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- October 21, 2015 at 10:04 am #9693
Tech Trends – Week 8
By Bruce Marshall
Matchup Skinny Edge
EASTERN MICHIGAN at NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Creighton 7-11-1 vs. line since arriving at EMU LY. NIU has covered 5 of last 6 TY though only 5-8 vs. line at DeKalb since 2013, 8-8 as DD chalk that span.
*Slight to NIU, based on team trends.
CENTRAL MICHIGAN at BALL STATE
CMU 6-0-1 vs. line TY and is 12-3-1 last 16 on board. Lembo, however, is 4-0 SU vs. CMU and Ball has won last 5 SU vs. Chips. Lembo 3-5 as Muncie dog since arriving in 2011.
*CMU, based on recent trends.
TOLEDO at UMASS (at Foxborough)
Rockets are 5-0-1 vs. line TY, 8-0-2 last ten on board. Mass 6-2 vs. line as host (Gillette, where this one is played, and McGuirk since LY.
*Slight to Toledo, based on team trends.
OHIO at BUFFALO
Solich 5-2 vs. line TY, though only 1-1 as road chalk. Solich 2-1 vs. line away TY after 4-12-1 spread mark as visitor previous three years. Bulls 9-6 vs. spread last 15 at UB Stadium.
*Slight to Ohio, based on recent trends.
PITT at SYRACUSE
Narduzzi 4-1 vs. line last five TY as the road team has covered all six Pitt games to date (Panthers 4-0 vs. line away). Pitt has covered last six in series.
*Pitt, based on team trends.
INDIANA at MICHIGAN STATE
MSU 1-6 vs. line TY. Last IU SU win in series 2006, five straight Spartans SU wins since. Dantonio 8-16 last 24 as East Lansing chalk. Hoosiers just 5-10 last 15 as road dog.
*Slight to IU, based on recent MSU spread woes.
CLEMSON at MIAMI-FLA
Dabo 6-1-1 vs. line last eight on board. But he is 0-4 as visiting chalk since LY. Al Golden was 1-6 as dog past two years before recent cover vs. FSU.
*Slight to Clemson, based on team trends.
NC STATE at WAKE FOREST
After seven straight covers dating to late 2014, NCS has lost and failed to cover last two. Home team has won and covered last eight in series. Pack has covered last three as road chalk after dropping previous seven in role. Deacs 7-3-1 last 11 as home dog.
*Slight to Wake, based on team and series home trends.
MISSOURI at VANDERBILT
Dores 9-5-1 last 15 on board. Derek Mason 7-3 last ten as dog. Pinkel 0-1 as road chalk TY but was 5-0 in role previous two seasons.
*Vandy, based on team trends.
MIAMI-OHIO at WESTERN MICHIGAN
After 5-1 as road dog LY, Miami 1-3 in role thus far in 2015. Which makes RedHawks 8-15-1 vs. line in role since 2012. WMU 14-5 vs. line since 2014, 4-0 laying DD.
*WMU, based on team trends.
TULANE at NAVY
Mids have now covered last five at Annapolis. Also 4-0 as chalk TY. Wave 6-12 last 18 on board.
*Navy, based on team trends.
WYOMING at BOISE STATE
Bohl surprising 3-0 vs. line away TY as Cowboys have covered four of last five. Also 5-1 last six as road dog. Boise has won last five years vs. Wyo by 22 or more, 4-1 vs. line in those games.
*Wyo, based on team trends.
FRESNO STATE at AIR FORCE
DeRuyter 2-5 vs. line TY, 2-6 last eight, 13-21-1 last 35 on board. FSU 0-3 as DD dog TY, 2-6 last 8 in role. Force 6-2 last 8 vs. line at home.
*Air Force, based on team trends.
NORTH TEXAS at MARSHALL
UNT broke 6-game spread skid with backdoor cover vs. WKU. Mean Green 0-9 as road dog since LY (0-3 TY)! Herd 12-4-1 as home chalk since 2013 (3-1 TY).
*Marshall, based on team trends.
UTAH at SOUTHERN CAL
Utes 8-1 vs. spread last nine away from home. Whittingham 7-2 last nine as dog. Trojans no covers last two at Coliseum.
*Utah, based on team trends.
WASHINGTON at STANFORD
Hot Tree has won and covered five straight and Shaw is 9-3 vs. line last 12 on Farm. Huskies, however, have covered last 3 in series.
*Slight to Stanford, based on recent trends.
TENNESSEE at ALABAMA
Nick had covered four straight vs. Vols prior to LY. Butch Jones 3-1 as dog since LY. Nick no covers first four at home TY and just 1-6 last seven vs. spread at Tuscaloosa.
*UT, based on recent trends.
KANSAS STATE at TEXAS
Bill Snyder has won and covered four of last five vs. Texas since 2010. Horns 2-4-1 last seven as home dog, Snyder 15-5 vs. spread last 20 as visitor.
*KSU, based on team and series trends.
TEXAS A&M at OLE MISS
Hugh Freeze has covered four of last five at Oxford. He’s also covered last three vs. A&M. Ags 3-6 vs. spread as visitor since 2013, 4-6 last ten as dog.
*Ole Miss, based on team trends.
VIRGINIA at NORTH CAROLINA
Five straight wins and covers in series for UNC. Fedora 5-2 vs. line last seven at Chapel Hill. Though Mike London is 7-3-1 last 11 as dog.
*UNC, based on series trends.
NORTHWESTERN at NEBRASKA
Mike Riley 5-14 last 19 on board at OSU and Nebraska. Cats have covered 3 of last 4 years vs. Huskers with the loss LY. Huskers 1-6 vs. spread last 7 at Lincoln.
*Northwestern, based on recent trends.
WISCONSIN at ILLINOIS
Cubit 4-2 vs. line with Illini, which is 8-4 vs. spread last 12 in reg. season. Illini 8-3 last 11 as Champaign-Urbana dog. Badgers covering every-other-week for Chryst.
*Slight to Illini, based on team trends.
DUKE at VIRGINIA TECH
Beamer 10-18-1 vs. spread last 29 at Blacksburg. Duke 11-3-1 vs. line away from Durham since 2013.
*Duke, based on team trends.
UL-MONROE at IDAHO
Vandals 5-13 vs. spread last 18 at Kibbie Dome. Road team 13-4 vs. line in Idaho games since LY.
*ULM, based on road-in-Idaho trends.
HOUSTON at UCF
O’Leary 0-8 SU, 1-7 vs. line last 8 since late 2014. Though UCF has won last 2 SU vs. UH. Cougs 23-10-1 vs. line since end of 2012, and 13-0-1 vs. spread last 13 as visitor.
*UH, based on team trends.
COLORADO at OREGON STATE
Buffs no covers last five as visitor. Beavs 3-7 last 10 as home chalk (1-1 TY) but just 3-15 vs. spread since 2014.
*CU, based on recent OSU woes.
IOWA STATE at BAYLOR
ISU 4-13-1 as DD dog since 2012. Baylor 18-7-1 as DD chalk since 2013, and 10-2 last 12 laying 30 or more. Though Briles only 1-1-1 vs. line last three vs. ISU.
*Baylor, based on team trends.
PENN STATE vs. MARYLAND (at Baltimore)
The return of Mike Locksley as head coach! With Lobos, he was 2-26 SU and 9-19 vs. line from 2009-11 (fired after four in 2011). Assuming Terps home here, no covers last three as home dog. James Franklin 0-6 vs. line as visitor with Nittany Lions.
*Penn State, based on team trends.
ARMY at RICE
All of a sudden, Army can’t lose vs. number on road, covering last three as visitor after extended road slump. But Rice battered West Point 41-21 LY and is 10-3 its last 13 as home chalk. Bailiff on 30-16-1 spread run for Owls.
*Rice, based on team trends.
SOUTHERN MISS at CHARLOTTE
Golden Eagles 6-1 vs. line this season, 49ers 1-3 last four vs. spread.
*USM, based on team trends.
BOSTON COLLEGE at LOUISVILLE
Ugh! Rugged BC has covered four straight as road dog and Addazio 17-12 last 29 on board. Cards 5-9 last 14 as Papa John’s chalk.
*BC, based on team trends.
MIDDLE TENNESSEE at LA TECH
Skip 3-4 vs. line TY but 14-7 vs. spread since 2014. Also 4-1 vs. spread last five at Ruston. Stockstill no covers last three TY after opening 4-0 vs. line.
*La Tech, based on team trends.
UCONN at CINCINNATI
UConn 5-14 vs. line since LY (3-4 TY). Cincy has won and covered last four meetings but is 1-4-1 last six as home chalk (Paul Brown and Nippert).
*Slight to Uconn, based on recent trends.
SMU at SOUTH FLORIDA
Chad Morris is 4-2 vs. line with SMU though recent efforts not overwhelming. USF 5-1 vs. line TY and 2-0 as home chalk.
*USF, based on recent trends.
OLD DOMINION at FIU
ODU no covers first six TY and 2-12 last 14 on board. FIU 14-6 last 20 overall and covers last 3 as home chalk.
*FIU, based on team trends.
KENTUCKY at MISSISSIPPI STATE
Dan Mullen is 4-1-1 vs. line against UK since 2009 and 7-1 vs. spread last 8 SEC home games. Mark Stoops has covered last two as road dog.
*Slight to MSU, based on team and series trends.
AUBURN at ARKANSAS
Malzahn is 2-0 SU and vs. line against Bielema, Auburn did break 10-game spread skid with win at UK. Bielema 7-1 vs. spread last 8 at Fayetteville.
*Arkansas, based on team trends.
TEXAS TECH at OKLAHOMA
Kingsbury 5-1 last six as dog. Tech’s last SU win vs. Stoops was in 2011.
*Texas Tech, based on team trends.
KANSAS at OKLAHOMA STATE
Jayhawks 2-7-1 vs. spread last 10 on road. KU has covered 2 of last 3 in series, however, and OSU just 1-4 vs. spread last five at Stillwater.
*Slight to OSU, based on team trends.
FLORIDA STATE at GEORGIA TECH
Rematch of LY’s ACC title game that was part of GT’s nine-game cover streak. Since then however Jackets have dropped last 5 SU and vs. line. Jimbo just 6-15 his last 21 on board. Paul Johnson still 6-2 last 9 as dog.
*Slight to GT, based on team trends.
OHIO STATE at RUTGERS
Urban just 2-5 last seven as visiting chalk. Rutgers 11-5 last 16 as dog.
*Slight to Rutgers, based on team trends.
WESTERN KENTUCKY at LSU
Tops 7-2-1 vs. line last ten in regular season. Les Miles 5-10 last 15 laying DD, no covers last three vs. non-SEC.
*WKU, based on team trends.
FAU at UTEP
Miners 1-5 vs. line TY, 1-7-1 last 9 on board. FAU 5-2 vs. line last seven away, 17-3 last 20 vs. spread on road!
*FAU, based on team trends.
TROY at NEW MEXICO STATE
NMSU 6-12-1 vs. line last 19 in Las Cruces. Ags 2-6-1 vs. number last nine games with single-digit spreads. Troy has covered 3 of last 4 on road.
