not be the only odds looking different come Monday night. The books that are dealing Alabama -6.5 have a feeling they will get back to a touchdown spread with the public pounding the Crimson Tide, after such a dominant display in the Cotton Bowl and the prestige of the SEC – compared to the lack of depth in the ACC.
“You have to think the game will close seven,” says Kaminsky. “Based on Alabama’s performance against MSU, and that I just think the line should be -7. Clemson is good and all, but I think the Alabama defense is the big difference. I think they’ll be able to stop that Clemson offense. Defense is the key when it comes to winning championships and this defense is exceptional.”
Alabama has covered in its last four meetings with ACC schools and is 5-2 ATS in its last seven bowl games. Clemson has covered in four straight postseason games and is 5-2 ATS in its last seven non-conference contests.January 8, 2016 at 10:53 am #24622
Alabama’s Henry tabbed with 145.5 rushing yards in championship game prop board
Why limit yourself to a side or total bet when you can spice up the College Football Championship Game with some prop bets?
Check out what the Westgate LV Superbook is offering on their board:
FIRST SCORE OF THE GAME:
ANY OTHER +220
LONGEST TOUCHDOWN OF THE GAME:
(*IF NO TD IS SCORED, ALL BETS ARE REFUNDED)
OVER 49.5 -110
UNDER 49.5 -110
TOTAL COMPLETIONS BY: JAKE COKER* (ALABAMA)
OVER 18.5 -110
UNDER 18.5 -110
LONGEST COMPLETION BY: JAKE COKER* (ALABAMA)
**(If no Completions–Under is the winner)
OVER 45.5 -110
UNDER 45.5 -110
TOTAL TOUCHDOWN PASSES BY: JAKE COKER* (ALABAMA)
OVER 1.5 -120
UNDER 1.5 EVEN
TOTAL RUSHING YARDS BY: DERRICK HENRY* (ALABAMA)
OVER 145.5 -110
UNDER 145.5 -110
LONGEST RUSH BY: DERRICK HENRY* (ALABAMA)
**(If no Rushing Attempt–Under is the winner)
OVER 22.5 -110
UNDER 22.5 -110
TOTAL RECEIVING YARDS BY: CALVIN RIDLEY* (ALABAMA)
OVER 85.5 -110
UNDER 85.5 -110
WILL CALVIN RIDLEY* (ALABAMA) SCORE A TOUCHDOWN?
TOTAL COMPLETIONS BY: DESHAUN WATSON* (CLEMSON)
OVER 22.5 -110
UNDER 22.5 -110
LONGEST COMPLETION BY: DESHAUN WATSON* (CLEMSON)
**(If no Completions–Under is the winner)
OVER 40.5 -110
UNDER 40.5 -110
TOTAL TOUCHDOWN PASSES BY: DESHAUN WATSON* (CLEMSON)
OVER 1.5 -110
UNDER 1.5 -110
TOTAL RUSHING YARDS BY: DESHAUN WATSON* (CLEMSON)
OVER 47.5 -110
UNDER 47.5 -110
TOTAL RUSHING YARDS BY: WAYNE GALLMAN*(CLEMSON)
OVER 60.5 -110
UNDER 60.5 -110
TOTAL RECEIVING YARDS BY: ARTAVIS SCOTT* (CLEMSON)
OVER 60.5 -110
UNDER 60.5 -110
WILL ARTAVIS SCOTT* (CLEMSON) SCORE A TOUCHDOWN?
TOTAL RECEIVING YARDS BY: HUNTER RENFROW* (CLEMSON)
OVER 38.5 -110
UNDER 38.5 -110
WILL THERE BE A DEFENSIVE OR SPECIAL TEAMS TOUCHDOWN?
