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NCAAF Week 4 – Previews, Articles, Info. Saturday Service Plays 9/26/15

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  • #5593
    admin
    Keymaster

    NEWSLETTER College Football Prediction From Strike Point Sports

    Take #363 LSU (-24) over Syracuse (Noon, Saturday, Sept. 26)
    We think the Orange are in big trouble this weekend. Syracuse has been looking solid since quarterback Terrell Hunt went down in their first game. Freshman quarterback Eric Dungey has sparked the team and the Orange faithful in to believing in this team. Dungey has made the Orange offense look viable. Something they have struggled with in years past. This is a terrible spot for Syracuse. With no Dungey, and this ridiculous kickoff time for their biggest game of the year, LSU is going to run all over the Orange. Leonard Fournette is going to have his way with the young Orange defense. LSU is making a run at an SEC title and they know they also have to take care of business in nonconference games. Look for LSU to control the clock on the road and to win this game by closer to 5 touchdowns than what the line suggests. Take the big road favorite in this one as LSU crushes the Orange fans hopes early en route to a 45-10 victory.

    #5594
    admin
    Keymaster

    JOE WIZ

    Free plays
    Saturday… Mid TN St. +7 over Illinois
    Saturday… Arkansas St. +10 over Toledo

    #5645
    admin
    Keymaster

    2015 College Football

    Top 13 games

    Because BYU is independent, their schedule is front-loaded with hardest games; this is their third tough road game in four weeks- they outgained UCLA 405-402 in 24-23 loss last week. Cougars are 9-3 in last 12 games as road underdog. Since ’11, Michigan is 15-12 as home faves; they won first two home games this year 35-7, 28-7, allowing total of 373 yards– they’re facing a rookie QB for third week in row.

    East Carolina (+9) won 28-21 at Virginia Tech LY, just second win for Pirates in last nine series games (dogs covered last three). Tech won last four visits here, holding ECU to total of 23 points in last three. Hokies had solid win at Purdue last week, just their second cover in last nine as road favorite. ECU got smoked at Navy last week, giving up 415 yards on ground; since 2008, they are 8-3-1 as home underdogs.

    West Virginia won eight of last nine games with Pitt; dogs covered three of last four meetings. WVa passed for 511 yards in LY’s 40-37 (+3) win at Maryland- they’re 6-12-1 as home favorite under Holgorson. Terps gave up 441 rushing yards in last two games; they’re 9-4 as underdogs on road last three years. Maryland lost last seven visits here, but covered three of last five.

    Duke (+3) won 31-25 at Georgia Tech LY, just second win in last 16 vs Georgia Tech, which won last five visits here (4-1 vs spread). Jackets are 7-3 vs spread in last ten series games- they ran for 300+ yards in five of last six vs Duke, are coming off loss at Notre Dame. Tech is 10-5-2 as a road favorite under Johnson. Duke is 9-7 as home dog since ’10; they got beat at home by Northwestern LW, despite outgaining them 327-271.

    Arkansas got upset in its last two games; Bielema lost his last 12 games that were decided by 7 or less points. Hogs lost last three games against Texas A&M, giving up 523+ TY in last four meetings (underdogs 3-1 vs spread). Aggies scored 46 ppg in winning first three games; over last ten years, they’re 3-10 vs spread in neutral field games, 13-14 as a favorite under Sumlin, 2-1 this year, with wins by 21-33-17 points.

    Florida won its last 10 games with Tennessee, covering six of last eight; underdogs covered last three. Vols lost last five visits here; they lost ugly 10-9 game to Florida LY (TY 233-232). Since ’11, Tennessee is 6-12 vs spread on road; line moved in their favor because Gators suspended its backup QB Harris for this game; he started opener. Florida struggled to beat East Carolina/Kentucky last two games, but they are 3-0 this year.