*Slight to Troy, based on NMSU woes.
NEW MEXICO at SAN JOSE STATE
Lobos 7-2-1 last 10 vs. spread on road.
*Slight to UNM, based on team trends.
HAWAII at NEVADA
Norm Chow 0-3 SU and vs. line vs. Wolf Pack since 2012. Pack 4-0 SU last four in series.
*Nevada, based on series trends.
WASHINGTON STATE at ARIZONA
Leach 3-0 as road dog TY and 10-2 in role since 2013.
*WSU, based on team trends.October 21, 2015 at 10:07 am #9694
Central Michigan is the best ATS wager in the country
By Andrew Avery
One of the biggest surprises of the college football season has to be the Central Michigan Chippewas, who improved their college football-best record against the spread to 7-0 with a 51-14 thumping of the Buffalo Bulls as 7-point home favorites Saturday.
The Chippewas are just 3-4 straight up but a slew of close games have them as the hottest bet in the land.
They’ve even taken on some of the biggest programs in the country, including Oklahoma State, Syracuse and Michigan State, but cashed in as dogs of 21, 8, and 25.5 points respectively.
The Chippewas will travel to Ball State in Week 8 of the schedule. Ball State has head the SU and ATS edge in recent meetings, going 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in the previous five meetings dating back to 2010.October 21, 2015 at 10:09 am #9695
Red-hot Clemson opens as 5-point road favorite at Miami
By Colin Kelly
There hasn’t been a whole lot of talk about Clemson through the first seven weeks of the 2015 college football season. That could change soon if the Tigers keep it up.
Clemson is now 6-0 SU (3-3 ATS), and although Florida State looms large a couple of weeks from now, that game is at home. Arguably, Clemson’s biggest road test the rest of the way is this week at Miami.
The Tigers already own a victory over a solid Notre Dame squad, and on Saturday, they coasted past Boston College 34-17, failing to cash as 18-point chalk when BC put up an otherwise meaningless touchdown with 1:29 left in the game.
Miami (4-2 SU and ATS) bounced back from a pair of losses – including a near upset at Florida State – to best Virginia Tech 30-20 Saturday laying 3 points at home.
Johnny Avello, executive director of race and sports at Wynn Las Vegas, made Clemson a 5-point favorite.
“Clemson seems to have put it somewhat together after a couple of nailbiters against Louisville and Notre Dame,” Avello said. “One of the Tigers’ major issues has been turnovers, and because of that, their opponents are never out of it. Miami needs this ‘W’ to stay in the ACC Coastal Division hunt.”
Texas A&M Aggies at Mississippi Rebels (-4.5)
Texas A&M (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) just hit its first bump in the road this season, though that bump came in the form of perennial national title contender Alabama.
The Aggies got thumped 41-23 as a 5-point home underdog Saturday.
Still, that doesn’t take A&M out of the SEC title picture yet. Mississippi, however, already got trounced at Florida (38-10 giving 6.5 points), and on Saturday, the Rebels were dealt a shocking 37-24 nonconference loss at Memphis as a 10-point favorite.
“Both of these teams’ national championship hopes were deflated on Saturday,” Avello said. “Texas A&M at least had an excuse, playing college football’s elite, but Ole Miss didn’t and took Memphis too lightly after having a 14-0 lead. The Aggies go on the road for the first time this year, where they have struggled in past years.”
Utah Utes at Southern California Trojans (-3)
Southern Cal (3-3 SU and ATS) has seen a once-promising season turn into a dumpster fire, with the lowlight being last week’s firing of coach Steve Sarkisian.
Yet interim coach Clay Helton and the Trojans gave Notre Dame a big fight on Saturday and will actually be favored against unbeaten Utah.
USC, a 6-point road ‘dog, ripped off 21 straight points to erase a 24-10 deficit and take a 31-24 lead five minutes into the third quarter, but the Irish rallied for the last 17 points of the game to win, 41-31.
Utah (6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS) is not only atop the Pac-12 but also in the early conversation for this year’s four-team playoff. The Utes dispatched Arizona State 34-18 as a 4.5-point fave Saturday.
“What a year for the Utes, as they continue to find ways to win,” Avello said. “The Utah run defense has been very difficult to penetrate – just ask Arizona State – so USC quarterback Cody Kessler needs to be super sharp in this matchup.”
California Golden Bears at UCLA Bruins (-5.5)
Beyond Utah, the Pac-12 is jumbled up at midseason, with Cal and UCLA both still in the mix in the North and South divisions respectively, heading into a Thursday night showdown.
The Golden Bears (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) took their lone loss the last time out, a respectable 30-24 setback catching 7.5 points at Utah on Oct. 10. Cal is coming off its bye.
The Bruins (4-2 SU, 2-3-1 ATS) got out of the gate with four straight victories, but they’ve stubbed their toes hard in the last two games. On Oct. 3, UCLA tumbled to Arizona State 38-23 giving 12.5 points at home, and a bye week did little to help the Bruins, as they got steamrolled 56-35 getting 6.5 points at Stanford on Thursday.
“Cal is having a very successful season, with the only setback a close loss to Utah,” Avello said. “UCLA has a two-game losing skid, as it did last year at this time of the season, and guess who the Bruins met? Yes, Cal, and the Bruins won a close one (36-34 as 6.5-point road faves). This game should attract good action, as it’s the marquee college matchup on Thursday night.”October 21, 2015 at 10:11 am #9696
Don’t dare let these three spot bet opportunities pass you by
By Ben Burns
Spot bets are classic handicapping practices that have proven profitable no matter what sport you’re betting. Whether it’s a team looking past this week’s opponent, one coming off a hard-fought victory, or a rough patch of schedule, bettors can find value picking their spots. Ben Burns points out his favorites:
The Northern Illinois Huskies are chasing down the Toledo Rockets in the MAC West and take on the 6-0 Rockets in Week 8, but before that game NIU is giving heaps of points to the Eastern Michigan Eagles at home this weekend. Books have installed the Huskies as 28-point favorites in DeKalb Saturday.
Northern Illinois has dealt with a mountain chalk like this already this season, covering against FCS Murray State as 29.5-point home chalk in Week 2. And that game preceded a meeting with the defending national champs, Ohio State. However, EMU has covered in five of its last six trips to NIU and the road team is a dominant 11-3 ATS in the last 14 matchups between these MAC rivals.
The Memphis Tigers put their name among the top programs in college football with an impressive upset over Ole Miss this past weekend, beating the Rebels 37-24 as 10-point home underdogs Saturday. The victory over Mississippi improves the Tigers to 6-0 SU and 3-2 ATS but also sets them up for a classic letdown in Week 8.
Memphis follows that big home win with a road trip to 3-3 Tulsa, which is getting 11 points from oddsmakers. The Golden Hurricane have lost three of their last four games, including a 30-17 defeat to East Carolina but did manage to cover in that game as 14-point pups. Memphis hasn’t had much luck against Tulsa in the past – at least not from a betting standpoint – covering just once in their last six meetings.
Who wants to leave the cozy warmth of the desert for the damp and dank late-October weather on the East Coast? No one, and definitely not the Arizona Coyotes. Arizona crosses the country for a massive eastern tour, starting in New Jersey Tuesday – the first of five straight road games and one of 16 of the Coyotes’ next 23 games to be played away from Gila River Arena. That span takes the team in mid-December.
Arizona follows Tuesday’s game with the Devils by making the move to MSG to play the Rangers Thursday, then to Ottawa Saturday. The final two games of this trek take the Coyotes to Toronto and Boston Monday and Tuesday, closing a stretch of four games in six days. Arizona has won both road games already this season, at Pittsburgh and Anaheim.October 21, 2015 at 6:17 pm #9749
NCAA Football Betting Trends – Saturday – Oct, 24
Eastern Michigan at Northern Illinois, 3:30 ET
E Michigan: 5-14 ATS against conference opponents
N Illinois: 6-0 ATS after a cover as a double digit favorite
Central Michigan at Ball State, 3:00 ET
C Michigan: 6-0 ATS in games played on turf
Ball St: 1-8 ATS in home lined games
Toledo at Massachusetts, 3:00 ET
Toledo: 18-6 ATS off a home blowout win by 28 points or more
Massachusetts: 11-3 OVER as an underdog
Bowling Green at Kent State, 1:00 ET
Bowling Green: 9-0 ATS after a win by 21 or more points
Kent St: 4-14 ATS after a playing a game where 29 total points or less were scored
Ohio at Buffalo, 3:30 ET
Ohio: 0-8 ATS on road after 3 games where they committed 1 or less turnovers
Buffalo: 11-6 ATS against conference opponents
Pittsburgh at Syracuse, 12:00 ET
Pittsburgh: 11-28 ATS after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game
Syracuse: 6-0 ATS after allowing 37 points or more last game
Indiana at Michigan State, 3:30 ET
Indiana: 7-19 ATS after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game
Michigan St: 10-2 ATS after playing their last game on the road
Clemson at Miami Florida, 12:00 ET
Clemson: 11-2 ATS after gaining 375 or more passing yards in last game
Miami FL: 2-10 ATS after playing 2 straight conference games
North Carolnia State at Wake Forest, 12:00 ET
N Carolina St: 26-10 ATS off 2 or more consecutive unders
Wake Forest: 8-1 UNDER off a road loss
Missouri at Vanderbilt, 4:00 ET
Missouri: 6-0 ATS off a loss against a conference rival
Vanderbilt: 15-30 ATS in home games in October
Miami Ohio at Western Michigan, 2:00 ET
Miami Ohio: 0-6 ATS after scoring 14 points or less in 3 straight games
W Michigan: 6-0 ATS after scoring 42 points or more last game
Tulane at Navy, 1:00 ET
Tulane: 16-34 ATS on road after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers
Navy: 17-7 ATS after gaining 125 or less passing yards in last game
Wyoming at Boise State, 10:15 ET
Wyoming: 16-3 UNDER as a road underdog of 21.5 or more
Boise St: 13-3 ATS after allowing 24 points or more in the first half last game
Fresno State at Air Force, 2:00 ET
Fresno St: 6-0 OVER as an underdog of 10.5 to 21
Air Force: 0-6 ATS after having lost 2 out of their last 3
North Texas at Marshall, 3:30 ET
N Texas: 0-9 ATS as a road underdog
Marshall: 7-0 ATS at home after gaining 300 or more rushing yards last game
Utah at USC, 7:30 ET
Utah: 35-18 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10
USC: 37-19 UNDER after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game
Washington at Stanford, 10:30 ET
Washington: 14-20 ATS after a game where they forced no turnovers
Stanford: 20-8 ATS off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a conference rival
Tennessee at Alabama, 3:30 ET
Tennessee: 16-3 ATS on road after 2 games where they forced 1 or less turnovers
Alabama: 50-73 ATS in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest
Kansas State at Texas, 12:00 ET
Kansas St: 16-4 ATS after a loss by 21 or more points
Texas: 11-3 UNDER after playing 3 straight conference games
Texas AM at Mississippi, 7:00 ET
Texas AM: 3-16 ATS in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 63
Mississippi: 31-14 ATS in games played on turf
Virginia at North Carolina, 7:00 ET
Virginia: 37-21 UNDER as a road underdog
North Carolina: 9-26 ATS after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games
Northwestern at Nebraska, 12:00 ET
Northwestern: 21-8 ATS on road after game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse
Nebraska: 0-6 ATS in home games after playing 3 straight conference games
Wisconsin at Illinois, 3:30 ET
Wisconsin: 22-8 ATS after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game
Illinois: 61-86 ATS after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses
Duke at Virginia Tech, 3:30 ET
Duke: 6-0 ATS after a bye week
Virginia Tech: 9-2 UNDER against conference opponents
UL Monroe at Idaho, 5:00 ET
Monroe: 25-10 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses
Idaho: 6-18 ATS in dome games
Houston at Central Florida, 12:00 ET
Houston: 9-0 ATS in road games against conference opponents
C Florida: 11-2 UNDER at home after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses
Colorado at Oregon State, 10:30 ET
Colorado: 4-15 ATS in road games off 2 or more consecutive overs
Oregon St: 9-1 ATS after allowing 450 or more total yards in 2 games
Iowa State at Baylor, 12:00 ET
Iowa St: 0-7 ATS after allowing 525 or more total yards in their previous game
Baylor: 10-2 ATS in home games off a home win by 17 points or more
Penn State at Maryland, 3:30 ET
Penn St: 1-8 ATS in games played on turf
Maryland: 28-10 ATS off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a conference rival
Army at Rice, 12:00 ET
Army: 5-19 ATS after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6
Rice: 24-11 ATS off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog
Southern Miss at Charlotte, 12:00 ET
S Miss: 19-8 ATS off 2 or more consecutive unders
Charlotte: 0-1 ATS in home lined games
Boston College at Louisville, 12:30 ET
Boston College: 10-2 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread
Louisville: 0-8 ATS in home games after the first month of the season
Mid Tennessee State at Louisiana Tech, 3:30 ET
Mid Tenn St: 6-0 UNDER after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games
Louisiana Tech: 18-5 ATS after a game where they forced no turnovers
Connecticut at Cincinnati, 4:30 ET
Connecticut: 0-7 ATS after having lost 2 out of their last 3
Cincinnati: 35-20 ATS at home after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses
SMU at South Florida, 4:00 ET
SMU: 16-32 ATS off a road blowout loss by 21 points or more
S Florida: 13-4 UNDER off an upset win as an underdog
South Alabama at Texas State, 4:00 ET
S Alabama: 3-13 ATS after playing 2 straight conference games
Texas St: 12-6 ATS after playing a conference game
Old Dominion at Florida International, 6:00 ET
Old Dominion: 0-6 ATS in games played on turf
Florida INT: 12-2 UNDER in home games after allowing 42 points or more last game
Kentucky at Mississippi State, 7:30 ET
Kentucky: 25-44 ATS off a home loss
Mississippi St: 15-5 ATS after playing 2 straight non-conference games
Auburn at Arkansas, 12:00 ET
Auburn: 5-14 ATS in all lined games
Arkansas: 32-17 ATS after having lost 3 out of their last 4
Texas Tech at Oklahoma, 3:30 ET
Texas Tech: 1-7 ATs after gaining 450 or more total yards in 4 games
Oklahoma: 5-3 ATS after allowing 14 points or less last game
Kansas at Oklahoma State, 3:30 ET
Kansas: 46-75 ATS off a loss against a conference rival
Oklahoma St: 15-4 ATS after 2 straight games with 40 or more pass attempts
Florida State at Georgia Tech, 7:00 ET
Florida St: 2-10 ATS after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in previous game
Georgia Tech: 17-6 ATS at home after a game where they forced no turnovers
Ohio State at Rutgers, 8:00 ET
Ohio State: 49-31 ATS as a road favorite
Rutgers: 2-11 ATS at home after allowing 525 or more total yards in previous game
Western Kentucky at LSU, 7:00 ET
W Kentucky: 8-0 ATS on road after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3
LSU: 6-18 ATS as a home favorite of 14.5 to 21
Florida Atlantic at Utep, 7:00 ET
Florida ATL: 6-0 UNDER in road games off 1 or more straight overs
UTEP: 3-13 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread
Tory at New Mexico State, 8:00 ET
Troy: 8-2 ATS off a home loss against a conference rival
New Mexico St: 0-7 ATS after playing a conference game
New Mexico at San Jose State, 7:00 ET
New Mexico: 40-23 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10
San Jose St: 0-8 ATS after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game
Hawaii at Nevada, 4:00 ET
Hawaii: 1-4 ATS off a road cover where the team lost as an underdog
Nevada: 6-0 ATS in a home game where the total is between 49.5 and 52
Washington State at Arizona, 4:00 ET
Washington St: 10-2 ATS as a road underdog
Arizona: 35-55 ATS as a home favoriteOctober 21, 2015 at 6:22 pm #9750
Indiana at Michigan St. (-17) 3:30 ET ABC
Indiana travels to East Lansing to face Michigan St. this week in what can only be termed this year’s biggest letdown game of the year. Based on the results of last week and recent history between these two, it would appear that the Spartans are in for a monumental letdown when they face the visiting Hoosiers this weekend.
When these two met last season in Bloomington, it was (56-17) Michigan St, as they outgained the Hoosiers 662-224. These teams have played 6 times in the last 8 years, during the Mark Dantonio era at East Lansing. Sparty is 6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS in those games, putting series history firmly on the side of the Spartans. Those results, however, can only lead to the letdown scenario following last week’s results. For, how does Michigan St. get emotionally ready to play this contest after the events of last week?
Michigan St. was caught sleepwalking through the first half of this year’s college football season. With a Top 10 rating and numerous accolades, it was clear that 9th year HC Dantonio was playing it close to the vest, saving a huge emotional reserve for the more important games on the Big 10 schedule. Granted, there was (what looked like at the time) a huge revenge win over Oregon on this field (31-28) September 12th. But against outmanned foes, W. Michigan, Air Force, C. Michigan, Purdue and Rutgers (all games in which they were favored by 16 or more points), Dantonio rarely went to the whip. Last week, entering the huge rivalry game with Michigan, his Spartans were a predicted 6-0 SU, but somnambulant 0-6 ATS. Trailing 23-14 in the 2nd half, it was going to take 2 late scores against a Michigan defense, who had only allowed 14 total points in their previous 5 games for what seemed to be a miraculous Michigan St. victory. All seemed lost, when they trailed 23-20 in what appeared to be the final play of the game. But a Michigan botched snap from center and the ensuing Michigan St. fumble return for the TD, resulted in a most improbable Michigan St. (27-23) victory. It most certainly must rank as one of the Top 10 final plays in CFB annals. It can also ONLY lead to a MAJOR LETDOWN in a role where the Spartans have failed miserably all season.
Today’s opponent, Indiana, was going through its own torture test in its home game last week against Rutgers. Leading 52-27 at the start of the 4th quarter, it appeared that the Hoosiers had things well under control. But, Rutgers scored 28 consecutive points to close out the game resulting in an improbable (55-52) Indiana home loss and a typical 0-3 SU conference start, after previous losses to Ohio St. and Penn St. This is now starting to resemble a typical Indiana team, who is good hit but no field! Again last week, they posted 622 offensive yards but allowed Rutgers to gain 596 yards. In the 4 seasons under 5th year HC Wilson, the Spartans have allowed an average of 35 PPG and nearly 500 YPG. Yet, behind QB Sudfeld, this is an Indiana team that packs an offensive wallop. With last week’s outburst, they now average 37 PPG and 500 YPG. That type of offensive firepower is enough to allow the Hoosiers to do no worse than slip in the back door against a Michigan St. team, who has shown no propensity to blow out opponents this 2015 CFB season.
Clemson (-6-) at Miami, FL Noon ET ABC
Undefeated road favorite Clemson at 6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS rolls into South Florida in letdown mode after 3 consecutive home victories vs. Notre Dame, Georgia Tech and Boston College. In fact, all 5 spread wins have come at home. In their only road game as 5 point chalk at Louisville, they survived 20-17. Gotta love the emotion of 7th year HC Swinney, the QB play of Watson and a defense that is allowing just 17 PPG for consecutive seasons! Today, however, I favor a Miami team, who is in weekly “save our season” mode. Last week, they did so on this field with a (30-20) win over VA Tech, aided by a (+4) net TO margin. There HC Golden, who continues to be on the hot seat, is 14-1 ATS in his coaching career as a home dog in this price range. Huge situational and emotional advantage for the Hurricanes who, behind QB Kaaya, have the ability to spring this upset against an unsuspecting, undefeated road favorite.
Fresno State at Air Force (-17-) 2:00 PM EST
Fresno State goes to Colorado Springs this Saturday where they will play the Air Force Academy for their first altitude game of the season. Anybody who watched Cincinnati travel to BYU and get outscored 21-0 in the fourth quarter last Thursday will understand the importance of the altitude advantage when teams from sea level travel to the mile high altitude of the Rocky Mountains. But there is oh so much more to this play than just altitude. Before we can consider the situation of the play, let’s turn our attention to the fundamental advantage of this game in which it is all but assured that the Fly Boys of Air Force will Double Rush the Bulldogs of Fresno State.
Even though these teams play in the same Conference, Fresno has not visited AFA in the last 10 years. It will be quite a “breathtaking experience” when they enter Falcon Stadium this Saturday. When they do so, Fresno will be dragging with them a defense that allows 41 PPG, 208 RYPG, and 4.5 YPR. They are clearly ripe to be dominated overland by an Air Force triple option attack that averages 312 YPG on 5.3 YPR. With Fresno averaging just 130/3.6 overland, and Air Force allowing 138/3.8 overland, is there any way that Air Force does not Double Rush Fresno?
Already this season, Air Force has Double Rushed four opponents with a 3-1 ATS mark. Does a 75% ATS win proficiency level sound familiar? Fresno, conversely, has been Double Rushed three times this year, at San Jose, at San Diego State, and vs Utah State. That 0-3 ATS result saw them lose by a combined 61 points to the spread.
With fundamentals in place, we turn to the situation surrounding today’s game. It is the perfect example of a “double blowout”, which finds the teams meeting with diametrically opposite results from last week’s play. This not only provides great line value, but also aids in the emotional approach each team will have to this game. Fresno hosted UNLV last week, catching the Running Rebels after UNLV upset their rival Nevada on October 3rd, and suffered a hard fought home loss to San Jose State October 10th. The Rebels were ripe to be plucked. With Fresno entering on an 0-5 SU ATS streak, UNLV was clearly overconfident and the line value accrued to the Bulldogs. The result was a 31-28 Fresno win, their only victory since beating ABC (Abilene Christian) in their opener. If you’re thinking flat spot for Fresno off that upset, we are on the same page.
For Air Force, they came into last week following a 4 net turnover loss to Navy, followed by a border rival victory on this field vs Wyoming. Traveling to face struggling in-state rival Colorado State, they were shocked by the Rams, 38-23. Now Air Force returns home with a 3-3 SU ATS record, still needing a trio of victories for Bowl qualification. Do not expect this one to get away from the Falcons, who need a confidence building win.
