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♦NCAA "National Championship Game! ♦ Monday 1/11/16

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  • #25294
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    VinnyTheGambler

    $500
    CLEMSON – ALABAMA – OVER 50 -110

    #25295
    admin
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    IBN

    *TEASER* $600
    ALABAMA +1/2 :: BAMA/CLEMSON – OVER 43
    (7PT TEASER ‘ TIES REDUCE)

    #25298
    admin
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    Cajun Sports Wire

    5* Alabama -6.5

    #25299
    admin
    Keymaster

    Sharps betting Clemson, books dreading Under in CFP National Championship
    By Jason Logan

    Sportsbooks, both online and in Las Vegas, were treated to a wake-up call bright and early from sharp bettors Monday morning. Before bookies could even finish their first cup of coffee, sharp money was taking the Clemson Tigers to cover the touchdown spread against the Alabama Crimson Tide, forcing the spread for the national title game down to 6.5 at some shops.

    “We took a pretty smart play on Clemson +7 this morning. Now that line is -6.5 Alabama” Jason Simbal, vice president of risk management for CG Technology in Las Vegas. “It was a good five-figures. We obviously still need Clemson, but less than we did before that bet came in.”

    At online market Sportsbook, Peter Childs, their supervisor of risk management, has been constantly juggling the vig on the national title game odds trying to stay at a touchdown spread. He too received a notable wager on the Tigers from a respected smart bettor this morning, forcing him to deal Clemson +7 (-120).

    “At this point, we’ve booked such great two way action at seven that we really don’t want to get off the number and again, we’re just adjusting the juice,” Childs. “But as we see more and more Clemson support from our sharper players as well as the public also starting to support the dog, we might have to eventually get to Alabama -6.5 points.”

    The North American markets aren’t the only places drawing money on the underdog. Talking with UK-based sportsbook Ladbrokes, where the college football championship is growing in popularity with bettors, there has been overwhelming support for the Tigers and the points.

    “We have taken around £3000 on the national championship game so far,” an oddsmaker for Ladbrokes. “With kickoff still around 11 hours away we would expect this to increase greatly. It is difficult to estimate exactly how much but a turnover figure of £25,000 would be a reasonable estimate. At this stage, Clemson have been supported both on the money line and the point spread.”

    When the odds opened for the National Championship, Alabama was as low as -4 but its dominant performance in the Cotton Bowl – a 38-0 thrashing of Michigan State – convinced early money to take the Crimson Tide and drove the spread as high as -7 before buyback showed up on Clemson midway through last week.

    “The National Championship action has been all over the place at our shop. Sharps and squares on both sides of spread, but there has been a tad bit more smart money on the underdog than the favorite,” says Scott Cooley of Bookmaker. “Currently, we have about 60 percent of the wagers on Alabama but the money handle is almost dead even. I don’t anticipate us moving off the -7 as kickoff approaches.”

    As for Monday’s total, the number opened as high as 53.5 and was immediately bet down as low as 50 points. Some took Over money at 50, which added the half-point hook to 50.5, which is where most shops are dealing the Over/Under as of Monday afternoon. While sportsbooks are expecting the betting public to side with Alabama closer to gametime, they don’t see the trend of “Favorite and Over” carrying over to the title game like it does in NFL primetime games.

    “Our worst-case scenario would be Alabama and Under,” Jeff Stoneback, sportsbook manager at the MGM Mirage in Las Vegas. “We have more on the Under than the Over on this. If Alabama did cover we would be rooting for the Over. Our best scenario is Clemson and Over right now.”

    Books aren’t dismissing Over money coming in late from public players but don’t expect to see the total climb higher than 51 points. The last five national title games have finished 1-4 Over/Under with an average of 49 points scored against an average total of almost 59 points. The lone Over was Alabama’s 42-14 win over Notre Dame in 2012-13.

    “We’re not in the greatest position especially if it lands 51 or 52, because we booked nothing but Under money at 53 and nothing but Over money at 50,” admits Childs. “So we’d get scooped and would be paying out both sides if it lands in between those two numbers.”