    Auburn switches QBs after 45-21 loss at LSU which followed OT win vs I-AA team; Tigers are 11-3 in last 14 games vs Mississippi State- the host won last four series games. MSU lost last three visits here by 4-7-25 points; they’re 2-4 vs spread in last six visits here. Bulldogs are 4-1 as road dog last couple years- they lost 21-19 to LSU week before Auburn lost at LSU. Tigers are 7-6 as home favorite under Malzahn.

    TCU rang up 785 yards in 82-27 (-23) win over Texas Tech LY; Horned Frogs ran for 305, passed for 480 yards. TCU is 2-3 in last five games vs Tech (favorites 3-2 vs spread); they gave up 330 PY on 17 completions in 56-37 win over SMU LW. Since ’11, TCU is 3-9 as road fave. Raiders are 10-4 as home underdogs in last decade; they upset Arkansas 35-24 a week ago, completing 27-31 passes for 315 yards. Interesting game.

    Oregon beat Utah 44-21/51-27 last two years; running for 269 yards LY in game where Utes were running for easy TD and 14-0 lead, before RB dropped ball before goal line while taunting and Ducks ran ball back for TD on same play. Oregon QB Adams (finger) sat out easy win last week would expect him to play here. Ducks are 8-7 as HF with Helfrich. Utes are 12-9 as road underdogs since ’08.

    Favorites covered last six Oklahoma State-Texas games, with home side losing all six games; Cowboys won last three visits here, all by 12+, but had only nine FDs in 28-7 home loss to Texas LY. Longhorns found a QB in Heard, but they’ve allowed 722 rushing yards in first three games, including 228 to Rice, so they need improvement there. Texas is 2-7 as home dog last 10+ years. OSU is 2-7 in last nine tries as road favorite.

    USC gave up 474 yards in home loss to Stanford last week; they’re 7-1 SU last two years in game following a loss. Trojans lost three of last four vs Arizona State, losing 62-41/43-22 in last two visits here. USC is 9-21 as road favorite since ’08, 2-9 since ’12. ASU is 7-5-1 as home underdog last decade, 1-2 under Graham; they’re -1 in turnovers thru three games after being +29 last two seasons.

    UCLA lost LB Jack for year; their defense is banged-up. Bruins won last three games vs Arizona, but lost four of last five visits here, in series that saw favorites cover five of last seven meetings. UCLA was outgained in LW’s 24-23 win over BYU; they’re 6-5 as road favorites under Mora Jr. Arizona is 4-0 as home underdog under RichRod; they gained 570 yards in 44-20 win at Nevada, by far toughest team they’ve played so far.

    Washington won last six games vs Cal, with underdogs covering five of the six; Golden Bears lost last four visits here, all by 8+ points. Cal won 45-44 at Texas LW, blowing 3-TD lead in 4th quarter; they’re 4-14 as a road favorite since ’07, 0-1 since ’12. Huskies are 1-3 as home dogs last 2+ years; they outgained a decent Utah State squad 442-254 in 31-17 win LW. Freshman QB Browning is completing 64% of his passes.

    Rest of card………

    — Army is 0-3 this year, with three losses by 2-5-3 points; they’re 2-18 vs spread in last 20 road games. Eastern Michigan has allowed 312 ypg in its 1-2 start– road team won all three games.

    — Long trip east for Nevada, which covered six of last seven road games. Buffalo is 6-4 vs spread in last 10 at home; coach Polian is son of former Bills’ GM Bill Polian.

    — Michigan State is 7-12 as non-conference home favorite since ’12; they open Big 14 play next week. Central Michigan covered six of last seven as road dog. MAC teams are 8-4 vs spread as non-league road dogs.

    — Since ’12, Nebraska is 13-9 as non-league HF’s; they lost two of first three games, both last-second losses. Southern Miss won 56-50 at Texas State LW; they’re 6-2 in last eight games as road dog.

    — Missouri won last three games with Kentucky, all by 10+, covering all three as faves of 8+ points. Tigers are 11-3 as road underdogs since ’12. Kentucky is 12-4 as home favorite since ’12.