With the situation backing the fundamentals, it will be no surprise to this bureau if the Fly Boys Falcons work their flex bone offense to perfection in authoring a 4 TD victory against the Fresno State Bulldogs, who will be gasping for air by the time the fourth quarter rolls around.
Utah at USC (-3-) 7:30 ET FOX TV
Contrary home chalk call against an undefeated road dog, who is 6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS (covering the number by a net of 70 points), against a USC team who many perceive to be in a world of hurt. The line has dropped by over a TD from where it would have been opening week. There is no denying the strong fundamentals of this Utah team, who barely outgains the opposition 396-370. They have been +TO margin in 5 of their 6 games. That includes last week’s come from behind win, when a 4th quarter altitude blitz resulted in a (34-18) victory against the visiting Sun Devils. They enter today on runs of 5-0 ATS as road dog and having covered 5 of 6 previous games following a win and cover. In short, this fundamentally sound, emotionally even team may not suffer the perceived letdown. Certainly, this is a USC team that, besides the value in the line, has a lot going for it. From a situational perspective, the Trojans play with 24-21 revenge for a loss at Utah last year when they outgained the Utes (what’s new?) 366-330. Of equal importance is that USC returns home to play off consecutive losses, including a PHL (previous home loss) to Washington (17-12) as 17 point home chalk, followed by a (41-31) 4th quarter meltdown at Notre Dame last week when they outgained the Irish 590-476. That situational advantage outweighs the firing of former HC Sarkisian (who has not played one down for the Trojans) and for whom the players having nothing but sympathy, as the former mentor enters alcohol rehab. Look for a resounding performance from the Trojans against the undefeated Utes, as they flip the switch, save their season and spin Utah into undefeated letdown mode.
Texas A&M at Ole Miss (-6) 7:00 ET ESPN
Each of these teams enters at 2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS in SEC West play. Each is also off a humiliating loss. Last week, the Aggies entered as an undefeated home dog against Alabama. They leave College Station FOR THEIR FIRST TRUE ROAD GAME with the embarrassment of a (41-23) loss in which the Aggies suffered a trio of pick 6s. Last year, A&M was in a similar situation. They began the year with 5 consecutive victories before traveling to Starkville where they were beaten (48-31) by Mississippi St. The ensuing week, they returned home to face Ole Miss. With their bubble burst, they fell (35-20) courtesy of a (-3) net TO margin which included both a pick 6 and fumble 6 return. Well aware that Ole Miss is off its own embarrassing defeat, when they lost (37-24) at Memphis. But, that situation puts the advantage directly in the favor of the Rebels, who already suffered their own bubble burst after a Florida loss, only to bounce back with a (52-3) win and cover against New Mexico St. the following week. Key technical trends include the fact that the Aggies are winless ATS in 9 tries following a defeat when facing a Class A opponent. In addition, always eager to back Ole Miss HC Freeze who, in his coaching career, is now 28-10 ATS if not road chalk and 16-3 ATS when coaching his team against a foe off a loss. Check injury updates on a pair of key performers, DL Nkemdiche (head) and RB Walton (ankle), who are each questionable for this contest.
LA Monroe (-1) at Idaho 5:00 ET
The LA Monroe Warhawks travel to Moscow, Idaho to faceoff in an unusually named “Sun Belt Conference” game this Saturday at 5:00 pm ET. As with all Idaho home games, it is played in their Kibbie Dome home, a facility that is used for the majority of Idaho sporting events. It features a Warhawk team who is 1-4 SU for the season, including 0-3 SU ATS in Sun Belt play against an Idaho team, who is 2-4 SU for the season and 1-2 SU in Sun Belt play.
Each week of the CFB season, I isolate a home underdog who is due for a letdown based on the previous week’s performance. This happens when our current home dog (the inferior team in the eyes of the linemaker) has just won a contest outright on the road as an underdog of 7 or more points. The shocking upset causes a letdown for this team, as the victory is akin to a “blind hog finding an acorn.” Such was the case with the Vandals’ victory last week at Troy. As 13 point underdog on the opening line, Idaho prevailed by a score of 19-16 in a surprisingly, low-scoring game. In that contest, Idaho was outrushed and out-passed but got the (19-16) victory because of a (+4) net TO margin. As expected, the victory was unearned.
The Idaho program continues to struggle under 3rd year HC Petrino. Even with this year’s 2-4 SU record, the Vandals are just 4-25 SU the previous 3 years and 7-46 SU (4+Y). This is not a team who is used to victory. As Petrino continues to build through the JUCO ranks, the Vandals remain one of the worst defensive teams on the CFB landscape. For the season, they allow 42 PPG, 289/6.6 overland and 227/9.3 through the airways. Those stats are horrible! Their lone level of success is behind QB Linehan, who leads a passing game averaging 253 PYPG. This program is simply not built for success, as they are 0-24 SU following a victory.
The 1-4 SU mark of LA Monroe with 4 consecutive victories makes it hard to back this team on the road AT FIRST GLANCE! But, they do have the confidence of defeating Idaho last year (38-31), when they gained 534 yards. In addition, LA Monroe has played a highly-competitive schedule including games against Georgia, Alabama and Tulsa on the road, along with Sun Belt Conference games against the 2 best teams in the league (GA Southern and App St.). Today, they step way down in class at a value price, knowing that a victory here and a manageable slate for the remainder of the season could allow them to get their goal of 6 victories.
We make this BLIND HOG PLAY OF THE WEEK knowing the history of a Monroe team, who is a perfect 10-0 ATS on the road following consecutive games in which they have failed to win either outright or against the spread.
Iowa St. at Baylor (-37) Noon ET ESPN
We kick off your CFB Saturday with this Noon ET start. 2-4 SU Iowa St., who is 1-2 SU in the Big 12, visits the Baylor Bears, who are 3-0 SU ATS in the Big 12 and looking to retain their Top 4 status with yet another blowout win. Last year at Iowa St., Baylor won this matchup (49-28). It should have been much worse, as the yardage was 601-339. When they played on this field two years ago, Baylor won (71-7). That’s the type of pinball numbers this Baylor team is recording every weekend. Were it not for the Kansas Jayhawks, Iowa St. would be bringing up the bottom of the Big 12. We used Baylor in this very spot last week as our CRUSHER OF THE WEEK. They delivered with a 62-38 victory on this field vs. WVU. Today’s margin vs. an Iowa St. team who is mired in the basement of the Big 12 should be far greater.
In the last 2 weeks, Iowa St. has faced the high-powered offenses of Texas Tech and TCU. They allowed a combined 111 points and 1,397 yards. Now playing for a 3rd straight week against a video game type offense, there will be a negative mindset for the defensive players. They know the numbers that Baylor has put up, understand the defensive deficiencies that have been exposed the last 2 weeks and will expect to give up 60 or more points.
Sixty or more points is exactly what the Baylor Bears will be scoring again this week. Since an opening week win vs. SMU, when they put up “only 56,” Baylor has scored 62 or more points in 5 consecutive games. For the season, this No. 1 offense in the land is averaging 64 PPG on 720 YPG and 8.9 YP play. The best part is their beautiful offensive balance which sees them running for 349/7.1 and passing for 371/11.7. There are 2 great things about backing Baylor as a big favorite. First, is their experience from last year. Being snubbed from making the Final 4 has left this team hungry and playing with a chip on its shoulder. Secondly is their history in this price range under 8th year HC Briles, whose Bears are 10-2 ATS when laying 30 or more points. With the numbers recited above, expect Baylor to not only double-rush Iowa St. but to also easily run and pass for 200 yards, making them a qualifier for both the 200 Club as well as the double-rusher (see Article this week).
Penn St. (-6-) vs. Maryland 3:30 ET ESPN (Baltimore, MD)
Neutral site game in Baltimore should draw plenty of Penn St. fans who are far more excited about their 5-2 SU Nittany Lions than are Terp backers who have tossed the towel on a Maryland team who is 2-4 SU overall (losers of 3 straight) and winless in Big 10 play. Each of these teams last played defending champion, Ohio St., in Columbus. Maryland lost (49-28) against a disinterested Buckeye team. Penn St. lost last week (38-10) against a much more focused Ohio St. team.
The hiring of former OC Locksley must be considered a downgrade, even in the aftermath of the firing of former HC Edsall. This is the same former New Mexico HC who led the Lobos to a 2-26 SU mark and stated, when hired as the interim HC, “I have zero expectations of getting this job.” That hardly inspires confidence among a group of players who are being outscored 35-24 and outgained 457-341. Penn St., still with a 5-2 SU overall record, brings the No. 16 defense in the land allowing just 18/299 and the return of RB Barkley, who rushed for 194 RYPG vs. Ohio St. last week. In addition, there is the little matter of (20-19) Penn St. revenge for a loss at home to Maryland last year. A strong series history, which finds the Nittany Lions to be 35-2-1 SU, lets you know who the better program is!
UConn at Cincinnati (-12-) 4:30 ET CBC TV
This Saturday afternoon at 4:30 ET as televised on CBC TV, UConn will travel to Cincinnati for this AAC Conference game. Last year, this game was a nolo contender as the Bearcats whipped UConn (41-0), outgaining them 425-129. The year before that, on this field, it was (41-16) as 14 point home chalk. Normally, big dog shutout revenge would favor the visitor. But, since the Bearcats are 0-2 SU in league play and come off an embarrassing 4th quarter at BYU, there will obviously be no letdown on the part of Cincinnati.
UConn enters here at 4-3 ATS, covering by a net of 44 points. Cincinnati enters at 2-4 ATS, failing to the pointspread by a combined 25 points. This performance has resulted in a line that is arguably 10 points less than where it would have been opening week. In last week’s Pointspread Prognosis, when analyzing the Michigan St./Michigan game, in which the Spartans had a (-120) net AFP differential, I pointed out that there were an additional 10 games who qualified as AFP plays. To remind you once again, a FAVORING NEGATIVE NET AFP DIFFERENTIAL PLAY TAKES PLACE WHEN OUR TEAM IS (-20) OR WORSE NET POINTS FROM THE SPREAD IN YTD ACTION, AND IS PLAYING A TEAM WHO HAS A POSITIVE NET AFP DIFFERENTIAL OF +20 OR MORE IN YTD ACTION. When the sum is 50 or more points and today’s line is 7 or more points from the projected line on opening week, it is an over 60% play favoring our negative net AFP diff team. These AFP plays went 9-2 ATS last week. This week’s very contrary NET AFP DIFF plays include UCLA, Ball St., Miami, OH, Tulane, Wyoming, Virginia, UCF and ODU, along with this Cincinnati team. Be very careful when fading ANY of these ugly dogs who appear to be pure momentum PLAY AGAINST teams.