    Betting action on college football’s finale has increased over the past two years thanks to the playoff format. According to sportsbooks, the total handle on Monday’s matchup between Clemson and Alabama won’t be as big as the NFL Wild Card Weekend Saturday and Sunday, but come close and greatly outdraw other notable events like the NBA Finals or World Series.

    “It’s less than the NFL games because it’s on a Monday, and kind of a dead Monday with there not being a holiday or anything,” Simbal says, adding that with Las Vegas being a tourist town, sportsbook traffic dips significantly at the start of the week. “Basically, there aren’t as many people betting the game because there aren’t as many people around to bet it.”

    At the MGM Mirage, the weekend stirred up quite a bit of betting action on the title game, with many stopping in Las Vegas while en route to Arizona to take in the championship tilt in person. However, things are much slower Monday with people checking out and heading home.”

    “It’s pretty quiet right now but it was busy this weekend,” says Stoneback. “I was talking to one guy who said it was cheaper to fly into and stay in Las Vegas, then go to Arizona, than to fly right to Phoenix for the game. I even saw a big bus out front carrying a bunch of Alabama alumni.”

    Even in the UK, where another “football” is king and the NFL is still growing in popularity, college football is gaining ground in the betting markets – thanks in large part to the new postseason format. Ladbrokes says the two CFP semifinal games posted respectable betting turnarounds of £62,000 in pre-game markets and £21,000 for in-game wagering

    “As you can see, there is certainly a market for college football with the excellent coverage on BT/ESPN certainly helping,” says Ladbrokes’ oddsmaker. “The playoff format giving the end of the season more structure has certainly helped.”

    #25300
    admin
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    INDIAN COWBOY

    5-Unit Play. #152. Take Under 50.5 Alabama vs. Clemson
    (Monday @ 8:30pm est)
    We go with a 5-Unit Seleciton for the National Championship as these two teams hook up.
    Note that these defenses should get an incredible amount of press and as though the public will understand and quick to point out that both teams put up 30+ points in their last game and nearly 40 points in the playoff contest, these are teams with defenses that will carry the day here. Alabama’s defense has been incredible for a decade now essentially and with Kirby Smart Coaching his last game for the Tide, you can make sure that this team will be highly competent when it comes to their defensive prep as they were against Michigan State. Smart does not want the Georgia Job to be a crutch as to why this team did not do well for any reason and he has nearly over compensated with extra prep for his squad this time out. Alabama’s defense has been incredibly stout and will find great joy in competing against Watson as they have the #1 defense in America in points allowed and rushing yards allowed. This defense has given up just 40 points in their last 5 games. And, they face a Clemson team that has the 6th ranked defense overall but the more important question is how they step up against competent teams and big games such as giving up 0 points against Miami, 13 to Florida State and 17 to Oklahoma. Look for this to be a highly competitive contest that likely ends in Alabama winning 27-20. More importantly, it likely goes to the Under.

    #25301
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    MYSYSTEM PICKS

    Bama/Clemson – Under 50.5 (3u)

    Clemson +7 (2u)

    #25307
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    RL Sports

    Clemson +7, -120

    #25312
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    500wager

    Clemson +7

    #25313
    admin
    Keymaster

    M&M Handicapping

    4* Clemson +6.5

    #25315
    admin
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    NSA “The Legend”

    25* CFB Alabama -6.5

    20* CFB Alabama UNDER 51.5

    #25318
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    Miraclehandicapper

    Miracle play
    1/11/2016 7:00 PM EST (NCAAF) ALABAMA VS. CLEMSON
    SPREAD PICK:*ALABAMA -6 (-110)
    *RISK 1 UNITS

    #25319
    admin
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    Bill Hilton – Gameday

    3- Alabama -7

    #25320
    admin
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    Texas Sports Wire

    3* Under 50 1/2

    #25322
    admin
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    We Pick Sports

    Clemson +7 (-130)
    20*
    8:30 ET
    {Diamond Selection: Diamond of The Century}

    #25323
    admin
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    HARRY BONDI

    3 Star – Clemson Tigers +7

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