    — Houston had last week off after winning at Louisville as 13-pt dogs; they’re 2-5 in last seven games as home favorite. Texas State scored 50 last week but lost; they’re 4-1 in last five games as road dog.

    — Navy ran for 415 yards in win over ECU LW; they play Air Force, Notre Dame next two weeks. UConn lost 9-6 at Missouri last week, a week after 22-17 win over Army- they’re 1-4 in last five as home dog.

    — San Diego State lost to I-A newbie South Alabama last week; Aztecs are 3-5 in last eight games as road underdog. Penn State is 12-7 as home favorite since 2012

    — Purdue is home dog to 1-2 Bowling Green squad that scored 119 pts in three games; Boilers are 3-9 in last 12 games as home underdog. Falcons are 12-5 as road favorites since 2007.

    — Rutgers as 14-point favorite over anyone is dicey; coach is suspended, team is a mess. Kansas allowed 96 points in losing first two games, one to I-AA team. Jayhawks are 8-19-1 as road dogs, since 2009.

    — Ohio State allowed total of 355 yards last two games; they struggled to beat No Illinois 23-20 LW, gaining 298 TY. Western Michigan is 8-3 as road underdogs under Fleck.

    — Toledo (-3) beat Arkansas State 63-44 LY in bowl game, running ball for 365 yards, but they lost 4/5 starters on OL; Rockets are 1-4-1 in last six games as HF. Since 2011, ASU is 8-5 as road underdog.

    — Since 2005, Indiana is 2-4-1 as road favorite; Hoosiers are 3-0 despite giving up 34.7 ppg (all at home) this year. Wake Forest is 19-9-1 as a home underdog, over last 10+ years.

    — Vanderbilt is 5-3 in last eight games with Ole Miss, winning last three visits here. Underdogs covered Vandy’s last eight visits to Oxford. Ole Miss beat Alabama last week, has Florida next– a sandwich game!!!

    — Since 2012, Iowa is 6-13 as home favorite, but they’re 3-0 SU so far this year, scoring 29 ppg vs I-A teams. North Texas failed to cover last seven tries as road underdog.

    — Illinois is 6-13 in last 19 games as home favorite; they lost 48-14 LW at North Carolina, disappointing game. Hard to tell much about Middle Tennessee; they played Alabama, a I-AA team and I-A newbie- scored 70 points each in latter two games.

    — Wyoming won three of last four games with New Mexico; Lobos lost last three visits here, by 7-21-24 points. Dogs covered four of last five in series played here. Cowboys are 6-12 vs spread in last 18 home games.

    — Louisiana Tech lost in OT at K-State LW; they beat FIU 23-7 (-5) in last meeting in ’13. Tech is 5-7 as home fave since 2012. FIU is 5-2 in last seven games as road underdog.

    — Baylor had LW off after hammering couple stiffs, opens Big X play next week; they’re 17-4 as home favorite since ’11. Third road game in a row for Rice, which outgained Texas 462-277 in 42-28 loss.

    — Minnesota is 9-4 in last 13 games as home favorite; they struggled to beat MAC doormat Kent 10-7 LW, after OT win at Colorado State and 23-17 loss to TCU. Ohio U is 2-10 in last dozen games as road dog.

    — Western Kentucky’s three games were decided by total of 8 points; they allowed 38 points in each of last two games. Miami OH lost 39-33 to rival Cincinnati LW; they’re 7-13 in last 20 games as road dog.

    — Syracuse is starting walk-on QB after #1-2 QB got hurt; since 2007, Orange is 9-17-1 as home dog. LSU just played SEC rivals Miss State, Auburn back/back; they’re 3-6 in last nine games as road favorite.

    — UMass allowed 1,016 TY in losing first two games; they’re 7-13 last 20 games as road underdog. Notre Dame won last two games by 8-7, has game at Clemson next week- they’re starting their backup QB.