In today’s contest, we back an explosive Bearcat offense that will be looking to regain their confidence, after a 0-2 SU Conference start and a 21 point defensive meltdown at the altitude of Provo last Friday night resulted in a (38-24) loss. Look for a victory much in line with the 4 consecutive series wins by an average of 23 PPG, including a combined count of 82-16 the last 2 seasons. Don’t worry about UConn revenge! They have failed to cover the number the last 6 times as double digit road dog with revenge. Once the Huskies fall behind, they have no shot at playing catchup with a pop-gun offense that averages just 20/353.
Auburn at Arkansas (-5-) Noon ET SEC TV
The Auburn Tigers travel to Fayetteville to face the Arkansas Razorbacks in this Noon ET kick as televised by SEC TV. Last week, Auburn broke their 0-10 ATS slide with a narrow (30-27) road win at Kentucky. But, it was far from impressive as the defense allowed 497 yards to the Wildcats in a less than convincing victory. The perception for the Tigers may be one of excellence based on championship teams of years gone by. But the reality is far from that! Auburn is being outgained by an average of 426-354 per game. The offense is far below the standards authored by respected 3rd year HC Malzahn, whose Tigers averaged 37 PPG and nearly 500 YPG in the last 2 seasons. That is an issue when facing an Arkansas team who is quickly balancing their offense while continuing to improve their defense. With the addition of former C. Michigan HC Enos as OC and the abilities of Arkansas QB Allen, the Hogs are averaging 256 YPG through the air. Expect that to be balanced today as Bielema makes an anticipated return to the ground game which has been his bread and butter during both his time at Wisconsin and Arkansas. They will do a lot of business against an Auburn team that has allowed 201/5.9 overland in its 3 conference games. Huge Arkansas OL controls that side of the ball all afternoon. For motivation, look no further than double revenge. Last year, as 19 point road dog, Arkansas lost (45-21). The year before, on this field, Auburn again prevailed (35-17). That makes Bielema 0-2 SU vs. the Tigers and has had him openly stating that he “hates Auburn.” With a week of rest following 3 road games and a loss at Alabama and motivated by double revenge, this is a great spot for Arkansas to succeed against an Auburn team who is far below the standards of recent seasons. Lay it with confidence, as Bielema gets his double revenge AS THE SUPERIOR TEAM!
Texas Tech at Oklahoma (-14) 3:30 ET
Several good reasons to suit up with the Sooners this week in a momentum play. That momentum comes from a 55-0 Oklahoma win last week at Kansas St. That in turn was precipitated by the embarrassing (24-17) loss to Texas as 16 point Dallas chalk in the previous week. Now, the Sooners return home where they can expect the momentum to follow them. In CFB, home favorites in this price range following shutout victories, in which they have scored 50 or more points, have shown resounding success. Adding to that is the motivation of Oklahoma QB Mayfield. Oklahoma has switched to the TTRR Air Raid offense. QB Mayfield is the ideal pilot for this. As a non-scholarship player, Mayfield broke in major college football as a QB FOR today’s very opponent, Texas Tech. Despite showing progress and success, Mayfield was NOT OFFERED A SCHOLARSHIP by current TTRR HC Kingsbury. Mayfield subsequently transferred to Oklahoma where he has been handed the keys to the Air Raid offense. Rest assured, he will be highly motivated to continue his success against his former affiliation. The Red Raiders have the ability to score the football against anyone. The reason to back Oklahoma today is that Mayfield and the Sooners won’t stop scoring on their own ball.
Florida St. (-6) at Georgia Tech 7:00 ET ESPN2
Florida St. visits Georgia Tech for this 7 pm ET kick as televised on ESPN2. This is a matchup of teams who played for the ACC Title in 2 of the previous 3 years. Last year, Georgia Tech lost the title game to Florida St. (37-35), being narrowly outgained 488-465. Yet, their trademark triple-option offense was on display, as they outrushed the Seminoles 331-179.
This year, it is a matchup of teams headed opposite directions. Florida St. continues to roll at 6-0 SU, meaning their only loss in the last 2+ years has come in their Bowl game last year (a 59-20 loss to Oregon). Their record in that timeframe is now 33-1 SU. As if that is not enough for the public to climb on board at this relatively miniscule number, consider the plight of Georgia Tech. After devouring creampuffs, Alcorn and Tulane, to open the season, Tech has gone 0-5 SU ATS losing to Notre Dame, Duke, N. Carolina, Clemson and Pitt. That is a further reason why no one will be looking their way this Saturday evening.
From a fundamental perspective, the public expects Florida St. (with a 114/3.5 defensive front) to shut down the Georgia Tech triple option that is averaging 287/5.6. Note that did not happen last year, when Tech rambled in that playoff game for 331 overland yards!
Florida St. continues to play smart and winning football under 6th year HC Fisher. An example of that is that Florida St. has yet to have a negative turnover margin in a game this season. In fact, their signal caller, Notre Dame transfer QB Golson, has yet to throw an interception on the season. Last week, the Seminoles played a smart game in outgaining Louisville 510-406, converting a (+2) net TO margin to a 41-21 victory. Georgia Tech, in losing its 5th straight game, was dominating a good Pitt defense at the half before clever, first year Panther HC Narduzzi made some key adjustments, which allowed Pitt to prevail (31-28) despite the fact Georgia Tech won the overland battle 376-200.
Again this week, no one but you, me and the LONE RANGER are going to suit up against Florida St. at this price point. That virtually guarantees another ATS winner.
W. Kentucky at LSU (-16-) 7:00 ET ESPNU
W. Kentucky visits LSU for this non-conference game at 7:00 ET Saturday evening as televised on ESPNU. Each of these teams is off to a 4-0 SU start in their respective conference action. But only one of these teams will consider this game to be of higher priority than their opponent! That is a W. Kentucky team from the lesser respected CUSA Conference who will have this contest against an SEC opponent circled on their calendar as the most important remaining game of their season. The Hilltoppers will be solidly favored in their remaining 4 league games vs. ODU, Florida Atlantic, Florida Int’l and Marshall. For LSU, they enter today following a win over a respected Florida team. The last 4 games on their SEC slate are Alabama, Arkansas, Ole Miss and Texas A&M. This game clearly has the lowest priority for LSU 11th year HC Miles.
Last week, LSU squeezed by Florida (35-28). Behind Heisman hopeful RB Fournette, LSU ran for 221 yards (the 6th game in which they have rambled for that amount). Equally impressive is that, in consecutive weeks, LSU has now passed for more than 200 yards. But, their bread and butter is on the ground, where they average 327/7.0. Yes, they will do business against a W. Kentucky defensive front allowing 174/4.5. Last week, W. Kentucky rolled to a 55-28 victory vs. outmanned N. Texas. They recorded 683 yards of offense. It was the 6th consecutive week that the Hilltoppers have gained more than 500 yards and the 6th consecutive week that behind QB Doughty, threw for 400 or more yards. Doughty is now averaging 387 PYPG with a 24/4 ratio. W. Kentucky has a strong history in this role with a 5-1 ATS mark when taking 10 or more and a 5-1 ATS mark against SEC foes. We can all agree that W. Kentucky 2nd year HC Brohm will have some special tricks for the LSU defense.
This play has a lot going for it! It starts with the huge situational advantage for the big dog and includes a strong history in the respective roles of each team, as well as perhaps the most important aspect of this play … value in the betting line. How often do you get to play a team, who is on a 5-game winning streak, 6-1 SU for the season and 5-2 ATS with a positive net AFP of (+76) AND STILL GET TO TAKE THE SAME NUMBER YOU WOULD OPENING WEEK against an opponent who is 2-3 ATS with a (-19) AFP?
Hawaii at Nevada (-7) 4:00 ET
I don’t care how old you are or what kind of shape you are in … this schedule has been a grind for the Hawaii football team. After opening with an outright home dog upset of Big 12 Colorado, Hawaii has spent 5 of the next 7 weeks traveling from the Islands to Ohio St., Wisconsin, Boise, New Mexico and Nevada. Those have been sandwiched between home matchups with Cal-Davis and San Diego St. I’ve lost track of the air miles! But, I know that is not true for the bodies of the Hawaii players. This week, after the Rainbow Warriors gifted New Mexico a (28-27) victory in Albuquerque last week, they now travel to Reno (their 3rd altitude game in 3 weeks). If you don’t think that travel is a problem for Hawaii, consider they are 1-8 ATS on the road, following a road game. Today, they will meet a Nevada team who at 3-4 SU is hungry for success. Last week as road chalk, they lost at Wyoming (21-28). Look for the bounce back today, as the Wolfpack evens their record against a tired Hawaii team who is ready to toss the towel on their season and the career of HC Chow. This has potential blowout written all over it.
Washington State at Arizona (-7) 4:00 PM EST PAC12
Washington State travels to the 3,000 foot altitude of Tucson for this PAC 12 afternoon game in the sun and heat of the mountain desert. It is a far change from the climate of the Palouse in eastern Washington. When these teams met last season at Washington State, Arizona prevailed by a score of 59-37. But that 22 point victory would not prevent them from being on guard, for the last time Washington State traveled her they won outright vs the Wildcats, 24-17, as 11 point dog. Forewarned is forearmed.
This will be a contest of diverse offenses. Washington State is offensively imbalanced; they run the ball an average of only 24 times a game for 87/3.6, while passing the ball an average of 55 times a game for 398 YPG. That success has worked well for the Cougars in going 2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS in the PAC 12 season to date. They have covered against Cal, won outright at Oregon, and beat Oregon State last week, 52-31. Those three pointspread victories have brought a major adjustment to this betting line, as Arizona is now laying 10 points less than what they would have been opening week.
In addition, this line has also been impacted in our favor by Arizona’s two contests, a 56-30 loss on this field to UCLA followed by a 55-17 loss at Stanford. Key commonality in each of those games was they played without their most important offensive member, QB Solomon (concussion). Since the return of Solomon the last two weeks, Arizona has won 44-7 vs Oregon State, outgaining the Beavers 644-249, and 38-31 at Colorado last week, outgaining Colorado 616-467. In each case they have shown exquisite offensive balance, RUNNING AND PASSING for at least 276 YPG in each of those games.
That is a clear reflection of Arizona’s numbers to date, for they average 299 RYPG on 6.6 YPR overland, along with passing for 243YPG. The reason why this balanced offense excels once again this Saturday is that Washington State allows 208 YPG, both RUNNING AND PASSING.
Little doubt that the home standing Wildcats at this value price will have their choice to succeed either running or passing the football. It is a good reason why it will be “death in the desert for the Pullman Puma” in the high desert heat of this Saturday afternoon. Knowing all the above, do I even need to assume that you will be putting the odds in your favor when you join me for my CFB pick of Arizona -7 as my 200 CLUB PLAY OF THE WEEK.
135-76-3 ATS (64%) ATS Joe’s FREE Plays this Season.October 22, 2015 at 11:20 am #9831
NEWSLETTER College Football Prediction From Alan Harris
Take ‘Over’ 76.0 Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 24)
Two teams that have been trending to the over will meet on Saturday afternoon when the Texas Tech Red Raiders travel to take on the Oklahoma Sooners at Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium in Norman, OK. The Red Raiders have posted a 9-2 record to the over in their last 11 road games where they faced a team with a winning record at home and they have gone over the posted total in 20 of their last 28 games following a straight up win.