TOTAL POINTS BY: ALABAMA
OVER 28.5 -110
UNDER 28.5 -110
TOTAL POINTS BY: CLEMSON
OVER 22.0 -110
UNDER 22.0 -110January 8, 2016 at 10:56 am #24624
StatFox Super Situations™ – FoxSheets
CFB | ALABAMA at CLEMSON
Play Under – Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 in a game involving two top-level teams (>= 80%), in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences
46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
0-2 this year. ( 0.0% | -2.2 units )
CFB | ALABAMA at CLEMSON
Play Over – All teams where the first half total is 25 to 28 after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game, with an experienced QB vs. opponent with inexperienced QB
101-54 over the last 5 seasons. ( 65.2% | 41.6 units )
11-13 this year. ( 45.8% | -3.3 units )January 8, 2016 at 10:58 am #24625
AGAINST THE SPREAD PICKS (Based on Games Played 50,000 times)
Rot Time (ET) Pick Opp Line Margin Pick% $
152 8:30 PM CLEM vs ALA 7 -6.3 51.1% $0
STRAIGHT-UP PICKS (Based on Games Played 50,000 times)
Rot Time (ET) Favorite Opp Points For Points Against Win%
151 8:30 PM ALA vs CLEM 26.5 20.2 71.1%
OVER/UNDER PICKS (Based on Games Played 50,000 times)
Home Rot Time (ET) Matchup Line Total Points Pick Pick% $
152 8:30 PM ALA vs. CLEM 52.5 46.7 Under 58.2% $61January 8, 2016 at 10:59 am #24626
20* Clemson +7January 8, 2016 at 1:02 pm #24656
DUNKEL’S HIGHLIGHTED GAME
Alabama vs. Clemson – Monday January 11, 2016
The Crimson Tide look to follow up their 38-0 win over Michigan State in the semifinal and come into the FBS Championship game with a 6-1 ATS record in their last 7 games after holding a team to less than 20 points in the previous game. Alabama is the pick (-7) according to Dunkel, which has the Crimson Tide favored by 10.
Dunkel Pick: Alabama (-7).January 8, 2016 at 7:01 pm #24714
VEGAS SPORTS INFORMER
4 Unit Play. #151 Take Clemson +7
(8:25p.m., Monday, Jan 11 ESPN – National Championship Game)January 8, 2016 at 8:31 pm #24747
NEWSLETTER College Football Prediction From Strike Point Sports
Take #151 Alabama (-6.5) over Clemson (8:30 p.m., Monday, Jan. 11)
This line has gone down since it came out at 7-7.5. Clemson has already surprised a lot of people by beating Oklahoma as the were a 3.5-point dog in that game as well. We loved Clemson in the semi-finals, but not here. Alabama is absolutely rolling at the current time, and they will be just too much for Clemson on both sides of the football. I do not think that the Tide handles Clemson the way they did Michigan State, but they will win this game by double-figures. After last year’s poor performance in the semi-finals, Nick Saban won’t let his team falter again. Look for Alabama to establish their ground game and to control the clock versus this high-powered Clemson offense. The Tide will want to keep Watson and company off the field as much as they can. Alabama is 7-1 ATS in their last eight games versus teams with winning records and 11-5 ATS in their last 16 neutral-site games. Lay the points in this one as Alabama makes up for last year with a double-digit win in this years National Championship Game.January 8, 2016 at 9:05 pm #24755
‘BAMA VS. CLEMSON’
Alabama -6.5 (3*)January 9, 2016 at 9:37 am #24818
Clemson and Alabama meet in Monday title game
By Brian Graham
ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (13-1) vs. CLEMSON TIGERS (14-0)
‘CFP National Championship Game’
Univ. of Phoenix Stadium – Glendale, AZ
Kickoff: Monday, 8:30 p.m. ET
Line: Alabama -6.5, Total: 51
The top two teams in the country will play for the national championship on Monday night in Arizona when No. 2 Alabama collides with unbeaten No.1 Clemson.
Both schools are sizzling hot, as the Crimson Tide (13-1 SU, 8-6 ATS) have ripped off 11 straight wins by an average of 23.2 PPG, while the Tigers (14-0 SU, 7-6-1 ATS) have beaten their past nine opponents by 18.1 PPG. Both teams had little problems in the national semifinals, as Alabama held a 440-239 total yards advantage in a 38-0 pounding of Michigan State, while Clemson rolled up 530 total yards in an easy 37-17 win over Oklahoma. The last time the Tigers won in this series was 1905, as the Crimson Tide have prevailed in each of the past 12 meetings, including seven by shutout. However, the only matchup to take place in the past 40 years occurred on Aug. 30, 2008 when Alabama beat Clemson 34-10. There are plenty of reasons for bettors to place a wager on either team Monday, as the Crimson Tide are 26-12 under head coach Nick Saban after allowing less than 750 total yards in a three-game stretch, and excellent offensive teams (34+ PPG) facing good defensive teams (16 to 21 PPG allowed) after a win by 35+ points after 7+ games are a hefty 39-12 ATS (77%) in the past 10 seasons. However, the Tigers are 30-14 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992, and are a perfect 6-0 ATS away from home under head coach Dabo Swinney when facing excellent teams outscoring their opponents by at least 17 PPG. With Clemson star DL Shaq Lawson (knee) upgraded to probable for this contest, the only absences are all suspension related. Alabama DB Tony Brown is out after violating team rules, while the Tigers trio of WR Deon Cain, TE Jay Jay McCullough and K Ammon Lakip all remain suspended after failing drug tests before the semifinals.