    — NC State is just 2-10 as road favorite last 10+ years; they start ACC play next week, after drilling stiffs this month. South Alabama won LW at San Diego State; Jaguars are 2-5 as home underdogs.

    — Georgia Southern (-24) beat Idaho 47-24 LY, racking up 550 yards; Eagles are 2-2 as road favorites. Since ’10, Vandals are 4-10 as home dog.

    — Kent scored total of 10 points in pair of losses vs Big 14 teams; they are 3-4 as home dogs under Haynes. Marshall allowed 229 RY in loss at Ohio U of MAC. MAC non-league home underdogs are 6-1.

    — Alabama lost to Ole Miss LW, has Georgia next; they’re 3-11 against spread under Saban in game that followed a loss, 21-17 as home favorite last 5+ years. UL-Monroe is 12-10 in last 22 games as a road dog.

    — Florida Atlantic allowed 41.3 ppg in losing first three games; they are 1-3 as road favorite last 6+ years. Charlotte gave up 73 points last week in loss to Middle Tennessee- they got first I-A win at Georgia State.

    — UL-Lafayette (-6) won 35-30 at Akron in 2013; Cajuns are 9-11-1 as home favorites under Hudspeth. Zips is 8-5 as road dog under Bowden.

    — UTSA allowed 47 ppg in losing first three games; Roadrunners are 3-4 as home underdogs. Colorado State lost last two games by FG each and opens conference play next week- they’re 4-1 as road favorites.

    — Central Florida lost to I-AA team LW, South Carolina looked awful in drubbing at Georgia. Gamecocks won all three series games, but did not cover any of them. UCF is 4-2 in last six games as road underdog.

    — Sun Belt teams are 6-12 vs spread out of conference; C-USA dogs are 10-9 vs spread, 2-2 at home. Old Dominion is 1-2 as a home underdog.

    — Northern Illinois lost 20-13 at Ohio State LW; yardage was 290-193. Huskies are 12-4 as road dogs, since 2008. Boston College lost 14-0 at home to Florida State last week; they’re 7-2 in last nine as home fave.

    — Northwestern allowed total of 16 points in 3-0 start; they’re 1-8 as a home favorite last 2+ years. Big 14 home favorites are 7-12 vs spread. Ball State is 30-11-1 as road underdogs since 2006.

    — Hawai’i is 9-10 as road underdog under Chow. Wisconsin outscored last two foes 86-3 after loss to Alabama. Badgers open Big 14 play vs Iowa next; they’re 18-13 in last 31 games as a home favorite.

    — Underdogs are 3-1-1 vs spread in last five Fresno-San Jose games, as average total was 68. Bulldogs won six of last eight visits here. Fresno allowed 118 points in last two games, both vs Power-5 teams. . .

    • This reply was modified 7 years, 2 months ago by admin.
    #5648
    admin
    Keymaster

    Rain in store for Georgia Tech-Duke game
    Andrew Avery

    According to weather forecasts, there is a 95 percent chance of rain in Durham when the Duke Blue Devils host the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets Saturday afternoon.

    Temperatures in Durham will be in the high-60s with wind blowing across the field at around 11 miles per hour.

    Books opened Duke as a 9-point home dog, but that has since been adjusted to +7.

    #5649
    admin
    Keymaster

    LSU dominating non-conference opponents
    Andrew Avery

    The LSU Tigers bring a 49 game winning streak against non-conference opponents into Syracuse when the tangle with the Orange Saturday afternoon.

    The Tigers have gone 28-17 against the spread in those games, with four of those games not offering lines (2008 and 2005 vs. Appalachian State, 2003 vs. Western Illinois, 2002 vs. The Citadel).

    Books opened the Tigers as 24.5-point road faves versus the Orange, but that is now -24.