The Sooners have been an over team as well in the spot we find them in here on Saturday afternoon as they have gone 7-1 to the over in their last eight games played in the month of October and they have an excellent 20-8-1 record to the over in their last 29 Big 12 Conference games. Throw in the fact that these two teams have posted a 4-1 record to the over in their last five head to head meetings in Norman and that’s where we’ll have our play in game that we see turning into an old fashioned Big 12 shoot-out in Oklahoma on Saturday afternoon.October 22, 2015 at 11:22 am #9832
NEWSLETTER College Football Prediction From Jason Sharpe
Take #327 Indiana (+16.5) over Michigan State (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 24)
The Michigan State Spartans had a miracle win last week over their in-state rivals to go to 7-0 overall on the season. It was an emotional victory for MSU who now have to turn around and go up against which should be an angry opponent just a week later. MSU has found a way to get the job done this season, but it’s obvious that this team isn’t as good as everyone expected them to be before this year started.
In fact the Spartans are just 1-6 against the spread in those first 7 games this year. None of their first 7 victories have come by more than 13 points, and we are looking a point spread here of nearly 17 points here in this one. MSU played a very solid defensive game last week and a lot of that had to do with Michigan’s offense being more of a North/South type of offense, an area the Spartans are exceptionally strong at defending.
Their opponent here in this one though is much different as the Indiana Hoosiers are more of an East/West type of offense and that can give the MSU defense fits trying to defend against it. The Hoosiers come in off a heartbreaking loss last week where they let a 25-point lead slip away late and lost their homecoming game on a last second field goal.
It was a demoralizing loss for Indiana, who started the season off with four straight wins but they have now lost their last three coming into this one. I expect a full out effort here from what should be a motivated Hoosiers team looking to redeem itself after last week’s awful loss. Take Indiana plus the points here.October 23, 2015 at 12:03 pm #10034
Big profits from betting these NCAAF small-conference teams
Some of the best betting value in college football is hiding beyond the BCS, in the small conferences. Each week, Sports Profits System Investors will look at the little programs that could help you make big cash this college season:
Total team: North Texas Mean Green
This week: 60 at Marshall Thundering Herd
The North Texas Mean Green are complete disarray at the moment on the defensive side of the ball. So far this season, they have given up an average of 50.2 points per game to their opponents. Marshall, on the other hand, is a team that’s starting to find its groove on the offensive side of the ball. Over the last five games, the Herd have scored an average of 34.4 points per game. They will no doubt have a chance to put up much more in this contest.
We don’t expect the Mean Green offense to contribute a whole lot to this total as the Herd’s defense, especially at home has been quite stout. However, if they can put up double digits in this contest, it’s likely that Marshall will be able to shoulder a bulk of the load themselves.October 23, 2015 at 12:05 pm #10035
If you time these college football bets right, you can beat the bookies
By Steve Merril
Each week during the college football season, Steve Merril looks at the NCAAF odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later and which total to watch as the week plays out.
Spread to bet now
Pittsburgh Panthers (-6.5) at Syracuse Orange
This is a tale of two teams heading in opposite directions. Pittsburgh is quietly 5-1 SU on the season with their lone loss coming by just three points on the road at Iowa, which is 7-0 SU on the year. Syracuse has lost three consecutive games after opening the season at 3-0 SU. Their loss last week came in triple-overtime at Virginia after blowing a double-digit lead in the second half, so Syracuse should be hungover from that game.
Pittsburgh is currently a 6.5-point favorite at the majority of sportsbooks. But according to my power ratings, the line is short. I made the game Pittsburgh -10, so I certainly expect this line to go higher throughout the week. Lay the -6.5 now before the line hits the key number of seven.
Spread to wait on
Clemson Tigers at Miami Hurricanes (+6.5)
Clemson was featured in this space last week, and those who took my advice of waiting to back Boston College survived with a push when Clemson won by 17 points. The same thought process applies to this game. Clemson played much better than expected last week off back-to-back big wins, but that only sets the Tigers up to regress even more, especially with this game being on the road.
Miami is 4-2 SU on the season, including a perfect 3-0 at home. The Hurricanes have only been a home underdog five times over the last four seasons; they went 4-1 ATS in those games. My power ratings make Clemson a 5-point favorite in this game, so there will be value on the Hurricanes when the line hits +7. Wait this game out, and grab Miami +7 as soon as that key number pops up.
Total to watch
Washington State Cougars at Arizona Wildcats (72)
Washington State and Arizona match up extremely well for a high-scoring game. The Cougars’ offensive strength is throwing the football. Washington State averages 399 passing yards per game on 7.2 yards per pass attempt. Arizona’s defense allows 7.4 yards per pass attempt, so Washington State holds the edge.
Arizona’s offensive strength is running the football. The Wildcats average 299 rushing yards per game on a whopping 6.6 yards per rush. Washington State’s defense gives up 209 yards on the ground per game on five yards per rush, so Arizona will run the ball at will on the Cougars. The total is 72 right now, and there’s a very good chance this game lands in the 80’sOctober 23, 2015 at 12:24 pm #10037
Week #8 College Wise Guy Report
Here’s the rundown on games getting sharp action this week in college football. Info is garnered from a variety of sources in Nevada as well as at various outlets stateside and offshore. These are not my opinions, just info to be utilized however you wish.
306 Appalachian State has been somewhat popular with both the Pros and the Joes.
320 UMass has drawn some sharp play this week, while the public is bombing the favorite.
346 USC is getting some wise guy action. This looks like a sharp/square battleground game where the public actually prefers the dog, which is usually not the case.
350 Alabama is quietly drawing some pro action. Not a huge play, but the smart guys definitely seem to be liking that side right now.
354 Ole Miss is now proving attractive to the sharps, and the Rebels drew some substantial dollars on Wednesday.
367 Colorado has been the sharp side as the Buffaloes make the trip to Oregon State.
372 Maryland is on the sharp list, which seems to be surprising to the books I talked with.
377 Boston College is back on the wise guy list, not the first time the Eagles have been attractive as dogs to the smarts.
Shorter than usual list this week, as the action has been a bit more of a trickle than a flood. I’ll try to update in the next 24 hours if that changes.October 23, 2015 at 12:42 pm #10045
Big Ten Report – Week 8
Indiana (4-3) at Michigan State (7-0) – ABC, 3:30 p.m. ET
Current Line: Spartans -16.5
Opening Line: Spartans -16.5
The Indiana faithful were giddy a few weeks ago after starting the season 4-0. Only two more wins and they were heading to a bowl game for the first time since 2007. It would be just their 2nd bowl appearance since 199#! Oops. Now the Hoosiers sit at 4-3 after losing their first 3 conference games. And now they get to face MSU on the road before a much needed bye. After that the Hoosiers face Iowa & Michigan so they are staring at an 0-6 start in the Big Ten barring a big upset. It very well could come down to IU having to win their last 2 games of the season at Maryland & at Purdue in order to be bowl eligible. It could have been much different had they simply held onto their huge lead last week at home vs Rutgers. IU led 52-27 with just 2:30 remaining in the 3rd quarter and were getting ready to celebrate their 5th win of the season. The Knights scored the final 28 points of the game including a FG with no time left to pull out an incredible 55-52 win. IU became the first team in college football this year to blow a 25 point or more lead and lose (121-1 record).
MSU was obviously on the other end of the spectrum as they were almost assuredly going to take their first loss of the season when the “Miracle in Michigan” happened. A block punt and return TD with no time left gave MSU the win. Those two results make this a very interesting (and difficult) game to handicap. Sparty is bound to have a letdown after winning a rivalry game in that fashion. Not only that, MSU is 0-4 ATS at home losing to the number by nearly 50 points! However, how does Indiana get back off the deck after the way they lost last week? We thought this line might come out a bit higher than it did.
Remember just a few weeks ago Ohio State was a 22-point favorite at Indiana which means they would have been right around -30 at home. That’s 2 full TD’s higher than this number is currently. IU QB Sudfeld was back in the line up last week after missing the week before with an ankle injury. However, their top RB Howard has not been on the field since the Ohio State game (ankle) and they’re hoping he returns on Saturday. Offense may not matter if Indiana’s defense continues on their terrible run. They’ve given up more points (246) and more yardage (3,529) than any other team in the league. After last week’s results you might have to have a doctorate in psychology to figure this one out.
Northwestern (5-2) at Nebraska (3-4) – ESPN2, 12:00 p.m. ET
Current Line: Cornhuskers -7.5
Opening Line: Cornhuskers -6.5
Here we have possibly the best 3-4 team in the nation against a 5-2 team that is falling fast. That’s why the team with the losing record is favored by more than a TD. Nebraska’s 4 losses have been well documented. All came basically on the final play of the game and all were against solid teams (Wisconsin, Miami FL, BYU, and Illinois). The Huskers are literally only a few plays away from potentially being a perfect 7-0. We weren’t sure how Nebby would respond after losing ANOTHER back breaker a week earlier vs Wisconsin. They responded well dominating Minnesota on the road for much of the game. Once the Huskers took a 24-14 win with 3:00 minutes left in the first half, they led by double digits from that point on (48-25 final). Offensively they put up 7.1 YPP while allowing Minnesota just 5.5 YPP. That’s been the tale of the tape for this team – good offensively but not so much on defense.
They may not need much defense to contain this reeling Northwestern offense. The Cats have lost 2 straight games to Michigan & Iowa after starting the year 5-0. Their offense has really looked poor in those 2 outings scoring only 10 total points while getting outgained by over 500 yards! In those 2 games combined the Cats gained 366 total yards on 127 offensive plays – just 2.8 YPP. On the season, NW is averaging only 4.4 YPP, everyone else in the Big Ten except Purdue is averaging at least 5.0 YPP. We’re not sure it will be much better here as they are not equipped to take advantage of Nebraska’s defensive weakness as the Huskers are last in the league in pass defense. However, NW is also dead last in the Big Ten in passing yards per game.
Because of the lack of offensive production, the NW defense looks like they are starting to wear down. Entering their game vs Michigan, the Wildcats led the nation allowing just 7 PPG and they had allowed only 3 offensive TD’s in their first 5 games. It has all come crashing down as they allowed 78 points in their last 2 games (after giving up 35 total in their first 5) on almost 900 yards of offense. The Cats were throttled at home vs Nebraska last year 38-17 and have lost 3 of their 4 meetings with the Huskers. Their last visit to Lincoln in 2013, NW lost 27-24 on a Husker Hail Mary TD pass to end the game, a feeling Nebraska knows all too well.
Wisconsin (5-2) at Illinois (4-2) – Big Ten, 3:30 p.m. ET
Current Line: Badgers -6.5
Opening Line: Badgers -7
Illinois comes into this game off a bye week. Wisconsin enters off a 24-7 win at home vs Purdue. The Badgers rolled up 418 yards of total offense while holding the Boilers to just 191. The Badger offense continues to be “pass happy” as QB Joel Stave threw for 322 yards for the second consecutive game. Wisky hopes to be more run oriented moving forward as starter Corey Clement is getting closer & closer to returning. We’d expect him to get some carries this week although reports from down the street are he isn’t yet able to open up full speed after his hernia surgery. Wisconsin continues to be one of the top defenses in the nation holding opponents to 272 YPG (7th nationally) and just 11 PPG (3rd nationally). Since their season opener when they allowed 35 points to Alabama, Wisconsin’s defense has given up just 5 offensive TD’s in 6 games.