Alabama has nearly identical offensive numbers both overall (34.4 PPG, 424 total YPG) and away from home (34.4 PPG, 428 total YPG), where the team is a perfect 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS. This is a run-heavy offense with 59% of the plays coming on the ground, leading to 204 YPG on 4.8 YPC. The play selection has also resulted in a whopping 33:48 average time of possession this season. The Tide have also been strong through their air with 219 passing YPG on 7.3 YPA. Heisman Trophy-winning RB Derrick Henry is the main engine of this offense with an eye-popping 2,061 rushing yards on 5.7 YPC and 25 touchdowns. In his past seven games versus FBS opponents (Michigan State and six SEC teams), Henry has carried the football 230 times (33 per game) for 1,328 yards (190 YPG) on 5.8 YPC with 13 touchdowns. Senior QB Jake Coker (67% completions, 2,775 pass yds, 7.5 YPA, 19 TD, 8 INT) isn’t flashy, but he has thrown just two interceptions in his past eight games combined. In his past four games, Coker has connected on 71-of-95 throws (75%) for 206 YPG (8.7 YPA), 7 TD and 0 INT, and is coming off a season-high 286 passing yards in the win over Michigan State. WR Calvin Ridley caught eight of those passes for 138 yards and two touchdowns, giving him 1,031 receiving yards and 7 TD in his freshman season. Alabama’s defense continues to stifle opponents with allowing a paltry 13.4 PPG on 257 total YPG this season, including 9.3 PPG and 226 total YPG over the past three games. While opposing rushers gain only 71 YPG on 2.3 YPC, opposing quarterbacks don’t fare much better with 186 YPG on a mere 5.8 YPA and 49% completion rate. The Crimson Tide have not had a negative turnover margin in any of their past eight games where they have 14 takeaways and only five giveaways. This could be problematic for a Tigers offense that has committed multiple turnovers in eight games this season.
Clemson’s offense has been rolling all year with 38.4 PPG on 512 total YPG, and those numbers jump to 41.4 PPG on 544 total YPG away from home. The team keeps the ball on the ground 58% of the time this season, which leads to a hefty 228 rushing YPG on 5.0 YPC. In the two December postseason games (ACC Championship vs. North Carolina and national semifinals vs. Oklahoma), the Tigers have topped 310 rushing yards both times, totaling 631 yards on 114 carries (5.5 YPC). Despite the rushing prowess, the air attack has also produced at least 215 yards in seven straight games, which runs its season averages to 284 passing YPG on 8.3 YPA. Sophomore QB Deshaun Watson is having a sensational year with 3,699 passing yards (8.3 YPA), 31 TD and 12 INT. Four different Clemson receivers have at least 34 catches and five touchdown grabs, led by sophomore WR Artavis Scott (89 rec, 868 yds, 5 TD), who has racked up a hefty 49 receptions over the past seven games. Watson has also run for 1,032 yards (5.5 YPC) and 12 TD this year, which includes five 100-yard efforts in the past six contests. The team’s top ground gainer is RB Wayne Gallman, who has picked up 1,482 rushing yards (5.5 YPC) and 12 touchdowns this year. Gallman has topped the 100-yard mark in nine of his past 11 games, including 187 yards in the ACC title game and 150 yards versus Oklahoma. The Tigers defense often gets overshadowed by the explosive offense, but this unit has been solid all season in holding opponents to 20.0 PPG on 302 total YPG. The run-stop unit limits teams to a meager 125 YPG on 3.6 YPC while opposing quarterbacks are throwing for only 177 YPG on 6.0 YPA and 48% completions. The Clemson defense has also generated a respectable 25 turnovers this season, but is facing an Alabama offense with only one turnover in the past four games combined.January 9, 2016 at 11:39 am #24831
Alabama -6 1/2 vs Clemson
Alabama vs Clemson – UNDER 50 1/2January 9, 2016 at 1:35 pm #24888
1 unit – Alabama -7January 9, 2016 at 5:35 pm #24997
2-units Alabama -6.5
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