    #5650
    admin
    Keymaster

    Missouri on winning streak away from home
    Andrew Avery

    The Missouri Tigers are riding an 11-game road winnings streak into Kentucky Saturday afternoon. Mizzou is 10-1 against the spread in those 11 road games.

    The Tigers are currently 3-point road dogs for their visit to Commonwealth Stadium in Lexington and are 3-0 SU and ATS in their previous three meetings with the Wildcats.

    #5651
    admin
    Keymaster

    TCU riding second-longest winning streak
    Andrew Avery

    The TCU Horned Frogs have won 11 consecutive games heading into Saturday’s visit to the Texas Tech Red Raiders. That’s streak is second only to Ohio State’s 16-game winning streak.

    In those 11 games, the Horned Frogs have gone 7-4 against the spread, including a 1-2 mark this season.

    Books opened the Horned Frogs as 7.5-point road faves but that has since been adjusted to -6.5. TCU easily covered the 24.5-point spread with an 82-27 win last season.

    #5652
    admin
    Keymaster

    Baylor dominant SU and ATS in home games
    Andrew Avery

    There certainly is no place like home for the Baylor Bears, who bring a 17-game home winning streak into Saturday’s meeting with the Rice Owls. That mark represents the longest current streak in the FBS.

    In those 17 games, the Bears have been productive for their backers with a 14-2 record against the spread. One of those games, Week 2 versus Lamar, had no line.

    This time around, the Bears are pegged as 34.5-point home favorites after opening -32.5.

    #5653
    admin
    Keymaster

    Bullough out for first half versus Central Michigan
    Andrew Avery

    Michigan State Spartans linebacker Riley Bullough, who leads the team with 39 tackles and three sacks, is suspended for the first half versus Central Michigan due to his ejection for targeting in last week’s game versus Air Force.

    The Spartans have begun the season 3-0 straight up, but have not fared well for their backers as they are 0-3 against the spread. They are currently listed as 26-point home faves after opening -28.

    #5663
    admin
    Keymaster

    Where the action is: Betting the biggest games of college football Week 4
    By ANDREW AVERY

    It’s Week 4 of the college football schedule and conference and some tasty conference rivalries highlight Saturday’s board.

    We talk to John Lester, senior lines manager at BookMaker, about the action coming in on a couple of Saturday’s biggest games.

    Tennessee Volunteers at Florida Gators – Open: -2, Move: +1, Move: Pick

    The Gators head into this SEC matchup off a 14-9 win against Kentucky and are 3-0 straight up (2-1 against the spread) to begin the season. Perhaps more important is a current 10-game winning streak (6-3-1 ATS) the Gators own against the Volunteers.

    Speaking of those Vols, they’ve started the season scoring 138 points in their first three games – the most since notching 171 in 1914. Tennessee bounced back from a loss to Oklahoma with a 55-10 victory over Western Carolina last week.

    “Our clients absolutely love the Vols in this spot,” Lester. “We’ve book around 75 percent of our action on Tennessee, which manifested the line swing from Gators -2 to Tennessee -1. The under has been hit hard as well as we’ve moved from an open of 53.5 to 48. We’re hoping for a Florida win by at least a field goal.

    USC Trojans at Arizona State Sun Devils – Open: +5,5, Move: +6, Move: +5.5

    The Trojans look very, very strong on the offensive side ball with Cody Kessler under center, running backs Tre Madden, Justin Davis and Ronald Jones II along with wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster providing exciting football seemingly on every play.

    Trouble is, the defense is getting exposed.

    USC is coming off a tough 41-31 loss to Kevin Hogan and Stanford one week ago and face a stiff test against the Sun Devils, who have won three of the last four meetings (3-1 ATS) versus the Trojans.

    “The Trojans have to regroup after last weekend and I’m not so sure they will,” Lester says. “The USC fan base is always going to back its team at the window, which is why we have more square players on the visitor. Some smart money is backing the Sun Devils and more than 65 percent of our moneyline wagers are are the home dog. ASU feels undervalued here.”

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