Purdue head coach Darrell Hazell called it “the best defense we’d faced” and Purdue has already played Michigan State & Virginia Tech. Speaking of defense, Illinois has improved as much as anyone in the nation on that side of the ball. The Illini are allowing 332 YPG which is good for 30th in the country. Last season this Illinois team gave up 463 YPG which was 112th in the country. The Illini are 4-2 but they are “this close” to being 2-4 on the season. After two easy wins to start the season over Kent & Western Illinois, U of I has lost at the hands of Iowa & UNC, while barely getting by Middle Tennessee State (by 2 points) & Nebraska (by 1 point). MTSU missed a game winning field goal as time expired while the Huskers actually led Illinois 13-7 late and botched the clock management giving up the lead with just 10 seconds remaining in the game. Wisconsin has dominated this series winning 9 of the last 10 games with 8 of those wins coming by at least 10 points.
Penn State (5-2) at Maryland (2-4) from Baltimore – ESPN, 3:30 p.m. ET
Current Line: Nittany Lions -6.5
Opening Line: Nittany Lions -8
Maryland takes the field for the first time minus former head coach Randy Edsall who was fired after their loss at Ohio State two weeks ago. The Terps had last week off to gather themselves and get ready for this game being played in Baltimore. The interim head coach is offensive coordinator Mike Locksley, who has some head coaching experience at New Mexico where he had a 2-26 record before being fired in 2011. Since their last win vs USF back on September 19th, the Terps have lost 3 straight to WVU, Michigan, & Ohio State and have been outscored 122-28 in those 3 games. The problem with Maryland continues to be turnovers. They are -11 turnovers on the season (last in college football) and -1.83 turnovers per game (last in college football).
Penn State is off a huge game at Ohio State last weekend and they stuck around for a while. The Nits were within striking distance down 21-10 entering the 4th quarter and OSU closed it out with 17 points in the final stanza for a 38-10 win. After attempting 39 passes a week earlier in a win over Indiana, PSU QB Hackenberg only put the ball in the air 13 times at Ohio State completing 7. They tried to shorten the game by running the ball a lot (40 times) and it kept them close until the 4th quarter. The two teams (PSU & OSU) ran the ball 90 times in the game while attempting only 32 passes. These two have met just one time since 1993 and that was last season. Maryland pulled the 20-19 upset in Happy Valley as 3.5 point underdogs. The game featured very little offense as the two teams combined for only 413 total yards (just 75 yards rushing).
Ohio State (7-0) at Rutgers (3-3) – ABC, 8:00 p.m. ET
Current Line: Buckeyes -21
Opening Line: Buckeyes -21
Well they did it. Ohio State, despite winning 22 straight games, has made a switch at QB. JT Barrett will take over for Cardale Jones at Rutgers on Saturday night. The Bucks simply look better and more efficient on offense with Barrett at the helm and the numbers bear that out. This year with Jones at QB the Buckeyes averaged 5.8 YPP and with Barrett that climbs to 7.1 YPP. Jones has led OSU to TD’s on just 23% of his offensive drives while Barrett has done so in 39% of his drives. We think Ohio State will start to look much better on offense after this switch. And while many consider the Buckeyes to be “struggling” this year, let’s keep that in perspective. Their average winning margin is 21 points per game and they have outgained every opponent by at least 100 yards.
Rutgers comes home with some momentum after rallying from 25 points down at Indiana for a 55-52 win last Saturday. Their most recent home game the Knights gave Michigan State all they could handle losing 31-24 with Sparty scoring the game winning TD with just 43 seconds remaining in the game. Rutgers top offensive weapon, WR Carroo, injured his ankle last week and was not practicing as of Tuesday. His status is very important in this one. He did not practice on Wednesday so his status is still up in the air. Since returning from his suspension, Carroo has 14 catches for 191 yards and 6 TD’s in just TWO games. These two have met just one time since 1980 and that was last season. OSU dominated in a 56-24 win in Columbus. The Buckeyes have been a road favorite of -21 or more 25 times since 1980. They are 25-0 SU in those games and 16-9 ATS. Rutgers has not been a home underdog of this magnitude (+21 or more) since the 2003 season.October 23, 2015 at 12:44 pm #10046
Pac-12 Report – Week 8
By Joe Williams
ACC | Big 12
2015 PAC-12 STANDINGS
Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Arizona 5-2 2-2 4-3 6-1
Arizona State 4-3 2-2 2-5 2-5
California 5-1 2-1 4-2 2-4
Colorado 3-4 0-3 1-5-1 3-4
Oregon 4-3 2-2 3-4 4-3
Oregon State 2-4 0-3 1-5 3-3
Southern California 3-3 1-2 3-3 3-3
Stanford 5-1 4-0 5-1 4-2
UCLA 4-2 1-2 2-3-1 2-4
Utah 6-0 3-0 4-2 3-3
Washington 3-3 1-2 4-2 1-5
Washington State 4-2 2-1 4-2 3-3
California at UCLA (Thurs. – ESPN, 9:00 p.m. ET)
UCLA will play host to the high-octane California offense, and the Bruins can ill-afford another loss if they hope to have any short of a conference championship. A third loss will more than likely eliminate them in the south, if they’re not already done with a red-hot Utah team leading the way. Speaking of red hot, Cal is 7-1 ATS in their past eight road games and 5-2 ATS in their past seven against a team with a winning record. Their kryptonite has been grass, as they’re just 4-12 ATS in their past 16 games on the natural surface. UCLA is a dismal 1-3-1 ATS in their past five at the Rose Bowl, and an ice-cold 5-22 ATS in their past 27 games played in the month of October. While the underdog is 13-5-1 ATS in the past 19 in this series, the home team is 5-0 ATS in the past five and Cal is 1-5-1 ATS in its past seven trips to UCLA. Total bettors might like the under which has cashed in four of the past five, and five of the past seven at the Rose Bowl. The under is also 7-1-1 in UCLA’s past snine home games, and 15-7 in the past 22 for Cal on grass.
Washington State at Arizona (Pac-12 Network, 4:00 p.m. ET)
Washington State looked to be dead in the water after a convincing loss to FCS Portland State in their opener, but they have rebounded with key wins at Oregon and home to Oregon State in the past two weeks to move to within two games of bowl eligibility. More important, the Cougs have turned into cover kings, going 3-0 ATS in the past three games and 4-1 ATS in the past five. Arizona has picked itself off the mat after back-to-back loss to UCLA and at Stanford, thrashing Oregon State and taking care of business at Colorado last weekend. The most impressive thing for the Wildcats is their 6-1 ‘over’ record this season. The Wildcats, favored by 7 1/2 at most shops, are just 3-8 ATS in their past 11 at home and 8-17 ATS in their past 25 against a team with a winning overall record. However, while the underdog is 10-3 ATS in the past 13 meetings, WaZu is just 3-7 ATS in the past 10 meetings and 1-4 ATS in their past five forays into Tucson.
Utah at Southern California (FOX, 7:30 p.m. ET)
There might be quite a few eyebrows raised at the fact USC is favored in this game by a field goal or more at most shops, especially since the Trojans are unranked and the Utes are a Top 10 team. Utah is also 5-2 ATS in the past seven overall, and an impressive 8-1 ATS in their past nine on the road. Conversely, USC is 2-5 ATS in their past seven against a team with a winning record, including last week’s loss at Notre Dame, and the Trojans are 3-9 ATS in their past 12 at home against a team with a winning road record. Perhaps the lack of respect for Utah stems from the fact the home team has covered four straight in this series. Total bettors might want to look at the under, which is 6-1 in USC’s past seven conference games and 12-4-1 in their past 17 against teams with a winning overall record. The under is 11-5-1 in Utah’s past 17 overall, and 6-1 in their past seven on grass.
Colorado at Oregon State (Pac-12 Network, 10:30 p.m.)
Colorado has been coming oh-so-close to snapping an FBS-leading 14-game conference losing streak, but they keep ending up just short. They head to Corvallis to take on a shaky Beavers team which is reeling, dropping three in a row and going 1-5 ATS in their six games overall. Oregon State opened favored by three, mainly due to Colorado’s ineptitude within the conference, but the line has dropped to two. The Buffs are 0-4-1 ATS in their past five games overall, and the Beavs aren’t much better at 1-7 ATS in their past eight, including 0-5 ATS within conference. Colorado has a strong offense, posting 23 or more points in each of their past six games, but if they’re going to snap their conference losing skid they need the defense to contribute.
Washington at Stanford (ESPN, 10:30 p.m.)
Stanford looked sluggish in their 16-6 opening game loss at Northwestern, but they have bounced back in a big way and now have title hopes and an outside chance at a spot in the four-team playoff if they can continue its winning ways. Washington is just looking to keep its head above water, recording a stunning road win at USC two weeks ago and then slipping at home to Oregon last weekend. The Huskies have some questions at quarterback, as Jake Browning is dealing with a right shoulder injury suffered against the Ducks. If he cannot go, Jeff Lindquist or K.J. Carta-Samuels would get the nod, and that changes the face of this game completely. Washington is 5-1 ATS in their past six on the road, and 7-3 ATS in their past 10 overall. Stanford has covered in six consecutive Pac-12 tilts, and they’re a robust 36-16 ATS in their past 52 at home. If you’re looking to the total, the under is 8-3 in the past 11 meetings and might be attractive if Washington has to rely on a backup QB.
Pac-12 teams on a bye
OregonOctober 23, 2015 at 12:45 pm #10047
Big 12 Report – Week 8
By Joe Williams
ACC | Pac-12
2015 BIG 12 STANDINGS
Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Baylor 6-0 3-0 4-1 5-1
Iowa State 2-4 1-2 2-3-1 1-4-1
Kansas 0-6 0-3 2-4 2-4
Kansas State 3-3 0-3 3-3 4-2
Oklahoma 5-1 2-1 4-2 3-3
Oklahoma State 6-0 3-0 3-3 2-4
Texas 2-4 1-2 2-4 2-4
Texas Christian 7-0 4-0 3-4 4-3
Texas Tech 5-2 2-2 4-2-1 5-2
West Virginia 3-3 0-3 2-4 2-4
Iowa State at Baylor (ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET)
The offensive juggernaut that is Baylor will be home to Iowa State looking to keep their playoff aspirations on track. As a 36-point favorite they’re expected to do that, and then some, especially with Iowa State having dropped 13 in a row against ranked opponents and Baylor holding the longest home winning streak in FBS at 19 games. I-State has not had a lot of success against the number lately, going 6-17-3 ATS in their past 26 against ranked foes and 2-8-1 ATS in their past 11 games overall. They’re also just 1-7 ATS in their past eight conference tilts and 0-3-1 ATS in their past four road outings. Baylor has crushed it despite some big numbers, going 26-6 ATS in their past 32 at home and 20-6-1 ATS in the past 27 against teams with a losing record. They’re also 18-7-1 ATS in the past 26 conference tilts. The home squad is also 10-1-1 ATS in the past 12 meetings, with I-State going 2-5-1 ATS in the past eight. And the Cycs are 0-6 ATS in their past six trips to Waco.
Kansas State at Texas (FOX Sports 1, 12:00 p.m. ET)
A couple of weeks ago it might have been surprising to see the Longhorns favored by nearly a touchdown in this game. However, after K-State was undressed at home by Oklahoma 55-0 last week, the same Sooners squad the Longhorns upended two weeks ago in the Red River Rivalry game, it isn’t actually that shocking to see Texas favored. The Wildcats have a ton of injuries on the defensive side of the ball, and could be without four key defensive players in this one, as S Dante Barnett, LB Elijah Lee, CB Danzel McDaniel and S Kaleb Prewett are each question marks. Texas is expected to welcome back special teams standout Daje Johnson (concussion), a player who leads the Big 12 in punt return yardage at 17.6 yards per return. He also leads the team with 14 grabs for 201 yards, and could punish a beleaguered Wildcats secondary. The underdog is 7-3 ATS in the past 10 meetings in this series, and the Wildcats are 7-1 ATS in the past eight, including 4-1 ATS in their past five trips to Austin. However, the home team has also chased in four of the past five.
Texas Tech at Oklahoma (ABC/ESPN2, 3:30 p.m. ET)
The Red Raiders stroll into Norman looking to pull the upset, and the Sooners have a quarterback in Baker Mayfield who will face a Texas Tech he once led. In 2013 Mayfield was a walk-on and the Freshman of the Year in the Big 12 with the Red Raiders, but he left the team to join Oklahoma. Red Raiders head coach Kliff Kingsbury refused to grant Mayfield a release and he was forced to sit out the 2014 season despite a court case trying to get the NCAA to overturn the ruling. It certainly puts the focus on the OU quarterback for this one, but he isn’t the only story. Red Raiders QB Patrick Mahomes II has been tearing it up in Lubbock, and Texas Tech leads the Big 12 in passing offense, while Oklahoma leads the conference in passing defense. Texas Tech has covered five of the past seven inside the conference, and they’re 7-2-1 ATS in the past 10 overall. However, they’re just 1-5 ATS in their past six road games against a team with a winning home record and 3-7 ATS in their past 10 overall on the road. Oklahoma hasn’t had much success following up covers, going 1-5 ATS in their next six following an ATS win. They’re also 0-4 ATS in their past four at home against a team with a winning road mark. The over might be the play, as it has cashed in four straight meetings in the series, and four of the past five in Norman.
Kansas at Oklahoma State (FOX Sports 1, 3:30 p.m.)
Kansas is a horrible team, but they actually stepped up and played Texas Tech tough in a 30-20 loss, easily covering a giant spread. But that was at home, and playing on the road is an entirely different story for KU. The Jayhawks are 8-24-1 ATS in their past 33 games on the road, and 1-4 ATS in their past five Big 12 tilts. OK State is 4-1 ATS in their past five conference battles, and they’re 9-3 ATS in their past 12 against Kansas while going 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings in Stillwater. The home team has covered four straight in the series while the favorite is 8-3 ATS in the past 11 battles. The under could be the play here, going 4-1 in the past five meetings. The under has also trended favorably for both squads, going 4-0 in the past four for Kansas, and 13-3 in their past 16 road games. The under is 5-2 in the past seven for OK State, and 5-2 in their past seven at Boone Pickens Field. The public has bought into those trends, driving the opening number of 62 1/2 down to 58 1/2 as of Thursday afternoon.
Big 12 teams on a bye
West VirginiaOctober 23, 2015 at 12:47 pm #10048
ACC Report – Week 8
By Joe Williams
Big 12 | Pac-12
2015 ACC STANDINGS
Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Boston College 3-4 0-4 3-3-1 2-5
Clemson 6-0 3-0 3-3 3-3
Duke 5-1 2-0 4-2 0-6
Florida State 6-0 4-0 3-3 2-4
Georgia Tech 2-5 0-4 2-5 5-2
Louisville 2-4 1-2 4-2 2-3-1
Miami (Fla.) 4-2 1-1 4-2 2-4
North Carolina 5-1 2-0 4-2 3-3
North Carolina State 4-2 0-2 4-2 2-4
Pittsburgh 5-1 3-0 4-2 3-2-1
Syracuse 3-3 1-1 4-2 6-0
Virginia 2-4 1-1 2-3-1 4-1-1
Virginia Tech 3-4 1-2 3-4 4-3
Wake Forest 3-4 1-3 3-4 3-3-1
Clemson at Miami-Florida (ABC, 12:00 p.m. ET)
The Tigers opened as a 5 1/2-point favorite, and the line has move up to 6 1/2 as of Wednesday morning. The total has also moved from an opening line of 54 1/2 to as much as 56 or 56 1/2 depending on the shop. It’s a curious move considering the ‘under’ has been the overwhelming trend for each side. The under is 8-0 in Clemson’s past eight against a team with a winning record, and 4-1 in their past five road games. The under is also 9-3 in their past 12 games on grass, and 11-4 in their past 15 overall. In addition, the under is 12-4 in their past 16 road games against a team with a winning home mark. For Miami, the under is 9-1 in their past 10 games in the ACC, 9-3 in their past 12 games overall and a perfect 5-0 in their past five against a team with a winning overall mark. Clemson has failed to cover in seven of their past eight conference games while Miami has covered each of their two ACC games to date. These teams are meeting for the first time since Oct. 2, 2010, when the Hurricanes knocked off the Tigers 30-21 in Death Valley.
North Carolina State at Wake Forest (ESPN3, 12:00 p.m. ET)
N.C. State hits the road for Wake, a short jaunt from the Triangle to the Triad of North Carolina. The Wolfpack, favored by 10 points, have had a terrible time with the Demon Deacons over the years, going 0-9 ATS in their past nine trips to Winston-Salem. The home team has cashed in 14 of the past 16 meetings in this series, too. However, N.C. State is 6-1 ATS in their past seven road games, and 7-2 ATS in the past nine games overall. They are just 2-5 ATS in their past seven against teams with a losing record, however. The Deacs are 5-1 ATS in their past six at home, and 5-2 ATS in their past seven following a straight-up loss. The under has been the trend for both sides, going 4-1 in N.C. State’s past five, and 6-2-1 in their past nine ACC contests. For Wake, the under is 11-3-1 in their past 15 home games, and 3-1-1 in their past five overall. The under is also 5-0 in Wake’s past five at home against a team with a winning road mark.
Pittsburgh at Syracuse (ESPNU, 12:00p.m. ET)
The surprising Panthers roll into Syracuse for a battle against the Orange, harkening back to the days of the Big East. Pitt has rolled in this series in recent years, at least against the number, going 5-0-1 ATS in the past six meetings, and 3-1-1 ATS in the past five trips to Syracuse. The favorite is also 4-1-1 ATS in the past six overall. The Panthers have been equally good against the spread lately, going 5-0 ATS in their past five road trips and 4-1 ATS in the past five inside the ACC. They’re also 4-1 ATS in the past five overall. Syracuse is coming off a disappointing multi-OT loss at Virginia last weekend, and they’re just 1-5 ATS in their past six following a straight-up loss. One trend to watch closely is the over, which is 8-3-1 in Pittsburgh’s past 12 overall, and 5-2-1 in their past eight in the ACC. The over is also a perfect 6-0 in Syracuse’s six games this season, although it needed help last week with overtimes. And the over is 4-0 in the past four at the Carrier Dome.
Boston College at Louisville (ESPN3, 12:30 p.m.)
Boston College limps into this one, coming off a sound beating in Clemson last weekend. The Eagles defense was trampled for 34 points after allowing a total of 33 points in their first six games. However, the competition was obviously much better, too. The Eagles still earned a backdoor cover with a late touchdown, and they’re now 2-1-1 ATS over the past four. Louisville had a modest two-game win streak halted at Florida State, but they’re still a respectable 3-1 ATS over the past four games. This line opened at nine and quickly moved down to 7 1/2, and the total hovers around 37. The under had been the play for BC and their staunch defense until last weekend, and the under is 3-1 in Louisville’s past four until an over last week, too.
Virginia at North Carolina (ESPN3, 3:30 p.m.)
UVA hits the road for Chapel Hill to face UNC in a key battle for the Heels. The Cavs picked up a triple-overtime win against Syracuse, but they haven’t had a ton of success following success with more success. The Cavs are 0-3-1 ATS in their past four games following a straight-up win. The Heels have covered four of their past five ACC games, four of the past five overall and they’re 10-4 ATS in their past 14 after a cover. The favorite has also cashed in four of the past five meetings in this series, with the Cavaliers going 0-5 ATS in the past five clashes. The over might be worth a look, as it is 4-0-1 in UVA’s past five overall, although the under is 4-1-1 in the past six road games and 8-2-1 in their past 11 ACC games. The over is 8-3 in UNC’s past 11 against a losing team, although the under is 4-1-1 in the past six meetings at Kenan and 7-2-1 in the past 10 meetings overall in this series.
Duke at Virginia Tech (ESPNU, 3:30 p.m.)
In previous years a Virginia Tech win would have been expected, but these are different Blue Devils over the past couple of seasons. They play hard, have had losses to personnel and actually have reloaded. This line opened with Va. Tech favored by 3 1/2, but has moved down to 2 1/2. The Blue Devils have had two weeks to prepare for the game, and they are 5-0 ATS in their past five road games. The Blue Devils are also 9-2 ATS in their past 11 against a team with a losing record, and 9-1-1 ATS in their past 11 road games against a team with a losing home mark. Duke is 13-5 ATS in the past 18 ACC games, too. For the Hokies, they have a 4-9 ATS mark in their past 13 ACC games. The underdog is also 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings. The under is the dominant trend for both sides, going 11-2 in Duke’s past 13 ACC games, and 17-5 in their past 22 games overall. The under is 10-2 in Virginia Tech’s past 12 ACC games, although the over is 5-2 in their past seven at Lane Stadium. The head-to-head trend has the under 4-1 in the past five in Blacksburg, and 4-1 in the past five meetings overall.
Florida State at Georgia Tech (ESPN2, 7:00 p.m.)
Florida State takes its show on the road to face a very disappointing Georgia Tech side. The Yellow Jackets opened the season with two convincing wins against lesser opponents, and followed it up with a five-game losing skid that doesn’t look to stop when the Seminoles pay a visit. FSU opened as a 5 1/2-point favorite, and that number quickly jumped to 6 1/2. The number seems rather low despite the fact FSU is 0-4-2 ATS in the past six meetings against the Ramblin’ Wreck, and 0-3-2 ATS in their past five trips to Atlanta. And while the underdog is 4-0-2 ATS in the past six meetings, sometimes trends are made to be broken. These two teams are going in opposite directions, and Georgia Tech has not really shown they’re making strides to stem the tide of losing.
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